兰及苏 电力设备/ 光伏设备 2026 年 01 月 12 日 破冠 行业 证券分析师 李冲 A0230524070001 lichong@swsresearch.com 马天一 A0230525040004 maty@swsresearch.com 联系人 李冲 A0230524070001 lichong@swsresearch.com 事件:财政部与税务总局于 1 月 9 日正式宣布，自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起，取消 光伏等产品的增值税出口退税，本次政策是 2024 年 11 月出口退税政策的延续 (2024 年 11 月将出口退税由 13%降低至 9%），本次出口退税降至 0 标志着 持续十余年的光伏出口直接财政支持政策全面退出，有望促使行业步入高质量 发展阶段。 申万宏源研究微信服务号 光伏产品出口退税取消，有望促使 看好 窗口期带来"抢出口"与排产提升。由于政策至 2026 年 4 月生效,预期 Q1 将 ○ 出现海外客户加快下单、企业提升排产的情况,类似此前阶段性抢装现象,因 此出口占比较多的光伏组件企业 2026 年 Q1 业绩有望改善。 政策窗口结束后,海外组件价格有望重议。中国是全 ...

行 业 及 产 业 电力设备/ 光伏设备 2026 年 01 月 12 日 光伏产品出口退税取消，有望促使 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 - 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 李冲 A0230524070001 lichong@swsresearch.com 马天一 A0230525040004 maty@swsresearch.com 联系人 李冲 A0230524070001 lichong@swsresearch.com ⚫ 事件：财政部与税务总局于 1 月 9 日正式宣布，自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起，取消 光伏等产品的增值税出口退税，本次政策是 2024 年 11 月出口退税政策的延续 （2024 年 11 月将出口退税由 13%降低至 9%），本次出口退税降至 0 标志着 持续十余年的光伏出口直接财政支持政策全面退出，有望促使行业步入高质量 发展阶段。 看好 ——光伏行业点评 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 行业高质量发展 ⚫ 窗口期带来"抢出口"与排产提升。由于政策至 2026 年 4 月生效，预期 Q1 将 出 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The space photovoltaic sector is gaining attention as leading companies increase investment in perovskite solar cell research and industrialization, which is expected to open new application scenarios for photovoltaics [6][7] - The deep-sea wind power project in Shandong has received approval, marking significant progress in the development of offshore wind energy, with expectations for substantial growth in this sector [6][11] - The energy storage and hydrogen sectors are seeing regulatory efforts to standardize competition, aiming to improve market order and sustainability [7] Summary by Sections Wind Power - The Shandong deep-sea wind power project has been approved, with a total capacity of 3000MW, utilizing 214 wind turbines of 14MW each [11] - The wind power index increased by 10.39%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.60 percentage points, with a current PE_TTM of approximately 27.30 times [12] - The approval of the project indicates a significant advancement in offshore wind energy, supported by technological maturity and favorable policies [11] Photovoltaics - The space photovoltaic concept is gaining traction, with companies focusing on perovskite solar cells due to their lightweight and high-efficiency characteristics, which are suitable for space applications [6] - The photovoltaic equipment index rose by 3.86%, with the solar cell component index increasing by 5.82% [5] - The current PE_TTM for the photovoltaic sector is around 47.28 times, indicating strong market interest [5] Energy Storage & Hydrogen - A meeting held by various government bodies highlighted the rapid development of the energy storage and hydrogen battery industries, emphasizing the need for regulatory measures to curb irrational competition [7] - The energy storage index increased by 5.74%, with a current PE_TTM of 31.06 times, reflecting a healthy market outlook [5] - Recommendations for investment include companies with strong competitive positions in energy storage and distributed energy sectors [7]

与此同时，光伏行业自律进入新阶段，有消息称，1月6日市场监管总局约谈了中国光伏行业协会与通威 股份、大全能源、新特能源等硅料头部企业。据了解，会议主要内容涉及通报有关垄断风险、提出明确 整改意见并对企业做好整改工作提出要求等，明确整改要求，不得约定产能、产能利用率、产销量以及 销售价格；不得通过出资比例，以任何形式进行市场划分、产量分配、利润分配；不得对当前、今后的 价格、成本、产销量等信息开展沟通协调。 2026年伊始，光伏行业在政策层面迎来双重变局。随着光伏产品增值税出口退税的全面取消，以及业内 传闻的行业自律被官方约谈叫停，持续一段时间的政策呵护与隐性秩序正被撤去。 市场对此反应剧烈，多晶硅市场情绪降至冰点，1月9日多晶硅主力合约2605大幅下跌，大全能源 （688303.SH）、通威股份（600438.SH）等硅料股周内均是大跌。 这标志着中国光伏产业将彻底告别政策温床，产业正站在一个历史性拐点上。监管的约束与财税扶持的 退坡交织，将形成一个截然不同的竞争格局，其对光伏上市公司经营业绩的影响，意味着行业估值体系 面临重构。 光伏行业开年遭遇监管铁腕 财政部和国家税务总局日前宣布，自2026年4月1日起 ...

