证券简称：通策医疗 证券代码：600763 编号：临 2025-008 重要内容提示: 通策医疗股份有限公司 关于控股股东部分股票继续质押的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏， 并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 杭州宝群实业集团有限公司（以下简称"宝群实业"）持有通策医疗股份有限 公司（以下简称"公司"）股份总数 151,589,199 股（以下数据均为公司分红派息后 的股数），占总股本的 33.89%；本次质押展期股份数为 10,825,231 股，占宝群实业所 持有本公司股份数 7.14%，占本公司总股份数的 2.42%。宝群实业质押股份总数为 97,028,145 股，占宝群实业所持有本公司股份数的 64.01%，占本公司总股份数的 21.69%；宝群实业的一致行动人吕建明先生持股总数 2,091,088 股，占总股本的 0.47%， 并无质押；宝群实业已质押股份数占宝群实业及其一致行动人所持有本公司股份数的 63.14%，占本公司总股份数的 21.69%。 一、上市公司股份质押情况 2025 年 5 月 9 日接到控股股东宝群实业 ...

Group 1: Market Competition Landscape - The main companies in China's oral medical consumables market include Times Angel, AoJing Medical, and Modern Dental, while the medical devices sector is led by Meiya Optoelectronics, Xianlin 3D, and Xinhua Medical [1] - In the pharmaceutical segment, key players are Shenghua Pharmaceutical, Nanyue Pharmaceutical, and Hengsheng Pharmaceutical, and in the medical services sector, Tongce Medical, Koen Dental, and Lantian Dental are prominent [1] Group 2: Regional Distribution - The oral medical industry in China is concentrated in regions such as Guangdong, Shandong, and Jiangsu, with Guangdong being the most concentrated area [3] Group 3: Dental Implant Market - The high-end dental implant market is primarily dominated by foreign companies such as Straumann, Dentsply, and Nobel, while the mid-to-low-end market is led by domestic brands like Aochitai and Dentium, which face challenges in clinical application and brand establishment compared to imported products [6] Group 4: Orthodontics Market - The orthodontic treatment market includes traditional braces and clear aligners, with Times Angel and Invisalign together holding over 70% of the clear aligner market in China as of 2023 [7] Group 5: Overall Industry Competition Status - There is a notable quality and effectiveness disparity between imported and domestic oral medical consumables and devices, leading to stronger bargaining power for imported suppliers, while domestic suppliers have weaker bargaining power [8] - Large chain dental hospitals have superior equipment and personnel, resulting in lower bargaining power for consumers [8] - The oral medical industry has significant technical barriers and high entry thresholds, making it difficult for new entrants, thus posing a low threat from new competitors [8] - The overall competition level among existing companies in the Chinese oral medical market is moderate, based on factors such as the number of competitors, market concentration, and entry barriers [8]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.87 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 500 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 740 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 180 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [1] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from planting reached 530 million, accounting for 19.4% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [1] - Orthodontics generated revenue of 470 million, accounting for 17.3% of total revenue, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.1% [1] - Pediatric services generated revenue of 500 million, accounting for 18.3% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] - Restoration services generated revenue of 460 million, accounting for 16.9% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [1] - Comprehensive services generated revenue of 760 million, accounting for 28.0% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [1] Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for medical services in 2024 was 39.3%, reflecting a decline of 0.09 percentage points compared to 2023 due to factors such as centralized procurement of dental implants and consumer downgrade [1] Expense Management - The company maintained good control over expense ratios, with a 2024 expense ratio of 15.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, the expense ratio was 13.5%, with a sales expense ratio of 0.9%, management expense ratio of 9.8%, R&D expense ratio of 1.6%, and financial expense ratio of 1.2% [2] - The company has implemented various digital operations and AI technologies to enhance overall operational efficiency [2] Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.13, 1.20, and 1.28 respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 met expectations, with a sequential improvement in Q1 growth rates [7] - The company achieved total revenue of 2.874 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 501.43 million yuan, up 0.20% year-on-year [7] - The growth in revenue and profit is driven by stable performance in various business segments, particularly in the implant and comprehensive repair sectors, while orthodontics showed signs of recovery [7] Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2.874 billion yuan in 2024 to 3.152 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 9.68% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 501.43 million yuan in 2024 to 561.89 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 12.06% [1] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.12 yuan in 2024 to 1.26 yuan in 2025 [1] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 35.80 in 2024 to 31.95 in 2025 [1] Business