Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - The company's hydropower generation reached 47.782 billion kWh in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.30%, contributing to a net profit of 5.502 billion yuan from its three hydropower subsidiaries, up 10.87% year-on-year [2][6] - The overall net profit attributable to the parent company for the first half of 2025 was 3.795 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.36% [2][6] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 25.697 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.18% year-on-year [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Hydropower Performance - The company benefited from the energy release from the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station, leading to a significant increase in hydropower generation [2][11] - The total revenue from the three hydropower companies was 13.181 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.04%, although this growth rate was lower than the increase in generation volume [11] New Energy Business - The new energy segment faced challenges due to a decline in market electricity prices, with net profit from the main platform, Guotou New Energy, dropping to 232 million yuan, a decrease of 43.07% year-on-year [2][11] Thermal Power Performance - The thermal power segment saw a decrease in generation volume to 22.258 billion kWh, down 21.10% year-on-year, with net profit from six major thermal power subsidiaries totaling 833 million yuan, a decline of 20.96% [2][11] - Despite the challenges, the company managed to maintain stable overall performance due to the strong contribution from hydropower [11] Future Outlook - The company is advancing its integrated water-wind-solar projects in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin, with a total potential hydropower capacity of approximately 30 million kW [11] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are estimated at 0.90 yuan, 0.97 yuan, and 1.04 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15.77, 14.65, and 13.66 [11]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Expected High Dividend Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to construct a portfolio with high expected dividend yield by leveraging historical dividend data, fundamental indicators, and short-term factors like reversal and profitability[5][10][16] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Dividend Yield Calculation**: - Phase 1: Calculate dividend yield based on annual report profit distribution announcements - Phase 2: Predict and calculate dividend yield using historical dividend data and fundamental indicators[5][10] 2. **Screening Process**: - Exclude suspended and limit-up stocks from the CSI 300 constituents[15] - Remove the top 20% of stocks with the highest short-term momentum (21-day cumulative return)[15] - Exclude stocks with declining profitability (quarterly net profit YoY growth < 0)[15] 3. **Final Selection**: - Rank the remaining stocks by expected dividend yield - Select the top 30 stocks with the highest expected dividend yield and construct an equally weighted portfolio[11] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong historical performance with significant excess returns and controlled drawdowns, making it a robust strategy for high-dividend stock selection[13] Model Backtesting Results - **Expected High Dividend Portfolio**: - Cumulative Return: 358.90% - Cumulative Excess Return (vs CSI 300 Total Return Index): 107.44% - Annualized Excess Return: 8.87% - Maximum Rolling 1-Year Drawdown of Excess Return: 12.26% - Monthly Excess Win Rate: 60.19%[13] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Expected Dividend Yield Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Predict future dividend yield by combining historical dividend data, fundamental indicators, and short-term influencing factors[5][16] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate historical dividend yield based on profit distribution announcements[5][10] 2. Predict future dividend yield using fundamental indicators and historical dividend patterns[5][10] 3. Incorporate two short-term factors: - **Reversal Factor**: Accounts for short-term price reversals - **Profitability Factor**: Reflects the company's earnings performance[5][16] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively identifies high-dividend stocks and serves as a reliable input for portfolio construction[16] - **Factor Name**: Red Dividend Timing Framework (Composite Signal) **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines multiple single-factor signals to assess the market's outlook on dividend stocks[25][28] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Evaluate five single-factor signals: - **Inflation**: PPI YoY (High/Low) - **Liquidity**: M2 YoY (High/Low) - **M1-M2 Gap**: Scissors Difference (High/Low) - **Interest Rate**: US 10-Year Treasury Yield (High/Low) - **Market Sentiment**: Dividend Stock Turnover Ratio (Up/Down)[28] 2. Assign binary signals (1 for bullish, 0 for bearish) to each factor 3. Aggregate the signals into a composite indicator[28] **Factor Evaluation**: The framework provides a systematic approach to timing dividend stock investments, though the September 2025 signal suggests a cautious stance[25][28] Factor Backtesting Results - **Expected Dividend Yield Factor**: - August 2025 Portfolio Average Return: 5.69% - Excess Return (vs CSI 300 Index): -4.80% - Excess Return (vs CSI Dividend Index): +4.70%[5][16] - **Red Dividend Timing Framework (Composite Signal)**: - Latest Signal (September 2025): 0 (Neutral)[25][28]

