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研报掘金丨天风证券:维持南网储能“买入”评级,调峰水电来水增加带动利润增长
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-09-11 06:16
Core Viewpoint - The report from Tianfeng Securities indicates that Nanfang Network Energy achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 832 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.93% [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company realized a net profit attributable to shareholders of 458 million yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [1] - The increase in profits is attributed to higher water inflow for peak-shaving hydropower and expected gains from participating in the spot market [1] Industry Overview - As of the first half of 2025, the total installed capacity of pumped storage in the country reached 61.29 million kilowatts, with an addition of 2.83 million kilowatts [1] - The company's total installed capacity for pumped storage reached 10.28 million kilowatts [1] Market Potential - With the gradual improvement of the electricity spot market, the company is expected to enhance the profit from electricity volume and fees for pumped storage power stations through market participation [1] New Energy Storage Developments - As of June 30, 2025, the company's new energy storage installed capacity was 654.2 thousand kilowatts / 1.2983 million kilowatt-hours [1] - In the first half of the year, the company officially put into operation three newly constructed electrochemical energy storage stations: - Yunnan Wenshan Qiubei Storage Project (200MW/400MWh) - Hainan Lingao Storage Project (20MW/40MWh) - Hunan Central South Cement Plant Auxiliary Storage Project (5.1MW/14.7MWh) [1] Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit expectations upward due to favorable water conditions and maintains a "buy" rating [1]
行业周报(9.1-9.7):陕西、浙江出台136号文承接方案,板块市场表现回升-20250911
Great Wall Securities· 2025-09-11 02:08
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the industry, indicating an expectation that the overall industry performance will outperform the market in the next six months [65]. Core Insights - The public utility sector has shown a recovery in market performance, with the industry index rising by 1.2% during the week of September 1-7, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.38 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 2.01 percentage points [2][11]. - The report highlights the introduction of the "136 Document" in Shaanxi and Zhejiang, which aims to enhance market mechanisms and pricing for renewable energy projects, potentially stabilizing industry profitability [3][35][37]. - The report suggests that the coal price stabilization and improved electricity pricing will enhance the profitability of thermal power companies in the short term, while long-term prospects remain positive due to market reforms [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The public utility industry index's PE (TTM) is currently at 18.06, up from 17.92 the previous week, and higher than 16.53 a year ago [2][23]. - The sector's PB is at 1.81, compared to 1.79 last week and 1.77 a year ago [2][26]. - The report ranks the public utility sector 6th among 31 sectors in terms of performance during the week [11]. 2. Individual Stock Performance - Top-performing stocks include Shanghai Electric (+35.66%), Jingyun Tong (+14.51%), and Luxiao Technology (+13.48%) [3][28]. - Conversely, stocks like Huayin Electric (-10.5%) and China General Nuclear Power (-4.43%) experienced declines [3][28]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The "136 Document" in Shaanxi sets a bidding range for incremental projects at 0.18 to 0.3545 yuan/kWh, while Zhejiang's document proposes a storage price of 0.4153 yuan/kWh [35][37]. - The report notes the release of the "Sichuan Electricity Market Settlement Rules," which will impact independent energy storage pricing [35][39]. 4. Key Data Tracking - As of September 5, 2025, the price of Shanxi mixed coal (5500) is 681 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.59% [6][45]. - The total transaction volume for green certificates in wind and solar power reached 12.4 and 16.4 million units, respectively, during the week [48]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on thermal power companies due to expected profit stability and potential dividend increases [7]. - For hydropower, it suggests monitoring stocks that have seen significant pullbacks, while for green energy, it anticipates a stabilization in expected returns following the "136 Document" implementation [7].
