港股消费ETF(513230)：产品跟踪指数为中证港股通消费主题指数，指数从港股通范围内选取流动性较 好、市值较大的50只消费主题相关证券作为指数样本，以反映港股通内消费类上市公司证券的整体表 现。指数作为港股消费代表性指数，覆盖可选消费零售(27%)、汽车与零配件(13.4%)、食品饮料(6%)、 消费者服务(5.7%)、家电(4.9%)等诸多受益于政策刺激方向。 食品饮料ETF(515170)：产品跟踪的标的指数为中证细分食品饮料产业主题指数，该指数反映沪深两市 细分食品产业公司股票的整体走势，该指数从食品制造等细分产业中挑选规模较大、流动性较好的公司 股票组成样本股。根据申万三级行业分布，指数权重集中于白酒(56.8%)、乳制品(14.1%)、调味发酵品 (9.9%)等估值低位方向。 【相关ETF】 二季度增量资金进入新消费板块推升上涨行情，也拉高了市场对新消费方向的业绩预期，二季报前瞻陆 续披露后，部分高成长标的业绩低于此前预期，板块经过调整后逐步企稳，考虑到头部企业依旧维持较 为稳定的高增速，在整体消费大盘有望触底回升，新消费相对增速优势，叠加财年估值切换有望迎来新 一轮行情。 传统消费补涨性价比较 ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound with the Wind data indicating that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.1%, the CSI 300 increased by 1.2%, the ChiNext Index went up by 0.5%, and the Wind All A Index climbed by 1.9% [3][10] - Small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks, and growth stocks showed slightly better performance compared to value stocks [3][10] - The cyclical sectors led the performance, particularly the high-end manufacturing sector, while the TMT sector showed weaker performance [3][10] Bond Market - The bond market showed narrow fluctuations with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 2 basis points to 1.69%, while the 30-year yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.96% [4] - The one-year AA+ credit spread decreased by 1 basis point, while the five-year AA+ credit spread increased by 1 basis point [4] International Market - The upcoming US-Russia negotiations and the increased expectations for a Fed rate cut contributed to a decline in the US dollar index, with the S&P 500 rising by 2.4% and the Nasdaq increasing by 3.9% [5] - Global market risk appetite improved, leading to a 1.4% increase in the Hang Seng Index [5] A-share Sector Performance - Among the sectors, non-ferrous metals (5.83%), machinery (5.75%), and defense industry (5.24%) performed relatively well, while pharmaceuticals (-0.79%) and consumer services (-0.01%) lagged [7][10] - The recovery in market risk appetite led to active trading in thematic sectors, with the robotics theme gaining traction ahead of the 2025 World Robot Conference [7][8] Fund Issuance - A total of 34 public funds were issued last week, accumulating 39.7 billion units, with a notable shift towards balanced issuance between equity and bond funds [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the social services sector [4][29]. Core Viewpoints - The current consumer market is characterized by diversified supply, transparent information, and rational demand, highlighting the advantages of companies with high cost-performance products and mature membership systems [2][13]. - Supply chain efficiency is crucial for sustaining high cost-performance products, while membership systems help convert low-frequency users into high-loyalty customers, thereby reducing customer acquisition costs [2][13]. - Recent performance improvements for companies like Dongfang Zhenxuan indicate the effectiveness of these strategies, with significant growth in self-operated product categories and membership numbers [2][14][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the social services sector, anticipating continued valuation recovery due to favorable national policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [4][29]. Market Trends - The consumer services sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 1.55% during the reporting period, lagging behind the broader market by 1.01 percentage points [16][17]. - Companies such as Dongfang Zhenxuan, Xizang Tourism, and KEEP showed significant gains, while others like Tongcheng Travel and Nine Mao Jiu experienced notable declines [17][20]. Company Dynamics - Dongfang Zhenxuan's recent operational improvements include the launch of over 400 new self-operated products, achieving a total sales volume of 2.1 billion units, and a significant increase in paid membership numbers [14][15]. - The WS Jiangtun membership store has successfully attracted customers with its tiered membership fees and a selection of global products, validating the effectiveness of high cost-performance products combined with a membership model [2][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Atour, Beijing Renli, and Keri International, among others, for potential investment opportunities in the current economic environment [4][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by more than 10% [4][29]. Core Insights - The current consumer market is characterized by diversified supply, transparent information, and rational demand, highlighting the advantages of companies with high cost-performance products and mature membership systems [2][13]. - The supply chain is identified as a core foundation for ensuring the continuous output of high cost-performance products, while the decline of public traffic benefits has increased customer acquisition costs, making private membership systems essential for converting low-frequency users into high-loyalty customers [2][13]. - Recent performance improvements in companies like Dongfang Zhenxuan validate this logic, with significant growth in self-operated product categories and membership numbers [2][14][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The consumer services sector experienced a decline of 1.55% during the reporting period, underperforming the broader market by 1.01 percentage points [3][16]. - Notable performers in the sector included Dongfang Zhenxuan, Xizang Tourism, and KEEP, while companies like Tongcheng Travel and Lansheng suffered significant declines [17][20]. Company Dynamics - Dongfang Zhenxuan has shown marginal improvements in operations, with a focus on expanding its self-operated product lines, achieving a total of over 400 product SKUs and significant sales growth [14][15]. - The WS Jiangtun membership store has successfully attracted customers through a tiered membership fee structure and a selection of global products, demonstrating the effectiveness of high cost-performance products combined with a membership model [2][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued focus on companies such as Atour, Beijing Renli, and Keri International, among others, as potential investment opportunities in the current economic environment [4][29]. - Mid-term recommendations include companies like China Duty Free, Meituan, and Dongfang Zhenxuan, indicating a broad range of sectors for potential investment [4][29].

