Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the chemical industry, highlighting the potential benefits from the "dual carbon" policy implementation [5]. Core Insights - The "dual carbon" policy is expected to significantly impact the chemical industry, with a focus on carbon emissions control becoming a rigid constraint during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6][14]. - The report identifies that the attention towards "dual carbon" from provincial leaders has increased by 137% since September 2025, indicating a shift in focus towards carbon emissions as a critical performance metric [7][18]. - The chemical industry is anticipated to undergo structural changes, with high carbon intensity sectors facing supply constraints, while low-carbon leaders are expected to benefit from the transition [8][30]. Summary by Sections 1. "14th Five-Year Plan": Carbon Peak Closing Battle - Local carbon assessments may treat carbon emissions as an equally important rigid constraint [15]. - High carbon intensity sectors such as ammonia fertilizer, coal chemical, and chlorine-alkali are likely to face capacity constraints first [29][30]. 2. Petrochemical "Dual Carbon" Opportunities - The petrochemical sector is expected to undergo a transformation driven by the "dual carbon" goals, with a focus on optimizing supply and demand structures [38]. - Refining sector dynamics are shifting towards improved supply-demand balance due to stringent approval processes for new projects and the elimination of high-energy-consuming capacities [38]. 3. Basic Chemical "Dual Carbon" Opportunities - Coal chemical industry is projected to stabilize supply under carbon limits, driving quality improvements in the sector [3.1]. - Carbon fiber and fluorochemical sectors are expected to benefit from process optimization and green transitions [3.2][3.3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of leading companies: 1. Integrated leaders in the oil chemical sector with scale and efficiency advantages [8]. 2. Coal chemical leaders with advanced processes and low emissions [8]. 3. High-quality firms in fluorochemical and carbon fiber sectors that align with "dual carbon" goals [8].

Group 1: Industry Performance - The chemical industry index increased by 37.80% in 2025, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 by 17.44 and 16.05 percentage points, respectively[12] - The revenue of the chemical industry reached 17,133 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.61%[15] - The net profit for the same period was 1,098 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.36%[15] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Policy Impact - Capital expenditure in the basic chemical sector was 1597.25 billion yuan in Q3 2025, down 8.07% year-on-year[15] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to a recovery in industry conditions, with the capacity utilization rate for polyester filament reaching 90.86%, a historically high level[44] - The government has implemented measures to regulate market competition, leading to a significant increase in industry concentration, with the top 10 companies in the civil explosives sector holding a market share of 62.5% in 2024[56] Group 3: Sector-Specific Developments - The demand for humanoid robots has driven the rise of the specialty plastics industry, with PEEK materials becoming a core beneficiary, valued at approximately 1,367 to 4,102 yuan per robot[7] - The civil explosives industry is benefiting from the dual drivers of western development and overseas expansion, with significant projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project stimulating demand[57] - The coal industry remains a critical component of the energy system, with coal production reaching a historical peak of 4.78 billion tons in 2024, directly boosting demand for civil explosive products[59]

Group 1 - The refining and trading sector increased by 1.02% on January 30, with Bohui Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95, down 0.96%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14205.89, down 0.66% [1] - Key stocks in the refining and trading sector showed various performance, with Bohui Co., Ltd. closing at 12.20, up 4.01% [1] Group 2 - Major stocks that declined included Heshun Petroleum, which fell by 8.41% to 36.14, and Taishan Petroleum, down 5.26% to 8.46 [2] - The refining and trading sector experienced a net outflow of 39.53 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 22.07 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for major stocks varied, with China Petroleum having a significant trading volume of 421.39 million shares [1][2] Group 3 - China Petroleum had a net inflow of 301 million yuan from main funds, while China Sinopec saw a net inflow of 65.69 million yuan [3] - Retail investors showed a net inflow of 809.96 million yuan into Bohui Co., Ltd., despite a significant outflow from main funds [3] - The overall sentiment in the refining and trading sector reflects mixed investor behavior, with some stocks attracting retail interest while facing main fund outflows [3]

