电力设备及新能源 2025 年 8 月 25 日 行业周报 工信部召开光伏产业座谈会，菲律宾年内将举行海风拍卖 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2024/08/21 2025/01/21 2025/06/21 沪深300指数 电力设备及新能源 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 风电：菲律宾将在年内举行 3.3 吉瓦固定式海风拍卖。菲律宾能源部 (DOE)表示，计划于今年年底前举行第 5 次绿色能源拍卖计划 (GEA-5)， 其中，固定式海上风电项目预计拍卖规模 3.3GW，预计于 2028 年至 2030 年之间投运。GWEC 认为，中国和欧洲在未来将继续主导全球海上 风电发展，同时亚太、北美和拉美等新兴市场亦将迎来增长，预计到 2029 年中国和欧洲的累计装机全球市场份额将从 2024 年的 94%下降至 89%，到 2034 年下降至 84%，新兴海风市场中长期有望接棒发力。 GWEC 预计，2025-2034 年，亚太市场除中、日、韩外，菲律宾、越 南、澳大利亚等市场亦有望新增海风装机。菲律宾于 2025 年 6 月启动了 第五次绿色能 ...

证券研究报告 Q2 环比减亏，关注反内卷进展 通威股份 (600438 CH) 25Q2 公司毛利率 2.0%，环比+4.9pct，主要系国内光伏抢装驱动电池组件 价格提升，叠加公司加强内部管理，期间费用率大幅降低，25Q2 期间费用 率 为 8.5%， 环 比 下 降 5.0pct ，其中销售 /管 理 /财务费用率分别为 2.0/2.5/2.8%，环比下降 0.5/2.8/1.5pct。公司在手资金充沛，截至 25H1 末， 公司货币资金与交易性金融资产合计约 332 亿元；并储备丰富融资工具， 子公司永祥股份引入战略投资者增资扩股以偿还银行贷款并补充流动资金。 硅料龙头地位稳固，技术持续优化 25H1 公司硅料实现销量 16.13 万吨，全球市占率约 30%，位居行业第一。 公司硅料产品品质及成本继续保持领先水平，N 型出货比例达 90%以上， 硅耗降至 1.04kg/kg.si 以内，蒸汽基本实现零消耗，产品质量进一步提升， N 型料体金属降至 0.1ppbw 以内，表金属降低至 0.2ppbw 以内。 2025 年 8 月 25 日│中国内地 电源设备 通威股份发布半年报，2025H1 实现营收 4 ...

公司研究 2025 年 8 月 25 日 硅料&电池销量维持行业第一，组件海外市场销售保持高速增长 ——通威股份（600438.SH）2025 年中报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2025 年中报，2025H1 实现营业收入 405.09 亿元，同比-7.51%， 实现归母净利润-49.55 亿元，亏损幅度同比扩大；2025Q2 实现营业收入 245.75 亿元，同比+1.44%，实现归母净利润-23.63 亿元，环比亏损幅度收窄。 硅料销量全球市占率约 30%，产品各项指标维持行业领先。 2025H1 公司实现多晶硅销售 16.13 万吨，全球市占率约 30%保持行业第一，N 型出货比例达 90%以上，硅耗降至 1.04kg/kg.si 以内，蒸汽基本实现零消耗， 同时产品质量进一步提升，N 型料体金属降至 0.1ppbw 以内，表金属降至 0.2ppbw 以内，显著领先行业。 组件海外市场销售持续保持高速增长，"渔光一体"电站业务稳健发展。 2025H1 公司实现组件销售 24.52GW，单 W 非电池成本实现同比下降 11%，期 间费用同比下降 31%。公司保持国内外组件市场开拓力度，其中国内分布式出 货 ...

上市企业：隆基绿能（601012）,通威股份（600438）,阳光电源（300274）,晶澳科技（002459）,天合光 能（688599）,特变电工（600089）,正泰电器（601877）,TCL中环（002129）,林洋能源（601222）,上 能电气（300827） 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年6月中国太阳能发电量产量为501亿千瓦时，同比增长18.3%；2025年 1-6月中国太阳能发电量累计产量为2666.9亿千瓦时，累计增长20%。 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国太阳能发电站行业市场行情监测及投资前景研判报告》 ...

