转自：新华财经 紫金矿业"最赚钱" 周期股优势明显 数据显示，602家预计2025年实现盈利的公司中，紫金矿业以520亿元的预告净利上限居首，洛阳钼业以208亿元的预告净利上限紧随其后。 预告盈利规模前10位的上市公司还包括了立讯精密、牧原股份、药明康德、宝丰能源、上汽集团、盐湖股份、招商轮船和华友钴业。其中上汽集团预计净利 同比增长438%-558%，在10家公司中增速排名第一。而牧原股份预计同比净利下滑12.2%-17.79%，是10家公司中唯一一家预计净利出现下滑的公司。 从行业来看，盈利规模前10位公司中有3家有色金属行业公司，分别是紫金矿业、洛阳钼业和华友钴业，再加上化工行业的宝丰能源和盐湖股份，周期股占 比达到一半。 | 代码 名称 | | 净利下限(万元) 净利上限(万元) 增长下限 增长上限 | 浄利同比 浄利同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (%) | (%) | | 601899.SH 紫奈矿业 | 5,100,000.00 | 5,200,000.00 | 59.00 | 62.00 | | 603993.SH 洛阳钼亦 | 2 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, focus on provinces with large maturity scales of industrial bonds, such as Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, and Jilin, and avoid entities with industry downturns, weakened profitability, and financing channels, or those with non - bond debt risks [2]. - The broad private real estate developers still face challenges, and other industries have a low probability of concentrated risks, but entities with weak competitiveness, significant profit decline, cash - flow pressure, and concentrated debt maturities should be focused on [2]. - For convertible bonds, weak - quality entities with low - priced underlying stocks and high conversion premiums may face difficulties in exiting through conversion, and potential losses should be watched out for [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Bond Market Situation - As of January 6, 2026, the national credit bond balance was 36.18 trillion yuan, with urban investment bonds at 17.73 trillion yuan (49.00%) and industrial bonds at 18.45 trillion yuan (51.00%, down from 54.57% last year) [5]. - Beijing has the largest bond balance, followed by Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shandong. Inner Mongolia has the highest short - term bond maturity ratio at 81.09%, followed by Heilongjiang at 40.39% [5]. 2. Urban Investment Bonds - Since 2023, with a series of policies and measures, the debt pressure of urban investment platforms has been relieved, the issuance cost and credit spread of urban investment bonds have decreased, the financing cost is generally below 3%, and the debt term has been significantly extended [10]. 3. Industrial Bonds Provincial - level Analysis - Excluding urban investment bonds, Beijing has the largest industrial bond scale at over 7 trillion yuan, mainly central - enterprise bonds. Inner Mongolia has the highest short - term industrial bond maturity ratio at 82.64%, followed by Tibet, Heilongjiang, Tianjin, and Jilin [11]. - Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, and Jilin have a bond issuance coverage ratio of less than 1 for the next - year's maturity scale, indicating weak refinancing ability [14]. Industry - level Analysis - In 2025, default industries included 12 sectors such as automobile services and real estate development. The industrial holding and power industries have the largest bond balances, over 2 trillion yuan each [15]. - The paper - making, automobile services, medical devices, medical services, and publishing media industries have a short - term debt ratio of over 50%, with poor debt term structures [15]. - Industries with large short - term debt repayment pressures include rail transit, packaging, heating, furniture and home appliances, textiles, automobile services, and information technology [15]. 4. Real Estate Industry - In 2025, the default rate of real estate development entities remained high, with Vanke and Zhengxinglong defaulting. As of January 6, 2026, the real estate development enterprise bond balance was 11,528.76 billion yuan, mainly held by local and central state - owned enterprises [18]. - The short - term bond maturity pressure of public, Sino - foreign joint - venture, and private enterprises is over 40%. The broad private enterprises still face pressure, with an issuance amount of only 234.38 billion yuan in the past year, 76.93% of the next - year's maturity amount [20]. - In 2026, private real estate enterprises to focus on are Longfor and Yida Development [23]. 