Core Viewpoint - Tongwei Co., Ltd. has shown a mixed performance in stock price and financial results, with a notable decline in revenue and net profit for the first nine months of 2025, while maintaining a significant market presence in the photovoltaic and feed industries [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of October 31, 2025, Tongwei Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 646.00 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.38%, and a net profit of -52.70 billion yuan, down 32.64% compared to the previous year [2]. - The company's stock price increased by 5.65% year-to-date, with a recent 2.10% rise on December 1, 2025, reaching 23.36 yuan per share [1]. Shareholder Information - The number of shareholders increased to 252,000, a rise of 1.12%, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 1.11% to 17,865 shares [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 251.92 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 169.23 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3]. Market Position - Tongwei Co., Ltd. operates primarily in the photovoltaic sector, with 65.86% of its revenue coming from solar-related products and 32.89% from feed and food products [1]. - The company is categorized under the power equipment and photovoltaic equipment industry, with significant involvement in multi-crystalline silicon and HJT battery sectors [1]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, major institutional shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 136 million shares, and various ETFs, all of which have seen a reduction in their holdings compared to the previous period [3].

Core Viewpoint - The global photovoltaic industry is experiencing rapid expansion, but currently faces overcapacity, subsidy reductions, and trade barriers, leading to industry-wide losses. A recovery is anticipated by 2025, but third-quarter financial reports do not confirm a reversal yet. Despite this, A-share related stocks have shown more gains than losses in 2025 [5][11]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry is projected to reach 2000 GW of installed capacity by 2030, surpassing thermal power as the largest energy source [5]. - The three major companies in the industry—LONGi Green Energy, Tongwei, and TCL Zhonghuan—are navigating through challenging times, with varying strategies of integration and specialization [6][8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2022, revenues for Tongwei, LONGi, and TCL Zhonghuan were 142.2 billion, 129 billion, and 67 billion respectively. By 2023, revenues showed slight declines, with LONGi being the most resilient [8][9]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenues continued to decline, but the rate of decline is expected to stabilize [11]. - In terms of net profit, TCL Zhonghuan faced the most significant drop, with a net profit of only 25.7 billion in 2023, down from 64.8 billion in 2022 [12][14]. Group 3: Business Strategies - LONGi has adopted an integrated strategy, significantly increasing its downstream component and battery business, which now constitutes a larger portion of its revenue compared to upstream silicon products [28][30]. - TCL Zhonghuan has been more reluctant to embrace integration, focusing primarily on its silicon wafer business, which has led to substantial losses in recent years [19][26]. - Tongwei has successfully expanded into the component business, achieving significant revenue growth, but still faces challenges in maintaining profitability due to declining prices [42][46]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is divided into five segments: silicon materials, silicon wafers, cells, modules, and power generation. The silicon wafer segment has the highest technical barriers [18]. - The debate between integration and specialization continues, with evidence suggesting that integrated companies may have better resilience during downturns compared to specialized firms [50].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on the wind power, lithium battery, and energy storage sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment due to improving supply-demand dynamics and government support [1][5][15]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the "anti-involution" initiative led by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), which aims to promote healthy competition and stabilize prices in the industry [5][15]. - The lithium battery sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations of significant growth driven by increasing demand and government support for rational competition [15][16]. - The wind power sector is projected to experience a recovery in profitability, supported by stable bidding prices and a favorable demand outlook for offshore wind projects [1][6][13]. Summary by Relevant Sections Wind Power - The average bidding price for land-based wind turbines remains high, with expectations for continued profitability recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][6]. - Shanghai's government is accelerating the construction of offshore wind power demonstration projects, indicating a strong demand outlook for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [13][14]. Lithium Batteries - The MIIT held a meeting to discuss the lithium battery industry, emphasizing the need for self-discipline and the rejection of irrational competition [15][16]. - The report maintains a positive view on the midstream material segment of the lithium battery supply chain, anticipating a favorable market environment [15]. Energy Storage - Fluence's Q4 2025 earnings call indicated a positive trend, with AI-driven power shortages translating into substantial energy storage orders [18][19]. - The report highlights the growing demand for energy storage solutions, particularly in data centers, driven by the need for flexible interconnection and backup power solutions [19]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The NDRC has reiterated the importance of hydrogen energy in enhancing power system regulation, with new policies expected to support the development of green hydrogen projects [20][21]. - The report notes that Inner Mongolia's green hydrogen policy has improved project economics, allowing for excess electricity to be sold to the grid, which is crucial for project viability [21][22]. Photovoltaics - In October, new photovoltaic installations increased by 30% month-on-month to 12.6 GW, with expectations for total installations to reach 280-300 GW for the year [23][25]. - The report suggests bottom-fishing opportunities in the photovoltaic sector, particularly in companies involved in high-efficiency modules and innovative technologies [25][24]. Grid and Power Equipment - The report highlights significant bidding activity in the ultra-high voltage (UHV) equipment sector, with a record 16.5 billion yuan in contracts awarded [29][30]. - The report anticipates continued high demand for UHV projects, with several key projects expected to be approved in 2026 [30][31].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the photovoltaic industry is entering a continuous capacity clearance cycle, driven by anti-involution policies and market dynamics, which will gradually improve the performance of existing photovoltaic companies [4][22][50] - The investment recommendation maintains a "stronger than market" rating, suggesting a focus on leading companies in niche sectors such as energy storage inverters, polysilicon materials, photovoltaic glass, and integrated component manufacturers [4][36][50] Group 1: 2025 Review and 2026 Outlook - In 2025, the photovoltaic sector saw a significant increase in installed capacity, with a total of 240.27 GW added, representing a year-on-year growth of 64.73% [4][36] - The report notes a bifurcation in stock performance, with the photovoltaic industry index yielding a return of 21.53% from January to November 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which returned 13.18% [14][20] - The outlook for 2026 indicates a slowdown in new installations, with expectations of stable demand and a focus on improving the quality of the industry through capacity reduction and consolidation [4][36][50] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the energy storage inverter sector will benefit from a global upturn in energy storage demand, with significant growth expected in the market [4][36] - For polysilicon, the report highlights that anti-involution measures are likely to reverse the industry's challenges, recommending a focus on leading companies with performance elasticity [5][9] - The photovoltaic glass market is entering a phase of capacity optimization, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies that possess cost advantages [9][10] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the traditional markets in Europe and the U.S. are experiencing sluggish growth, while demand in Asia-Pacific and Africa remains robust, with imports of components continuing to grow rapidly [4][41][42] - The report outlines that the U.S. market is facing challenges due to the expiration of investment tax credits, which is expected to impact new installations negatively [45][46] - In contrast, the Middle East and Africa are emerging as hotspots for photovoltaic demand due to their energy transition needs and favorable market conditions [41][47]

