Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 46.67, compared to the current price of RMB 40.13 [1][8]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of RMB 2.87 billion (+0.96%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 501 million (+0.20%). The recurring net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 496 million (+3.18%) [8]. - The company is focusing on expanding its dental services through a "regional main hospital + branch" model, having completed five major clusters in Zhejiang province. The revenue from these clusters in 2024 is expected to be RMB 548 million, RMB 382 million, and RMB 184 million respectively [8]. - The company is shifting its strategy for provincial expansion from traditional self-built models to a combination of acquisitions and asset-light franchising, aiming for a national network at lower costs and higher efficiency. Revenue from outside the province is projected to be RMB 277 million (+4.83%) in 2024 [8]. Financial Summary - The company’s financial performance shows a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the forecast period. Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 2.87 billion in 2024 to RMB 3.40 billion by 2027, with net profit increasing from RMB 501 million to RMB 665 million in the same period [5][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast has been adjusted to RMB 1.26 for 2025, RMB 1.36 for 2026, and a new forecast of RMB 1.49 for 2027 [8]. - The company’s medical service revenue is expected to reach RMB 2.73 billion in 2024, with significant contributions from dental implants, orthodontics, pediatrics, restoration, and general services [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 46.67, compared to the current price of RMB 40.13 [1][8]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of RMB 2.87 billion (+0.96%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 501 million (+0.20%). The recurring net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 496 million (+3.18%) [8]. - The company is adjusting its EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to RMB 1.26 and RMB 1.36, respectively, and adding a forecast for 2027 of RMB 1.49. The 2025 PE is set at 37X [8]. - The dental implant segment shows strong performance, while orthodontics is under short-term pressure due to consumption downgrade. By the end of 2024, the company will have over 260,000 sqm of medical service area and 3.53 million outpatient visits [8]. - The company has completed five major dental clusters in Zhejiang province and is expanding its "regional main hospital + branch" model [8]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue and net profit projections for the coming years are as follows: - 2023A: Revenue of RMB 2.85 billion, Net Profit of RMB 500 million - 2024A: Revenue of RMB 2.87 billion, Net Profit of RMB 501 million - 2025E: Revenue of RMB 3.00 billion, Net Profit of RMB 564 million - 2026E: Revenue of RMB 3.20 billion, Net Profit of RMB 609 million - 2027E: Revenue of RMB 3.40 billion, Net Profit of RMB 665 million [4][5]. - The company’s net asset return rate is projected to be around 12.9% for 2025 and 13.0% for 2027 [5]. Business Expansion Strategy - The company is shifting its provincial expansion strategy from traditional self-built models to a combination of acquisitions and asset-light franchising, aiming for a national network at lower costs and higher efficiency [8]. - The company has opened 44 Dandelion branches in 2024, with 60% achieving break-even, and plans to open additional branches in 2025 [8].

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The medical services sector is under pressure in 2024 due to high base effects, but macroeconomic improvements are expected to drive a sustained recovery [2][5] - In Q1 2025, the demand for medical services has stabilized, leading to continuous profit improvement [3][5] - The gross profit margin has slightly declined, with 2024's margin at 37.02%, down 1.24 percentage points, and Q1 2025's margin at 36.14% [4][9] Summary by Sections 2024 Performance - The overall revenue for the medical services sector in 2024 is projected at 73.908 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.29% - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.857 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.37% - The net profit excluding non-recurring items is forecasted at 4.229 billion yuan, down 22.95% [2][9] Q1 2025 Performance - The total revenue for the medical services sector in Q1 2025 is 18.005 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.48% - The net profit attributable to shareholders is 1.325 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 16.24% - The net profit excluding non-recurring items is 1.266 billion yuan, up 18.21% [3][9] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for 2024 is 37.02%, with a slight decline to 36.14% in Q1 2025 - The operating cash flow for Q1 2025 is 2.332 billion yuan, with a cash flow to net profit ratio of 158.22% [4][7]