消息面上，国家能源局数据显示，1-7月全国电力市场交易电量同比增长3.2%，其中绿电交易电量同比 大幅增长43.2%，反映出清洁能源需求持续提升，与碳中和ETF基金重仓的光伏、风电等成分股表现形 成联动。 截至08月25日10:05，碳中和ETF基金(159885.SZ)上涨1.72%，其关联指数内地低碳(000977.CSI)上涨 1.70%；主要成分股中，阳光电源上涨3.80%，长江电力上涨1.58%，罗博特科上涨15.78%，大全能源上 涨14.59%，金风科技上涨10.04%。 券商研究方面，招商证券指出印尼提出大规模光储计划，光伏发展限制已逐步放宽，微电网式光储系统 在印尼具有巨大发展潜力，此次规划整体投资体量估算达万亿人民币级别，有望对分布式光伏、储能等 产业形成拉动；长江证券则关注高压一二次设备持续增长趋势，多品种出口迭创新高，反映出电网设备 领域的结构性机会。两家机构均从不同维度分析了电力设备及新能源行业的细分领域发展动态。 碳中和ETF基金（159885），联接基金（A类 012754，C类 012755，I类 022797） 关联产品： 关联个股： 宁德时代（300750）、长江电力（60 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the electric equipment industry [1] Core Views - The AIDC (Artificial Intelligence and Data Center) sector is expected to experience significant growth, with humanoid robots being a key catalyst for this expansion, projected to reach mass production in 2025 [1][4] - The report highlights the strong performance of the electric vehicle sector, with a projected annual growth rate of 25% to reach 16 million units sold in 2025 [4][8] - The energy storage market is anticipated to grow by 30%+ in the U.S. due to increasing demand and favorable policy adjustments, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30-40% expected from 2025 to 2028 [4][8] Industry Trends - The humanoid robot market is projected to have a potential market size exceeding 15 trillion yuan, with mass production expected to begin in 2025 [4][12] - The electric vehicle market in Europe is showing strong sales growth, with a 41% year-on-year increase in sales for nine countries [4][8] - The energy storage sector is seeing a surge in demand, particularly in emerging markets, with significant growth expected in both residential and commercial storage solutions [4][8] Company Performance - Companies such as Ningde Times, BYD, and Sunshine Power are highlighted as key players with strong growth potential in their respective sectors [4][7] - The report provides detailed financial performance metrics for various companies, indicating revenue growth and profitability trends [7] - Specific recommendations include investing in leading companies in the AIDC supply chain, electric vehicles, and energy storage sectors, emphasizing their competitive advantages and growth trajectories [4][5][7]

机构指出，展望未来，市场仍然有望继续上行。 【财经日历】 央行将开展6000亿元MLF操作； 国新办举行新闻发布会介绍"十四五"时期海关守护国门安全、促进高质量发展成就； 智界及问界秋季新品发布会； 中国恒大从港交所退市。 | | | | 名称 | 现价 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 45631.74 c 846.24 1.89% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 21496.53 c 396.22 = 1.88% | | 标普500 | 6466.91 c 96.74 1.52% | 上周五，美国股市主要股指大幅收高，道琼斯工业平均指数创下历史收盘新高，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上暗示近期可能降息，大幅提振市 场情绪。 截至收盘，道指上涨846.24点，涨幅1.89%，报45631.74点，创收盘历史新高。标普500指数上涨96.74点，涨幅1.52%，至6466.91点，终结此前的五连跌。纳 指大涨396.22点，涨幅1.88%，至21496.54点。 美国科技股七巨头集体走高。谷歌上涨3.17%，突破历史收盘高点，并在盘中创下新纪录。特斯拉涨 6.22%，亚马逊涨3. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery of profitability in the photovoltaic sector due to regulatory support and the end of chaotic price competition [20][21] - The wind power sector shows continuous improvement in profitability for leading turbine manufacturers, with increased confidence in Q3 performance [32][33] - The energy storage sector has seen significant growth, with new installations surpassing 100GW for the first time [40][41] - The electric equipment sector is experiencing a reversal in supply-demand dynamics, particularly in the U.S. transformer market [53][54] Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - Multiple regions have restarted automobile subsidy policies, indicating a trend towards more refined management [10] - Mitsui Mining & Smelting plans to expand high-end copper foil production capacity by 45% to meet demand driven by AI server needs [11] - Investment suggestions include companies with cost advantages and those leading in technology [12] Photovoltaic Sector - A meeting held by six ministries aims to regulate the photovoltaic industry, signaling an end to chaotic price competition [20][21] - The focus is on capacity clearance, anti-dumping measures, and quality supervision, benefiting leading companies with technological advantages [22] - Price pressures are expected to ease in the short term, with a shift towards technology and quality in the medium to long term [22][23] Wind Power Sector - Leading turbine manufacturers are seeing a recovery in gross margins, with a positive outlook for Q3 performance [32][33] - Key offshore wind projects are progressing, enhancing confidence in performance delivery [33] - Investment recommendations focus on companies benefiting from rising bidding prices and strong order backlogs [35] Energy Storage Sector - New energy storage installations reached 23.03GW/56.12GWh in the first half of 2025, with cumulative installations exceeding 100GW for the first time [40][41] - The report notes significant growth in lithium-ion battery and pumped storage technologies, with a shift towards diversified energy storage solutions [40] - Investment suggestions include leading storage integrators and companies benefiting from the growth of energy storage systems [47][50] Electric Equipment Sector - The U.S. transformer market is experiencing a reversal in supply-demand dynamics, with a decrease in supply-demand imbalance expected by 2030 [53][54] - The report highlights the impact of data center demand on three-phase transformer supply shortages [54] - Investment recommendations focus on companies with overseas expansion capabilities and those benefiting from digital grid reforms [56][58] Industrial Control and Robotics Sector - The launch of a new industrial control board by Jifang Industrial Control is noted, along with a significant order for humanoid robots [61][63] - The report suggests that traditional industrial sectors are showing signs of recovery, which may lead to improved orders for industrial control components [64][67] Hydrogen Energy Sector - Beijing has released a plan to promote hydrogen energy applications, with significant subsidies for industry development [70][71] - The establishment of a national hydrogen vehicle testing center is expected to support the growth of the hydrogen energy sector [70]

