Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the PTA industry, indicating a potential for recovery but highlighting ongoing challenges in profitability [4][10]. Core Insights - The PTA industry has been experiencing prolonged losses, with a significant decline in profitability expected in 2025 due to increased production capacity and a negative gross margin of -319 RMB/ton as of November 7 [4][6]. - An increase in maintenance schedules for PTA facilities is anticipated, which may lead to a tightening of supply and a potential recovery in profitability if production cuts are realized [6][8]. - The report suggests that the polyester sector may see a recovery in profitability as supply and demand dynamics improve, particularly for leading companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The PTA industry has been in a state of oversupply since 2022, leading to consistent losses across the sector, with only a few companies managing to achieve marginal profits [4][6]. - Recent data indicates that the industry operating rate is at 78%, reflecting a weak market environment [8]. 2. Maintenance and Supply Dynamics - Several PTA facilities are undergoing planned maintenance, including major players like Yisheng Dihua and Sichuan Energy Investment, which may further restrict supply in the short term [6][7]. - The report notes that if leading PTA companies continue to implement production cuts, the industry could see a return to breakeven profitability levels, with potential profit margins of 200-300 RMB per ton [8]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading polyester companies and high-quality refining firms, suggesting that companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical may benefit from improved market conditions [10]. - It also highlights the potential for recovery in the oil and gas sector, particularly for offshore service companies, as capital expenditures remain high [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, particularly regarding the PTA sector, due to increased maintenance schedules and anticipated production cuts [3][4]. Core Insights - The PTA industry has been in a prolonged state of loss since 2022, exacerbated by rapid capacity expansion. As of November 7, 2025, the PTA industry's gross profit reached -319 CNY/ton, indicating a loss across the sector [3][4]. - Recent increases in PTA maintenance schedules are expected to tighten supply, with major companies like Tongkun and Hengli yet to announce maintenance plans. If these companies proceed with production cuts, industry profitability may return to breakeven levels, with potential profit per ton increasing by 200-300 CNY [3][8]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a decline in oil prices, with Brent crude closing at 63.63 USD/barrel, down 2.21% from the previous week. This decline is coupled with an increase in drilling day rates for self-elevating platforms, indicating a recovery trend in the oil service sector [15][33]. Summary by Sections PTA Sector - The PTA industry is facing a significant downturn, with losses expected to continue into 2025. The increase in maintenance schedules is anticipated to reduce supply and support a recovery in profitability [3][4][8]. - Current PTA operating rates are at 78%, reflecting weak industry conditions, but with no significant inventory pressure, a quicker recovery is expected as maintenance plans are realized [8][10]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices have decreased, with a closing price of 63.63 USD/barrel, while WTI prices also fell to 59.75 USD/barrel. The overall trend suggests a potential for further price declines, although OPEC's production cuts may provide some support [15][17]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. has increased slightly, indicating a potential uptick in exploration and production activities despite a year-over-year decline [25][30]. Refining Sector - The refining sector is seeing improved margins, with the Singapore refining margin rising to 23.18 USD/barrel. This improvement is attributed to a recovery in demand and a tightening of supply due to maintenance activities [46][48]. - The domestic refining sector's product price differentials have also improved, suggesting a favorable environment for refining profitability moving forward [46][48]. Polyester Sector - The polyester chain is showing signs of recovery, with expectations for improved profitability as supply and demand dynamics shift. Key companies to watch include Tongkun and Wankai New Materials [10][11].