Core Viewpoint - Tongwei Solar (Chengdu) Co., Ltd. has obtained a patent for "Heterojunction Solar Cells and Their Preparation Methods, Photovoltaic Modules," indicating a significant advancement in solar technology [1] Company Overview - Tongwei Solar (Chengdu) Co., Ltd. was established in 2011 and is located in Chengdu, primarily engaged in the production and supply of electricity and heat [1] - The company has a registered capital of 5.4 billion RMB [1] Patent and Innovation - The patent granted has the authorization announcement number CN120813110B, with an application date of September 2025, showcasing the company's commitment to innovation in solar energy [1] Business Activities - Tongwei Solar (Chengdu) has participated in 375 bidding projects, indicating active engagement in the market [1] - The company holds 1,256 patent records and has 14 trademark information entries, reflecting its focus on intellectual property [1] - Additionally, the company possesses 856 administrative licenses, which may facilitate its operational capabilities [1]

Core Insights - The photovoltaic equipment sector experienced a slight increase of 0.42% on November 26, with Maiwei Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3864.18, down 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12907.83, up 1.02% [1] Stock Performance - Maiwei Co., Ltd. (300751) saw a significant rise of 12.75%, closing at 106.00 with a trading volume of 138,200 shares and a transaction value of 1.42 billion [1] - Other notable performers included Weidao Nano (688147) with a 4.97% increase, closing at 58.26, and Jing Sheng Mechanical Electrical (300316) with a 4.34% increase, closing at 36.09 [1] - Conversely, Shangneng Electric (300827) experienced a decline of 5.36%, closing at 36.21, with a trading volume of 495,200 shares [2] Capital Flow - The photovoltaic equipment sector saw a net inflow of 511 million in main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 58.98 million [2][3] - Major stocks like Yangguang Electric (300274) had a net inflow of 1.25 billion from main funds, while Jing Sheng Mechanical Electrical (300316) had a net inflow of 152 million [3] - Retail investors showed a net outflow in several stocks, including Maiwei Co., Ltd. (300751) with a net outflow of 97.78 million [3]