Performance - The company reported a total outpatient volume of 3.5334 million visits in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.37% [7] - The breakdown of revenue by business segment for 2024 includes: - Implant business revenue of 530 million yuan, up 10.6% year-on-year - Orthodontics revenue of 470 million yuan, down 5.05% year-on-year - Pediatric business revenue of 500 million yuan, up 0.29% year-on-year - Repair business revenue of 460 million yuan, up 1.53% year-on-year - Comprehensive business revenue of 770 million yuan, up 1.27% year-on-year [7] Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 38.5%, with a net profit margin of 19.91% [7] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 44.21%, while the net profit margin increased to 29.02% [7] - The management expense ratio showed a significant decrease, contributing to the overall stability in expense ratios [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 met expectations, with a sequential improvement in Q1 growth rates [7] - The company achieved total revenue of 2.874 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 501.43 million yuan, up 0.20% year-on-year [7] - The report highlights steady growth in the company's implant, repair, and comprehensive services, with orthodontics showing signs of recovery [7] - The gross margin remained stable in 2024, while the net profit margin improved in Q1 2025 [7] - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been adjusted downwards due to changes in the macro consumption and industry environment, with expected net profits of 562 million yuan and 633 million yuan respectively [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2.874 billion yuan in 2024, 3.152 billion yuan in 2025, 3.499 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.904 billion yuan in 2027 [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 501.43 million yuan in 2024, 561.89 million yuan in 2025, 633.14 million yuan in 2026, and 716.43 million yuan in 2027 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.12 yuan in 2024, 1.26 yuan in 2025, 1.42 yuan in 2026, and 1.60 yuan in 2027 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 35.80 in 2024 to 25.05 in 2027 [1] Business Segment Performance - The company reported a total outpatient volume of 3.5334 million visits in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.37% [7] - Revenue from the implant business reached 530 million yuan, up 10.6% year-on-year, while orthodontics revenue was 470 million yuan, down 5.05% [7] - The pediatric business generated 500 million yuan, up 0.29%, and the repair business brought in 460 million yuan, up 1.53% [7] - Comprehensive business revenue was 770 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.27% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese medical group industry is experiencing rapid development and strategic transformation, with a projected revenue of 40.5 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.52%, indicating strong market expansion momentum [1][13]. Industry Overview - Medical groups, also known as "medical practice organizations," consist of multiple doctors forming alliances or independent legal entities, sharing income and risks while providing medical services [2]. - The industry includes internal, external, and cross-system medical groups based on the attributes of the doctors involved [2]. Industry Development History - The industry has gone through three main phases: 1. **Incubation Period (1996-2013)**: The first medical group was established in 1996, but growth was slow due to policy constraints [4]. 2. **Rapid Development (2014-2018)**: The introduction of supportive policies led to a surge in medical groups, with over 1,000 established by 2018 [4]. 3. **Rational Adjustment (2019-Present)**: The industry faced challenges due to increased competition and capital constraints, leading to a focus on online and offline integration [5][6]. Industry Current Status - The industry is in a critical phase of rapid growth and strategic transformation, with significant capital inflow and innovative competition models emerging [1][13]. - Leading institutions like the Ludaopei Medical Group have completed substantial financing, reflecting high market recognition for medical resource integration platforms [1][13]. Industry Value Chain - The upstream of the medical group industry includes medical equipment, pharmaceuticals, medical technology, and human resources, while the downstream consists of patients who receive medical services [8]. Industry Development Trends 1. **Technological Drive and Digital Transformation**: The industry will accelerate the adoption of AI, big data, and telemedicine, creating a blended online and offline healthcare system [21]. 2. **Market Demand Upgrade**: There will be a growing demand for personalized medical services and health management, leading to diversified service models [22]. 3. **Policy Support for Standardization**: Government policies will encourage the development of medical groups, enhancing operational capabilities and brand building [23]. Key Group Profiles - **Zhang Qiang Medical Group**: Established in 2014, focusing on vascular surgery, it has become a pioneer in the industry with multiple specialized teams [15][17]. - **Harteim Heart Medical Group**: Founded in 2015, it specializes in cardiovascular diseases and has established a comprehensive service network across China [15][19]. - **Ludaopei Medical Group**: Focused on hematology, it has rapidly expanded its services nationwide and achieved significant financing [15][17].