证券代码：600763 证券简称：通策医疗 公告编号：2025-009 通策医疗股份有限公司 关于召开2024年年度股东大会的通知 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 一、 召开会议的基本情况 2024年年度股东大会 (四)现场会议召开的日期、时间和地点 召开的日期时间：2025 年 6 月 5 日 14 点 30 分 召开地点：杭州市西湖区双口井巷 1 号留风轩通策医疗总部大楼 7 楼报告厅 (五)网络投票的系统、起止日期和投票时间。 网络投票系统：上海证券交易所股东大会网络投票系统 网络投票起止时间：自2025 年 6 月 5 日 至2025 年 6 月 5 日 采用上海证券交易所网络投票系统，通过交易系统投票平台的投票时间为股 东大会召开当日的交易时间段，即 9:15-9:25,9:30-11:30，13:00-15:00；通过 互联网投票平台的投票时间为股东大会召开当日的 9:15-15:00。 1 股东大会召开日期：2025年6月5日 本次股东大会采用的网络投票系统：上海证券交易所股东大会 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tongce Medical, a leading player in the dental medical service sector in A-shares, reported a nearly stagnant growth in total revenue and net profit for 2024, facing challenges from both the impact of dental implant centralized procurement policies and weak consumer demand, resulting in a significant decline in market valuation from its peak [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Tongce Medical achieved total revenue of 2.874 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.96% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 501 million yuan, with a minimal growth of 0.20% [2]. - The company's gross margin and net margin decreased to 39% and 19.91%, respectively, down from 46% and 28.27% in 2021, indicating a substantial reduction in profitability [2]. Business Segments - The dental implant business saw revenue of 530 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.60%, benefiting from a strategy of "increasing volume to compensate for price" despite ongoing concerns about profit margin compression [3]. - The orthodontics segment experienced a revenue decline of 5.05% to 474 million yuan, marking three consecutive years of negative growth, attributed to consumer downgrade and intensified industry competition [3]. - Other business segments contributed 28.01% of total revenue, but growth slowed significantly from 8.34% in 2023 to just 1.27% in 2024, with pediatric and restoration services also showing insufficient growth [3]. Market Expansion Strategy - Tongce Medical has historically relied on the Zhejiang provincial market, which accounts for nearly 90% of its revenue, but performance in core hospitals has been weak, with notable declines in revenue and net profit in several key locations [4]. - The company has shifted its expansion strategy from aggressive growth to a model focused on "mergers and acquisitions + light asset franchising," with a recent example being the acquisition of a 56.28% stake in a dental hospital in Hunan, although the hospital's net profit fell short of expectations [4]. Conclusion - The year 2024 represents a period of struggle in the existing market while exploring new growth avenues for Tongce Medical. Although the implant business is currently driving growth, the profit ceiling under centralized procurement is evident, and the orthodontics segment continues to decline. The effectiveness of the new expansion model remains to be seen, and how the company reconstructs its growth logic in this new cycle will be crucial for regaining favor in the capital market [5].

Core Viewpoint - Tongce Medical, a leading dental service provider in A-shares, reported modest financial results for 2024, with total revenue of 2.874 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.96%, and a net profit of 501 million yuan, up 0.20% [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 39% and a net margin of 19.91% in 2024, both lower than the previous two years [1] - Revenue from the comprehensive business segment was 765 million yuan, accounting for 28.01% of total revenue, but its growth rate slowed to 1.27% compared to 8.34% in 2023 [4] - The implant business generated 530 million yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 10.60%, while the orthodontics segment saw a decline in revenue to 474 million yuan, down 5.05% [5][6] Business Structure - Tongce Medical's business is divided into five main segments: implants, orthodontics, pediatrics, restoration, and comprehensive services [3] - The pediatric segment contributed 501 million yuan, with a growth of 0.29%, while the restoration segment generated 462 million yuan, up 1.53% [6] Market Expansion and Strategy - The company has focused on a "regional general hospital + branch" model, with nearly 90% of revenue coming from Zhejiang province [8] - In 2024, the company opened three new branches under its "Dandelion Plan," bringing the total to 44, but the expansion rate has slowed compared to previous years [9] - Tongce Medical shifted its strategy for expansion outside Zhejiang from self-built facilities to a combination of acquisitions and light asset franchises [10] Leadership Changes - In 2024, the company underwent a board restructuring, with Wang Yi appointed as the new chairman and Lu Zixuan, the daughter of the controlling shareholder, becoming a non-independent director [11] - The company reported a revenue of 745 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.11% [11]

