1月28日，A股三大指数表现分化，沪指再次走出"W"态势收涨0.27%，创业板指跌0.57%。行情逻辑围绕"涨价"主线展开，资源品全线走强，有色领涨两 市。全市场超3600只个股下跌，两市成交额2.97万亿元。 | 序号 代码 | | 名称 | 现价 | | 涨跌 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 159876 主 | 有色ETF华宝 | 1.324 c | 0.086 | 695% | | 2 | 159220 | 跨 港股通红利低波ETF华宝 T+0 | 0.636 c | 0.017 | 2.75% | | 3 | 516020 | 主 化工ETF | 0.993 c | 0.024 | 2.48% | | 4 | 520560 | 跨 香港大盘30ETF T+0 | 0.968 c | 0.022 | 2.33% | | 5 | 159707 | 行 地产ETF | 0.644 c | 0.013 | 2.06% | | 6 | 562080 | 策 300现金流ETF | 0.650 c | 0.013 | 2.04% | | 7 ...

来源：沪深交易所等，截至2026.1.28。 化工板块午后继续上攻！反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）盘中场内价格一度涨超3%，截 至发稿，涨2.48%。 成份股方面，和邦生物、浙江龙盛双双涨停，卫星化学大涨超9%，华峰化学、桐昆股份、鲁西化工等 亦涨幅居前。 | | | 分时 8日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 夏多 | | | | | | | | 化工ETF O | | | | 516020 | | | F9 盘机盘版 盘加 九转 图线 工具 @ D > | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1,000 | | | | 516020RZ.ETF1 13:49 於 0.993 股股 0.024(2.48%) J.90 ...

展望后市，中银证券指出，2025年化工行业景气度处于低位。展望2026年，本轮行业扩产已近尾声，"反内卷"等措施有望催化行业盈利底部修复，同时新材 料受益于下游需求的快速发展，有望开启新一轮高成长。 国金证券表示，继续看好大化工板块投资机会，方向上，看好龙头、供给端有变化的及深度承压的子行业。 化工板块今日（1月28日）重拾攻势，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘短暂震荡后直线拉升，盘中场内价格一度涨超2%，截至发稿，涨 1.96%。 成份股方面，纯碱、石化、氮肥等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，浙江龙盛涨停，和邦生物大涨超9%，卫星化学涨超7%，宝丰能源、恒逸石化双双涨 超6%。 | | | 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 | | 60分 日 周 月 | 中容 | | | Eg | | 盘前盘后 叠加 九转 画线 丁具 谷 | (2) | | 4. LEFE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.988 | | | | | 51 ...

化工板块盘中持续走高，染料、聚氨酯方向领涨，和邦生物封涨停，此前锦鸡股份、沧州大化、百川股 份、中农联合等涨停，卫星化学、氯碱化工、华峰化学、恒逸石化、桐昆股份跟涨。 ...