证券代码：600886 证券简称：国投电力 公告编号：2025-049 国投电力控股股份有限公司 关于选举职工董事的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 国投电力控股股份有限公司（以下简称公司）第十二届董事会任期将于 2025 年 9 月 6 日届满。根据《公司法》《公司章程》等有关规定，近日公司召开职工 代表大会，组织开展公司职工董事换届选举工作。 经公司职工代表大会投票选举，由尚中华先生（简历请见附件）任公司第十 三届董事会职工董事，将与公司股东会选举产生的八名董事共同组成公司第十三 届董事会，任期与第十三届董事会一致。 职工董事个人简历 尚中华，男，汉族，1980 年 12 月出生，大学学历，工学学士，高级工程师。 历任天津国投津能发电有限公司运行部值长、国投电力控股股份有限公司生产经 营部运行管理高级业务经理、国投电力控股股份有限公司商务管理部招标及采购 管理高级业务经理、国投电力控股股份有限公司业务发展部项目开发岗高级业务 经理、国投电力控股股份有限公司业务发展部副经理（期间挂职天津国投新能源 有限公 ...

证券代码：600886 证券简称：国投电力 公告编号：2025-049 特此公告。 国投电力控股股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 9 月 2 日 附： 职工董事个人简历 国投电力控股股份有限公司 关于选举职工董事的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 国投电力控股股份有限公司（以下简称公司）第十二届董事会任期将于 2025 年 9 月 6 日届满。根据《公司法》《公司章程》等有关规定，近日公司召开职工 代表大会，组织开展公司职工董事换届选举工作。 经公司职工代表大会投票选举，由尚中华先生（简历请见附件）任公司第十 三届董事会职工董事，将与公司股东会选举产生的八名董事共同组成公司第十三 届董事会，任期与第十三届董事会一致。 尚中华，男，汉族，1980 年 12 月出生，大学学历，工学学士，高级工程师。 历任天津国投津能发电有限公司运行部值长、国投电力控股股份有限公司生产经 营部运行管理高级业务经理、国投电力控股股份有限公司商务管理部招标及采购 管理高级业务经理、国投电力控股股份有限公司业务发展部项目开发岗高级业务 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Index for Public Utilities (000995) increased by 0.89% as of September 2, 2025, with notable gains from Shanghai Electric (600021) up 9.98%, Jilin Electric Power (000875) up 5.98%, and Huaneng Hydropower (600025) up 2.32% [1] - In July, the total electricity consumption in China reached 10,226 billion kilowatt-hours, marking an 8.6% year-on-year increase, with monthly consumption surpassing 1 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time, indicating strong demand [1] - Dongguan Securities highlighted that the first and third industries, along with urban and rural residential electricity consumption, experienced rapid growth, while the average price of thermal coal decreased year-on-year, benefiting the profitability of thermal power companies [1] Group 2 - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Index for Public Utilities (000995) include Yangtze Power (600900), China Nuclear Power (601985), and Three Gorges Energy (600905), collectively accounting for 56.01% of the index [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Guotou Electric Power's stock has experienced fluctuations, with a recent increase of 2.05% but a year-to-date decline of 10.60% [1] - As of September 2, Guotou Electric Power's stock price is reported at 14.45 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 115.665 billion yuan [1] - The company primarily engages in electricity production and supply, with 92.02% of its revenue coming from electricity and 7.98% from other sources [1] Group 2 - As of June 30, the number of shareholders for Guotou Electric Power is 94,400, a decrease of 12.38% from the previous period [2] - For the first half of 2025, Guotou Electric Power reported operating revenue of 25.697 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.18%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.36% to 3.795 billion yuan [2] - The company has distributed a total of 24.965 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 9.392 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [2]

