通威股份今年以来股价跌6.92%，近5个交易日涨3.30%，近20日跌11.20%，近60日跌24.24%。 1月28日，通威股份盘中下跌2.05%，截至10:14，报19.10元/股，成交5.82亿元，换手率0.67%，总市值 859.88亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出3334.95万元，特大单买入6068.55万元，占比10.42%，卖出5688.28万 元，占比9.77%；大单买入9921.91万元，占比17.03%，卖出1.36亿元，占比23.41%。 资料显示，通威股份有限公司位于中国(四川)自由贸易试验区成都市高新区天府大道中段588号，成立 日期1995年12月8日，上市日期2004年3月2日，公司主营业务涉及水产饲料、畜禽饲料等产品的研究、 生产和销售;高纯晶硅、太阳能电池等产品的研发、生产、销售为主。主营业务收入构成为：光伏相关 产品65.86%，饲料、食品及相关产品32.89%，其他(补充)1.25%。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，通威股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第二大流 通股东，持股1.36亿股，相比上期减少2790.65万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a deep reform to combat internal competition, with regulatory measures and policy adjustments reflecting a commitment to high-quality development. However, many companies are still facing significant losses, indicating that this battle is not a short-term fix but a necessary step to resolve structural issues within the industry [2][5]. Industry Performance - Major companies like Tongwei Co., Ltd. and LONGi Green Energy are projected to incur substantial losses in 2025, with estimated net losses of 9 to 10 billion yuan and 6 to 6.5 billion yuan respectively. Other companies such as JA Solar, JinkoSolar, and Trina Solar are also expected to report significant losses, highlighting the severe challenges faced by the industry [2][3]. - The average gross margin for the entire industry is only 3.64%, with many companies trapped in a cycle of "production equals loss" due to oversupply and rising raw material costs [3][4]. Causes of Losses - The industry's performance crisis is primarily attributed to excessive homogenous production capacity and fierce price competition, compounded by soaring raw material costs. The supply of silicon materials is projected to exceed global demand by more than double over the next three years, leading to a significant imbalance [3][4]. - The price of silver, a key material in photovoltaic cells, has surged by 231% in 2025, pushing companies to adopt cost-cutting measures at the expense of technological innovation and quality [4][5]. Recommendations for Improvement - Companies must shift their focus from price competition to technological innovation and quality improvement, investing in advanced battery technologies such as TOPCon, BC, and ABC to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [4][6]. - The industry needs to establish self-regulatory standards to combat unfair competition practices, such as selling below cost and misrepresenting product capabilities, while promoting collaboration among companies to consolidate resources [4][6]. Government Role - Government policies and regulatory actions are crucial for supporting the industry's reform efforts. A unified and clear policy direction is necessary to stabilize market expectations and foster industry consensus [5][6]. - Regulatory bodies should enhance oversight on low-price dumping and set higher energy consumption and environmental standards for mature production stages, while also optimizing bidding rules to prioritize technology and quality over price [5][6]. Future Outlook - The photovoltaic industry is at a critical juncture, with the potential for recovery as companies begin to reduce losses and improve profitability. Analysts suggest that the industry may see a turning point in profitability by early 2026 [6][7]. - A collaborative effort between companies and government is essential to ensure that innovation becomes the cornerstone of industry development, allowing China to transition from a manufacturing hub to a center of innovation in the global energy transformation [7].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) industry in A-shares is facing significant losses, with many leading companies projecting substantial pre-loss figures for 2025 due to a challenging operating environment and supply-demand imbalances [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - Major PV companies are expected to report significant pre-loss figures for 2025, including Tongwei Co. with a projected loss of 9 to 10 billion yuan, LONGi Green Energy with 6 to 6.5 billion yuan, and JinkoSolar with 5.9 to 6.9 billion yuan [2]. - The overall operating environment remains difficult, with many companies experiencing nine consecutive quarters of losses since Q4 2023, driven by price declines and insufficient end-demand [3]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The PV module prices are under pressure due to "involutionary competition" and a lack of terminal demand, with market transaction prices around 0.6 yuan per watt expected in mid-2025 [3]. - The industry is witnessing a supply surplus, with production rates declining across various segments, while core material prices, such as silver, continue to rise [3]. Group 3: Recovery Efforts and Future Goals - Some companies are beginning to emerge from the loss cycle, with LONGi Green Energy projecting a maximum reduction in losses of 30.38% and Aiko Solar up to 77.44% compared to 2024 [4]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association noted a 16.9% year-on-year decline in revenue for the main industry chain in the first three quarters of 2025, but an improvement in gross margins to 3.64% [4]. - Several leading PV companies have set profit targets for 2026, with Trina Solar aiming for a net profit of no less than 200 million yuan and LONGi Green Energy targeting positive net profits in subsequent years [5].

