Core Viewpoint - Xiamen Guomao's stock price closed at 6.31 yuan on August 5, 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.01 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 121,300 hands and a transaction amount of 76 million yuan [1] Company Overview - Xiamen Guomao is a comprehensive enterprise group engaged in supply chain management, financial services, and health technology, operating within the trade industry sector and related to the economic concept of Fujian region [1] Financial Performance - On August 5, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 10.6788 million yuan, accounting for 0.08% of the circulating market value. Over the past five trading days, the cumulative net outflow reached 16.2248 million yuan, representing 0.12% of the circulating market value [1]

8月4日午后，国证自由现金流指数小幅回调，成分股方面涨跌互现，捷佳伟创、凌云股份、欧派家居等 领涨%；南京新百、华人健康、红旗连锁等领跌。自由现金流ETF（159201）跟随指数调整，最新报价 1.05元。拉长时间看，截至2025年8月1日，自由现金流ETF近1月累计上涨2.45%，涨幅排名可比基金首 位。 方正证券认为，自由现金流是衡量企业真实盈利能力与分红潜力的前瞻性指标，高股息的长期维持必须 以高自由现金流为基础，长期具备高自由现金流的企业更能保障未来持续分红，实现对股东的稳定回 报。随着长线资金投资策略的不断迭代，自由现金流契合风险规避与收益稳定性需求，或将成为险资等 长线重要配置方向。 数据显示，截至2025年7月31日，国证自由现金流指数前十大权重股分别为上汽集团、中国海油、美的 集团、格力电器、洛阳钼业、中国铝业、厦门国贸、上海电气、正泰电器、中国动力，前十大权重股合 计占比57.66%。 自由现金流ETF（159201）紧密跟踪国证自由现金流指数，自由现金流策略弥补了传统红利策略在行业 覆盖广度和未来表现预判方面的不足，聚焦于内生增长能力，强调财务健康与可持续性，更契合追求长 期成长与资本增值 ...

Core Points - The AMAC Leasing Business Index (AMAC Business, H30037) decreased by 0.32% to 3186.16 points, with a trading volume of 21.302 billion [1] - Over the past month, the AMAC Leasing Business Index has increased by 5.51%, 12.42% over the last three months, and 12.57% year-to-date [1] - The index is based on the classification of industries as per the guidelines from the China Securities Association, comprising 43 industry classification indices [1] Index Holdings - The top ten holdings of the AMAC Leasing Business Index are: Focus Media (14.13%), China Duty Free Group (11.99%), Small Commodity City (11.19%), LEO Group (4.73%), BlueFocus Communication Group (4.39%), Hainan Huatian (3.42%), Jianfa Group (3.37%), Bohai Leasing (2.99%), Province Advertising Group (2.54%), and Xiamen International Trade (1.8%) [1] - The market share of the AMAC Leasing Business Index is 58.17% from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and 41.83% from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [1] Industry Composition - The industry composition of the AMAC Leasing Business Index shows that industrial sector accounts for 42.88%, communication services for 38.31%, consumer discretionary for 15.69%, real estate for 1.81%, and information technology for 1.32% [2]

Group 1 - The core index, the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index, has decreased by 0.37% as of July 25, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, including leading gains from companies like Lianxu Electronics and Huaren Health, while companies like Yaxiang Integration and Zhejiang Construction led the declines [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) also fell by 0.37%, with the latest price at 1.07 yuan. Over the past week, the ETF has seen a cumulative increase of 3.47%, ranking first among comparable funds [1] - In terms of liquidity, the Free Cash Flow ETF had a turnover of 0.91% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 36.4183 million yuan. The average daily transaction volume over the past week reached 335 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [1] Group 2 - The Free Cash Flow ETF has attracted a total of 170 million yuan in the last five trading days, with its latest scale reaching 4.007 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception and ranking first among comparable funds [1] - The management fee for the Free Cash Flow ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it the lowest among comparable funds [3] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index accounted for 57.97% of the index, including SAIC Motor, China National Offshore Oil, Midea Group, and Gree Electric [3][5]

Group 1: Guangdong Financial Support - Guangdong has provided credit for 1,812 "white list" projects, totaling 1.09 trillion yuan, with 830 billion yuan already disbursed, leading the nation in project numbers, credit amounts, and disbursement [1] Group 2: Shanghai Land Auction - In the first day of the sixth batch of land auctions in Shanghai, five plots were sold for a total of 18.53 billion yuan, with China Overseas Land & Investment winning two plots for 11.888 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Shenzhen Housing Supply - Shenzhen plans to supply 40,000 units of commercial housing and 40 hectares of land for affordable housing in 2025, aiming to balance the housing market supply and demand [3] Group 4: Jiuzhou Home's Leadership Change - Jiuzhou Home's actual controller, Wang Linpeng, has returned to work after the lifting of his detention, which is expected to enhance the company's strategic decision-making and internal stability [4] Group 5: Diou Home's Fund Allocation - Diou Home plans to permanently allocate 477 million yuan of remaining fundraising to supplement working capital, optimizing its financial structure and enhancing operational flexibility [5]