天风证券晨会集萃-20250911
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-09-10 23:45
Group 1: Macro Strategy and Market Overview - The report emphasizes the importance of coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to support economic recovery amid a complex market environment [3] - In the equity market, major indices experienced slight adjustments, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.35% in the first week of September [3] - The central bank maintained a loose liquidity environment, with the DR007 rate staying below 1.5% [3] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Industry Insights - The weight loss market is rapidly growing, with over 2.6 billion people affected by overweight/obesity globally as of 2020, projected to exceed 4 billion by 2035 [5] - Novo Nordisk's oral version of semaglutide has been accepted for FDA review, marking a significant advancement in the oral GLP-1 weight loss drug market [5] - Data underperformance in oral GLP-1 pipelines may accelerate domestic BD opportunities, with potential for local drug companies to achieve significant results [5] Group 3: Energy Sector Analysis - U.S. shale oil companies have reduced capital expenditure and production guidance for 2025, indicating a cautious outlook [6][8] - The report predicts that if WTI prices remain below $60 per barrel, shale oil production may decline significantly [8] - OPEC+ is expected to increase production, potentially leading to oversupply and price corrections in the fourth quarter [9] Group 4: Chemical Industry Developments - China has become the world's largest new energy storage market, with installed capacity reaching 73.76 million kilowatts by the end of 2024 [11] - Prices for paraquat have risen due to strong demand and tight supply, while epoxy chloropropane market transactions have increased [11] Group 5: Retail Sector Performance - Chongqing Department Store reported a revenue of 8 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 10% year-on-year decline, but net profit increased by 8.7% [12] - The company has successfully adjusted 32 stores, resulting in a 53% increase in customer traffic [12] Group 6: Company-Specific Insights - Milky Way's net profit is expected to grow from 6.6 billion to 9.3 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a target price of 81.49 yuan based on a PE of 16 [42][43] - China Ruyi's revenue for H1 2025 reached 2.206 billion yuan, a 19.93% increase, with a net profit turnaround to 1.228 billion yuan [36][37]
天风证券-南网储能-600995-调峰水电来水增加带动利润增长,参与现货市场收益可期-250910
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-10 11:39
Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 3.3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.38% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 832 million yuan, up 32.93% year-on-year, with Q2 net profit at 458 million yuan, increasing by 34.3% [1] - The pumped storage capacity is set to enter the production phase, with the company participating in the spot market, indicating potential revenue growth [1] Group 2 - As of the first half of 2025, the national pumped storage installed capacity reached 61.29 million kilowatts, with an addition of 2.83 million kilowatts [1] - The company has a total pumped storage capacity of 10.28 million kilowatts, with 10 plants under construction totaling 12 million kilowatts [1] - The company’s first phase of the Meixu power station began trading in the electricity spot market in October 2024, with continuous settlement trial operations starting on June 29, 2025 [1] Group 3 - The company’s peak regulation hydropower generation increased to 4.35 billion kilowatt-hours in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.3% [1] - The new energy storage capacity reached 654.2 thousand kilowatts and 129.83 million kilowatt-hours by the end of June 2025 [1] - Three new electrochemical energy storage stations were put into operation, including the Yunnan Wenshan Qiubei storage project [1] Group 4 - Increased water inflow contributed to the rise in hydropower generation, while revenue from the Meixu phase one spot market and new energy storage projects also boosted net profit [2] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 1.35 billion, 1.53 billion, and 1.91 billion yuan respectively [2] - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 27.9, 24.6, and 19.7 times for the respective years [2]
南网储能(600995):调峰水电来水增加带动利润增长,参与现货市场收益可期
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-09-10 09:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5][16]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 832 million yuan, an increase of 32.93% year-on-year [1]. - The increase in hydropower generation due to improved water inflow and the participation in the spot market are expected to enhance profitability [2][3]. - The company has a total installed capacity of 10.28 million kilowatts for pumped storage, with ongoing projects expected to contribute to future revenue [2]. - The new energy storage projects have been successfully launched, contributing to the overall profit growth [3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a hydropower generation of 4.35 billion kilowatt-hours in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.3% [3]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1.35 billion, 1.53 billion, and 1.91 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27.9, 24.6, and 19.7 [4]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 5.63 billion yuan in 2023 to 9.38 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 15.34% [4][10]. Market Participation - The company’s pumped storage project in Meizhou has been participating in the electricity spot market since October 2024, with plans to expand its participation [2]. - The transition to continuous settlement in the southern region's electricity spot market is expected to further enhance the company's revenue from electricity sales [2]. New Energy Initiatives - The company has successfully launched three new energy storage projects with a total capacity of 225 MW, contributing to its revenue stream [3]. - The total installed capacity for new energy storage as of June 2025 is 654.2 MW, with a total energy storage capacity of 1,298.3 MWh [3].
电力板块9月10日跌0.38%,上海电力领跌,主力资金净流出5.18亿元
Market Overview - The electricity sector experienced a decline of 0.38% on the previous trading day, with Shanghai Electric leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.22, up 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12557.68, up 0.38% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the electricity sector included: - Yunnan Energy Investment (002053) with a closing price of 14.74, up 10.00% and a trading volume of 303,200 shares, totaling 430 million yuan [1] - Shimao Energy (605028) with a closing price of 25.55, up 9.99% and a trading volume of 121,700 shares, totaling 299 million yuan [1] - Major decliners included: - Shanghai Electric (600021) with a closing price of 20.79, down 10.00% and a trading volume of 836,600 shares, totaling 1.752 billion yuan [2] - Jinko Technology (601778) with a closing price of 4.28, down 3.82% and a trading volume of 1,939,100 shares, totaling 83.6 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The electricity sector saw a net outflow of 518 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 904 million yuan [2] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Yunnan Energy Investment (002053) with a net inflow of 85.63 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Shimao Energy (605028) with a net inflow of 79.18 million yuan from institutional investors [3]
南网储能2025年半年度业绩说明会问答实录
Quan Jing Wang· 2025-09-10 03:06
2025年09月05日,南网储能2025年半年度业绩说明会在全景网顺利举行。出席本次业绩说明会的人员有 董事长刘国刚、董事、总经理李定林、独立董事杨璐、副总经理、总会计师高磊、董事会秘书钟林。 根据全景数据后台统计,在今天的交流过程中,来自全国多个省、市地区的投资者共向上市公司提问16 个,公司嘉宾共回答问题16个,答复率100.00%,充分实现了上市公司与投资者的良好互动。 以下为业绩说明会问答实录: 1、问:公司抽水蓄能电站的装机容量已达到千万千瓦比肩国投等水电龙头,请问抽水蓄能电站的盈利 模型是否可以类比水电站?公司的资本支出周期是怎么样的?未来抽水蓄能电站还有多少新增装机空 间?【征集问题】 回答:尊敬的投资者您好。抽水蓄能作为电力系统的重要调节性电源,具有调峰、调频、调压、系统备 用和黑启动等多种功能。与常规水电站的盈利机制不同,目前公司的抽水蓄能电站还是按照《关于进一 步完善抽水蓄能价格形成机制的意见》(发改价格〔2021〕633号) 的要求执行两部制电价,包括容量电 价和电量电价。公司按照工程项目建设周期匹配相应资本性筹资安排,2025年拟安排固定资产投资99亿 元,其中电源基建投资90.89亿 ...
