桐昆股份(601233) 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 04 日 Q3 长丝需求偏弱，反内卷下看好盈利修复 ——桐昆股份 25Q3 点评 事件 ❑ 公司发布 2025 三季报，前三季度公司实现营收 673.97 亿元，同比降 11.38%，归 母净利润 15.49 亿元，同比增 53.83%。其中 25Q3 单季度营收 232.39 亿元，同比 降 16.51%，环比降 6.06%，归母净利润 4.52 亿元，同比增 872.09%，环比降 6.88%。 点评 ❑ Q3 涤纶长丝需求偏弱，销量业绩环比有所下滑 25 年前三季度，国内服装鞋帽、针、纺织品类商品零售额累计同比增 3.1%，纺 织服装出口累计同比降 0.33%，内需韧性较强但出口略有下滑。前三季度公司涤 纶长丝、PTA 销量同比分别降 3.3%、增 22.9%，其中 25Q3 单季度涤纶长丝销量 同比降 10.9%、环比降 7.5%，涤纶长丝价差以 POY 为例，环比也有所下降，我 们认为主要系天气影响，今年纺织服装"金九"有所推迟，三季度长丝需求偏弱 影响。三季度公司毛利率 4.01%，同比增 0.69pct，环比降 2.00pct；净利率 ...

11月4日，桐昆股份盘中下跌2.02%，截至14:17，报14.08元/股，成交2.28亿元，换手率0.66%，总市值 338.59亿元。 截至9月30日，桐昆股份股东户数5.01万，较上期减少28.96%；人均流通股47780股，较上期增加 40.76%。2025年1月-9月，桐昆股份实现营业收入673.97亿元，同比减少11.38%；归母净利润15.49亿 元，同比增长53.83%。 分红方面，桐昆股份A股上市后累计派现32.03亿元。近三年，累计派现3.41亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，桐昆股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第五大流 通股东，持股3592.21万股，相比上期增加946.67万股。鹏华中证细分化工产业主题ETF联接A （014942）位居第八大流通股东，持股2527.48万股，为新进股东。南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第 九大流通股东，持股2450.55万股，相比上期减少48.23万股。汇丰晋信新动力混合A（000965）退出十 大流通股东之列。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出1152.67万元，特大单买入0.00元，占比0.00%， ...

| 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601857 | 中国石油 | 4.48 | 0.14 | 29450.82 | | 600759 | 洲际油气 | 10.13 | 12.21 | 25510.79 | | 600938 | 中国海油 | 4.83 | 2.71 | 15607.42 | | 002554 | 惠博普 | 10.15 | 6.64 | 8012.11 | | 600028 | 中国石化 | 1.83 | 0.19 | 7299.49 | | 300164 | 通源石油 | 3.94 | 19.02 | 5568.13 | | 600968 | 海油发展 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 5389.08 | | 600583 | 海油工程 | 3.13 | 2.11 | 3824.03 | | 603619 | 中曼石油 | 3.44 | 5.29 | 2506.10 | | 600346 | 恒力石化 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 2495.80 | | 60050 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Big Refining Weekly Report: PTA Industry Development Symposium Held, Pay Attention to the Advancement of Anti-Involution in the Chemical Industry [1] - Report Date: November 2, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Chen Shuxian, Zhou Shaowen [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the big refining industry, including the performance of key refining projects, the polyester, refining, and chemical sectors, and the market performance of related listed companies [2] Summary by Directory 1. Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Price and Spread Data**: Domestic key big refining project spread is 2,450 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton (down 4%) week-on-week; foreign key big refining project spread is 1,302 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan/ton (up 6%) week-on-week [2] - **Polyester Sector**: POY/FDY/DTY industry average prices are 6,429/6,679/7,779 yuan/ton, up 21/61/46 yuan/ton respectively; POY/FDY/DTY industry weekly average profits are -17/-116/17 yuan/ton, down 88/62/72 yuan/ton respectively; POY/FDY/DTY industry inventories are 8.5/18.3/24.5 days, down 3.3/3.6/5.0 days respectively; filament开工率 is 90.9%, down 0.1 pct; downstream loom开工率 is 69.0%, up 2.6 pct; weaving enterprise raw material inventory is 14.0 days, up 2.9 days; weaving enterprise finished product inventory is 23.0 days, down 1.1 days [2] - **Refining Sector**: Domestic refined oil: gasoline/diesel prices declined this week; US refined oil: US gasoline/diesel/aviation kerosene prices rose this week [2] - **Chemical Sector**: This week's PX average price is 820.7 US dollars/ton, up 26.3 US dollars/ton; the spread to crude oil is 344.9 US dollars/ton, up 8.2 US dollars/ton; PX开工率 is 87.1%, up 0.8 pct [2] - **Related Listed Companies**: Private big refining & polyester filament: Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd., Xin凤鸣 [2] 2. Big Refining Weekly Report 2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends - **Market Performance Comparison**: The report presents the price trends and spreads of domestic and foreign big refining projects, as well as the market performance of six private big refining companies compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, the petroleum and petrochemical index, and the Brent crude oil price [13][15][17] 2.2 Polyester Sector - **Price and Profit Analysis**: The report analyzes the prices, spreads, and profits of various polyester products, including PX, PTA, MEG, POY, FDY, DTY, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle chips, as well as their relationships with raw material prices and inventories [23][24][35] - **开工率 and Inventory Analysis**: It also examines the开工率 and inventory levels of polyester products and their downstream industries, such as looms, and analyzes the seasonal distribution of polyester filament production and sales rates [30][42][56] 2.3 Refining Sector - **Domestic Refined Oil**: The report analyzes the prices and spreads of domestic gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene compared to crude oil prices [78][80][87] - **US Refined Oil**: It also examines the prices and spreads of US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene compared to crude oil prices [92][94][101] - **European Refined Oil**: The report analyzes the prices and spreads of European gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene compared to crude oil prices [106][108][114] - **Singapore