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy is becoming a new focus in the market, with expectations for a three-stage development: policy anticipation, price increases, and demand expansion [2] - The photovoltaic industry is expected to see a supply-demand turning point due to capacity clearance, particularly in the polysilicon and photovoltaic glass segments, with companies like Tongwei Co., Ltd., LONGi Green Energy, Daqo New Energy, and GCL-Poly Energy being highlighted [3] - High-dividend coal companies and turnaround coking companies such as China Coal Energy and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company are noted for their potential [4] Group 2 - The stabilization and recovery of bulk commodity prices driven by the "anti-involution" trend will benefit the profitability of bulk supply chain companies like Xiamen Xiangyu, Xiamen International Trade, and Zheshang Zhongtuo [5]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) has shown strong performance, with a 1.80% increase, driven by significant gains in constituent stocks such as Tunnel Co. (600820) and Shanxi Coking Coal (000983) [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The National State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) rose by 1.83%, marking a third consecutive increase [1] - Key stocks in the coal sector, including Shanxi Coking Coal and Lu'an Environmental Energy, experienced a 10% limit up [1] - The coal sector is expected to maintain a positive outlook due to strong demand and favorable pricing conditions [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Everbright Securities noted that the "anti-involution" expectations are strengthening, predicting a bullish trend for coal prices as the peak demand season approaches [1] - Guosen Securities highlighted the resilience of coal demand and the potential for price rebounds in the second half of the year, supported by improved supply-demand dynamics [1] - The coal sector demonstrated strong performance metrics in Q1 2025, including a low debt-to-asset ratio of 44.7%, a net profit margin of 12.7%, and a relatively high return on equity (ROE) [1] Group 3: Index Composition - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index comprises 100 listed companies with high and stable cash dividend yields, reflecting the overall performance of high-dividend state-owned enterprises [2] - The top five industries represented in the index are banking, coal, transportation, real estate, and media [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 15.81% of the total index weight, with significant contributions from companies like COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) and Jizhong Energy (000937) [2][4]

Group 1 - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index decreased by 0.08% as of July 22, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, including Dongfang Electric and Zhejiang Construction Investment hitting the upper limit, while Shanghai Steel Union and others led the decline [1][3] - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) fell by 0.19%, with the latest price at 1.06 yuan, and it recorded a turnover rate of 2.85% with a transaction volume of 112 million yuan [1] - Over the past nine days, the Free Cash Flow ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 94.76 million yuan, totaling 232 million yuan, averaging 25.79 million yuan in daily net inflow [1] Group 2 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index accounted for 57.97% of the index, including SAIC Motor, China National Offshore Oil, Midea Group, and Gree Electric [3] - The latest financing buy-in amount for the Free Cash Flow ETF reached 6.89 million yuan, with a financing balance of 26.45 million yuan [3] Group 3 - The top ten stocks by weight in the Free Cash Flow ETF include SAIC Motor (10.18%), Midea Group (9.28%), and Gree Electric (7.56%), with varying performance in terms of price changes [5]

