Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][5] Core Insights - The company has shown resilience in its hydropower generation, achieving a 15.05% year-on-year increase in electricity generation for the third quarter, totaling 115.96 billion kWh [3][4] - The company's revenue for the third quarter reached 31.52 billion yuan, reflecting a 17.27% year-on-year growth, with a gross profit margin of 70.93%, up by 3.86 percentage points [3][4] - The company has optimized its asset structure, resulting in a 10.69% year-on-year decrease in financial expenses, and investment income increased by 17.38% to 1.374 billion yuan [3][4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the third quarter was 16.663 billion yuan, marking a 31.81% year-on-year increase [3][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported a total revenue of 31.52 billion yuan for Q3 2024, a 17.27% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 16.663 billion yuan, up 31.81% year-on-year [3][4] - The gross profit margin reached 70.93%, an increase of 3.86 percentage points compared to the previous year [3][4] Hydropower Generation - The company experienced favorable water inflow, with a total water volume of 888.52 million cubic meters for the Wudongde Reservoir, a 12.56% increase year-on-year, and 3,131.10 million cubic meters for the Three Gorges Reservoir, a 20.26% increase year-on-year [3][4] - The electricity generation for the first three quarters was 2,358.14 billion kWh, a 15.97% increase year-on-year [3][4] Market and Pricing - The report highlights the ongoing market reforms that are expected to support long-term electricity prices, particularly in regions with high hydropower marketization [4] - The company is expected to benefit from a stable pricing mechanism for its electricity sales, which has been adjusted to include a floating price component [4] Future Outlook - The company is projected to have earnings per share (EPS) of 1.39 yuan, 1.42 yuan, and 1.51 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20.12, 19.76, and 18.55 [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance exceeded expectations with a net profit of 16.663 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.81%, surpassing the forecast of 15-15.5 billion yuan [1] - The company achieved a net profit of 28.025 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.20% [1] - Revenue growth was driven by improved water inflow and a favorable power generation structure leading to higher average electricity prices [1] - Financial expenses and investment income contributed positively to the growth momentum, with interest expenses decreasing significantly [1] - The company's stock price performance is closely linked to credit spreads, indicating a need to monitor changes in credit conditions [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1, the company generated 120.618 billion kWh of electricity, a 16.86% increase year-on-year, while Q3 saw a generation of 115.196 billion kWh, up 15.05% year-on-year [1] - Revenue for H1 grew by 12.38%, while Q3 revenue increased by 17.27% year-on-year, primarily due to higher electricity prices [1] - The company’s financial expenses for H1 were 5.704 billion yuan, down 0.676 billion yuan from the previous year, exceeding market expectations [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 33.59 billion, 35.235 billion, and 36.982 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20, 19, and 18 [3] - The company is expected to maintain a strong return on equity (ROE) of 16.13% in 2024, increasing slightly in subsequent years [3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - The company has maintained a high cash dividend policy since its listing, accumulating cash dividends of 183.94 billion yuan, with a cash dividend of 0.82 USD per share in 2023, exceeding 20 billion yuan in total cash dividends for the year [1] - The company operates in the energy sector, specifically focusing on hydropower generation and renewable energy projects Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - The company reported a total power generation of approximately 2,358.14 billion kilowatt-hours in the first three quarters, an increase of 15.97% year-on-year [1] - The total power generation for the six hydropower stations in the third quarter of 2024 was 1,151.96 billion kilowatt-hours, showing an increase of over 15% compared to the same period in the previous year [1] - Investment returns for the first three quarters were 436 million yuan, an increase of 600 million yuan year-on-year, with total investments reaching 5.21 billion yuan [3] Operational Highlights - The company has successfully managed water resources, with the total inflow to the Wudongde Reservoir at approximately 88.852 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.56%, and the Three Gorges Reservoir inflow at approximately 313.11 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 20.26% [1] - The company has established several new projects, including the construction of the Zhejiang Tiantai Power Plant and the advancement of various pumped storage projects [2] - The company has maintained a 3A credit rating domestically and an A1 rating internationally, with a total of 9 billion yuan in bonds issued at a comprehensive cost of 2.28% [3] Research and Development - R&D investment for the first nine months was 584 million yuan, remaining stable compared to the previous year, with a total of 2,365 domestic patent applications filed [2] - The company anticipates a total R&D expenditure of approximately 2.35 billion yuan for the year 2024 [14] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue its high cash dividend policy, with a commitment to maintain a profit distribution ratio of no less than 70% from 2021 to 2025, and a projected cash dividend ratio of approximately 75% for 2023 [20][21] - The company is actively pursuing overseas business opportunities, including the acquisition of a 140,000-kilowatt wind power project in Peru and the expansion of its electric vehicle fleet [8][9] Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges in