又一光伏龙头交出2025年度"成绩单"预告！ 1月21日晚间，晶科能源披露2025年度业绩预告，预计2025年归母净利润亏损59亿元至69亿元。公司表示，报告期内，全球光伏产业链价格波动加剧，光 伏组件一体化各环节的盈利水平总体承压。展望2026年，行业将迈向以技术和质量为核心的高质量发展阶段，行业供需关系有望加速平衡。 据统计，截至发稿，晶科能源、天合光能、隆基绿能等多家头部光伏企业已相继交出年度"成绩单"预告。从整体业绩表现来看，光伏产业链各环节企业延 续了此前的亏损态势。 中国光伏行业协会咨询专家吕锦标在接受上海证券报记者采访时分析称："行业亏损的核心原因，在于产品价格反弹至成本线仍需一定周期，叠加企业低 负荷生产推高了单位成本，这其中又以折旧及费用摊销的影响最为显著。" 在普遍亏损的背景下，一部分企业实现了显著减亏。弘元绿能、亿晶光电、爱旭股份、大全能源等企业的减亏幅度位居前列，最高同比减亏达109.27%、 78.47%、77.44%、63.21%，均超六成。 谈及业绩变动原因，大全能源表示，报告期内公司持续深化精细化管理，推进技术工艺创新，有效降低了生产成本、提升了运营效率，为盈利水平改善提 供了 ...

文章转自2026年01月07日太平洋 新能源 团队报告，分析师： 刘强 、钟欣材 投资要点 供给端过剩，"反内卷"持续推进。 国内和海外产能同步加速建设， 2023-2024 年硅料、硅片、电池片、组件产能迎来加速释放， 2024 年以来光伏产能严重 过剩 ，行业报价持续走低、各企业持续亏损。在此背景下，破除"内卷式"竞争持续引起市场关注。 2025 年 6 月底，在人民日报发表的《在破除 "内卷式" 竞争中实现高质量发展》一文中，点名光伏行业"内卷式竞争"，而后光伏反内卷相关会议密集召开，直面行业内卷问题。随着"反内卷"持续推进，供给端资 本开支大幅削减，供给端有望迎来反转，产能有望得到有效管控。产业链自上而下持续推进"反内卷"， 2026 年供需结构有望进一步改善。 1、"反内卷"推动供需重塑，光储平价在核心市场加速展开，新场景打开远期想象空间 从欧行场景打开远期需求空间。 业洲2025 供等需国年有家年望和中进区起一域，步加"反重速内塑展卷，开"报，精价储神与能持盈发续利展深有迅入望速光随，伏着有行供效业需缓，重解主塑光链震伏报荡新价修增自复装上。机而展快下望速回远提暖期升，需对辅求电材，网龙随带头着来 ...

一、事件：光伏龙头预亏引爆行业焦虑 2025年末至2026年初，光伏行业迎来业绩披露"寒冬"。1月18日，A股两大光伏龙头——隆基绿能、通 威股份披露了2025年年度业绩预告，两家企业均预计2025年全年经营将录得净亏损，隆基绿能预亏超60 亿元，通威股份预亏超90亿元。本月以来，晶澳科技、TCL中环、天合光能、晶科能源、钧达股份和大 全能源也陆续发布业绩预亏公告，其中天合光能、晶科能源尚未披露业绩亏损金额范围，但均表示预计 2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为负值。光伏行业深度调整仍在持续，行业整体尚未走出 亏损困境。 表1光伏企业业绩预亏公告 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 2025年净利润 | 2025年净利润 | 最新总市值(亿元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 预告上限(亿元) | 预告下限(亿元) | | | 600438.SH | 通威股份 | -90 | -100 | 901.3 | | 002129.SZ | TCL中环 | -82 | -96 | 357.41 | | 601012.SH | 降基绿能 | -60 | -65 | ...

根据公司于 2026 年 1 月 19 日发布的《通威股份有限公司 2025 年年度业绩预告》，2025 年， 行业阶段性供应过剩问题尚未缓解，产业链各环节开工率下行，白银等部分核心原材料价格持续上 涨，产品价格同比继续下跌，行业经营压力仍然显著。公司报告期内经营性导致归属上市公司所有 者的净利润亏损约 75~80 亿元，同比去年经营性增加亏损约 12~17 亿元。此外，基于会计准则要求 及谨慎性考虑，报告期内公司计提长期资产减值合计约 15~20 亿元，同比增加约 7~12 亿元。公司 预计 2025 年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润约为-90 亿元至-100 亿元。 针对上述事项，联合资信已与公司取得联系并了解相关情况，并将在获取公司 2025 年度经营 和财务数据后，对公司偿债能力和信用水平进行全面分析和评估。综合评估，联合资信决定维持上 次评级结果不变，公司个体信用等级为 aaa，主体长期信用等级为 AAA，维持"通 22 转债"信用 等级为 AAA，评级展望为稳定。 特此公告 联合〔2026〕510 号 联合资信评估股份有限公司关于通威股份有限公司 2025 年度业绩亏损的关注公告 受通威股份有 ...