Company Overview - Tongce Medical's main business is in medical services, primarily focusing on oral healthcare services [1] - Key hospitals include Hangzhou Oral Hospital Group, Ningbo Oral Hospital Group, and Sanyeh Children's Oral [1] - The company has received multiple accolades, including being named a "China Excellent Management Company" by Deloitte for five consecutive years and ranking in the Zhejiang Merchants National Top 500 for 2022 and 2023 [1] Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 745 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.11% [1] - Net profit for the same period was 184 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.22% [1] - The sales gross margin stood at 44.21% [1] Market Position - As of May 13, Tongce Medical's stock closed at 41.53 yuan, with a rolling PE ratio of 36.27, marking a 14-day low [1] - The company's total market capitalization is 18.576 billion yuan [1] - In comparison to the industry, the average PE ratio for the medical services sector is 38.57, with a median of 38.12, placing Tongce Medical at 26th in the industry ranking [2] Shareholder Information - As of March 31, 2025, the number of shareholders for Tongce Medical was 84,491, a decrease of 3,759 from the previous count [1] - The average market value of shares held by each shareholder is 352,800 yuan, with an average holding of 27,600 shares [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the healthcare sector, particularly focusing on specific companies and segments within the industry [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of medical device tenders and highlights investment opportunities in segments such as blood dialysis and ultrasound, with a focus on domestic replacements [1][2]. - It suggests that leading companies in the chain pharmacy sector are likely to increase market share due to the exit of smaller players [1]. - The report identifies several key areas for investment, including innovative drugs, CXO services, traditional Chinese medicine, vaccines, and medical devices, among others [1]. Summary by Sections 1. CXO Sector - The CXO sector is expected to see valuation recovery due to supportive innovation policies and a reduction in geopolitical risks [7]. 2. Innovative Drugs - The report notes a slight increase in the A-share chemical preparation sector and highlights recent approvals for innovative drugs, suggesting a focus on ongoing R&D progress [12][67]. 3. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The performance of the traditional Chinese medicine sector has lagged behind broader market indices, indicating potential for future growth [20]. 4. Blood Products - The report highlights the strong pricing power of manufacturers in the blood products sector, driven by increased demand for immunoglobulin products [22]. 5. Vaccine Sector - The vaccine sector is facing challenges due to low birth rates, but there are opportunities in specific areas such as HPV vaccines [26]. 6. Upstream Pharmaceutical Supply Chain - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong brand recognition and overseas growth potential in the chemical and biological reagent sectors [28]. 7. IVD Sector - The IVD sector is expected to benefit from the implementation of centralized procurement policies, which may accelerate domestic replacements [31]. 8. Medical Devices - The report recommends attention to the domestic continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) market, particularly in relation to GLP-1 drugs [37]. 9. Medical Services - The report suggests focusing on eye and dental medical service companies, anticipating a boost from consumer stimulus policies [42]. 10. Offline Pharmacies - The report indicates that leading pharmacy chains are stabilizing, with a recommendation to focus on companies with strong supply chain capabilities [45]. 11. Raw Materials - The report emphasizes the importance of quality and cost management in the raw materials sector, suggesting a focus on companies with strong product capabilities [48]. 12. Innovative Instruments - The report highlights the potential for AI applications in the medical device sector, particularly in surgical navigation and pathology screening [51]. 13. Instrument Equipment - The report notes that the scientific instrument sector is expected to recover as demand improves and more domestic support policies are introduced [56]. 14. Low-value Consumables - The report suggests that the low-value consumables sector may see investment opportunities as the industry cycle improves [59].

Core Viewpoint - Tongce Medical (600763) has shown a slight increase in stock price, closing at 40.63 yuan, up 1.25% from the previous week, with a total market capitalization of 18.173 billion yuan [1] Company Announcement Summary - The controlling shareholder, Hangzhou Baoqun Industrial Group Co., Ltd., has pledged part of its shares, amounting to 10,825,231 shares, which is 2.42% of the total share capital [1] - Baoqun holds a total of 151,589,199 shares, representing 33.89% of the total share capital, with a total of 97,028,145 shares pledged, accounting for 21.69% of the total share capital [1] - The pledged shares are set to mature on April 24, 2026, with the financing purpose not involving new financing [1] - The controlling shareholder's credit situation is reported to be good, indicating manageable pledge risks that will not affect the company's main business or operational capabilities [1]

证券简称：通策医疗 证券代码：600763 编号：临 | 并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 | | --- | 重要内容提示: ? 杭州宝群实业集团有限公司（以下简称"宝群实业"）持有通策医疗股份有限 公司（以下简称"公司"）股份总数 151,589,199 股（以下数据均为公司分红派息后 的股数），占总股本的 33.89%；本次质押展期股份数为 10,825,231 股，占宝群实业所 持有本公司股份数 7.14%，占本公司总股份数的 2.42%。宝群实业质押股份总数为 并无质押；宝群实业已质押股份数占宝群实业及其一致行动人所持有本公司股份数的 2025-008 通策医疗股份有限公司 关于控股股东部分股票继续质押的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏， 份比例的 38.56%，占公司总股本的 13.07%；控股股东未来一年到期的质押股份数量 为 9702.8125 万股，占所持股份比例的 64.01%，占公司总股本的 21.69%。 利益的情况，亦不存在需要履行的业绩补偿义务情况。 通策医疗股份有限公司董 | | | | | 一、上市公司 ...