meeting water storage targets, particularly for the Three Gorges Reservoir, which has a target of 175 meters but is expected to fall short [6][25] - The company is also navigating the complexities of market pricing for electricity, with expectations for stable pricing in the upcoming year despite fluctuations in supply and demand [10][11] Additional Important Information - The company has received recognition from local government bodies for its contributions to energy supply and management [1] - The company is focused on optimizing its capital structure and reducing financial costs, with a goal to lower its debt ratio [5] - The company is committed to enhancing its operational efficiency and safety management practices across its projects [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次覆盖) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a robust performance with a year-on-year revenue increase of 14.65% and a net profit increase of 30.20% for the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The increase in electricity generation, which rose by 15% year-on-year, has significantly contributed to revenue growth [1] - The company is expected to achieve its annual electricity generation target of 308.8 billion kWh [1] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 66.331 billion yuan and a net profit of 28.025 billion yuan [1] - In Q3 2024 alone, the company achieved revenues of 31.522 billion yuan, a 17.27% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 16.663 billion yuan, up 31.81% year-on-year [1] - The total electricity generation for the first three quarters was approximately 235.814 billion kWh, reflecting a 15.97% increase year-on-year [1] Market Data - As of November 1, 2024, the company's stock price was 27.98 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 2,446.82 billion yuan [1] - The company has a gross profit margin of 70.93% and a net profit margin of 53.28% in Q3 2024, both showing improvements from the previous year [1] - Financial expenses were effectively managed, resulting in a decrease of 11% year-on-year, with a financial expense ratio of 8.91% [1] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 33.852 billion yuan, 35.675 billion yuan, and 37.014 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] - The corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for these years are expected to be 20.2, 19.2, and 18.5 [2] Comparable Company Valuation - The company is compared with peers such as Huaneng Hydropower, Chuanwei Energy, and Guotou Power, with its current valuation slightly above the industry average [1][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [14]. Core Views - The company has experienced significant growth in revenue and net profit due to favorable water conditions and high electricity demand, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 14.65% and a net profit increase of 30.2% in the first three quarters of 2024 [1][2]. - The gross profit margin has reached a record high of 70.93% in Q3 2024, reflecting improved profitability [3]. - The report forecasts continued revenue growth, projecting revenues of 88.115 billion in 2024, 90.517 billion in 2025, and 92.582 billion in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 33.935 billion, 35.346 billion, and 36.713 billion respectively [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 663.31 billion, a 14.65% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 280.25 billion, a 30.2% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company's Q3 2024 revenue was 315.22 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 64.5% [1]. - The weighted average ROE for the first three quarters of 2024 was 13.54%, an increase of 3.01 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Operational Highlights - The total power generation from six hydropower stations increased by 15.97% year-on-year, with Q3 2024 generation reaching 1151.96 billion kWh, a 15.05% increase year-on-year and a 69.73% increase quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The report highlights that the company’s financing cost has decreased, with a financial expense ratio of 12.75% in the first three quarters, down 3.56 percentage points year-on-year [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a 30% year-on-year increase in profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with a revenue of 66.33 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 28.03 billion yuan [4][9] - The company is expected to maintain strong performance despite anticipated lower water levels in the fourth quarter, supported by good reservoir conditions [15][17] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 87.10 billion yuan, 87.73 billion yuan, and 91.11 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 33.28 billion yuan, 34.64 billion yuan, and 37.31 billion yuan [2][17] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.36 yuan, 1.42 yuan, and 1.52 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][17] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 20.57, 19.76, and 18.35 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][17] Operational Highlights - The company reported a 15.97% increase in total power generation for the first three quarters of 2024, driven by favorable water conditions [9][12] - The gross profit margin reached a record high of 70.93% in the third quarter of 2024, reflecting improved operational efficiency [12][14] - The company is actively managing its debt, reducing financial costs by 9.77 billion yuan year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024 [12][14] Project Development - The company is progressing with its renewable energy projects, managing 21 operational sites with a total installed capacity of 2.648 million kW [15] - The company is advancing seven pumped storage projects, with the Guanghanping project recently entering the construction phase [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its performance relative to the market [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 66.33 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.65%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 