Core Insights - A-share mid-year report shows revenue and net profit growth remains positive, but the proportion of loss-making stocks is still high [2][10] - The overseas revenue share of A-shares reached a record high of 13.4% in 2025, indicating a trend towards internationalization [10] - The pet food industry is experiencing a trend towards "micro-innovation" and "precision nutrition," with a focus on premium products [3][16] A-share Market Analysis - A-share revenue growth peaked in Q1 2021 at 44.8% and has been on a downward trend for 14 consecutive quarters, with a slight recovery in 2025 [10] - The proportion of loss-making companies in A-shares reached 29.4% in Q2 2025, the highest since 2008 [10] - The profitability of the main board is under pressure, while the Sci-Tech Innovation Board is showing signs of recovery [10] Pet Food Industry Insights - The 27th Asia Pet Expo in 2025 saw a record number of exhibitors but a decline in the number of participating brands, indicating increased industry concentration [12][3] - Major brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. are focusing on product upgrades and expanding their market presence [3][12] - The trend of "small dog economy" is rising, with leading brands increasing their focus on dog food products [16] Financial Performance of Key Companies - The report highlights that companies like Boss Electric and Wanhe Electric are maintaining stable profitability despite market challenges [22][24] - The pet food sector is seeing significant product innovation, with brands launching new premium products to cater to evolving consumer preferences [3][16] - The overall cash flow and operating cash return in A-shares have improved, indicating better financial health among companies [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guotou Electric Power is maintained at "Add" [3] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue but demonstrated strong resilience in performance, with a year-on-year revenue of 25.697 billion yuan, down 5.18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.795 billion yuan, up 1.36% [1][6] - The hydropower segment saw a significant increase in generation, with a total of 47.782 billion kWh, up 10.30% year-on-year, while thermal power generation decreased by 21.10% [6] - The company is focusing on expanding its clean energy capacity, aiming for a 72% share of clean energy installations by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with current clean energy installations at 71.84% [6] Financial Data and Valuation - The projected total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 57.508 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1% [2] - The estimated net profit for 2025 is projected to be 7.160 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8% [2] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 15.8, with a projected PE of 15.2 for 2026 and 14.0 for 2027 [2][10]

证券研究报告|公司动态点评 2025 年 09 月 01 日 国投电力（600886.SH） 火电提质+水电稳健，多元能源协同支撑业绩韧性 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 56,712 | 57,819 | 56,812 | 60,389 | 63,347 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 12.3 | 2.0 | -1.7 | 6.3 | 4.9 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 6,705 | 6,643 | 7,017 | 7,536 | 7,850 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 64.3 | -0.9 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.2 | | ROE（%） | 11.9 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 10.6 | 10.2 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.84 | 0.83 | 0.88 | 0.94 | 0.98 | | P/E（倍） | 17.1 | 17.3 | 16.3 | 15.2 | 14.6 | | P/ ...

业绩符合预期，煤电度电净利 4 分 华泰研究 中报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 2025 年 9 月 01 日│中国内地 发电 目标价(人民币): 16.67 | | | 证券研究报告 国投电力 (600886 CH) 王玮嘉 研究员 SAC No. S0570517050002 SFC No. BEB090 黄波 研究员 huangbo@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 3570 李雅琳 研究员 SAC No. S0570523050003 SFC No. BTC420 胡知* 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120002 huzhi019072@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 康琪* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070105 kangqi@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 基本数据 | 目标价 (人民币) | 16.67 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 8 月 29 日) | 14.33 | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 114,704 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 481.6 ...