Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call discusses the performance and outlook of a company in the textile and apparel industry, particularly focusing on its financial results and market dynamics for 2024 and 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **2024 Financial Expectations**: The company anticipates a profit margin of 11.21% for 2024, with a significant improvement compared to the previous year, projecting a profit of approximately 3 billion in Q4, with core business profits around 700 million after excluding certain contributions [1][2]. 2. **Q4 Performance**: In Q4, the company reported a loss of over 200 million in the PGS segment, while other segments like Changsi and MEC achieved positive operational results [2][3]. 3. **2025 Outlook**: The company started 2025 positively, exceeding internal expectations in production and sales rates despite a week-long sales halt during the Chinese New Year [2][3]. 4. **Industry Demand Trends**: The demand in the textile industry is expected to maintain a low single-digit growth rate annually, driven by stable consumer needs in the livelihood sector [4][5]. 5. **Impact of Tariffs**: The introduction of a 10% tariff on all products from China by the U.S. is acknowledged, but the company believes the overall demand will remain stable, with potential shifts in supply chains to other regions [4][6]. 6. **Export Growth**: The company noted a resurgence in export growth starting from Q4 2020, with expectations for significant growth in 2025 compared to 2024, despite a high base effect from 2023 [7][8]. 7. **Inventory Management**: Concerns were raised about high inventory levels in the domestic fabric and apparel sectors, which could impact pricing strategies and acceptance of price increases [8][9]. 8. **Production Capacity and Utilization**: The company plans to manage production capacity carefully, with expectations that the overall industry will not see significant growth in production rates in 2024, but will maintain a high utilization rate [10][11]. 9. **Collaborative Pricing Strategies**: The company is exploring a unified pricing strategy to enhance market stability, although past attempts faced challenges due to rapid changes in downstream demand and inventory devaluation [12][13]. 10. **Long-term Industry Dynamics**: The industry is perceived to be at a low growth phase, with larger companies gaining more competitive advantages as the market matures [15][16]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The company is cautious about future capital expenditures, indicating a low investment phase unless significant projects materialize [28][29]. - The management emphasized the importance of maintaining a balance between production and inventory levels to avoid market disruptions [9][10]. - The company is committed to meeting dividend expectations based on operational performance, with potential increases if profitability improves significantly [29]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and discussions from the conference call, highlighting the company's financial outlook, industry trends, and strategic considerations moving forward.

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233.SH) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the supply-demand inflection point has been reached, with inventory at a bottom level, indicating potential for profit elasticity in the upcoming peak seasons [4][6] - The long-term supply-demand landscape is expected to improve, with a significant slowdown in the growth rate of supply capacity, leading to increased industry concentration [6][51] - Tongkun maintains its leading position in the polyester filament market, with plans for extensive growth in refining operations [5][90] Summary by Sections 1. Steady Expansion in Core Business - Tongkun has evolved from a local chemical fiber factory established in 1981 to a leading global player in the chemical fiber industry, achieving significant growth in production capacity and revenue [14][15] - The company has expanded its polyester filament capacity from 4 million tons in 2015 to 13.5 million tons in 2023, with a CAGR of 16.4% [6][27] 2. Inventory at Bottom Level, Positive Long-term Supply-Demand Outlook - As of January 17, 2024, the inventory levels for POY, DTY, and FDY are at 5.8, 17.3, and 12.6 days respectively, indicating a significant reduction and positioning at historical low levels [6][38] - The supply growth rate for polyester filament is projected to decline from 7.1% (2017-2023) to 1.5% (2024-2026), enhancing the industry's long-term profitability [6][51] - Demand for polyester filament is expected to benefit from both domestic consumption and strong export performance, with a projected supply-demand gap of 230,000 tons in 2024 [6][89] 3. Leading Market Share in Polyester Filament, Broad Growth in Refining Layout - Tongkun holds the largest market share in polyester filament production in China, with a focus on upstream refining to secure core raw material supply [90][92] - The company has invested in Zhejiang Petrochemical, holding a 20% stake, which has contributed significantly to its cash flow and investment returns [90][92] - The Indonesian refining project is expected to enhance Tongkun's overall economic benefits and market competitiveness, with projected annual revenues of $7.402 billion upon completion [92][93] 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for Tongkun to be 1.215 billion, 1.805 billion, and 2.421 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 52.5%, 48.5%, and 34.2% [107] - The estimated EPS for the same period is projected to be 0.51, 0.75, and 1.01 yuan [107] - The report indicates that Tongkun is undervalued compared to its peers, with a lower PE ratio forecasted for the coming years [107][109]