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 40.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -5.029 billion yuan, indicating a deeper loss compared to the previous year [1] - In Q2, the company achieved a revenue of 24.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was -2.36 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing challenges [1] - The company sold 161,300 tons of polysilicon in the first half of the year, holding a global market share of approximately 30%, maintaining its position as the industry leader [1] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" trend in the photovoltaic industry has led to a significant increase in polysilicon prices since July, with the average price of N-type dense material reaching 44,500 yuan per ton as of August 20, a 39% increase from previous lows [2] - The company achieved component sales of 24.52 GW in the first half of the year, with domestic distributed shipments ranking first in the country and overseas sales reaching 5.08 GW [2] - The company has sufficient funds to navigate through cycles, with cash and trading financial assets totaling approximately 33.229 billion yuan at the end of the reporting period [2] Group 3 - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to -6.16 billion yuan, 2.97 billion yuan, and 6.07 billion yuan, respectively, considering its competitive advantages in silicon materials and battery segments [2] - The company continues to lead in battery cell sales with 49.89 GW in the first half of the year, maintaining industry-leading metrics in product quality and efficiency [2] - The industry faces intensified competition and potential demand shortfalls, impacting product price fluctuations [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, considering it as one of the potential beneficiaries of the ongoing "anti-involution" in the industry [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 40.5 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -5.029 billion RMB, indicating a deeper loss compared to the previous year [1]. - The company achieved a sales volume of 161,300 tons of polysilicon, holding a global market share of approximately 30%, leading the industry. The price of polysilicon has seen a significant increase of 39% from its previous low, which is expected to gradually cover costs and restore profitability [2]. - The company sold 24.52 GW of solar modules in the first half of the year, with explosive growth in overseas markets, particularly in Poland, Romania, and Hungary [2]. - The company maintained its position as the global leader in battery cell sales, with a volume of 49.89 GW, and continues to lead in key competitive metrics such as A-grade ratio and conversion efficiency [3]. - The company has sufficient cash reserves, totaling approximately 33.229 billion RMB, which supports its ability to navigate through market cycles [3]. Financial Forecast - The forecast for the company's net profit attributable to shareholders has been adjusted to -6.16 billion RMB for 2025, 2.972 billion RMB for 2026, and 6.071 billion RMB for 2027, reflecting the competitive advantages in the silicon and battery segments [4]. - Revenue projections for 2023 are set at 139.104 billion RMB, with a growth rate of -2.33% for 2024 and a recovery expected in subsequent years [8]. - The diluted earnings per share are projected to be -1.563 RMB in 2024, improving to 0.660 RMB in 2026 and 1.348 RMB in 2027 [8].