Summary of Conference Call on Chemical and Building Materials Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the chemical and building materials industry, emphasizing the investment opportunities in midstream leading companies despite market adjustments [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Investment Strategy**: The company remains committed to recommending core midstream leading stocks, especially in the chemical sector, as they believe these stocks will perform well even during market adjustments [1]. 2. **Price Trends**: Some chemical products are experiencing price increases, but the current market is more about capital allocation rather than a price-driven rally [2]. 3. **Global Demand**: The demand for chemicals is increasingly global and diversified, making it a more stable investment compared to real estate, which has uncertain demand [2]. 4. **Supply Dynamics**: There has been a significant exit of overseas production capacity, particularly in Europe due to high energy prices and increased labor costs, which has strengthened domestic companies' confidence [2]. 5. **Capital Expenditure Trends**: Domestic capital expenditure in the basic chemical sector is expected to decline by approximately 16% year-on-year in 2024, with a smaller decline of 5-6% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a downward trend [3]. 6. **Government Policies**: The government's focus on "anti-involution" reflects an awareness of low product prices, which may lead to adjustments in operating rates to balance supply and demand [3][4]. 7. **Carbon Neutrality Initiatives**: The upcoming carbon neutrality policies will significantly impact the chemical industry, with expectations for peak carbon emissions by 2030, which will drive changes in production practices [5]. 8. **Market Recovery**: The chemical market is expected to recover as supply contracts and demand stabilizes, with a focus on leading companies that dominate domestic production [6][7]. 9. **Stock Recommendations**: Specific companies such as Wanhua, Hualu, and others in the polyester and organic silicon sectors are highlighted for their potential growth in production capacity and profitability [8][9]. 10. **Profitability Projections**: The profitability of leading companies is projected to improve significantly, with expectations that earnings could return to historical midpoints, even if product prices do not reach previous highs [10][11]. 11. **Valuation Metrics**: Current valuations for leading companies are considered attractive, with expected price-to-earnings ratios around 15-17 times under neutral performance expectations [28]. Additional Important Insights - **Sector Performance**: The chemical sector has underperformed for several years, contrasting with the metals sector, which has seen price increases [6]. - **Investment Timing**: The timing of investments in leading companies is crucial, as they are expected to benefit from market recovery and improved pricing power [27]. - **Emerging Opportunities**: There are emerging opportunities in agricultural chemicals, particularly in phosphate and potash sectors, which are expected to see volume growth despite price stability [13][31]. - **Regulatory Changes**: Recent regulatory changes regarding PVC production may lead to increased capital expenditures and potential industry consolidation, optimizing supply-demand dynamics [14]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the chemical and building materials industry.