- The report defines the market environment using the distance between the long-term (120-day) and short-term (20-day) moving averages of the WIND All A index, which continues to expand, indicating an upward trend [2][9][10] - The industry allocation model recommends sectors such as innovative drugs in Hong Kong and securities for mid-term allocation, while the TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on military and computing power [2][3][10] - The current PE ratio of the WIND All A index is around the 70th percentile, indicating a moderate level, while the PB ratio is around the 30th percentile, indicating a relatively low level [3][10][15] Model and Factor Construction 1. **Model Name: Industry Allocation Model** - **Construction Idea**: Recommends sectors based on mid-term market trends - **Construction Process**: Utilizes historical data and market trends to identify sectors with potential for reversal and growth, such as innovative drugs and securities in the Hong Kong market - **Evaluation**: Effective in identifying sectors with potential for mid-term growth [2][3][10] 2. **Model Name: TWO BETA Model** - **Construction Idea**: Focuses on sectors with high beta values, indicating higher volatility and potential returns - **Construction Process**: Analyzes sectors with high beta values, recommending technology, military, and computing power sectors - **Evaluation**: Continues to recommend high-growth sectors, showing consistency in sector selection [2][3][10] Model Backtesting Results 1. **Industry Allocation Model** - **PE Ratio**: 70th percentile [3][10][15] - **PB Ratio**: 30th percentile [3][10][15] - **Moving Average Distance**: 6.92% [2][9][10] - **Profitability Effect**: 2.30% [2][9][10] 2. **TWO BETA Model** - **PE Ratio**: 70th percentile [3][10][15] - **PB Ratio**: 30th percentile [3][10][15] - **Moving Average Distance**: 6.92% [2][9][10] - **Profitability Effect**: 2.30% [2][9][10]

Group 1: Market Overview - In July, foreign capital inflow into Chinese stocks accelerated to $27 billion, up from $12 billion in June, with passive funds leading the trend by inflowing $39 billion [2][14] - Year-to-date, southbound capital inflow reached $110 billion, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024 [14] Group 2: Fund Flows - Passive funds saw significant inflows, with a total of $110 billion year-to-date, exceeding the $70 billion level for 2024, while active funds experienced cumulative outflows of $11 billion, a slowdown compared to $24 billion in 2024 [4][12] - Global funds and Asia-Pacific funds (excluding Japan) slightly reduced their underweight positions in China, while emerging market funds increased their underweight positions by 3.2 percentage points [6] Group 3: Sector and Company Analysis - Active fund managers increased their holdings in media and entertainment, pharmaceuticals, and insurance sectors, while reducing their positions in consumer services and durable goods [9] - The most increased holdings among companies included Tencent, NetEase, Jiangsu Hengrui, and WuXi AppTec, while Meituan and Xiaomi saw the largest reductions [11] Group 4: Investment Trends - The inflow of foreign passive funds into China was notably concentrated at the end of July, coinciding with several antitrust announcements [4] - The overall short positions in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks increased primarily in the consumer staples, financial, and communication services sectors [21][22]

