Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 56.712 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 12.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.705 billion yuan, up 64.31% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2024 showed a revenue of 14.108 billion yuan, a 6.43% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.035 billion yuan, reflecting a 26.14% year-on-year growth [1]. - The company’s hydropower revenue remained stable, with a total of 25.575 billion yuan in 2023, and the average on-grid electricity price increased by 4.5% in Q1 2024 [1]. - The thermal power segment showed significant recovery, with a net profit of 1.348 billion yuan from controlled coal power enterprises in 2023, an increase of 30.96 billion yuan year-on-year [1]. - The company added 2.4324 million kilowatts of new energy capacity in 2023, with total installed capacity reaching 7.04 million kilowatts [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 2023 revenue was 56.712 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 12.3% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 6.705 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 64.3% [2]. - EPS for 2024 is projected at 0.88, increasing to 1.01 in 2025 and 1.02 in 2026 [2]. Future Projections - Revenue is expected to reach 62.762 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 10.7% [2]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected at 7.693 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 14.7% [2]. - The target price for the stock is set at 18.18 yuan per share, based on a PE ratio of 18.0 for 2024 [1][3]. Operational Insights - The company’s hydropower segment is expected to maintain its annual performance despite quarterly fluctuations [1]. - The thermal power segment is anticipated to continue its recovery, supported by a decrease in coal prices and increased generation capacity [1]. - The new energy segment is projected to contribute more significantly to overall performance as capacity expands [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 56.7 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.71 billion yuan, up 64.3% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 14.1 billion yuan, a growth of 6.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.04 billion yuan, an increase of 26.1% year-on-year [2] - The company's thermal power business saw a revenue of 22.9 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, with a total power generation of 54.46 billion kWh, up 15.3% year-on-year [2] - The hydropower segment generated a revenue of 25.6 billion yuan in 2023, a growth of 7.6%, despite a decrease in power generation due to poor water inflow [2] - The wind and solar segments reported revenues of 2.88 billion yuan and 1.68 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 22.3% and 32.5% [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a total revenue of 56.71 billion yuan and a net profit of 6.71 billion yuan, with projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 expected to be 64.63 billion yuan, 69.94 billion yuan, and 74.19 billion yuan respectively [4][10] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 1.06 yuan, 1.20 yuan, and 1.30 yuan respectively [4][10] Business Segments - Thermal Power: Revenue of 22.9 billion yuan in 2023, with a significant increase in power generation hours due to lower coal prices [2] - Hydropower: Revenue of 25.6 billion yuan in 2023, with average on-grid electricity prices increasing by 10.3% despite a decrease in power generation [2] - Wind and Solar: Combined revenue of 4.68 billion yuan in 2023, with substantial increases in installed capacity and power generation [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with net profits projected to reach 7.91 billion yuan in 2024 and 8.93 billion yuan in 2025 [4][10] - The average on-grid electricity prices for hydropower are expected to stabilize, while thermal power performance is anticipated to benefit from ongoing low coal prices [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.705 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 64.31%, and a net profit of 2.035 billion yuan in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26.14%, exceeding previous expectations [1] - The hydropower segment, particularly from the Yalong River, achieved a net profit of 8.66 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%, despite a 4.84% decrease in power generation due to low water levels [1] - The thermal power business turned profitable in 2023, with significant contributions to Q1 2024 performance, driven by declining coal prices [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a net profit of 6.705 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 55% based on net profit [1] - Q1 2024 net profit reached 2.035 billion yuan, surpassing the expected 1.85 billion yuan [1] - The average on-grid electricity price increased by 11.1% in 2023, contributing to revenue growth despite lower hydropower generation [1] Hydropower Segment - The Yalong River hydropower generation decreased by 4.84% in 2023 and 8.21% in Q1 2024 due to continued low water levels [1] - The segment's profitability was supported by rising electricity prices in Sichuan and Jiangsu [1] Thermal Power Segment - The thermal power segment achieved profitability in 2023, with net profits from various plants totaling 13.5 million yuan [1] - The Q1 2024 performance was significantly boosted by the thermal power segment, contributing approximately 7.6 billion yuan to net profit [1] Future Outlook - The report forecasts net profits of 7.542 billion yuan for 2024, 8.503 billion yuan for 2025, and 9.088 billion yuan for 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 15, 13, and 13 times [2]

证券研究报告 公用事业|电力 公司点评 2024年05月05日 国投电力 (600886.SH ) 买入 ——雅砻江以价补量逆势增长 火电盈利超预期 （维持） 投资要点： 证券分析师 ➢ 事件：公司发布2023年报及2024年一季报，2023年实现归母净利润67.05亿元，同比增 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 长64.31%；2024Q1实现归母净利润20.35亿元，同比增长26.14%，超过我们此前预期的 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 18.5亿元。2023年每股分红0.4948元，分红比例（以归母净利润为分母）55%，符合预期。 ➢ 雅砻江水电 2023 年及 2024 年一季度来水持续偏枯，以价补量实现逆势增长。雅砻江水电 研究支持 2023年发电量同比减少4.84%，但是受益于四川省内电力供需趋紧、外送江苏电价上调以及 两河口电价超预期等因素，全年平均上网电价同比增长11.1%，超过市场预期。综合影响下， 联系人 雅砻江水电2023年实现净利润86.6亿元，同比增长17.7%。2024年一季度来水继续偏枯， 刘晓宁 雅砻江的水电发电量同比减少 8.21%，但是电价在 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][44]. Core Insights - The company's performance is driven by the synergy of hydropower, thermal power, and renewable energy, with a significant increase in net profit by 64.3% year-on-year in 2023 [10][44]. - The company achieved a revenue of 56.712 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3% [10][44]. - The proposed dividend for 2023 is 3.688 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 55%, exceeding the commitment of 50% of distributable profits [10][22]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Performance Overview - The company's net profit for 2023 reached 6.705 billion yuan, with a notable increase attributed to improved thermal power generation and reduced costs [10][44]. - Hydropower generation decreased by 5% due to lower water levels, but the average hydropower price increased by 10.3%, compensating for the decline in volume [10][29]. - The thermal power segment saw a 14.9% increase in generation, aided by the commissioning of new units and a decrease in coal prices [10][29]. Section 2: Financial Metrics - The company reported a financial expense reduction of 14.6% year-on-year, contributing to a lower expense ratio of 10.4% [10][12]. - The gross margin and net margin improved to 36.1% and 11.8%, respectively, with a return on equity (ROE) of 12.8% [10][15]. - Operating cash flow for 2023 was stable at 21.3 billion yuan, while investment cash flow was negative at 20.7 billion yuan due to increased capital expenditures [10][19]. Section 3: Future Growth Potential - The company has over 11 GW of hydropower capacity under development, with significant growth potential in renewable energy [10][34]. - The planned capacity additions for wind and solar energy are expected to exceed 7 GW by 2025, contributing to the company's clean energy goals [10][38]. - The company aims to achieve a total installed capacity of 50 GW by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a target of 72% from clean energy sources [10][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 56.712 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 12.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.705 billion yuan, up 64.31% year-on-year. For Q1 2024, revenue was 14.108 billion yuan, a 6.43% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.035 billion yuan, up 26.14% year-on-year [1][2]. - The increase in hydropower profits is driven by rising electricity prices, with expectations for profit growth as water levels improve. The company completed hydropower generation of 93.643 billion kWh in 2023, with a corresponding electricity price of 0.300 yuan/kWh, up 10.29% year-on-year [1]. - Thermal power performance has significantly improved due to lower coal prices and increased electricity demand, with net profits from thermal power reaching 1.429 billion yuan in 2023, compared to a loss of 1.659 billion yuan in the previous year [1]. - The company continues to expand its renewable energy assets, with significant increases in wind and solar generation, contributing to net profits of 738 million yuan from its subsidiary [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 56.712 billion yuan, with projected revenues of 59.004 billion yuan in 2024, 64.196 billion yuan in 2025, and 70.146 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 12.3%, 4.0%, 8.8%, and 9.3% respectively [2][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 6.705 billion yuan, with projections of 7.920 billion yuan in 2024, 8.817 billion yuan in 2025, and 9.361 billion yuan in 2026, indicating growth rates of 64.3%, 18.1%, 11.3%, and 6.2% respectively [2][5]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 36.1%, expected to rise to 40.0% in 2024 and maintain around 41.6% in the following years [2][5]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 17.0 in 2023 to 12.1 by 2026, indicating an improving valuation [2][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.705 billion yuan for 2023, a year-on-year increase of 64.31%, and proposed a dividend of 0.4948 yuan per share, accounting for 55% of the net profit [5] - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 2.035 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 26.14%, exceeding previous expectations [5] - The report highlights the impact of reduced water levels on power generation in 2023, but anticipates a recovery in 2024 due to rising electricity prices [5] - The company’s thermal power segment turned profitable in 2023, with significant contributions from new coal-fired units [5] - The rapid growth of renewable energy installations is expected to drive a substantial increase in power generation [5] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price as of April 29, 2024: 15.25 yuan - Market capitalization: 106.23 billion yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 1.9 [2] Financial Data - As of March 31, 2024, the company had a net asset value per share of 8.2 yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.38% [3] Performance Overview - Total revenue for 2023 was 56.712 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.3% [6] - The company’s gross profit margin for 2023 was 36.1% [6] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is 8.038 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.9% [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 8.038 billion yuan, 8.759 billion yuan, and 9.323 billion yuan respectively [6] - The current price-to-earnings ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 14, 13, and 12 times respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to see stable dividends in 2023, with positive growth in Q1 2024 and an anticipated improvement in water inflow in Q2 2024 [3]. - The revenue for 2023 is projected at 56.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, with a net profit of 6.7 billion yuan, up 64.4% year-on-year [3]. - The average on-grid electricity price for hydropower in Q1 2024 is 0.318 yuan/kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2023 is 56,712 million yuan, with a net profit of 6,705 million yuan, and an EPS of 0.90 yuan [4]. - The projected EPS for 2024 and 2025 is 1.14 yuan and 1.16 yuan respectively, with a target price raised to 18.24 yuan based on a 16x PE ratio for 2024 [3][5]. Operational Insights - Hydropower generation in Q1 2024 was 21.3 billion kWh, down 8.4% year-on-year, while thermal power generation increased by 17.9% to 14.3 billion kWh [3]. - The company’s thermal power units account for 64.0% of its total installed capacity, primarily located in economically developed coastal areas [3]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.49 yuan per share for 2023, with a payout ratio of 55.0%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Market Position - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 113.68 billion yuan, with a current share price of 15.25 yuan [5][10]. - The stock has a 52-week price range of 11.63 to 15.92 yuan [10]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s PE ratio for 2023 is 16.95, with projected ratios of 13.42 for 2024 and 13.17 for 2025 [4]. - The dividend yield for 2023 is 3.2%, expected to be 3.0% in 2024 and increase to 4.6% by 2025 [4].

业绩简评 4月29日晚间公司发布2023年年报及2024年一季报，2023全年 实现营收567.1亿元，同比+12.3%；实现归母净利润67.1亿元， 同比+64.3%。1Q24实现营收141.1亿元，同比+6.4%；实现归母净 利润20.4亿元，同比+26.1%。 经营分析 水电：23 年以价补量实现营收同比+7.6%，1Q24 来水偏枯拖累持 续。1）量：新机组投产对电量增发的拉动效应自4M23起消退，来 水情况对发电量的影响力增加。23 年雅砻江来水量同比偏枯约 14.1%；期间完成上网电量936亿千瓦时，同比-5.1%。1Q24西南 来水持续偏枯，期间完成上网电量213亿千瓦时，同比-8.4%。2） 价：23 年锦官送苏电源组上网电价受益于江苏省市场化交易电价 上浮而上涨，全年平均上网电价0.300元/kWh，同比+10.3%；1Q24 17.00 1,000 上网电价0.318元/kWh，同比+4.3%，主受电量结构变化影响。 900 800 15.00 700 火电：宏观经济复苏+市场煤价下行，业绩弹性持续释放。1）量： 600 13.00 500 23年宏观经济复苏叠加水电缺位，全年完成上网电量 ...

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 雅砻江电价提升&火电降本增量，23 年及 24Q1 公司研究 业绩高增 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2024年4月30日 [国Ta投bl电e_力Sto c(k6A0n0dR8a8n6k.]S H) [T事ab件le：_ 4S月umm 2a 9r日y]晚 ，公司发布2023年年报，2023年公司实现营业收入567.12 投资评级 买入 亿元，同比增长12.32%；实现归母净利润67.05亿元，同比增长64.31%； 扣非后归母净利润65.89亿元，同比增长66.76%；经营活动产生的现金流量 上次评级 买入 212.68亿元，同比下降3.17%，基本每股收益0.875元。其中，2023Q4公司 [左Ta前b明le _ A能ut源ho行r]业 首席分析师 实现营业收入141.6亿元，同比增长15%；实现归母净利润6.5亿元，同比 执业编号：S1500518070001 扭亏为盈。 联系电话：010-83326712 同日，公司发布2024年一季报，2024Q1公司实现营业收入141.08亿元，同 邮 箱：zuo ...