Overall Performance Overview - The stock index futures concept stocks showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the relevant sector index rising by 1.8%, outperforming the market by 0.5 percentage points [1] - Among the 32 constituent stocks, 24 rose and 8 fell, with a 75% increase in the number of rising stocks [1] - Leading stocks such as China Zhongqi and Hongye Co. saw significant gains of 5.2% and 4.1% respectively, while Xiamen Guomao rose by 3.3% [1] - The trading volume in the sector increased by 20% compared to the previous trading day, indicating a notable rise in market participation [1] Influencing Factors Analysis - The increase in activity in the stock index futures market is the core driving factor, with the average daily trading volume of the CSI 300 stock index futures exceeding 1.5 million contracts, a 35% increase from last month [2] - Regulatory signals indicating an optimization of stock index futures trading have improved performance expectations for related concept stocks [2] - The heightened volatility in the A-share market has increased investors' demand for hedging through stock index futures, benefiting brokerage-related concept stocks [2] - Positive domestic economic data has bolstered market confidence in the financial sector, indirectly benefiting stock index futures concept stocks [2] Subsector Performance - Brokerage concept stocks performed prominently, with CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities rising by 2.8% and 2.5% respectively due to their high proportion of stock index futures brokerage business [3] - Futures company concept stocks showed significant differentiation, with leading firms like Nanhua Futures rising by 3.7%, while smaller firms had gains mostly below 1% [3] - Among listed companies with stakes in futures firms, Zhejiang Dongfang (holding a stake in Yong'an Futures) rose by 3.2%, and Xinhuhongbao increased by 2.1%, outperforming the sector average [3] - Larger market capitalization stocks (over 50 billion) had an average increase of 2.3%, while smaller stocks (under 10 billion) averaged a 1.7% increase, indicating a preference for more liquid assets [3] Fund Flow Analysis - Main funds saw a net inflow of 850 million yuan into the stock index futures concept stocks, with China Zhongqi attracting a net purchase of 120 million yuan and Hongye Co. 80 million yuan, together accounting for nearly a quarter of the sector's funds [4] - Northbound funds showed net buying in brokerage concept stocks, with CITIC Securities receiving a net inflow of 50 million yuan, while some smaller futures company stocks experienced slight selling [4] - The sector has seen net inflows from main funds for three consecutive trading days, totaling 2 billion yuan, indicating sustained interest in the sector [4] Technical Analysis - The stock index futures concept stocks index has broken through the previous resistance level (approximately 1200 points) and closed at 1220 points, marking a new high in nearly three months [5] - The moving average system shows a bullish arrangement, with the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages all trending upward, providing effective support [5] - The MACD indicator is operating above the zero axis, with the red histogram slightly lengthening compared to the previous day, indicating stable bullish momentum [5] - The volume-price relationship is favorable, confirming the effectiveness of the breakout and opening up short-term upward space [5] Institutional Perspectives Summary - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities noted a clear upward trend in the activity of the stock index futures market, with related concept stocks expected to release performance elasticity, maintaining an "overweight" rating for the sector [7] - Guotai Junan analyzed that the expectation of policy optimization will continue to catalyze the sector's performance, with brokerage concept stocks offering valuation advantages and performance certainty, warranting close attention [7] - Kaiyuan Securities cautioned against the risk of stock index futures trading volume falling short of expectations, recommending a focus on leading enterprises and avoiding chasing small-cap stocks [7] - Minsheng Securities predicted that if the trading fee reduction policy is implemented, the sector could see a short-term increase of 10%-15% [7] Correlation Analysis with the Market - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.6%, while the stock index futures concept stocks' sector increased by 1.8%, significantly outperforming the market, indicating strong independent market characteristics [8] - Historical data shows that when the growth rate of stock index futures trading volume exceeds 30%, the correlation between the sector and the market weakens, making it easier to achieve excess returns [8] - The current increase in volatility in the A-share market complements the hedging attributes of stock index futures concept stocks, leading to a preference for this sector during turbulent market conditions, which is expected to continue for some time [8] Investment Strategy Recommendations - Short-term investors are advised to focus on trading opportunities in leading stocks within the sector, such as China Zhongqi and Hongye Co., with a suggested profit-taking line of 5% and a stop-loss line of 3% [9] - Long-term investors should consider positioning in brokerage concept stocks with strong performance certainty, such as CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities, which combine growth in stock index futures business with stable traditional operations, suitable for holding for 1-3 months [9] - Risk-averse investors may opt for blue-chip stocks with stakes in leading futures companies, such as Xiamen Guomao, which exhibit lower volatility and stable dividends [9] - Caution is advised against chasing small-cap stocks that have surged over 10% recently to mitigate the risk of pullbacks [9]

Group 1 - The blockage of the Suez Canal by the "Ever Given" ship highlighted the vulnerability of global supply chains, causing an estimated loss of $6 to $10 billion per week due to the disruption of 422 vessels carrying goods worldwide [1][3] - Supply chain services are essential for integrating logistics, finance, legal, and customs operations, utilizing data and algorithms to create a protective barrier for global trade [3][4] - Financial service coverage significantly enhances supply chain resilience, with a 10% increase in coverage correlating to a 30% rise in resilience index [4] Group 2 - The 2024 forecast indicates that China's export credit insurance will exceed $1 trillion for the first time, with record high export penetration rates and customer service numbers [4] - Innovative financial solutions, such as Standard Chartered's "SC Global Chain," are being introduced to support companies entering international markets [4] - The true competitive advantage for globally positioned companies lies in their ability to utilize data-driven warning systems rather than traditional physical assets [5]