通威股份公告称，2025年行业阶段性供应过剩，开工率下行、原材料涨价、产品降价致经营压力大。公 司经营性净利润亏损约75 - 80亿元，同比增亏12 - 17亿元；计提长期资产减值约15 - 20亿元，同比增加 约7 - 12亿元。预计2025年归属于母公司所有者的净利润约为 - 90亿元至 - 100亿元。联合资信与公司沟 通后，维持上次评级结果，公司个体和主体长期信用等级为AAA，"通22转债"信用等级AAA，评级展 望稳定，该转债余额119.83亿元，2028年2月24日到期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the advancements in photovoltaic technology, specifically focusing on Tongwei's TNC 3.0, which aims to enhance efficiency in solar cells and modules to achieve lower levelized cost of electricity [1][2]. Group 1: Efficiency Improvement - Increasing module efficiency is essential for maximizing output per unit area, which is a key variable in optimizing the value of solar systems [2]. - The enhancement in efficiency leads to greater power generation capability per module, resulting in increased overall system efficiency and reduced costs for supporting materials like brackets and cables [5]. - The direction for efficiency improvement is clear: optimizing the ability of modules to capture sunlight, converting more light into electricity, and minimizing losses during current transmission [5]. Group 2: Multi-Slice Module Technology - Tongwei's focus is not only on immediate performance improvements but also on the long-term stability of efficiency in real-world applications [6]. - Multi-slice module technology has been a significant avenue for enhancing output per unit area, but challenges such as production efficiency and cutting damage must be systematically addressed [6]. - Since the establishment of the multi-slice high-efficiency module R&D project in 2016, Tongwei has made significant breakthroughs in R&D, production, sales, and downstream applications of multi-slice modules [6]. Group 3: Advanced Battery Technology - The TNC 3.0 G12R-66 model achieves a maximum power of 670W with a conversion efficiency of 24.8%, while the G12-66 model reaches 770W with the same efficiency, making it a leader in the industry for 210 modules [7]. - The efficiency gains in TNC 3.0 are not solely dependent on module processes but are built on the integration of multiple key technologies, including 360° passivation high-efficiency batteries [9]. - The 360° passivation battery technology allows for a significant increase in single-cell efficiency to over 26.3% and power output to over 11.6W, contributing to a power gain of over 26.4W for the TNC 3.0 module [10]. Group 4: Long-term Stability and Real-world Application - TNC 3.0 not only achieves improvements in experimental parameters but also establishes a foundation for long-term stable output under real manufacturing and operational conditions [10]. - The true efficiency revolution lies in ensuring that technological breakthroughs are consistently realized in every production cycle, making efficiency improvements a verifiable and sustainable competitive advantage for Tongwei [10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a peak in earnings forecasts, with over 500 companies disclosing their 2025 performance predictions, highlighting strong growth in technology sectors driven by AI, while other sectors like photovoltaics and pig farming face challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - As of January 20, 2025, 525 A-share companies have disclosed earnings forecasts, with around 200 expecting growth and over 100 projecting net profit increases exceeding 100% [2]. - The highest projected net profit increase is from Huisheng Biological, with an expected profit of 235 million to 271 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 1265.93% to 1444.54% [3][4]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly "hard technology," is showing strong profitability, driven by the demand for AI infrastructure and data storage, with companies like Baiwei Storage expecting a net profit of 850 million to 1 billion yuan, a growth of 427.19% to 520.22% [6]. - Zijin Mining, a leading mining company, forecasts a net profit of 51 billion to 52 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 189 billion to 199 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 59% to 62% [4][5]. Group 3: Challenges in Certain Industries - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant challenges, with companies like Tongwei Co. predicting a net loss of 9 billion to 10 billion yuan due to market fluctuations and rising raw material prices [8][9]. - In the pig farming sector, companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs are forecasting declines in performance, with some expecting losses due to falling pig prices and increased operational costs [9].