在新能源汽车替代燃油车、运输"以铁替公"战略等影响下，我国汽柴油需求整体呈现增长放缓趋势。但 在供给端有炼油产能红线限制与炼厂"减油增化"的结构性优化，成本端原油价格处于炼油舒适区、叠加 OSP升水下调改善，国内成品油整体裂差中枢逐步上移。此外，海外成品油裂差在俄罗斯炼厂遇袭、美 国炼厂开工率下行背景下走高。我国头部炼厂炼油端利润将实现改善，炼厂可利用成品油出口配额获 利。 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，炼油化工板块在供给端存在政策限制及结构优化，需求端存 在SAF等新兴油品快速增长，成本端油价与OSP官价已调整至炼厂成本舒适区，成品油裂差中枢、化工 品芳烃PTA价差、硫磺价格率先启动，有望在中期维度带动炼厂盈利持续修复，重点推荐国内炼油、炼 化产能及技术领先企业。重点推荐中国石油(601857.SH)、荣盛石化(002493.SZ)、桐昆股份 (601233.SH)。 国信证券主要观点如下： 工信部印发石化化工行业稳增长方案，行业"减油增化"稳步推进 2025年9月，工业和信息化部等七部门印发《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案(2025 —2026年)》，提出了 石化化工行业稳增长的总体要求、主要目标、 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月27日 炼油化工专题 优于大市 供给长期收缩叠加成本下行，炼油炼化利润迎来中期修复 工信部印发石化化工行业稳增长方案，行业"减油增化"稳步推进。2025 年 9 月，工业和信息化部等七部门印发《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025 —2026 年）》，提出了石化化工行业稳增长的总体要求、主要目标、工作举 措和保障措施，促进石化化工行业平稳运行和结构优化升级。《方案》指出， 严控新增炼油产能，合理确定乙烯、对二甲苯新增产能规模和投放节奏，防 范煤制甲醇行业产能过剩风险。石化领域严格执行新建炼油项目产能减量置 换要求，重点支持石化老旧装置改造、新技术产业化示范以及现有炼化企业 "减油增化"项目。我国炼油产能逼近 10 亿吨政策红线，未来规模以下中 小产能逐步整合淘汰，千万吨级以上炼厂占比提升，行业格局不断优化；成 品油需求增量有限，"减油增化"将成为炼厂转型必由之路。 国际油价窄幅波动，沙特 OSP 升水下调，炼化成本端逐步改善。近期，全球 外部环境急剧变化，同时俄乌、美伊存在较大不确定性，但考虑到 OPEC+的 财政平衡油价成本，以及美国页岩油较高的新井成本，预计 2026 年 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月27日 炼油化工专题 优于大市 供给长期收缩叠加成本下行，炼油炼化利润迎来中期修复 工信部印发石化化工行业稳增长方案，行业"减油增化"稳步推进。2025 年 9 月，工业和信息化部等七部门印发《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025 —2026 年）》，提出了石化化工行业稳增长的总体要求、主要目标、工作举 措和保障措施，促进石化化工行业平稳运行和结构优化升级。《方案》指出， 严控新增炼油产能，合理确定乙烯、对二甲苯新增产能规模和投放节奏，防 范煤制甲醇行业产能过剩风险。石化领域严格执行新建炼油项目产能减量置 换要求，重点支持石化老旧装置改造、新技术产业化示范以及现有炼化企业 "减油增化"项目。我国炼油产能逼近 10 亿吨政策红线，未来规模以下中 小产能逐步整合淘汰，千万吨级以上炼厂占比提升，行业格局不断优化；成 品油需求增量有限，"减油增化"将成为炼厂转型必由之路。 国际油价窄幅波动，沙特 OSP 升水下调，炼化成本端逐步改善。近期，全球 外部环境急剧变化，同时俄乌、美伊存在较大不确定性，但考虑到 OPEC+的 财政平衡油价成本，以及美国页岩油较高的新井成本，预计 2026 年 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Overweight [2] Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a dual drive of cyclical recovery and growth, with a recommendation to focus on sectors such as organic silicon, PTA, polyester filament, caprolactam, spandex, vitamins, sweeteners, refrigerants, and phosphorus chemicals [5][6] - The organic silicon industry is entering a recovery phase, with new applications becoming key growth drivers. From 2019 to 2024, domestic DMC capacity is expected to expand rapidly, leading to a temporary oversupply and price decline. However, by 2025, no new capacity is anticipated, and demand from emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics is expected to maintain high growth [5][6] - The PTA/polyester filament industry is approaching a turning point, with capacity expansion cycles nearing their end. The demand side is expected to continue growing, supported by improved external demand due to easing trade tensions [6] - Refrigerants are entering a high prosperity cycle due to quota policies that will reduce supply while demand remains stable, driven by market expansion in Southeast Asia and the development of heat pumps and cold chain markets [7] - The synthetic biology sector is poised for significant growth as fossil-based materials face disruptive challenges, with a focus on energy-efficient products and the potential for bio-based materials to see explosive demand [8] - OLED technology is rapidly penetrating various markets, with government policies supporting the development of new display industries and accelerating the localization of key materials and equipment [9] - The demand for electronic chemicals is increasing due to the rapid growth of the semiconductor industry, particularly in China, where the market is heavily reliant on imports [11] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector ranked 4th in overall performance for the week of January 19-23, 2026, with a gain of 7.29%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.45 percentage points [5][20] - The top-performing sub-sectors included textile chemical products (13.10%), nitrogen fertilizers (10.58%), and other chemical raw materials (10.09%) [21] Key Company Dynamics - The top three gaining companies for the week were Jianghua Micro (46.41%), Jiuding New Materials (28.47%), and Hongbaoli (26.73%) [26] - The companies in focus for potential investment include KaiSai Biological, Huaheng Biological, and other leading firms in synthetic biology and electronic chemicals [8][11][32] Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued guidelines for the construction of zero-carbon factories, aiming to establish a benchmark by 2027 across various sectors [35] - The U.S. government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quotas, maintaining high growth targets while addressing industry concerns [35]

行 业 及 产 业 石油石化 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 相关研究 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 研究支持 丁莹 A0230125070005 dingying@swsresearch.com 联系人 丁莹 A0230125070005 dingying@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 25 日 供给增量上调，EIA 预计今年全球 原油有 283 万桶/天的供应过剩 看好 ——石油化工行业周报(2026/1/19—2026/1/25) 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 - ⚫ 三大机构上调石油供给预测，EIA 预计今年全球原油将有 283 万桶/天的供应过剩。价格 端来看，EIA 上调 2026 年原油价格预测，下调 2026 年天然气价格预测：EIA 预计 2026、2027 年原油均价为 56、54 美元/桶；EIA 预计 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The chemical sector has shown resilience with the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rising by 5.73% and the Shenwan Chemical Index increasing by 7.29% this week [13][16]. - Key sub-industries such as soda ash, chlor-alkali, and dyeing chemicals have experienced significant price increases, with soda ash rising by 13.3% [16]. - The report highlights the competitive strength of domestic tire manufacturers and suggests focusing on companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire as potential growth opportunities [4]. - The polyurethane project by Huide Technology, with an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons, has commenced, indicating strategic growth in the new materials sector [3]. - The report emphasizes the tightening supply-demand dynamics in the phosphate chemical sector due to environmental regulations and increasing demand from the new energy sector [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.84%, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.34% [13]. - The overall performance of the chemical sector is positive, with notable gains in various sub-industries [16]. Key Sub-Industry Developments - **Polyurethane**: The price of pure MDI in East China is reported at 17,600 RMB/ton, showing a week-on-week decline of 1.12% [28]. - **Tires**: The operating load for all-steel tires in Shandong is at 62.70%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.70% [49]. - **Fertilizers**: Urea prices are at 1,757.45 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.4% [63]. - **Vitamins**: The price of Vitamin A is reported at 61.5 RMB/kg, down 1.6% week-on-week [79]. Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic tire companies are positioned strongly, with a focus on growth stocks [4]. - **Consumer Electronics**: Recovery in demand is anticipated, benefiting upstream material companies [4]. - **Phosphate Chemicals**: Supply constraints due to environmental policies are expected to tighten the market [4]. - **Vitamin Supply**: Supply disruptions in Vitamin A and E are noted, creating potential investment opportunities [4].