5. Loss - making Industrial Entities - Large - loss entities (losses over 10 billion yuan in 2024 and still in losses in the first three quarters of 2025) are mainly in the real estate development industry, including state - owned enterprises such as Overseas Chinese Town Group and financial street - related companies, as well as steel giant Ansteel Group [24]. - Entities with losses between 5 and 10 billion yuan involve industries such as electrical equipment, chemical, steel, and airport [26]. 6. ABS Market - From 2023 - 2025, the default rate of CSRC - regulated ABS was 1.10%, 0.77%, and 0.88% respectively. As of January 6, 2026, the ABS balance was 25,021.96 billion yuan, with a one - year maturity amount of 3,541.59 billion yuan (14.15%). The 2025 issuance amount covered the next - year's maturity amount 3.97 times, with good continuation [32]. 7. Convertible Bond Market - Since 2024, the convertible bond repayment risk has increased. As of January 6, 2026, the convertible bond balance was 5553.51 billion yuan, a 22.89% year - on - year decrease. The broad private enterprises accounted for 64.73%, with a relatively large proportion [33]. - Entities such as Anhui Honglu Steel Structure, Shenzhen Huayang International Engineering Design, and Shanghai Kehua Bio - Engineering face large convertible bond repayment pressures, but the conversion mechanism can reduce credit risks to some extent [35]. - Entities such as Dongfang Fashion Driving School, Hainan Pulili Pharmaceutical, and Jiangsu Fumiao Technology, although not facing immediate repayment pressures, have negative information such as business fluctuations, financial fraud, and equity freezes, and their dynamic changes should be continuously monitored [36].

智通财经APP获悉，光伏股跌幅扩大，截至发稿，凯盛新能(01108)跌7.57%，报4.03港元；信义光能 (00968)跌5.01%，报3.41港元；福莱特玻璃(06865)跌4.03%，报11.42港元；新特能源(01799)跌2.65%， 报7.72港元。 消息面上，据第一财经报道，记者根据已披露的2025年业绩预告统计发现，在已发布预告的32家光伏上 市公司中，23家预计出现亏损，占比逾七成。其中，通威股份预计2025年净利润亏损区间达90亿元至 100亿元，上年同期亏损70.39亿元。报道称，光伏主产业链的亏损明显加剧，主要由于各环节低迷的终 端需求、产能阶段性过剩、产品价格上行受阻等多重因素。 值得注意的是，马斯克近期力挺太空光伏。报道称，业内人士认为，太空光伏的发展路径存在较高不确 定性，短中期内尚难以形成规模化商业应用，无法消化地面光伏当前的过剩产能。行业走出低谷的关 键，仍在于实实在在的供给侧出清、供需再平衡与资产负债表修复。 ...

光伏股跌幅扩大，截至发稿，凯盛新能（600876）(01108)跌7.57%，报4.03港元；信义光能(00968)跌 5.01%，报3.41港元；福莱特（601865）玻璃(06865)跌4.03%，报11.42港元；新特能源(01799)跌 2.65%，报7.72港元。 消息面上，据第一财经报道，记者根据已披露的2025年业绩预告统计发现，在已发布预告的32家光伏上 市公司中，23家预计出现亏损，占比逾七成。其中，通威股份（600438）预计2025年净利润亏损区间达 90亿元至100亿元，上年同期亏损70.39亿元。报道称，光伏主产业链的亏损明显加剧，主要由于各环节 低迷的终端需求、产能阶段性过剩、产品价格上行受阻等多重因素。 值得注意的是，马斯克近期力挺太空光伏。报道称，业内人士认为，太空光伏的发展路径存在较高不确 定性，短中期内尚难以形成规模化商业应用，无法消化地面光伏当前的过剩产能。行业走出低谷的关 键，仍在于实实在在的供给侧出清、供需再平衡与资产负债表修复。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the power equipment industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The space for space photovoltaic technology is vast, and the potential for solid-state batteries and AIDC (Advanced Intelligent Driving Control) is promising [1] - The energy storage sector is expected to see significant growth, with a projected increase of over 60% in 2026 due to rising demand and supply constraints [3][4] - The report highlights the strong performance of various segments within the power equipment industry, including wind power, nuclear power, and lithium batteries, with notable price increases in lithium carbonate and other materials [3][4] Industry Trends - The energy storage market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with new installations reaching 66.43 GW and 189.48 GWh in 2025 [3] - The report notes that the U.S. energy storage market is also expanding, with a projected installation of 80 GWh in 