每经记者｜蔡鼎 每经编辑｜董兴生 A股2025年年度业绩预告披露正式收官。 Wind金融终端数据显示，截至1月31日，除70多家已披露年报的公司外，A股市场已有约3000家上市公司对外披露了2025年度业绩预告，覆盖范围广泛，为 市场判断全年业绩走势提供了重要参考。 具体来看，沪深北三市共有2956家公司披露了2025年度业绩预告。其中，有705家公司业绩预增、420家公司业绩预减、987家公司续亏，另有374家公司预计 扭亏为盈。 总的来看，剔除扭亏为盈的上市公司后，宁波富邦（SH600768）同比预增超30倍居首，万科A（SZ000002）预计亏损820亿元，成"亏损王"。 剔除扭亏为盈的上市公司后，宁波富邦以3099.59%~4379.43%的归母净利润增幅位居榜首，成为业绩预告中的黑马。公告显示，宁波富邦预计2025年实现归 母净利润5000万元~7000万元。不过，据公司公告，其归母净利润大增系非经常性损益较上年同期大幅增长所致，主要原因为公司将持有的宁波中华纸业有 限公司2.5%股权以3.7亿元的价格转让给金光纸业（中国）投资有限公司，导致公司所持的宁波中华纸业有限公司2.5%股权公允价值变动产生 ...

Core Insights - The performance of A-share listed companies for 2025 is showing a "polarization" trend, with significant differences in industry prosperity affecting earnings, where some companies achieve substantial profit growth while others, particularly in real estate and photovoltaic sectors, face losses [2][10] Group 1: Earnings Reports - As of January 30, over 70 companies have disclosed their 2025 annual reports, with more than 2200 companies providing earnings forecasts, indicating a clearer market outlook [2][7] - Among the companies that have reported, 51 achieved year-on-year revenue growth, highlighting the resilience of profit growth [3][6] - The top three companies in revenue growth are Shouyao Holdings, Lier Technology, and Xiamen Tungsten, with revenue increases of approximately 120%, 82.97%, and 47.84% respectively [4][5] Group 2: Profit Growth - A total of 47 companies reported year-on-year growth in net profit, with Wohua Pharmaceutical and Lier Chemical showing particularly strong performance, with net profit increases of 162.93% and 122.33% respectively [6] - Wohua Pharmaceutical achieved a revenue of 0.817 billion with a net profit of 0.096 billion, while Lier Chemical reported a revenue of 9.008 billion and a net profit of 0.479 billion [6] Group 3: Earnings Forecasts - Approximately 900 out of 2200 companies that disclosed earnings forecasts are expected to see profit increases, indicating strong growth momentum in the A-share market [7][10] - Notably, over 60 companies anticipate net profit growth exceeding 500%, with 20 companies expecting over 1000% growth, showcasing robust development potential [7][10] - Ningbo Fubang stands out with an expected net profit increase of 3099.59% to 4379.43%, driven by rising silver prices and asset optimization [8][9] Group 4: Loss Predictions - A significant number of companies, particularly in the real estate and photovoltaic sectors, are expected to report losses, with major firms like China Fortune Land Development and Greenland Holdings forecasting losses of 16 billion to 24 billion and 16 billion to 19 billion respectively [10] - The photovoltaic sector is also heavily impacted, with companies like Tongwei and TCL Zhonghuan predicting losses of 9 billion to 10 billion and 8.2 billion to 9.6 billion respectively [10]

2026年1月底，全球光伏与农业双龙头通威股份发布2025年年度业绩预亏公告。经公司财务部门初步测 算，预计2025年年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为-100亿元至-90亿元，同比由盈转亏；预计扣 除非经常性损益后的净利润为-98亿元至-88亿元。 作为行业巨头，通威股份此次业绩预告折射出光伏行业在经历高速扩张后，正面临产能过剩、价格竞争 激烈的周期性挑战。 在业绩预告中，公司管理层将此次业绩承压的主要原因，归结于光伏行业当前所经历的特殊发展阶段。 过去几年，在绿色能源转型的全球共识下，光伏产业经历了快速增长期，产业链各环节的产能也随之大 幅扩张。然而，随着市场供需关系的变化，行业在近期进入了阶段性调整期。产业链上下游产品价格均 经历了一定幅度的下行，这无疑对包括龙头企业在内的所有市场参与者的盈利空间构成了普遍压力。行 业正面临从规模扩张向质量与效益提升转变的关键节点。 此次业绩预告，并非通威股份一家企业面临的独有挑战，它在一定程度上反映了当前光伏制造业所面临 的共性环境。多家同行业主要企业此前也释放出类似的信号，预示着整个行业正处于一轮深度调整与整 合的过程之中。这种调整的核心在于，过去由产能驱动的高速 ...