从基金十大重仓股角度 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 数据显示，东兴基金旗下1只基金重仓桐昆股份。东兴中证A500指数增强A（024274）三季度持有股数 6.81万股，占基金净值比例为1.34%，位居第十大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约5.38万元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 东兴中证A500指数增强A（024274）成立日期2025年7月1日，最新规模4171.59万。成立以来收益 13.97%。 11月10日，桐昆股份涨5.2%，截至发稿，报15.98元/股，成交4.77亿元，换手率1.27%，总市值384.28亿 元。 东兴中证A500指数增强A（024274）基金经理为李兵伟。 资料显示，桐昆集团股份有限公司位于浙江省桐乡市梧桐街道凤凰湖大道518号，成立日期1999年9月27 日，上市日期2011年5月18日，公司主营业务涉及从事各类民用涤纶长丝、坯布的生产、销售。主营业 务收入构成为：涤纶预取向丝61.10%，精对苯二甲酸37.69%，涤纶牵伸丝 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 67.4 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.55 billion yuan, an increase of 53.8% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 23.24 billion yuan, down 16.5% year-on-year and 6.1% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 450 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a net profit of 1.55 billion yuan, up 53.8% year-on-year, and a non-recurring net profit of 1.3 billion yuan, up 58.1% year-on-year [1] - In Q3, the company recorded a net profit of 450 million yuan, a significant improvement from losses in the previous year [1] Industry Context - The PTA segment's losses impacted Q3 profitability, with the company being the largest polyester filament producer globally, having a capacity of 13.5 million tons/year for polyester filament and 10.2 million tons/year for PTA as of mid-2025 [2] - The polyester filament industry is experiencing a slowdown in capacity expansion, with a projected 2.3% year-on-year decline in capacity for 2024, indicating an improvement in supply-demand dynamics [3] Strategic Developments - The company has made a strategic breakthrough by acquiring high-quality coal resources in the Turpan region, with reserves of 500 million tons and an initial mining capacity of 5 million tons/year [3] - The company is diversifying its operations by expanding into coal resources, achieving full-category coverage from oil and gas to coal [3] Market Outlook - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a meeting to address the over-competition in the PTA and bottle-grade polyester chip industries, which may lead to improved market conditions [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the potential recovery in the polyester filament market, leveraging its significant market share and diversified operations [4]

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨桐昆股份（601233.SH） [Table_Title] Q3 浙石化贡献提升，看好反内卷带动景气修复 报告要点 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 李禹默 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490525060002 SFC：BUT911 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年三季报，Q1-Q3 实现收入 674.0 亿元（同比-11.4%），归属净利润 15.5 亿元 （同比+53.8%），归属扣非净利润 13.0 亿元（同比+58.1%）。其中单三季度实现收入 232.4 亿 元（同比-16.5%，环比-6.1%），实现归属净利润 4.5 亿元（同比扭亏转盈，环比-6.9%），实现 归属扣非净利润 2.5 亿元 （同比扭亏转盈，环比-45.1%）。 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 桐昆股份（601233.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] Q3 浙石化贡献提升 ...

嘉兴素有"江南粮仓""丝绸之府"等美誉，地处浙江省东北部，陆地面积3915平方千米。2024年全市生产 总值为7569.53亿元，同比增长5.6%，排在全省第五位，仅次于杭州、宁波、绍兴和温州。今年前三季 度GDP为5658.15亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.2%。 企业是城市发展的火车头，其中，民营经济是嘉兴经济最大特色、最优资源、最强优势。根据"2025嘉 兴市民营企业营收100强"显示，桐乡市共有20家企业上榜，前五名占据4席；紧随其后的是海宁市16 家，海盐县、南湖区、平湖市各有11家，嘉善县、秀洲区，各有9家，嘉兴港区7家，嘉兴经开区6家。 有4家企业营业收入超过1000亿元，同比增加2家。排在第四位的华友控股集团，营收达到1017.34亿 元。其前身是成立于1994年的桐乡华兴化工实业有限公司，经过31年发展，成长为全球钴行业领导者和 锂电行业龙头企业，构建了钴镍锂资源、有色冶炼、前驱体、正极材料、锂电铜箔的锂电材料一体化产 业链和循环回收的产业生态。 近年来，华友积极"走出去"，例如在投资建设华越、华飞、华科等10余个项目，并规划建设波马拉工业 园（IPIP），打造该国首个从矿产冶炼到新能源 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. has shown a significant stock price increase of 28.88% year-to-date, with a recent rise of 2.03% on November 7, 2023, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Tongkun Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 67.397 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 53.83% to 1.549 billion yuan [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 3.203 billion yuan, with 341 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 28.96% to 50,100, while the average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 40.76% to 47,780 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 9.4667 million shares, and a new entrant, Penghua CSI Segmented Chemical Industry Theme ETF, holding 25.2748 million shares [3]. Stock Market Activity - On November 7, 2023, Tongkun's stock price reached 15.08 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 260 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.73% [1]. - The stock has experienced a 6.05% increase over the last five trading days and a 23.10% increase over the last 60 days [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting potential investment opportunities in specific companies within the sector [6][33][46]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the oil price has shown a slight increase in Q3 2025, with Brent crude averaging $68.2 per barrel, a 2.1% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 19.8% decrease year-on-year [6][22][29]. - The upstream oil and gas sector has seen improved performance due to rising oil prices, while the downstream refining sector is experiencing pressure from weak terminal demand [33][34]. - The report recommends focusing on quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wan Kai New Materials, as well as large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [6][33][46]. Summary by Sections Upstream Oil and Gas Sector - In Q3 2025, the oil and gas extraction and oilfield services sector achieved total revenue of 1,579.75 billion yuan, a 4.0% decrease year-on-year but a 3.5% increase quarter-on-quarter [21][23]. - The net profit for the sector was 93.05 billion yuan, down 6.1% year-on-year but up 6.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 20.9% [21][23]. Downstream Refining and Chemical Sector - The refining and chemical industry reported total revenue of 1,670.