2026, driven by data center demands and favorable policies [7] - The report indicates that the demand for solid-state batteries is increasing, with major companies accelerating their production lines [4] Company Performance - Companies such as Ningde Times, Sunshine Power, and others are expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, with projected increases ranging from 50% to over 100% [3][4] - The report mentions specific companies like Hunan YN, which anticipates a net profit of 1.15-1.4 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 93.75%-135.87% [3] - The report also highlights the expected losses for companies like Longi Green Energy and Tongwei Co., with projected net losses of 6-6.5 billion yuan and 9-10 billion yuan, respectively [3] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on energy storage, lithium batteries, and solid-state technologies, with recommendations for leading companies in these sectors [4] - It emphasizes the importance of companies with strong technological advantages and overseas market access, particularly in the AIDC sector [4] - The report also highlights the potential for growth in the wind and solar power sectors, with specific recommendations for companies involved in these areas [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the power equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the vast potential of space photovoltaic technology and the promising prospects of solid-state batteries and AIDC (Automated Identification and Data Capture) [1] - The energy storage sector is expected to see significant growth, with a projected increase of over 60% in 2026 due to rising demand and supply constraints [3][4] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of various segments within the power equipment industry, including wind power, nuclear power, and lithium batteries, with notable price increases in lithium carbonate and other materials [3][4] Industry Trends - The energy storage market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with new installations reaching 66.43 GW and 189.48 GWh in 2025 [3] - The report notes that the U.S. energy storage market is also booming, with a projected installation of 80 GWh in 2026, driven by AI and data center demands [7] - The report indicates that the wind power sector is expected to grow significantly, with domestic offshore wind capacity projected to exceed 8 GW in 2025 [4] Company Performance - Companies such as Ningde Times, Sunshine Power, and others are expected to see substantial profit growth in 2025, with Ningde Times projected to achieve a net profit of 11.5-14 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 93.75%-135.87% [3][4] - The report highlights several companies with strong growth potential, including Ningde Times, Sunshine Power, and others, which are positioned well in the energy storage and electric vehicle markets [4][6] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on energy storage, solid-state batteries, and AIDC technologies, with recommendations for leading companies in these sectors [4][6] - It emphasizes the importance of investing in companies with strong technological advantages and overseas market access, particularly in the context of rising global demand for energy storage solutions [4][6]

今天中国制造业的版图中，正在涌现一批专业横渡这片海域的"摆渡人"，它们的名字叫"中试平台"。它能在成本 可控的环境下高效打通产品大规模生产的技术堵点，形成样品并进行市场验证，提前拔除产品量产与市场接纳层 面的"暗礁"，让创新成果得以顺利跨越断层地带。 从生物医药、光伏器件到电池材料、工业机器人行业，从省级中试平台到首批国家级制造业中试平台，证券时报 记者深入探访多家头部企业的"中试战场"，探寻中试平台能成为创新基础设施、系统性化解"达尔文死海"困局的 奥秘。 在科技创新的航线上，有一片令人望而生畏的断裂带——"达尔文死海"：当大量科研成果满怀希望地起航，想从 实验室走向市场，就会面临从毫克级到吨级的工艺放大难题、高额投入下的经济性拷问、复杂环境下的稳定性挑 战……任何一道浪头都可能吞噬创新的航船，形成科技成果转化的断层地带。 创新的"诺亚方舟"：让惊险一跃变成从容航行 如果用一个字形容中试平台，那就是"大"。在位于成都双流区的通威全球创新研发中心，一件件通威TNC光伏组 件产品正在光伏检测中心T5实验室经历一场"严苛试炼"。它们不仅要在零下40摄氏度极寒到85摄氏度高温测试中 保持性能，还要经历冰雹、载荷、紫 ...