亏损企业扎堆发公告，业绩预告披露为何"画风突变"？ 当前正值上市公司年报预告披露期，不同于以往的绩优股抢先发布业绩，今年财报季里，一批亏损公司正在密集"交卷"。 1月26日晚间，百余家A股公司披露了2025年业绩预告，多家亏损公司在列。其中，大禹生物（920970.BJ）、ST英飞拓（002528.SZ）等续亏；二六三 （002467.SZ）、恒基达鑫（002492.SZ）等首亏。 超500家A股公司预亏 另据Wind统计，截至1月26日，共计1165家A股公司已披露2025年业绩预告，业绩下滑的有709家，占比约六成，当期预计亏损的有500多家。从行业来看， 预亏幅度较大的企业扎堆房地产、建筑行业，涉及华夏幸福（600340.SH）、绿地控股（600606.SH）等。华夏幸福预计去年亏损160亿元至240亿元，暂时 成为"亏损王"。 一些业绩"滑坡"的公司，遭遇投资者"用脚投票"。至纯科技（603690.SH）预计去年亏损3亿元至4.5亿元，或出现上市以来的首次归母净利润亏损，消息披 露后公司股票一度跌停。 亏损企业扎堆发公告，业绩预告披露为何"画风突变"？南开大学金融发展研究院院长田利辉对第一财经称，这一 ...

隆基绿能分析称，2025年，光伏行业供需错配、低价内卷式竞争持续，开工率维持低位，同时国内电力 市场化改革不断深入，海外贸易壁垒持续加剧，导致了光伏企业经营环境严峻复杂。 不过，随着"反内卷"的持续深入，部分光伏企业正走出亏损"泥潭"——相较2024年，隆基绿能最高预计 减亏30.38%、爱旭股份最高减亏77.44%。 中国光伏行业协会名誉理事长王勃华此前公开指出，2025年前三季度，光伏主产业链环节营业收入同比 下降16.9%，但毛利率持续改善至3.64%，其中第三季度达5.61%，同时产能无序扩张得到有效控制。 此外，值得一提的是，虽然光伏行业整体仍深陷亏损的寒冬，多家光伏龙头近期在股权激励等方案中制 定了2026年利润转正的目标。 "预亏"成为各光伏企业2025年业绩预告单的关键词。 随着2025年业绩预告的陆续披露，A股光伏上市企业的经营状况已经逐步明晰。整体来看，第一财经记 者注意到，因受经营环境和行业供需影响，多数光伏企业仍延续亏损状态。 "预亏"成为各家业绩预告单的关键词。以出货量领先的头部企业为例，2025年，通威股份 （600438.SH）预亏90亿元至100亿元；隆基绿能（601012.S ...

企业作为市场主体，是反内卷的核心执行者，其自觉与努力决定着反内卷的实际成效，而当前全行业的 业绩困境，正是低价内卷叠加成本压力的集中恶果。2025年的光伏行业，鲜有企业能独善其身，从头部 龙头到细分领域玩家，业绩预亏成为行业常态，亏损规模与范围均创下历史新高—— 笔者认为，唯有企业筑牢自律自觉的根基，政府打出协同一致的政策组合拳，将反内卷坚持到底，才能 让光伏行业彻底走出低价厮杀的泥潭，回归技术创新与价值创造的核心赛道。 通威股份（600438.SH）预计2025年净亏损90亿~100亿元，隆基绿能（601012.SH）预亏60亿~65亿元， 两大龙头的巨亏直接折射出行业的严峻形势，其中隆基绿能明确提及四季度银浆、硅料成本大幅上涨进 一步推升了产品成本，加剧经营压力；晶澳科技（002459.SZ）、晶科能源（688223.SH）、天合光能 （688599.SH）归母净利润分别预亏45亿~48亿元、59亿~69亿元、超42亿元，组件赛道的价格战厮杀已 到白热化阶段，天合光能更坦言受硅料、银浆等原材料成本上涨影响，组件业务盈利能力同比下滑；硅 料龙头大全能源（688303.SH）持续亏损，虽三季度起硅料价格呈现恢 ...