Core Insights - The modern livestock industry is increasingly demanding diverse animal nutrition, leading to higher requirements for feed performance, which traditional standardized products can no longer meet [1] - Additive premix feed fills the market gap with flexible formulation design and precise nutritional supply, improving feed utilization, reducing farming costs, and enhancing animal growth performance and product quality [1] Industry Overview - Additive premix feed consists of two or more nutritional feed additives mixed with carriers or diluents, including compound premix feed, trace element premix feed, and vitamin premix feed [3] - The production of additive premix feed in China has experienced fluctuations, with production reaching 542.6 million tons in 2019, a decrease of 16.9% year-on-year, and recovering to 594.5 million tons in 2020, a growth of 9.6% [1][8] - In 2021, production increased to 663.1 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 11.54%, but fell to 652.2 million tons in 2022 due to various factors, including the pandemic [1][8] - In 2023, production rebounded to 709.1 million tons, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, but is expected to decline to 695.1 million tons in 2024 due to adjustments in pig production capacity and reduced livestock inventory [1][8] Industry Policies - The industry has seen a series of supportive and regulatory policies aimed at promoting standardization and efficiency, such as the 2024 "Green Sword Protect Grain Safety" enforcement action focusing on illegal production and sales of feed additives [4][6] - The 2025 Feed Quality Safety Supervision Work Plan emphasizes the inspection of banned substances and illegal additives in various feed products, including premix feeds [4][6] Industry Chain - The upstream of the additive premix feed industry includes feed raw materials like soybeans, corn, and fish meal, while the midstream involves the production of various types of premix feeds [6] - The downstream application includes livestock farming sectors such as pig, poultry, and aquaculture [6] Market Dynamics - The additive premix feed market is characterized by a clear competitive structure, with leading companies like New Hope, Tongwei, and Da Bei Nong forming the first tier, while other companies like Haida Group and Zhengbang Technology represent the second tier [10][12] - The market is expected to consolidate further, with smaller companies facing challenges due to limited innovation and sales channels [10][12] Future Trends - The industry is moving towards precise product functionality and value enhancement, focusing on tailored formulations for different livestock species and growth stages [16] - Technological advancements will drive the integration of biotechnology and smart manufacturing, optimizing formulation structures and improving production processes [17] - A comprehensive service model will emerge, extending beyond product provision to include technical support and real-time monitoring for farmers [18]

Summary of Tongwei Co. Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tongwei Co. Ltd. (Ticker: 600438.SS) - **Industry**: China Utilities, specifically in the solar energy sector Key Points Industry Consolidation - The industry has reached a consensus on a buyout framework, with plans to phase out approximately **600-700kt** of marginal capacity, resulting in a retained capacity of about **2,700kt** annually [1][2] - Future production will be strictly aligned with actual demand, indicating a shift towards more disciplined capacity management [1] Joint Ventures and Financing - Around **10 producers** are anticipated to become joint venture shareholders, with equity contributions linked to market share of retained capacity [2] - Acquisition pricing will be based on the industry's average capital expenditure per ton, funded by **20-30%** equity and the remainder through acquisition loans [2] Antitrust Considerations - The primary challenge remaining is obtaining antitrust clearance from the government, which management expects to be approved by the end of the year at the earliest [2] Polysilicon Pricing Dynamics - Year-to-date, polysilicon prices have rebounded due to industry discipline, a legal ban on below-cost selling, and capped monthly shipments of approximately **100+kt** [3] - Current manufacturing-side inventories are around **300kt**, with Tongwei holding **200kt** of that total [3] - Management does not foresee inventory levels disrupting prices as long as leading producers avoid aggressive destocking [3] Long-term Pricing Outlook - Management estimates a reasonable long-term polysilicon price range of **Rmb70–80k/ton**, which translates to a unit net profit of approximately **Rmb15–20k/ton** for Tongwei [4] Demand Outlook - Management expresses caution regarding solar demand in China for **2026**, particularly following Document No.136, but anticipates potential policy adjustments if demand significantly slows in the first half of 2026 [5] Financial Metrics - **Market Capitalization**: Rmb103,411 million - **Current Share Price**: Rmb22.97 (as of November 21, 2025) - **Price Target**: Rmb21.85, indicating a downside of **5%** from the current price [7] - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected to be **Rmb92.5 billion** in 2026, with an EBITDA of **Rmb8.3 billion** [7] Valuation Methodology - The price target is derived from a discounted cash flow (DCF) methodology, using a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of **9.5%** and a terminal growth rate of **2.0%** [9] Risks - **Upside Risks**: Higher-than-expected photovoltaic (PV) installations, less new polysilicon capacity from entrants, and faster development of next-generation solar technologies [11] - **Downside Risks**: Lower-than-expected PV installations, intensified competition, and slower overseas market exploration for its module business [11] Additional Insights - The conference call reflects a strategic shift in the solar industry towards consolidation and disciplined capacity management, which may present both opportunities and risks for investors in the sector [1][2][5]