Financial Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 to be between CNY 112 million and CNY 127 million, representing an increase of CNY 32.3 million to CNY 47.3 million, or a growth rate of 40.52% to 59.34% compared to the previous year[3]. - The projected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is estimated to be between CNY 85 million and CNY 100 million, an increase of CNY 39.5 million to CNY 54.5 million, reflecting a growth rate of 86.87% to 119.85% year-over-year[3]. - The expected net profit after excluding investment income from joint ventures and associates is forecasted to be between CNY 45 million and CNY 60 million, with a change of CNY -7.5 million to CNY 7.5 million, indicating a fluctuation range of -14.21% to 14.38% compared to the previous year[3]. - The net profit for the previous year (2023) attributable to shareholders was CNY 79.7 million, with a net profit of CNY 45.5 million after deducting non-recurring gains and losses[7]. Factors Influencing Profit - The main reasons for the profit increase include improved supply-demand dynamics in the polyester filament industry and enhanced profitability of chemical products from the company's investment in Zhejiang Petrochemical[8]. - The company received significant non-operating gains, including government subsidies, which had a substantial impact on net profit during the reporting period[8]. - The company emphasizes that the profit from Zhejiang Petrochemical is a major source of investment income from joint ventures and associates, and the related operating data is currently unaudited, posing a significant uncertainty for the accuracy of the profit forecast[10]. - The company notes that the accounting treatment did not have a significant impact on the profit increase for the reporting period[8]. Caution and Uncertainties - The company warns that the forecast data is preliminary and the final audited financial data will be disclosed in the 2024 annual report[11]. - Investors are advised to be cautious of investment risks related to the uncertainties in the operating data of Zhejiang Petrochemical[11].

中国北京市朝阳区建国路 77 号华贸中心 3 号写字楼 34 层 邮政编码 100025 电话: (86-10) 5809-1000 传真: (86-10) 5809-1100 北京市竞天公诚律师事务所 关于桐昆集团股份有限公司 回购注销 2023 年限制性股票激励计划部分激励对象已获授但尚 未解除限售的限制性股票的法律意见书 致：桐昆集团股份有限公司 北京市竞天公诚律师事务所（以下称"本所"）接受桐昆集团股份有限公司（以 下称"公司"或"桐昆股份"）的委托，根据《中华人民共和国公司法》（以下称"《公 司法》"）、《中华人民共和国证券法》（以下称"《证券法》"）、《上市公司 股权激励管理办法（2018 年修订）》（以下称"《管理办法》"）等有关法律、 法规和规范性文件及《桐昆集团股份有限公司章程》（以下称"《公司章程》"）、 《桐昆集团股份有限公司 2023 年限制性股票激励计划（草案）》（以下称"《激 励计划（草案）》"）的规定，就公司回购注销部分激励对象已获授但尚未解除 限售的限制性股票（以下称"本次回购注销部分限制性股票"）事宜出具本法律 意见书。 为出具本法律意见书之目的，本所律师对公司提供的、本所律 ...

回购注销原因：经桐昆集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司" 或"桐昆股份"）第九届董事会第十四次会议、第九届监事会第十一 次会议和 2024 年第三次临时股东大会审议通过，鉴于公司 2023 年限 制性股票激励计划（以下简称"本激励计划"）激励对象中有 10 人 因个人原因主动离职、1 人因退休已离职不再符合激励对象条件，同 时第一个解除限售期公司层面业绩考核未达标、不满足当期限制性股 票解除限售条件，根据《上市公司股权激励管理办法》（以下简称"《管 理办法》"）及公司《2023 年限制性股票激励计划（草案）》（以 下简称"《激励计划》"）的有关规定，公司拟对上述激励对象已获 授但尚未解除限售的共计 6,339,720 股限制性股票进行回购注销。 本次注销股份的有关情况： 股票代码：601233 股票简称：桐昆股份 公告编号：2025-003 桐昆集团股份有限公司关于 2023年限制性股票激励计划部分限制性股票 回购注销实施公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证本公告不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性、完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： | 回购股份数量（股） | 注销股份数量（股 ...

股票代码：601233 股票简称：桐昆股份 公告编号：2025-002 桐昆集团股份有限公司 关于 2024 年第六期超短期融资券到期兑付的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 2024 年 4 月 17 日，桐昆集团股份有限公司（以下简称"桐昆股 份"或"本公司"）在全国银行间市场发行了 2024 年第六期超短期 融资券（科创票据）（简称：24 桐昆 SCP006（科创票据）），发行 总额为 5 亿元人民币，期限 270 天，发行利率为 2.23%，到期一次还 本付息。募集资金已于 2024 年 4 月 18 日全额到账。 现本公司 2024 年第六期超短期融资券已于 2025 年 1 月 13 日到 期，本公司于 2025 年 1 月 13 日兑付完成该期超短期融资券本息，本 息兑付总额为人民币 508,247,945.21 元。 特此公告。 桐昆集团股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 1 月 14 日 ...