Refined Oil**: It also examines the prices and spreads of Singapore gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene compared to crude oil prices [118][120][126] 2.4 Chemical Sector - **Price and Spread Analysis**: The report analyzes the prices and spreads of various chemical products, including polyethylene, polypropylene, EVA, styrene, acrylonitrile, PC, MMA, etc., compared to crude oil prices [132][141]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [150] Core Insights - The report highlights an improvement in demand for polyester filament yarn, leading to a continued reduction in inventory levels [2] - The Brent crude oil average price for the week ending October 31, 2025, was $65.18 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.96% [2][3] - Domestic and international refining project price differentials were tracked, with domestic projects at 2337.32 CNY/ton, down 1.97%, and international projects at 1303.72 CNY/ton, up 6.53% [2][3] Refining Sector Summary - The market is questioning the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia, while OPEC+ is inclined to slightly increase production in December [2] - The EIA inventory data provided positive support, alleviating concerns over trade tensions [2] - As of October 31, 2025, the prices for Brent and WTI crude oil were $65.07 and $60.98 per barrel, respectively [2][14] Chemical Sector Summary - Chemical prices generally declined, with significant narrowing of price differentials [2] - Polyolefins showed stable price movements, while EVA continued to weaken with noticeable price drops [2] - Benzene prices faced downward pressure due to high invisible inventory levels, leading to slight price fluctuations [2] Polyester & Nylon Sector Summary - Demand for polyester filament yarn has rebounded, with inventory levels decreasing significantly [2] - The government has introduced policies to optimize the supply structure, improving medium to long-term supply-demand expectations [2] - The average prices for polyester filament yarn were reported as follows: POY at 6439.29 CNY/ton, FDY at 6675.00 CNY/ton, and DTY at 7725.00 CNY/ton [2][87] Major Refining Companies Performance - The stock price changes for six major refining companies as of October 31, 2025, were as follows: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+2.62%), Hengli Petrochemical (+6.40%), Dongfang Shenghong (-1.18%), Hengyi Petrochemical (-4.15%), Tongkun Co. (-0.49%), and Xin Fengming (+1.53%) [2][137]

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. (桐昆股份) has experienced a decline in stock price and a significant change in shareholder structure, while showing a mixed performance in financial results for the third quarter of 2025 [1][2][3]. Shareholder Changes - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased to 50,100, down by 20,400 or 28.96% from June 30, 2025. The average number of shares held per shareholder increased from 34,100 to 48,000, with an average holding value of 719,800 yuan [2][5]. Financial Performance Highlights - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 67.397 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.38%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.549 billion yuan, an increase of 53.83%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.303 billion yuan, up 58.07%. In the third quarter alone, revenue was 23.239 billion yuan, down 16.51%, while net profit surged to 452 million yuan, a staggering increase of 872.09% [3][5]. Company Announcements - On October 28, 2025, the company’s supervisory board decided to abolish the supervisory board and transfer its responsibilities to an audit committee under the board of directors, pending shareholder approval. Additionally, the board approved a plan to use up to 1 billion yuan of idle funds for government bond repurchase transactions, aimed at improving capital efficiency and increasing operational income without affecting normal operations [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to the positive outlook for the long filament market and the anticipated reversal in PTA profitability [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 67.397 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.549 billion yuan, an increase of 53.83% [1] - For Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.452 billion yuan, which includes investment income from joint ventures and associates of 0.325 billion yuan and asset disposal gains of 0.279 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 872.09% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.88% [1] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025, projecting net profits of 2.041 billion yuan (down 5.00%), 3.648 billion yuan, and 4.274 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.85 (down 0.21), 1.52, and 1.78 yuan [1] Group 2: Sales and Pricing - In Q3 2025, the company's polyester filament sales totaled 3.19 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.5% [2] - The sales breakdown for Q3 2025 included POY at 2.36 million tons (73.9%), FDY at 0.53 million tons (16.5%), and DTY at 0.30 million tons (9.5%) [2] - The average price spread for POY in Q3 2025 was 1,171 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton compared to