28.03 billion yuan, up 30.20% year-on-year [5][6]. - The significant increase in performance is attributed to improved water inflow during the flood season, leading to higher electricity generation and potential increases in electricity prices [6]. - The company benefits from a declining interest rate environment, which has reduced financial costs and improved investment returns, further enhancing overall performance [8]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price as of October 31, 2024: 27.58 yuan - Market capitalization: 662.12 billion yuan - Dividend yield: 2.97% [2]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 31.52 billion yuan, a 17.27% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 16.66 billion yuan, up 31.81% year-on-year [5][6]. - The total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 83.71 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.2% [10]. Operational Metrics - The total power generation for Q3 2024 was 115.20 billion kWh, a 15.05% increase year-on-year, supported by improved water inflow from major reservoirs [6]. - The company’s debt has decreased significantly, with total liabilities down by 23.14 billion yuan to 347.53 billion yuan as of September 30, 2024 [8]. Profitability Forecast - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is 33.25 billion yuan, 35.12 billion yuan, and 37.56 billion yuan respectively, with a commitment to a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% [8].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电力 长江电力（600900） 2024 年三季报点评：来水改善量价齐升，财 务费用持续缩减 2024 年 11 月 01 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|--------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 68863 | 78112 | 87230 | 89168 | 90317 | | 同比（ % ） | 23.75 | 13.43 | 11.67 | 2.22 | 1.29 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 23726 | 27239 | 34350 | 36135 | 37656 | | 同比（ % ） | (9.69) | 14.81 | 26.10 | 5.20 | 4.21 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 0.97 | 1.11 | 1.40 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 27.58 yuan per share [1][3] Core Views - The company reported strong Q3 2024 results, with revenue of 66.331 billion yuan, up 14.65% YoY, and net profit of 28.025 billion yuan, up 30.2% YoY [1] - Hydropower generation increased significantly due to favorable water conditions, with total power generation from six cascade power stations reaching 235.814 billion kWh, up 15.97% YoY [1] - The company's pumped storage business has clear returns, and its overseas operations are developing steadily, with the completion of the Sapphire wind power project in Peru [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 31.522 billion yuan, up 17.27% YoY, and net profit of 16.663 billion yuan, up 31.81% YoY [1] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 1.35, 1.43, and 1.55 yuan per share, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20.4x, 19.2x, and 17.8x [1] - Revenue growth for 2024-2026 is expected to be 9%, 2%, and 2%, respectively, while net profit growth is projected at 21%, 6%, and 8% [2] Hydropower Operations - The upstream Wudongde reservoir received 88.852 billion cubic meters of water, 12.56% higher than the same period last year, while the downstream Three Gorges reservoir received 313.110 billion cubic meters, up 20.26% YoY [1] - The Baihetan reservoir completed its 2024 water storage task, with a total storage of 3.139 billion cubic meters, and generated 24.442 billion kWh in Q3, up 15.46% YoY [1] Business Development - The company's pumped storage business is expected to participate in medium- and long-term power trading, spot market trading, and auxiliary service markets, ensuring stable returns [1] - Overseas operations are progressing well, with the completion of the Sapphire wind power project in Peru, strengthening the company's power generation, distribution, and sales chain in the region [1] Valuation and Forecast - The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 85.106 billion yuan, 86.4 billion yuan, and 88.559 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit of 33.035 billion yuan, 35.098 billion yuan, and 37.810 billion yuan [1] - The company's P/E ratio for 2024-2026 is expected to be 20.4x, 19.2x, and 17.8x, respectively, with a P/B ratio of 3.1x, 3.0x, and 2.8x [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 66.33 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 28.02 billion yuan, up 30.2% year-on-year [1]. - The total power generation for the first three quarters of 2024 was approximately 235.814 billion kWh, an increase of 15.97% year-on-year, driven by favorable water inflow conditions [2]. - The company maintained a stable electricity price, estimated at approximately 0.274 yuan per kWh in Q3 2024, which is a 5 cents increase compared to the same period last year, supporting revenue growth [2]. - Cost control measures and a reduction in financial expenses contributed to a significant increase in net profit, which rose by 31.8% to 16.66 billion yuan in Q3 2024 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 31.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, while operating costs only increased by 3.5%, leading to a gross margin improvement of nearly 4 percentage points to 70.9% [2]. - Financial expenses for the first three quarters totaled approximately 8.46 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.4% year-on-year, enhancing profit margins [2]. - The company adjusted its profit forecast for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 34.02 billion yuan, 35.86 billion yuan, and 37.27 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.8x, 18.8x, and 18.1x [3]. Operational Insights - As of October 16, 2024, the water level at the Baihetan Hydropower Station reached 824.1 meters, with a total water storage of 3.139 billion cubic meters, ensuring power supply stability for the upcoming winter and spring [3]. - The company has shown excellent cost management capabilities, which are expected to continue supporting its financial performance in the coming years [3].