在科技创新的航线上，有一片令人望而生畏的断裂带——"达尔文死海"：当大量科研成果满怀希望地起 航，想从实验室走向市场，就会面临从毫克级到吨级的工艺放大难题、高额投入下的经济性拷问、复杂 环境下的稳定性挑战……任何一道浪头都可能吞噬创新的航船，形成科技成果转化的断层地带 。 今天中国制造业的版图中，正在涌现一批专业横渡这片海域的"摆渡人"，它们的名字叫"中试平台"。它能 在成本可控的环境下高效打通产品大规模生产的技术堵点，形成样品并进行市场验证，提前拔除产品量产 与市场接纳层面的"暗礁"，让创新成果得以顺利跨越断层地带。 从生物医药、光伏器件到电池材料、工业机器人行业，从省级中试平台到首批国家级制造业中试平台，证 券时报记者深入探访多家头部企业的"中试战场"，探寻中试平台能成为创新基础设施、系统性化解"达尔文 死海"困局的奥秘。 创新的"诺亚方舟"：让惊险一跃变成从容航行 如果用一个字形容中试平台，那就是"大"。 在位于成都双流区的通威全球创新研发中心，一件件通威TNC 光伏组件产品正在光伏检测中心T5实验室经历一场"严苛试炼"。它们不仅要在零下40摄氏度极寒到85摄氏 度高温测试中保持性能，还要经历冰雹、载荷 ...

在科技创新的航线上，有一片令人望而生畏的断裂带——"达尔文死海"：当大量科研成果满怀希望地起 航，想从实验室走向市场，就会面临从毫克级到吨级的工艺放大难题、高额投入下的经济性拷问、复杂 环境下的稳定性挑战……任何一道浪头都可能吞噬创新的航船，形成科技成果转化的断层地带。 今天中国制造业的版图中，正在涌现一批专业横渡这片海域的"摆渡人"，它们的名字叫"中试平台"。它 能在成本可控的环境下高效打通产品大规模生产的技术堵点，形成样品并进行市场验证，提前拔除产品 量产与市场接纳层面的"暗礁"，让创新成果得以顺利跨越断层地带。 从生物医药、光伏器件到电池材料、工业机器人行业，从省级中试平台到首批国家级制造业中试平台， 证券时报记者深入探访多家头部企业的"中试战场"，探寻中试平台能成为创新基础设施、系统性化 解"达尔文死海"困局的奥秘。 全能型"特种兵"： 打通技术到市场最后一公里 中试，是实验室新成果走向规模化生产的过渡性试验，也是科技成果产业化的关键环节。中试平台要系 统性地解答每一项创新从"技术可行"到"市场可行"之间的所有关键问题，真正打通创新落地的"最后一 公里"。 创新的"诺亚方舟"： 让惊险一跃变成从容航行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) sector in A-shares has seen a significant surge, with multiple stocks experiencing a 20% increase, driven by Elon Musk's endorsement of space photovoltaics at the Davos Forum. However, the industry faces a harsh reality of prolonged losses, overcapacity, and persistent price pressures, with major companies expected to report substantial losses in 2025 [3][4][5]. Group 1: Industry Performance and Financial Outlook - A total of 32 listed PV companies have issued profit warnings, with 23 companies, over 70%, expected to incur losses in 2025 [5]. - Major players like Tongwei Co. are projected to face losses between 9 billion to 10 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous year's loss of 7.04 billion yuan, marking it as the only company with a projected loss exceeding 10 billion yuan [5][6]. - Trina Solar and JinkoSolar are also expected to report substantial losses, with Trina Solar's losses estimated at 6.5 billion to 7.5 billion yuan, up from 3.44 billion yuan the previous year [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The PV industry is grappling with a dual weakness in supply and demand, leading to significant price declines across the supply chain, including silicon materials, cells, and modules [8][9]. - The rapid expansion of manufacturing capacity in recent years has coincided with a slowdown in global demand, resulting in severe supply-demand imbalances [9]. - The cost of key raw materials, particularly silver, has surged, further straining the profitability of PV companies. Silver prices have increased by over 118% since October of the previous year, significantly impacting production costs [9][10]. Group 3: Future Industry Prospects - The path to recovery for the PV industry hinges on supply-side reforms, including capacity utilization improvements and the elimination of outdated production capabilities [10]. - The industry must address the current overcapacity and restore a healthy balance between supply and demand to improve product pricing and overall profitability [10].