转自：新华财经 紫金矿业"最赚钱" 周期股优势明显 数据显示，602家预计2025年实现盈利的公司中，紫金矿业以520亿元的预告净利上限居首，洛阳钼业以208亿元的预告净利上限紧随其后。 预告盈利规模前10位的上市公司还包括了立讯精密、牧原股份、药明康德、宝丰能源、上汽集团、盐湖股份、招商轮船和华友钴业。其中上汽集团预计净利 同比增长438%-558%，在10家公司中增速排名第一。而牧原股份预计同比净利下滑12.2%-17.79%，是10家公司中唯一一家预计净利出现下滑的公司。 从行业来看，盈利规模前10位公司中有3家有色金属行业公司，分别是紫金矿业、洛阳钼业和华友钴业，再加上化工行业的宝丰能源和盐湖股份，周期股占 比达到一半。 | 代码 名称 | | 净利下限(万元) 净利上限(万元) 增长下限 增长上限 | 浄利同比 浄利同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (%) | (%) | | 601899.SH 紫奈矿业 | 5,100,000.00 | 5,200,000.00 | 59.00 | 62.00 | | 603993.SH 洛阳钼亦 | 2 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, focus on provinces with large maturity scales of industrial bonds, such as Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, and Jilin, and avoid entities with industry downturns, weakened profitability, and financing channels, or those with non - bond debt risks [2]. - The broad private real estate developers still face challenges, and other industries have a low probability of concentrated risks, but entities with weak competitiveness, significant profit decline, cash - flow pressure, and concentrated debt maturities should be focused on [2]. - For convertible bonds, weak - quality entities with low - priced underlying stocks and high conversion premiums may face difficulties in exiting through conversion, and potential losses should be watched out for [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Bond Market Situation - As of January 6, 2026, the national credit bond balance was 36.18 trillion yuan, with urban investment bonds at 17.73 trillion yuan (49.00%) and industrial bonds at 18.45 trillion yuan (51.00%, down from 54.57% last year) [5]. - Beijing has the largest bond balance, followed by Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shandong. Inner Mongolia has the highest short - term bond maturity ratio at 81.09%, followed by Heilongjiang at 40.39% [5]. 2. Urban Investment Bonds - Since 2023, with a series of policies and measures, the debt pressure of urban investment platforms has been relieved, the issuance cost and credit spread of urban investment bonds have decreased, the financing cost is generally below 3%, and the debt term has been significantly extended [10]. 3. Industrial Bonds Provincial - level Analysis - Excluding urban investment bonds, Beijing has the largest industrial bond scale at over 7 trillion yuan, mainly central - enterprise bonds. Inner Mongolia has the highest short - term industrial bond maturity ratio at 82.64%, followed by Tibet, Heilongjiang, Tianjin, and Jilin [11]. - Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, and Jilin have a bond issuance coverage ratio of less than 1 for the next - year's maturity scale, indicating weak refinancing ability [14]. Industry - level Analysis - In 2025, default industries included 12 sectors such as automobile services and real estate development. The industrial holding and power industries have the largest bond balances, over 2 trillion yuan each [15]. - The paper - making, automobile services, medical devices, medical services, and publishing media industries have a short - term debt ratio of over 50%, with poor debt term structures [15]. - Industries with large short - term debt repayment pressures include rail transit, packaging, heating, furniture and home appliances, textiles, automobile services, and information technology [15]. 