本文字数：2540，阅读时长大约4分钟 2026.01.11 市场的反应极为迅速且剧烈，多晶硅期货连续两日暴跌。1月8日，多晶硅期货主力合约大跌9%；1月9 日再跌8%，盘中最低触及50080元/吨。硅料相关股票也同步下跌。 作者 |第一财经 魏中原 2026年伊始，光伏行业在政策层面迎来双重变局。随着光伏产品增值税出口退税的全面取消，以及业内 传闻的行业自律被官方约谈叫停，持续一段时间的政策呵护与隐性秩序正被撤去。 市场对此反应剧烈，多晶硅市场情绪降至冰点，1月9日多晶硅主力合约2605大幅下跌，大全能源 （688303.SH）、通威股份（600438.SH）等硅料股周内均是大跌。 这标志着中国光伏产业将彻底告别政策温床，产业正站在一个历史性拐点上。监管的约束与财税扶持的 退坡交织，将形成一个截然不同的竞争格局，其对光伏上市公司经营业绩的影响，意味着行业估值体系 面临重构。 光伏行业开年遭遇监管铁腕 财政部和国家税务总局日前宣布，自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税，标志着行业进 入"无退税补贴"阶段。我国光伏行业出口退税政策始于2013年10月，最近两年退税率逐步下降，从2024 年12月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry in China is facing a significant policy shift with the complete cancellation of export VAT rebates and the halting of industry self-regulation, marking a historical turning point for the sector [3][4]. Policy Changes - Starting April 1, 2026, the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products will be fully canceled, transitioning the industry into a "no rebate subsidy" phase [4]. - The export VAT rebate policy, initiated in October 2013, has seen a gradual decline in rebate rates, dropping from 13% to 9% as of December 1, 2024, indicating a move towards the cancellation of rebates [4]. Market Reactions - The market reacted sharply to these policy changes, with the price of multicrystalline silicon contracts dropping significantly, and major companies like Daqo New Energy and Tongwei Co. experiencing substantial stock declines [3][5]. - On January 8 and 9, 2026, the main contract for multicrystalline silicon futures fell by 9% and 8% respectively, reaching a low of 50,080 yuan/ton [5][11]. Industry Self-Regulation - The recent discussions between the State Administration for Market Regulation and leading companies in the silicon material sector indicate a shift away from previous self-regulatory practices, which had aimed to stabilize prices through coordinated production and sales strategies [5][6]. - The new regulatory environment prohibits companies from coordinating on production capacity, sales volumes, and pricing, which could lead to increased market volatility [5][6]. Price Dynamics - Despite rising prices for upstream materials like silicon and silicon wafers, the prices for downstream components have not followed suit, squeezing profit margins for developers [9]. - The average transaction price for N-type multicrystalline silicon was reported at 59,200 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.83%, while N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers saw a price increase of 9.17% [9]. Demand and Market Outlook - The first quarter is traditionally a low-demand season for the photovoltaic industry, complicating the acceptance of price increases by end-users [10]. - The overall market demand has been weakening, with a decline in order visibility for both domestic and overseas markets as the year-end approaches [10]. Capital Market Impact - The shift in policy is prompting a "value reassessment" in the capital markets for the photovoltaic sector, leading to significant sell-offs and pressure on valuations [11]. - From January 8 to 9, 2026, the photovoltaic sector experienced a notable sell-off, with major companies like Tongwei Co. and GCL-Poly Energy facing significant stock price declines [11].