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a 5.3% decrease year-on-year but a 3.8% increase quarter-on-quarter [33][34]. - The net profit for this sector was 59.69 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.4% increase year-on-year and a 14.8% increase quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 17.8% [33][34]. Price Trends and Margins - The report notes that the price spread for major petrochemical products has shown mixed trends, with some margins expanding while others contracted [15][18][34]. - The average price spread for ethylene-ethylene was $605 per ton, an increase of $38 per ton quarter-on-quarter, while the propylene-acrylic acid spread decreased by 440 yuan per ton [15][18]. Recommendations - The report suggests that the polyester sector is tightening in supply and demand, with expectations for improvement in profitability, particularly for companies like Tongkun Co. and Wan Kai New Materials [6][33][46]. - It also highlights the potential for large refining companies to benefit from cost improvements and competitive advantages due to domestic policies and overseas refinery contractions [6][33][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry for Q3 2025 [3] Core Insights - Q3 2025 saw a slight recovery in oil prices, with Brent crude averaging $68.2 per barrel, a 2.1% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 19.8% decrease year-on-year [6][22] - The upstream oil and gas sector experienced improved performance due to rising oil prices, while the downstream refining sector faced challenges from weak terminal demand [34][21] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in high-quality companies within the polyester sector and large refining enterprises [6][34] Summary by Sections Upstream Oil and Gas Sector - In Q3 2025, the oil and gas extraction and service industry achieved total revenue of CNY 15,797.5 billion, a 4.0% decrease year-on-year but a 3.5% increase quarter-on-quarter [21] - The net profit for the sector was CNY 930.5 billion, down 6.1% year-on-year but up 6.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 20.9% [21][23] - The report notes that the recovery in oil prices contributed to improved performance in upstream extraction and sales [21] Downstream Refining and Chemical Sector - The refining and chemical industry reported total revenue of CNY 16,702.0 billion in Q3 2025, a 5.3% decrease year-on-year but a 3.8% increase quarter-on-quarter [34] - The net profit for this sector was CNY 596.9 billion, reflecting a 5.4% increase year-on-year and a 14.8% increase quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 17.8% [34][36] - The report indicates that while oil prices rose, the downstream refining product margins decreased, particularly in the polyester sector due to seasonal demand fluctuations [35][34] Price Trends and Margins - The report details various price trends, including the average price of Brent crude at $68.2 per barrel and the average price differences for key petrochemical products [16][18] - Specific price differences such as the ethylene-ethylene price difference at $605 per ton and the propylene-propane price difference at CNY 1,464 per ton were noted, with some margins expanding while others contracted [15][18] - The report emphasizes the concentration of profits in the polyester industry, with the PTA segment under pressure [15][34] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wan Kai New Materials, as well as large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [6][34] - It also suggests that the oil price is expected to maintain a mid-to-high level with limited downside potential, recommending companies with high dividend yields like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil [6][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Tongkun, and Daotong Technology [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in sulfur, sulfuric acid, and lithium battery electrolyte, suggesting a focus on import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend opportunities [6][19]. - The chemical industry is currently experiencing a weak overall performance, with mixed results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [22]. - The report emphasizes the potential for the glyphosate industry to enter a recovery phase, recommending companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [8][22]. - It suggests focusing on companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additive sector and coal-to-olefins industry [22]. - The report also notes the impact of international oil price fluctuations on the chemical sector, with a recommendation to pay attention to companies benefiting from lower raw material costs due to declining oil prices [20][22]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report suggests monitoring the glyphosate industry for potential recovery, with a focus on companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [8][22]. - It highlights the importance of selecting stocks with good competitive dynamics and profitability, particularly in the lubricant additive and coal-to-olefins sectors [22]. Price Trends of Chemical Products - Significant price increases were noted for sulfur (10.77%), lithium battery electrolyte (10.53%), and sulfuric acid (9.09%) [19]. - Conversely, products like R22 saw a drastic price drop of 60.49%, indicating volatility in the market [19]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the influence of geopolitical events, such as US sanctions on Russia, on international oil prices, which are expected to remain around $65 per barrel [20][24]. - It also mentions the mixed performance of the chemical industry due to varying demand across different sectors, with some areas like lubricants performing better than others [22].