Core Insights - The power industry is undergoing a profound transformation from scale expansion to high-quality development, with photovoltaic (PV) and energy storage as core pillars of the new power system [1] - The integration of PV and energy storage has shifted from an optional choice to a mandatory requirement, emphasizing the need for a robust ecosystem [1] Industry Transition - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period marks the end of subsidy-dependent growth in the PV and energy storage sector, transitioning to a market-driven high-quality development phase [2] - Industry competition has evolved from mere scale to a comprehensive assessment of technology, application scenarios, and service capabilities [2] - The urgency of restructuring market rules is highlighted, as it significantly impacts production costs and the healthy development of the industry [2] Technological Innovation - New energy storage, particularly grid-forming storage, is becoming essential for integrating renewable energy, with a shift from policy-driven to market-driven operations [2] - Safety is emphasized as a fundamental requirement for energy storage's participation in market transactions, with proactive monitoring systems being developed to enhance safety [3] - The focus on scenario innovation is crucial, with policies mandating that new renewable energy projects must have supporting scenarios [3] Market Strategies - Companies are adopting strategies focused on high-quality orders, particularly in overseas markets, to achieve mutual benefits through product upgrades and service optimization [4] - The integration of PV manufacturing and energy storage technologies is seen as a natural synergy, enhancing cost efficiency and reliability [8] Ecosystem Development - The industry is moving towards a collaborative ecosystem that bridges laboratory innovations to industrial applications, unlocking economic, social, and ecological value [9] - Continuous R&D investment is identified as a key driver for companies to maintain technological leadership and ensure the feasibility of industrial applications [9] - The establishment of collaborative initiatives, such as the "700W+ Photovoltaic Open Innovation Ecosystem Alliance," is crucial for scaling high-efficiency technologies [11] Future Directions - The focus on high-end, intelligent, and green production is seen as essential for industry upgrades, with AI technology expected to enhance manufacturing and operational efficiency [11] - The challenge of industrializing advanced technologies, such as solid-state and lithium-sulfur batteries, is acknowledged, with partnerships for pilot testing being a potential solution [12]

储能赛道发展提速。国家能源局公布的数据显示，截至今年三季度末，我国新型储能装机规模超过1亿 千瓦，与"十三五"末相比增长超30倍，装机规模占全球总装机比例超过40%，跃居世界第一。 储能作为光伏、风力等新能源发电的重要消纳方式，已经成为光伏龙头企业重点布局的赛道。 近日，陕西省市场监督管理局网站发布的信息显示，隆基绿能科技股份有限公司（以下简称"隆基绿 能"）拟通过股权收购、增资入股及表决权委托等多重方式，取得苏州精控能源科技股份有限公司约 61.9998%的表决权，实现对这家储能"独角兽"企业的单独控制。 至此，去年光伏组件全球出货量排名前五的光伏龙头企业已经全部入局储能赛道。 而晶科能源股份有限公司（以下简称"晶科能源"）、晶澳太阳能科技股份有限公司（以下简称"晶澳科 技"）、天合光能股份有限公司（以下简称"天合光能"）等龙头亦早已入局储能赛道。Infolink数据显 示，晶科能源位列2024年全球光伏组件出货榜榜首，晶澳科技和隆基绿能并列第二，天合光能位列第 四，通威股份位列第五。 "光储融合已成为能源转型的必然趋势，也是构建新型电力系统的关键路径。"万联证券投资顾问屈放在 接受《证券日报》记者采访时表 ...