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.874 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 501 million yuan, with a growth of 0.20% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 745 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.11%, and a net profit of 184 million yuan, up by 6.22% [1] Financial Performance - For 2024, the revenue growth in planting, restoration, and comprehensive projects outpaced overall revenue growth, with planting revenue at 530 million yuan (up 10.60%), restoration revenue at 462 million yuan (up 1.53%), and comprehensive business revenue at 765 million yuan (up 1.27%) [2] - Orthodontics revenue declined by 5.05% to 474 million yuan [2] - The profit margins showed a slight decline in 2024, with a gross margin of 38.50% and a net margin of 19.91%, impacted by the collective procurement of dental implants and the decline in orthodontics revenue [2] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 44.21%, while the net margin increased to 29.02% compared to Q1 2024 [2] Future Outlook - The company adjusted its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 537 million yuan, 625 million yuan, and 718 million yuan for 2025-2027 [3] - The company plans to accelerate the opening of new hospitals in Zhejiang to capture the oral market and deepen its focus on orthodontics and dental implants, indicating a positive long-term development outlook [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved revenue and net profit figures for 2024 that were slightly below market expectations, primarily due to external environmental factors affecting patient demand release [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.874 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders of 501 million, with a year-over-year growth of 1.0% and 0.2% respectively [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 745 million and net profit of 184 million, showing a year-over-year growth of 5.1% and 6.2%, and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 16.2% and 5727.9% [1] - The company expects to see improved performance in 2025 as external conditions improve [1] Business Segments - **Implant Business**: Revenue for 2024 was 530 million, with a year-over-year growth of 10.6%. The company anticipates steady growth in this segment for 2025 due to increasing implant numbers and diverse options [1] - **Orthodontics**: Revenue for 2024 was 474 million, down 5.1% year-over-year. The company expects recovery in this segment as external conditions improve [1] - **Pediatric Dentistry**: Revenue for 2024 was 501 million, with a slight year-over-year increase of 0.3%. The company sees potential for growth in this segment due to rising demand and penetration rates [1] - **Restorative and Comprehensive Services**: Revenue for 2024 was 462 million and 765 million respectively, with year-over-year growth of 1.5% and 1.3%. The company is optimistic about continued growth in these areas [1] Hospital Network and Expansion - **Regional General Hospitals**: In 2024, revenue from Hangkou, Chengxi, and Ningkou hospitals was 548 million, 382 million, and 184 million respectively, with declines in Hangkou and Chengxi attributed to patient resource diversion to the Dandelion branches [2] - **Dandelion Branches**: The company anticipates strong growth in revenue from these branches in 2024 as they mature [2] - **Out-of-Zhejiang Hospitals**: The company is actively expanding its national footprint through a combination of self-built, acquired, and franchised models, with successful projects like the Hunan Loudi Dental Hospital [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 545 million, 587 million, and 631 million, reflecting a downward adjustment of 8% and 11% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [3] - The company is recognized as a leading profitable dental service provider in the industry, with strong technical capabilities and an expanding service network, leading to a target price adjustment to 54.80 yuan for 2025, corresponding to a 45x PE ratio [3]

Summary of Tongce Medical Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tongce Medical - **Year**: 2024 - **Revenue**: 874 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.96% - **Net Profit**: 501 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.2% - **Outpatient Visits**: 3.5334 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.37% - **Number of Medical Institutions**: 89 - **Healthcare Personnel**: 4,324 - **Dental Chairs**: 3,100 - **Gross Margin**: 39% - **Net Margin**: 20% - **Administrative, Marketing, and Financial Expense Ratios**: 11%, 1%, and 2% respectively [2][3][4] Key Business Segments Performance - **Implant Revenue**: 530 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.6% - **Orthodontics Revenue**: 474 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 5.05% - **Pediatric Revenue**: Slightly over 500 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.29% - **Medical Services Revenue**: 462 