消息面上，通威股份、隆基绿能、爱旭股份相继发布2025年度业绩预告，均为亏损状态。然而在谈到预 亏的原因时，多家公司均提到了白银价格上涨对业绩的影响。隆基绿能在公告中指出，四季度银浆、硅 料成本大幅上涨，显著推升了硅片、电池及组件产品成本。通威股份在谈到亏损原因时也提到"白银等 部分核心原材料价格持续上涨"。 据悉，银浆是太阳能电池板的关键材料，用于制作导电触点以传输电池产生的电力。数据显示，电池片 中使用的微量白银目前占组件总成本的29%，而2023年仅为3.4%，去年为14%。光伏行业积极通过技术 调整来化解白银价格上涨的压力，加速用铜等更廉价材料替代白银的计划来做出应对。 智通财经APP获悉，光伏股再度走低，截至发稿，彩虹新能源(00438)跌6.45%，报2.03港元；福莱特玻 璃(06865)跌5.76%，报10.97港元；信义光能(00968)跌4.29%，报3.35港元；新特能源(01799)跌3.54%， 报7.64港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a decline, with several key companies reporting significant losses for 2025, primarily attributed to rising silver prices impacting production costs [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Rainbow New Energy (00438) shares fell by 6.45%, trading at HKD 2.03 [1] - Flat Glass (601865) shares decreased by 5.76%, trading at HKD 10.97 [1] - Xinyi Solar (00968) shares dropped by 4.29%, trading at HKD 3.35 [1] - New Special Energy (01799) shares declined by 3.54%, trading at HKD 7.64 [1] Group 2: Financial Forecasts - Tongwei Co. (600438), Longi Green Energy (601012), and Aiko Solar (600732) all issued profit warnings for 2025, indicating expected losses [1] - Longi Green Energy cited significant increases in silver paste and silicon material costs as a major factor for the anticipated losses [1] - Tongwei Co. also mentioned that the continuous rise in prices of core raw materials, including silver, is contributing to their financial difficulties [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - Silver paste is a critical material in solar panels, used for creating conductive contacts to transmit electricity generated by the cells [1] - The current usage of silver in battery cells accounts for 29% of the total cost of components, a significant increase from 3.4% in 2023 and 14% last year [1] - The photovoltaic industry is actively seeking to mitigate the impact of rising silver prices by accelerating plans to replace silver with cheaper materials like copper [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing efforts by regulatory authorities to address the "involution" issues within the photovoltaic (PV) industry, emphasizing the need for a return to rational competition and sustainable development [2][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The Chinese photovoltaic industry has been a global leader in scale, industrial chain layout, technology, and application, with manufacturing output increasing from 750 billion yuan in 2021 to 1.75 trillion yuan in 2023, and expected to remain above 1 trillion yuan in 2024 [2]. - By 2025, the installed capacity of wind and solar power in China is projected to exceed 1.8 billion kilowatts, with solar power capacity reaching 1.2 billion kilowatts, marking a year-on-year growth of 35.4% [2]. Group 2: Challenges Faced - The rapid expansion of the domestic PV industry has led to significant supply-demand mismatches and chaotic low-price competition, resulting in severe "involution" issues [3]. - From 2022 to 2025, the price of domestic PV modules has dropped from 2 yuan per watt to around 0.6 yuan, while silicon material prices have plummeted from a peak of 300,000 yuan per ton to about 55,000 yuan, causing many companies to sell products below mainstream cash cost lines [4]. - As a result, the industry has faced widespread losses since the fourth quarter of 2023, with major companies like Longi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, and Tongwei expected to report losses ranging from 60 billion to 100 billion yuan in 2025 [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Actions - In response to the chaotic situation, regulatory authorities have initiated multiple measures to promote "anti-involution" governance in the PV industry, including capacity regulation, curbing low-price competition, and supporting industry self-discipline [5]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for PV products starting April 1, which is seen as a move to end the "rebate subsidy era" and promote rational pricing in foreign markets, ultimately enhancing the industry's international competitiveness [5]. Group 4: Industry Recovery Signs - Benefiting from the ongoing "anti-involution" efforts, the PV industry is reportedly approaching a cyclical bottom, with profitability gradually improving in the main industry chain [6]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, 31 companies reported a total loss of 31.04 billion yuan, with the third quarter loss narrowing by approximately 46.7% to 6.42 billion yuan, and the gross margin for the main industry chain reaching 5.61%, up from 3.64% in the previous quarters [6]. - As of November 2025, the average prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules have increased by 38.9%, 2.2%, 0.4%, and 2.3% respectively compared to the beginning of the year [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is undergoing a governance initiative to combat "involution" and promote rational competition, with the government emphasizing the need for coordinated efforts across various departments to address issues such as overcapacity, low-price competition, and quality control [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Governance and Regulation - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) held a meeting on January 28, 2026, to discuss the "anti-involution" measures in the photovoltaic sector, highlighting the need for collaboration among departments to ensure a return to healthy competition [1]. - The MIIT aims to utilize market-oriented and legal methods to regulate the industry, including capacity control, standard setting, quality supervision, and intellectual property protection [1][3]. - The government has initiated multiple actions since the second half of 2025 to address the chaotic state of the photovoltaic industry, including a meeting on August 19, 2025, to emphasize capacity regulation and support industry self-discipline [3]. Group 2: Industry Performance and Financial Impact - The domestic photovoltaic manufacturing output value surged from 750 billion yuan in 2021 to 1.75 trillion yuan in 2023, with expectations to maintain over 1 trillion yuan in 2024 [1]. - However, the industry faces significant challenges, including a supply-demand mismatch and severe low-price competition, leading to widespread losses since the fourth quarter of 2023 [2]. - Major companies like Longi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, and Tongwei Co. are projected to incur substantial losses in 2025, with estimates ranging from 60 billion to 100 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Quality and Compliance Issues - The photovoltaic industry has seen a decline in product quality, with the overall qualification rate of photovoltaic modules dropping from 100% in 2019 to 62.9% in 2024, indicating that over one-third of products have quality issues [2]. - In 2025, nearly 16% of the components tested from 36 companies were found to be non-compliant, with significant issues related to mechanical load and power misrepresentation [2]. Group 4: Market Recovery and Profitability - The ongoing "anti-involution" efforts are beginning to show positive effects, with the profitability of the main photovoltaic industry chain improving in the first three quarters of 2025, despite a total loss of 310.39 billion yuan among 31 companies [4]. - The gross profit margin for the main industry chain reached 5.61% in the third quarter of 2025, an increase from 3.64% in the previous quarters [4]. - By November 2025, the average prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules had increased by 38.9%, 2.2%, 0.4%, and 2.3%, respectively, compared to the beginning of the year [4].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic energy storage industry is experiencing rapid growth, with significant advancements in technology and market potential, projected to become a core sector in the new energy revolution over the next decade [1][2]. Industry Definition and Classification - Photovoltaic energy storage systems combine solar power generation with storage technology, enhancing energy efficiency and grid stability [2]. - The main components include photovoltaic arrays, storage devices, inverters, and control systems [2]. Current Development Status - The supply of core hardware for photovoltaic energy storage systems is now capable of large-scale production, with a compound annual growth rate of 51.25% in industry output value from 2020 to 2024 [2][3]. - By the end of 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic energy storage projects in China is expected to reach 15.55 GW/36.60 GWh, with new installations of 7.31 GW/18.42 GWh [3]. Market Size and Fluctuations - The market size for photovoltaic energy storage in China is projected to grow from 22.30 billion yuan in 2020 to 115.68 billion yuan in 2024, indicating significant volatility influenced by installation numbers and system price changes [4]. Industry Chain - The upstream of the photovoltaic energy storage industry includes key materials like polysilicon and silicon wafers, while the midstream consists of system integrators responsible for design and assembly [4][6]. Policy Environment - Various policies have been introduced to promote the development of new energy storage technologies, including support for virtual power plants and smart microgrids [6]. Competitive Landscape - As of the end of 2025, there are 10,357 manufacturing enterprises in the photovoltaic energy storage sector in China, with 1,813 new companies added in 2025 [8]. - Major players in the industry include Trina Solar, Canadian Solar, and JinkoSolar, with a trend towards vertical integration in production [8]. Development Trends - The integration of photovoltaic and storage technologies is leading to optimized energy utilization and system stability [9]. - Accelerated technological advancements are evident, with breakthroughs in high-efficiency batteries and new storage technologies like sodium-ion and flow batteries [9]. - The market mechanisms are maturing, allowing energy storage to participate as an independent market entity [10]. - The industry is witnessing increased concentration, with leading companies expanding their market share through mergers and acquisitions [11]. - Chinese companies are actively expanding into international markets, enhancing their global influence in the photovoltaic energy storage sector [12].