4. Real Estate Industry - In 2025, the default rate of real estate development entities remained high, with Vanke and Zhengxinglong defaulting. As of January 6, 2026, the real estate development enterprise bond balance was 11,528.76 billion yuan, mainly held by local and central state - owned enterprises [18]. - The short - term bond maturity pressure of public, Sino - foreign joint - venture, and private enterprises is over 40%. The broad private enterprises still face pressure, with an issuance amount of only 234.38 billion yuan in the past year, 76.93% of the next - year's maturity amount [20]. - In 2026, private real estate enterprises to focus on are Longfor and Yida Development [23]. 5. Loss - making Industrial Entities - Large - loss entities (losses over 10 billion yuan in 2024 and still in losses in the first three quarters of 2025) are mainly in the real estate development industry, including state - owned enterprises such as Overseas Chinese Town Group and financial street - related companies, as well as steel giant Ansteel Group [24]. - Entities with losses between 5 and 10 billion yuan involve industries such as electrical equipment, chemical, steel, and airport [26]. 6. ABS Market - From 2023 - 2025, the default rate of CSRC - regulated ABS was 1.10%, 0.77%, and 0.88% respectively. As of January 6, 2026, the ABS balance was 25,021.96 billion yuan, with a one - year maturity amount of 3,541.59 billion yuan (14.15%). The 2025 issuance amount covered the next - year's maturity amount 3.97 times, with good continuation [32]. 7. Convertible Bond Market - Since 2024, the convertible bond repayment risk has increased. As of January 6, 2026, the convertible bond balance was 5553.51 billion yuan, a 22.89% year - on - year decrease. The broad private enterprises accounted for 64.73%, with a relatively large proportion [33]. - Entities such as Anhui Honglu Steel Structure, Shenzhen Huayang International Engineering Design, and Shanghai Kehua Bio - Engineering face large convertible bond repayment pressures, but the conversion mechanism can reduce credit risks to some extent [35]. - Entities such as Dongfang Fashion Driving School, Hainan Pulili Pharmaceutical, and Jiangsu Fumiao Technology, although not facing immediate repayment pressures, have negative information such as business fluctuations, financial fraud, and equity freezes, and their dynamic changes should be continuously monitored [36].

智通财经APP获悉，光伏股跌幅扩大，截至发稿，凯盛新能(01108)跌7.57%，报4.03港元；信义光能 (00968)跌5.01%，报3.41港元；福莱特玻璃(06865)跌4.03%，报11.42港元；新特能源(01799)跌2.65%， 报7.72港元。 消息面上，据第一财经报道，记者根据已披露的2025年业绩预告统计发现，在已发布预告的32家光伏上 市公司中，23家预计出现亏损，占比逾七成。其中，通威股份预计2025年净利润亏损区间达90亿元至 100亿元，上年同期亏损70.39亿元。报道称，光伏主产业链的亏损明显加剧，主要由于各环节低迷的终 端需求、产能阶段性过剩、产品价格上行受阻等多重因素。 值得注意的是，马斯克近期力挺太空光伏。报道称，业内人士认为，太空光伏的发展路径存在较高不确 定性，短中期内尚难以形成规模化商业应用，无法消化地面光伏当前的过剩产能。行业走出低谷的关 键，仍在于实实在在的供给侧出清、供需再平衡与资产负债表修复。 ...

光伏股跌幅扩大，截至发稿，凯盛新能（600876）(01108)跌7.57%，报4.03港元；信义光能(00968)跌 5.01%，报3.41港元；福莱特（601865）玻璃(06865)跌4.03%，报11.42港元；新特能源(01799)跌 2.65%，报7.72港元。 消息面上，据第一财经报道，记者根据已披露的2025年业绩预告统计发现，在已发布预告的32家光伏上 市公司中，23家预计出现亏损，占比逾七成。其中，通威股份（600438）预计2025年净利润亏损区间达 90亿元至100亿元，上年同期亏损70.39亿元。报道称，光伏主产业链的亏损明显加剧，主要由于各环节 低迷的终端需求、产能阶段性过剩、产品价格上行受阻等多重因素。 值得注意的是，马斯克近期力挺太空光伏。报道称，业内人士认为，太空光伏的发展路径存在较高不确 定性，短中期内尚难以形成规模化商业应用，无法消化地面光伏当前的过剩产能。行业走出低谷的关 键，仍在于实实在在的供给侧出清、供需再平衡与资产负债表修复。 ...