Group 1 - The report indicates an increase in the margin trading balance, with a notable rise in the proportion of financing purchases, reaching 11.72% of total A-share trading volume, up by 0.40 percentage points from the previous week [16][19] - The overall market sentiment is positive, with major indices experiencing a broad increase in trading volume, particularly the CSI 500, which saw a significant rise of 11.61% in trading volume compared to the previous week [19][20] - The report highlights that the current A-share market maintains a high investment cost-effectiveness, with the stock-bond yield spread at -1.04%, which is above the average since the beginning of 2025 [13][14] Group 2 - The report notes that the PE valuation percentiles for major indices have generally increased, with the CSI 1000 leading with a rise of 2.0 percentage points, followed by the CSI 500 with an increase of 1.9 percentage points [24][27] - In terms of style, the stable style has seen the largest decline in PE valuation percentiles, down by 3.8 percentage points, while the growth style has increased by 2.2 percentage points, indicating a shift in market preferences [35][38] - The electronic industry has led the sectoral PE valuation increases, with a rise of 5.1 percentage points, while the automotive sector has experienced the largest decline, down by 9.4 percentage points [53][54]

Core Insights - The report indicates a decline in trading activity, with the CSI 300 index experiencing the largest drop in valuation [1] - Overall valuations have decreased across indices, with the CSI 300 leading the decline [1][4] - Consumer services have shown resilience in PE valuation, while banks have led in PB valuation [4][5] Index Valuation - The CSI 300 index has seen a PE-TTM historical percentile drop of 6.5 percentage points, while the PB-LF historical percentile has decreased by 7.5 percentage points [4][5] - All major indices have experienced a comprehensive decline in valuations, with the CSI 300 index leading the downturn [4][5] Industry Valuation - In terms of PE valuation, consumer services have increased by 1.0 percentage point, while banks have led in PB valuation with a 0.5 percentage point increase [4][5] - The automotive sector is noted for its cost-effectiveness in the PE-G comparison [4] Market Sentiment - Trading activity has decreased, with turnover rates and transaction volumes declining across most indices, except for the ChiNext index, which saw an increase of 2.3% in turnover rate and 8.2% in transaction volume [4][5] - The margin trading balance has risen to 1.98 trillion yuan, reflecting a 2.30% increase [4][5] Risk Premium - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the entire A-share market has slightly increased to 4.71%, up by 0.12 percentage points from the previous week [4][5]

Core Conclusions - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market's new consumption sector has shown impressive performance in the first half of the year, but has entered a phase of digestion and volatility since mid-June [1][8] - The macro logic supporting the new consumption trend is based on the historical shift in consumer behavior observed in Japan, where consumption has transitioned from mass-market to personalized and rational consumption [1][20] - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong exhibits higher growth potential compared to the A-share market, driven by evolving consumer concepts and demographic changes [1][30] Current Phase of New Consumption - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong is currently experiencing a phase of heat digestion, following a significant rise in the first half of the year, with notable stocks like Pop Mart, Old Puhuang, and Mixue Group seeing an average price increase of 247% [8][9] - The shift in consumer focus towards experience and participation, characterized by "self-consumption" and "social consumption," has led to a surge in popularity for categories such as trendy toys, tea drinks, and luxury jewelry [8][9] - Since mid-June, the new consumption stocks have faced a correction, with the average decline of the "three golden flowers" reaching 25% [9][17] Mid-term Support for New Consumption - Despite the recent volatility, the report suggests that the macroeconomic logic supporting the new consumption trend remains intact, with historical parallels drawn from Japan's consumption evolution [20][22] - The report references Maslow's hierarchy of needs, indicating that as income rises, consumer demand is shifting from material to spiritual needs, reflecting a broader trend towards personalized and rational consumption [20][30] - The ongoing demographic changes and the evolution of consumer concepts in China are expected to sustain the growth of the new consumption sector in the long term [30][31] Advantages of Hong Kong's New Consumption Assets - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong is characterized by a higher proportion of innovative consumption compared to the A-share market, which is dominated by traditional sectors like liquor and home appliances [33][35] - The financial performance of Hong Kong's new consumption stocks is robust, with projected revenue growth of 54% for key players in 2024, significantly outpacing the A-share market [35][39] - The report anticipates continued inflows into Hong Kong's new consumption sector from public funds, with an estimated total inflow of 300 to 450 billion yuan expected in 2025 [35][41] Future Trends and Opportunities - The report identifies several emerging trends in consumer behavior, including the rise of the Z generation, single households, and the aging population, which are driving demand for personalized and emotional consumption experiences [31][47] - The pet economy is highlighted as a rapidly growing sector, with a projected market size of 811.4 billion yuan by 2025, driven by increasing emotional needs among consumers [47][54] - The report emphasizes that policy support for consumption is likely to enhance consumer confidence and spending, particularly in the areas of self-consumption and value-for-money products [47][48]