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.53% - **Comprehensive Business Revenue**: 765 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.27% - **Average Price per Implant**: Approximately 8,000 RMB with 66,000 implants performed [2][4][7] Q1 2025 Performance - **Revenue**: 745 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.11% - **Net Profit**: 184 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.22% - **Net Profit After Deduction**: 182 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.08% - **Operating Cash Flow**: 147 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13.93% - **Implant and Orthodontics Revenue Growth**: 5.7% and 13.2% respectively; Pediatric revenue decreased by 1.5% [2][3][4][8] Strategic Focus and Market Conditions - **Core Strategy**: Focus on medical quality, customer value, data-driven innovation, cost reduction, efficiency enhancement, digital upgrades, and resource integration - **Cost Control**: Emphasis on lowering operational costs to maintain low expense ratios - **Market Environment**: Facing layered consumer demand, comprehensive collection of implant prices, and accelerated industry competition [2][5][10] Future Outlook - **Growth Expectations**: Anticipated growth in implant business in Q2 2025, with a stable orthodontics market recovering from previous declines - **Pediatric Business**: Currently facing negative growth, with plans to enhance membership management to reverse this trend - **Digital Transformation**: Ongoing digital upgrades to improve operational efficiency and resource allocation [10][12][16] Expansion Plans - **New Hospital Openings**: Plans to open new branches in Zhengzhou, Cultural Square, and Quzhou in 2025 - **AI Integration**: Focus on enhancing management efficiency through AI, with a shift towards centralized operations to reduce management costs [13][15][19] Industry Trends - **Market Consolidation**: Anticipation of a trend similar to the U.S. dental chain market, with increasing concentration in the Chinese market - **Regulatory Impact**: Positive effects from the implementation of dental service price reforms, with adjustments to pricing standards [11][32] Additional Insights - **Supply Chain Management**: Importance of efficient supply chain management in controlling operational costs, especially with the implementation of zero markup policies on consumables [24][31] - **Talent Management**: Plans to optimize the workforce by focusing on high-performing doctors and reducing the number of less effective staff [27][29] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, strategic focus, market conditions, and future outlook.

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage of Topchoice with an Underweight (UW) rating and a price target (PT) of Rmb34 for December 2025 [1][8][23]. Core Insights - The dental services industry in China is facing both short- and long-term challenges, leading to profitability pressure for Topchoice. The company's earnings per share (EPS) estimates for FY25 and FY26 are projected to be 8% and 10% below consensus, respectively [1][8][21]. - Topchoice's revenue is heavily reliant on Zhejiang Province, which accounts for 90% of its total revenue, raising concerns about geographical concentration and expansion momentum [5][8][21]. - The report highlights that the dental services market is fragmented, with only about 3% of dental institutions operating as chains, limiting pricing power and growth potential [5][28][33]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Topchoice operates 84 medical facilities and has approximately 3,100 dental chairs as of Q3 FY24 [1][8]. - The company has seen flat revenue growth from FY21 to FY24E, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% from FY24 to FY27 [5][8]. Financial Performance - Revenue for FY23 was Rmb2,847 million, with projections of Rmb2,938 million for FY24 and Rmb3,125 million for FY25 [7]. - The adjusted net income for FY25 is estimated at Rmb538 million, reflecting a growth of 7% from FY24 [7]. Market Dynamics - The dental services market in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7% from 2024 to 2028, reaching Rmb193 billion, but has faced fluctuations in revenue growth due to the pandemic and economic conditions [30][28]. - The report notes that the average price of dental implants has decreased significantly due to government-led procurement policies, but the expected increase in demand has not materialized as anticipated [45][50]. Valuation - The report uses a discounted cash flow (DCF) model to arrive at the price target of Rmb34, assuming a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 12% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5% [9][23][25]. - Topchoice's current P/E ratio of 35.5x for FY25 is considered a premium compared to peers, which raises concerns about the sustainability of such valuations given the company's growth outlook [21][8]. Risks and Challenges - The report identifies several risks, including the company's reliance on a single geographic region, challenges in expanding outside Zhejiang, and the competitive landscape of the dental services market [5][21][28]. - The orthodontics segment is also under pressure, with declining treatment volumes and a shift towards more cost-effective options among consumers [54][61].