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of "space photovoltaics" is reshaping the value proposition for Chinese solar companies, positioning them as essential players in Elon Musk's space energy vision [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in the A-share market for solar stocks is driven by Musk's announcement at the Davos Forum about SpaceX and Tesla's plan to establish a solar production base with an annual capacity of 200GW, which is projected to meet nearly a quarter of the U.S. electricity demand [1][3]. - The excitement in the capital market is not merely speculative; it reflects a structural shift in the global energy landscape, with China having a significant role due to its established solar manufacturing capabilities [4][6]. Group 2: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The solar industry has faced significant challenges over the past two years, including overcapacity and price wars, leading to widespread losses among companies, with projected losses totaling around 400 billion yuan [7]. - Musk's focus on space photovoltaics offers a new growth narrative for the industry, potentially alleviating some of the pressures from the current overcapacity situation [7][8]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The global space photovoltaic market is expected to reach between $500 billion and $1 trillion by 2030, driven by the removal of traditional constraints faced by ground-based solar [3]. - The technology roadmap for space photovoltaics is anticipated to evolve through three phases, starting with GaAs cells for high-value applications, followed by HJT technology for low Earth orbit satellites, and eventually transitioning to perovskite tandem cells for large-scale deployments [9][10]. Group 4: Chinese Supply Chain Advantage - Chinese companies dominate over 70% of the global solar manufacturing supply chain, making them indispensable for any large-scale space photovoltaic initiatives, regardless of where the production is localized [5][11]. - The integration of space photovoltaics into China's existing energy infrastructure and policy frameworks positions the country favorably for future developments in this sector [5][12]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Various companies are exploring different technological pathways in the space photovoltaic sector, with some focusing on efficiency breakthroughs and others leveraging existing aerospace supply chain experience [11][12]. - The competition in space photovoltaics will involve not only technological advancements but also the ability to meet stringent aerospace certification requirements, which can create significant barriers to entry for new players [11][12].

Group 1 - A significant number of A-share companies are reporting losses, with over 500 companies expected to post losses for 2025, reflecting a shift in the market where loss-making companies are disclosing their financials earlier than usual [1][3][22] - The real estate and construction sectors are particularly affected, with companies like Huaxia Happiness expected to report losses between 16 billion to 24 billion yuan, making it the "loss king" [4][24] - The overall performance of A-share companies is under pressure, with 709 out of 1165 companies reporting declining performance, which is approximately 60% [1][22] Group 2 - The trend of loss-making companies disclosing their financials is seen as a sign of market rationalization, with companies aiming to manage expectations and release financial pressures [2][21] - The solar energy sector is facing significant challenges, with leading companies like Tongwei Co. and Longi Green Energy expected to report substantial losses due to overcapacity and price competition [6][24] - The real estate sector is also experiencing widespread losses, with over 30 A-share real estate companies reporting poor performance, and only a few showing positive results [7][25] Group 3 - Companies like Zhichun Technology and Siyuanjie are facing severe stock price declines following their loss announcements, indicating investor reactions to poor financial forecasts [12][30] - The overall market sentiment is expected to be negatively impacted in the short term due to the concentration of negative financial disclosures, but this could lead to improved market pricing efficiency in the long run [15][32] - The performance of A-share companies is anticipated to show a "total pressure, structural brilliance" pattern, with traditional industries like real estate and solar energy under significant strain [16][33][34]