南网储能(600995):抽蓄参与现货+调峰水电偏丰,净利同比增长33%
Great Wall Securities· 2025-09-08 09:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a stock price increase of 5% to 15% relative to the industry index over the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company is the only pumped storage and independent energy storage operator under the Southern Power Grid, benefiting from high-quality pumped storage project resources and the opportunities presented by electricity spot market reforms and the construction of a new power system [4][5]. - The company achieved a revenue of 3.301 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.38%, and a net profit of 832 million yuan, up 32.93% year-on-year [1][2]. - The report forecasts revenues of 7.318 billion, 9.099 billion, and 10.890 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 1.352 billion, 1.617 billion, and 1.888 billion yuan for the same years [4]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 5.630 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of -31.9% year-on-year. By 2024, revenue is expected to increase to 6.174 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 9.7% [1]. - The net profit for 2023 was 1.014 billion yuan, with a projected growth of -39.1% year-on-year, and is expected to rise to 1.126 billion yuan in 2024, showing an 11.1% increase [1]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 5.1% in 2023 to 7.8% by 2027 [1]. Business Segments - The pumped storage business generated a revenue of 2.186 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.99%, with a gross margin of 49.3% [2]. - The peak regulation hydropower business reported a generation of 4.35 billion kWh in the first half of 2025, a 23.33% increase year-on-year, with revenue of 882 million yuan, up 23.39% [3]. - The new energy storage business achieved a revenue of 178 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a growth of 28.27% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 30.7% [3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to gradually expand the scale of its pumped storage plants participating in the electricity spot market, which is expected to enhance revenue from electricity sales [2]. - The report anticipates that the company will continue to benefit from favorable water conditions and the expansion of its energy storage capacity, with new projects expected to contribute to revenue growth [3][4].
A股电力股普涨,上海电力涨超8%
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-09-08 02:53
Group 1 - The A-share market saw a general rise in electric power stocks, with Shanghai Electric increasing by over 8% [1] - Other notable performers included Energy Saving Wind Power and Jidian Co., both rising over 4%, while South Network Energy Storage increased by over 3% [1] - The MACD golden cross signal formation indicates a positive trend for these stocks [2] Group 2 - Shanghai Electric's market capitalization is 63.3 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 152.91% [2] - Energy Saving Wind Power has a market capitalization of 20.7 billion and a year-to-date increase of 3.04% [2] - Jidian Co. has a market capitalization of 20.9 billion and a year-to-date increase of 10.13% [2] - South Network Energy Storage has a market capitalization of 36.6 billion and a year-to-date increase of 13.95% [2]
今日看点|国新办将举行新闻发布会,介绍中国—东盟经贸合作情况暨第22届中国—东盟博览会、中国—东盟商务与投资峰会有关情况
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-09-08 02:04
Group 1 - The State Council Information Office will hold two press conferences on September 8, focusing on the China-ASEAN economic cooperation and the 22nd China-ASEAN Expo and Business and Investment Summit [2] - The 25th China International Investment and Trade Fair will take place from September 8 to 11 in Xiamen, featuring approximately 120,000 square meters of exhibition space and over 70 investment-themed events [3] - A total of 605.61 billion yuan worth of restricted shares will be unlocked today, with 12 companies involved, totaling 2.935 billion shares [3] Group 2 - The unlocking of shares includes significant volumes from companies such as Nanfang Energy Storage, Times Electric, and Huayin Technology, with respective unlock volumes of 2.087 billion shares, 590 million shares, and 102 million shares [3] - The market value of unlocked shares is substantial, with Times Electric, Nanfang Energy Storage, and Huayin Technology leading at 27.823 billion yuan, 23.081 billion yuan, and 6.882 billion yuan respectively [3] - Today, 1,827 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos will mature, with the operation rate set at 1.40% [3]