产业变局 2026年伊始，光伏行业在政策层面迎来双重变局。随着光伏产品增值税出口退税的全面取消，以及业内 传闻的行业自律被官方约谈叫停，持续一段时间的政策呵护与隐性秩序正被撤去。 市场对此反应剧烈，多晶硅市场情绪降至冰点，1月9日多晶硅主力合约2605大幅下跌，大全能源 （688303.SH）、通威股份（600438.SH）等硅料股周内均是大跌。 这标志着中国光伏产业将彻底告别政策温床，产业正站在一个历史性拐点上。监管的约束与财税扶持的 退坡交织，将形成一个截然不同的竞争格局，其对光伏上市公司经营业绩的影响，意味着行业估值体系 面临重构。 光伏行业开年遭遇监管铁腕 财政部和国家税务总局日前宣布，自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税，标志着行业进 入"无退税补贴"阶段。我国光伏行业出口退税政策始于2013年10月，最近两年退税率逐步下降，从2024 年12月1日起，光伏硅片、电池及组件的出口退税率就从13%降到9%，在当时被视为退税取消的过渡阶 段。 值得重视的是退税取消的背景。2024年以来，我国光伏产品在海外市场面临日益激烈的竞争，出口价格 持续走低，呈现"量增价减"态势。刚刚过去的2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting with the State Administration for Market Regulation highlighted concerns about potential monopolistic practices in the polysilicon industry, prompting calls for regulatory compliance and market-driven solutions to address excessive competition and price manipulation [1][2][4]. Industry Overview - On January 6, 2026, the State Administration for Market Regulation held discussions with major polysilicon companies, including Tongwei Co., GCL-Poly Energy, Daqo New Energy, and Xinte Energy, regarding reported monopolistic risks and corrective measures [1][2]. - Following the meeting, stock prices for these companies fell significantly, with declines of 3.83%, 7.89%, 6.1%, and 7.81% respectively by January 9 [1]. Regulatory Actions - The meeting's minutes indicated that since July 2025, there have been reports of companies using self-regulation as a pretext to raise polysilicon prices, leading to the establishment of a platform company aimed at capacity integration [2]. - The regulatory body emphasized that companies should not agree on production capacity, sales prices, or engage in market division, and must avoid any form of communication regarding pricing and production volumes [2]. Market Dynamics - The establishment of the platform company, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., was intended to address the issue of excessive competition in the polysilicon sector through a dual-track model of "debt acquisition + flexible capacity utilization" [2]. - Analysts noted that the recent discussions have shifted market expectations towards anti-monopoly measures, leading to a withdrawal of funds from the polysilicon market and a potential breakdown of previously established price alliances [1][5]. Future Outlook - The polysilicon industry is currently facing significant challenges due to supply-demand imbalances and widespread losses among companies, necessitating a swift resolution to foster healthy development [4]. - Future pricing trends for polysilicon may be influenced by the recent regulatory actions, with expectations of price adjustments as market dynamics evolve [5].

2026年1月8日，多晶硅期货打开跌停板后，9日继续回落。 市场波动背后，一则会议纪要在业内广泛流传。会议纪要显示，2026年1月6日，市场监管总局约谈中国 光伏行业协会及通威股份（600438.SH）、协鑫科技（3800.HK）、大全能源（688303.SH）、新特能源 （1799.HK）、亚洲硅业和东方希望等多家多晶硅龙头企业，通报行业垄断风险并提出整改意见。 截至1月9日收盘，通威股份、协鑫科技、大全能源和新特能源股价均出现下跌，跌幅分别为3.83%、 7.89%、6.1%和7.81%。 对于上述约谈事宜，《中国经营报》记者未能从相关多晶硅企业获得实质性回应，但其中一家多晶硅企 业人士告诉记者，此次约谈与同行公司的举报有关。 一德期货分析师张海端向记者表示，多晶硅期货近日走势主要受约谈事件影响，多晶硅市场交易逻辑转 向反垄断预期，资金呈现撤离迹象，这也意味着此前光伏行业通过产能收储、自律挺价等行为形成的价 格联盟难以维系，光伏"反内卷"将更多依靠市场与法治手段推进。 一位多晶硅行业资深人士向记者表示，"反内卷"要坚持法治化、市场化，依法依规推进。约谈主要是回 应相关举报，针对的是设立平台公司推动产能整合 ...

1月9日，多晶硅期货多个合约延续了日前的走势继续走跌。截至今日收盘，主力2605合约报51300元/ 吨，收跌8.11%。同期，国内多晶硅领军企业的股价亦大幅下挫，通威股份（600438.SH）收跌3.83%， 大全能源（688303.SH）收跌6.10%，协鑫科技（03800.HK）收跌7.02%。 此前，在光伏"反内卷"的推动下，多晶硅的产量和市场价格表现均有不俗的进展。 记者查阅中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会（下称"硅业分会"）过往数据，2025年，多晶硅产量同比减少 28.4%。当前（截至2026年1月7日）硅料的现货价格较半年前（2025年6月底）的历史低位已回调超 70%。 此外，受三重因素影响，2026年伊始的多晶硅价格延续了涨势。据硅业分会7日分析，第一，硅料端开 工率持续下调，导致多晶硅单位产品综合成本上升，基于售价覆盖成本的定价机制，企业调价意愿较 强；第二，下游硅片、电池片环节价格陆续上调，提升了对硅料价格上涨的接受度；第三，组件端在现 有订单支撑下，对上游价格的传导表现出一定容忍度，支撑了采购意愿。 不过，供需失衡的基本面仍未改变，目前市场供应的收缩速度慢于需求的下滑速度。记者了解到，目 ...