股票代码：601233 股票简称：桐昆股份 公告编号：2025-001 桐昆集团股份有限公司关于 2025年度第一期超短期融资券发行结果的公告 本公司董事会及董事会全体成员保证公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性 陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实、准确和完整承担法律责任。 | 发行利率 | 1.95% | 发行价格 | 100 | | 元/百元面值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申购情况 | | | | | | | 合规申购家数 | 7 家 | 合规申购金额 | | 3.7 | 亿元 | | 最高申购价位 | 1.95% | 最低申购价位 | | | 1.6% | | 有效申购家数 | 7 家 | 有效申购金额 | | 3.7 | 亿元 | | 薄记管理人 | | 兴业银行股份有限公司 | | | | | 主承销商 | | 兴业银行股份有限公司 | | | | | 联席主承销商 | | 杭州银行股份有限公司 | | | | 本 期 发 行 超 短 期 融 资 券 的 相 关 文 件 已 在 中 国 货 币 网 (www.chinamoney.com.cn) ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 13.20 [7][47]. Core Views - The polyester industry is currently experiencing weak demand, with a slow recovery in both domestic and international textile and apparel markets. The overall industry chain remains in a downturn, with production capacity continuing to expand and operating rates declining [1][46]. - Tongkun Co., Ltd. is recognized as the world's largest producer of polyester filament yarn, with significant production capacities in PTA, polymerization, and polyester filament yarn. The company's integrated advantages are expected to continue to strengthen as the peak production period in the industry comes to an end and outdated capacities are gradually eliminated [2][47]. - The report forecasts a recovery in the industry chain's supply-demand dynamics, which is anticipated to benefit the company as an industry leader [1][2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tongkun Co., Ltd. has a production capacity of 10.2 million tons/year for PTA, 13 million tons/year for polymerization, and 13.5 million tons/year for polyester filament yarn. The company is extending its reach into upstream and downstream sectors, enhancing its integrated advantages [2]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2022: RMB 61,993 million - 2023: RMB 82,640 million (up 33.30%) - 2024E: RMB 93,713 million (up 13.40%) - 2025E: RMB 99,085 million (up 5.73%) - 2026E: RMB 103,671 million (up 4.63%) [3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to recover significantly from RMB 130.21 million in 2022 to RMB 2,836 million in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 75.22% from 2023 to 2024 [3][47]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides the following valuation metrics: - EPS (latest diluted): RMB 0.05 in 2022, increasing to RMB 1.18 in 2026 - PE ratio: 217.95 in 2022, decreasing to 10.01 in 2026 - PB ratio: 0.82 in 2022, decreasing to 0.68 in 2026 - EV/EBITDA: 20.25 in 2022, decreasing to 5.58 in 2026 [3][47].

股票代码：601233 股票简称：桐昆股份 公告编号：2024-086 特此公告。 桐昆集团股份有限公司 桐昆集团股份有限公司董事会 关于 2024 年第七期超短期融资券到期兑付的公告 2024 年 12 月 28 日 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 2024 年 4 月 23 日，桐昆集团股份有限公司（以下简称"桐昆股 份"或"本公司"）在全国银行间市场发行了 2024 年第七期超短期 融资券（科创票据）（简称：24 桐昆 SCP007（科创票据）），发行 总额为 5 亿元人民币，期限 247 天，发行利率为 2.20%，到期一次还 本付息。募集资金已于 2024 年 4 月 24 日全额到账。 现本公司 2024 年第七期超短期融资券已于 2024 年 12 月 27 日到 期，本公司于 2024 年 12 月 27 日兑付完成该期超短期融资券本息， 本息兑付总额为人民币 507,443,835.62 元。 ...

股票代码：601233 股票简称：桐昆股份 公告编号：2024-087 桐昆集团股份有限公司 公司对浙石化的长期股权投资按权益法核算，收到该笔现金分红 款将有助于改善公司现金流，对 2024 年度合并报表净利润无影响。 特此公告。 桐昆集团股份有限公司董事会 2024 年 12 月 28 日 关于收到浙江石油化工有限公司现金分红款的公告 本公司董事会及董事会全体成员保证公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性 陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实、准确和完整承担法律责任。 浙江石油化工有限公司（以下简称"浙石化"）系桐昆集团股份 有限公司（以下简称"公司"）的全资子公司浙江桐昆投资有限责任 公司（以下简称"桐昆投资"）的参股公司，桐昆投资持有浙石化 20%的股权。根据浙石化作出的关于利润分配的股东会决议，桐昆投 资将获得现金分红 10 亿元。截至 2024 年 12 月 27 日，桐昆投资已收 到浙石化现金分红款 10 亿元。 1 ...