A股逐步迎来业绩预告高峰。截至1月20日晚间，已有超过500家A股公司披露2025年业绩预告或业绩快 报。 良好的业绩推动回盛生物股价大幅攀升。自业绩预告披露后，1月12日至1月20日，回盛生物区间涨幅接 近40%。 在已披露预告的企业中，预计盈利规模最大的是矿业龙头紫金矿业（601899）。早在2025年12月30日， 紫金矿业就率先披露了2025年业绩预告，预计2025年归母净利润为510亿元至520亿元，同比增加约189 亿元至199亿元，同比增幅59%至62%。 紫金矿业在高基数上保持高速增长，主要得益于其矿产品产量上升，且价格同比上升。2025年，紫金矿 业的矿产金、矿产铜、矿产银价格同比均上升。2025年内，紫金矿业的股价累计涨幅达133%。 除紫金矿业外，洛阳钼业（603993）、药明康德（603259）、立讯精密（002475）、宝丰能源 （600989）等多家公司预计2025年归母净利润规模超百亿元，上述公司盈利规模同比均有明显增长。 2025年，在AI技术的强势赋能下，科技领域多个细分赛道保持高景气态势，产业链上下游大量企业凭 借技术迭代与需求释放，实现了业绩的稳健增长。而光伏、白酒、生猪 ...

截至1月20日，近十家光伏龙头企业陆续发布了2025年业绩预告。从已公布数据看，光伏行业遭遇财务 寒冬，全产业链陷入亏损困局。 通威股份（600438）预亏超100亿元，隆基绿能（601012）预亏超60亿元，晶澳科技（002459）、爱旭 股份（600732）、天合光能、晶科能源、钧达股份（002865）、大全能源、时创能源业陆续公布了业绩 预亏公告…… "2025年，随着136号文落地，政策驱动了需求前置，引发前5个月的抢装潮，导致光伏出货量激增，仅5 月单月新增装机就达到92.92GW，创下历史新高。在政府干预与行业自律的背景下，光伏行业在一定程 度上控制了无序发展，但仍然难掩产能过剩、行业竞争激烈以及盈利能力差的局面。" 万创投行研究院 院长段志强在接受《国际金融报》记者采访时分析称。 他表示，更严峻的局面在今年，从2026年4月1日起，光伏产品出口将不再享受增值税退税，这直接增加 了成本压力。对于行业来说，像是投放一颗重磅炸弹，预计生存博弈将更加激烈。 通威股份表示，报告期内，光伏新增装机规模总体维持同比增长，但下半年增速明显放缓，行业阶段性 供应过剩问题尚未缓解，产业链各环节开工率下行，白银等部分 ...

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP reached 1401879 billion yuan, growing by 5% year-on-year, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5% respectively [2] - The industrial added value increased by 5.9%, while the service sector grew by 5.4%. Retail sales totaled 501202 billion yuan, up by 3.7% [2] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8%, with a notable decline in real estate investment [3] Trade and Investment - Canada has reduced the import tax on Chinese electric vehicles to 6.1%, allowing an annual quota of 49,000 vehicles, which is a significant policy shift aimed at filling market gaps [4][5] - The adjustment in tariffs is expected to enhance the competitiveness of Chinese electric vehicles in the Canadian market, which has seen a decline in sales due to high costs and tariffs [5] Real Estate Market - In December 2025, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.3%, with a notable increase in Shanghai, while overall new home sales area decreased by 8.7% year-on-year [6] - The real estate market is still in a bottoming phase, with a significant reduction in new supply and ongoing inventory pressure [7] Mobile Phone Industry - Several smartphone manufacturers, including Xiaomi and OPPO, have lowered their annual shipment forecasts due to rising storage costs, with reductions exceeding 20% for some brands [8] - The impact of rising storage prices is uneven across manufacturers, with larger firms like Apple and Samsung less affected [9] Solar Industry - Nine leading solar companies, including LONGi Green Energy and Tongwei Co., have announced expected losses for 2025, with Tongwei projecting a loss of 90 to 100 billion yuan [10] - The solar industry is facing significant challenges, including high inventory levels and price competition, leading to a prolonged period of losses [11] Wealth Disparity - The global wealth of billionaires reached a record 18.3 trillion USD in 2025, with a 16% increase in total wealth, highlighting a growing wealth gap amid stagnant poverty reduction efforts [12][13] - The AI sector's growth has significantly contributed to the increase in billionaire wealth, while ordinary residents face declining purchasing power due to inflation [13] Space Tourism - A startup has announced the opening of reservations for the world's first lunar hotel, aiming to begin operations by 2032, although the feasibility of such a project remains uncertain [14][15]