Q2 [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The domestic polyester filament industry is expected to see a slowdown in new capacity growth, with steady demand leading to an increase in profitability [3] - The PTA industry is anticipated to have limited new capacity in the future, and the high concentration of the industry will provide leading companies with pricing power [3] - As of late October 2025, PTA price spreads have dropped to below 100 yuan, resulting in deep losses across the industry, but production companies are expected to have pricing power [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's Q3 performance was impacted by a decline in PTA profitability, but there is optimism for a rebound in PTA prices [4][6] - The company achieved a revenue of 67.397 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.549 billion yuan, an increase of 53.83% [4] - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.041 billion yuan, 3.648 billion yuan, and 4.274 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.85 yuan, 1.52 yuan, and 1.78 yuan [4][7] Financial Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported a net profit of 0.452 billion yuan, which includes investment income from joint ventures of 0.325 billion yuan and asset disposal gains of 0.279 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 872.09% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.88% [4][5] - The polyester filament sales volume in Q3 2025 was 3.19 million tons, down 10.9% year-on-year and 7.5% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The average price spread for POY in Q3 2025 was 1,171 yuan/ton, a slight decrease from Q2 [5] Industry Outlook - The report indicates that the domestic polyester filament industry is expected to see a slowdown in new capacity growth, with steady demand leading to an increase in profitability [6] - The PTA industry is anticipated to have limited new capacity in the future, which may enhance pricing power for leading companies [6] - As of late October 2025, PTA price spreads have dropped to around 100 yuan, pushing the industry into deep losses, but there is potential for price increases as production companies seek to recover [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure in the filament industry, but it is expected to benefit from the recovery of PTA prices due to anti-involution measures [1][7] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue decline of 11.38% year-on-year, but a net profit increase of 53.83% year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material costs and increased investment income [7] - The company has a nominal PTA capacity of 10.2 million tons and is expected to benefit from the gradual improvement in the PTA industry as leading companies collaborate to reduce production [7] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company's main revenue is projected to grow from 61,993.35 million in 2022 to 101,306.83 million in 2024, followed by a decline to 95,756.72 million in 2025, and then a recovery to 110,795.26 million by 2027 [4] - **Net Profit**: The net profit is expected to increase significantly from 130.21 million in 2022 to 2,361.26 million in 2025, reaching 4,408.73 million by 2027 [4] - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 3.23% in 2022 to 8.94% by 2027 [4] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to rise from 0.05 in 2022 to 1.83 by 2027 [4] - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PE)**: The PE ratio is expected to decrease from 266.32 in 2022 to 7.87 by 2027 [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading integrated player in the filament industry, with a focus on expanding into western regions and international markets, which is expected to enhance its long-term growth potential [7] - The average operating rate in the polyester filament industry is around 90%, but weak downstream demand has led to price fluctuations [7] - The PTA industry is expected to see a recovery due to improved cost support and a favorable external trade environment, which may lead to a warmer market for filament products [7]

Core Insights - The refining and trading sector saw a slight increase of 0.12% on October 31, with Heshun Petroleum leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3954.79, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13378.21, down 1.14% [1] Sector Performance - Heshun Petroleum (603353) closed at 21.58, up 5.58% with a trading volume of 97,600 shares and a transaction value of 211 million yuan [1] - Hengtong Co. (603223) closed at 9.91, up 3.77% with a trading volume of 101,000 shares and a transaction value of 98.88 million yuan [1] - International Long (000819) closed at 18.07, up 3.26% with a trading volume of 96,800 shares and a transaction value of 173 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included Runbei Aerospace (001316) up 2.57%, Bohai Chemical (600800) up 1.86%, and Wanbangda (300055) up 1.68% [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The refining and trading sector experienced a net inflow of 176 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 85.98 million yuan [2] - Notable stocks with significant fund flow included Guanghui Energy (600256) which saw a net outflow of 2.23% [2]