Group 1: Company Announcements - Meinian Health plans to participate in the restructuring of Zhejiang Bangjie Holdings, aiming to become the controlling shareholder post-restructuring [1] - Silver Industry's gold and silver product revenues are low, with gold sales contributing 18.67% and silver 4.54% to total revenue in H1 2025 [2] - Tianneng Wind Power has decided to implement long-term production halts for six wholly-owned subsidiaries to optimize resource allocation and focus on core offshore wind power business [3] Group 2: Price and Supply Risks - Tongling Nonferrous Metals reports significant uncertainty in the prices of cathode copper and other main products, with low self-sufficiency in copper concentrate posing supply stability risks [4] - ST Aowei received a notice of termination of listing due to market capitalization falling below 500 million yuan for 20 consecutive trading days [5][6] Group 3: Performance Forecasts - Foton Motor expects a net profit increase of approximately 1551% to around 1.33 billion yuan in 2025, driven by sales growth across various segments [7] - Beimo High-Tech anticipates a net profit of 190 million to 220 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 1076.16% to 1261.87% [8] - Zhongke Sanhuan forecasts a net profit increase of 566.23% to 899.35%, driven by cost control and market expansion [9] - Wancheng Group expects a net profit of 1.23 billion to 1.4 billion yuan, a growth of 222.38% to 266.94% [10] - Wan Yi Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 191.52% to 330.34%, supported by product optimization and cost reduction measures [11] - Nanmo Biology expects a net profit of 24 million to 34 million yuan, a growth of 269.49% to 423.44% [12] - Bai'ao Saitou forecasts a net profit increase of 384.26% to 443.88%, benefiting from overseas market expansion [13] - Hailanxin anticipates a net profit of 40 million to 60 million yuan, a growth of 387.47% to 631.2% [14] - Panzhihua Coal expects a net profit of 318 million to 380 million yuan, a growth of 205.3% to 264.83% [15] - Huaguang New Materials forecasts a net profit increase of 104.67% to 141.88% [16] - Putian Technology expects a net profit of 1.92 million to 2.88 million yuan, a growth of 71.55% to 157.33% [17] - Guoda Special Materials anticipates a net profit increase of 82.61% [18] - Tongkun Co. expects a net profit of 1.95 billion to 2.15 billion yuan, a growth of 62.24% to 78.88% [19] - Yiming Pharmaceutical forecasts a net profit increase of 61.12% to 122.08% [20] - Guosheng Securities expects a net profit of 210 million to 280 million yuan, a growth of 25.44% to 67.25% [21] - Shengyi Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 87% to 98% [22] Group 4: Loss Forecasts - Saifutian expects a loss of 30 million to 45 million yuan, significantly reducing previous losses [23] - Magang Group forecasts a loss of 190 million to 250 million yuan, a substantial reduction in losses [24] - Shennong Seed Industry anticipates a profit of 90 million to 120 million yuan, reversing previous losses [25] - Jifeng Co. expects a profit of 410 million to 495 million yuan, reversing previous losses [26] - Bingchuan Network forecasts a profit of 436 million to 516 million yuan, reversing previous losses [27] - Zhongyou Technology anticipates a profit of 540 million to 640 million yuan, reversing previous losses [28] - Dongfang Biology expects a loss of 523 million yuan [29] - Wantai Biological anticipates a loss of 330 million to 410 million yuan due to market pressures [30] - Anbotong expects a loss of 114 million to 165 million yuan [31] - Shunxin Agriculture forecasts a loss of 116 million to 188 million yuan due to declining sales [32] - Guozhong Water expects a loss of 130 million to 104 million yuan, with potential delisting risks [33] Group 5: Major Contracts - China Communication Signal expects to win 21 major projects worth approximately 5.26 billion yuan [34]

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company between 1.95 billion yuan and 2.15 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, representing an increase of 748.0964 million yuan to 948.0964 million yuan compared to the previous year, which corresponds to a growth rate of 62.24% to 78.88% [2] Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2025 is estimated to be between 1.95 billion yuan and 2.15 billion yuan [2] - This represents an increase of 748.0964 million yuan to 948.0964 million yuan compared to the previous year's performance [2] - The anticipated growth rate is between 62.24% and 78.88% year-on-year [2]

Group 1 - Meinian Health plans to participate in the restructuring of Zhejiang Bangjie Holdings, aiming to become the controlling shareholder after the completion of the restructuring [3] - Baiyin Nonferrous Metals reported that the revenue from gold and silver products accounted for a low proportion of total operating income, with gold sales contributing 18.67% and silver sales 4.54% in the first half of 2025 [4] - Tiens Wind Power decided to implement a long-term production suspension for six wholly-owned subsidiaries to optimize resource allocation and focus on core businesses [5] Group 2 - Tongling Nonferrous Metals indicated significant uncertainty in the price fluctuations of its main products, with a low self-sufficiency rate for copper concentrate posing supply stability risks [6] - *ST Aowei received a notice of termination of listing due to its market capitalization falling below 500 million yuan for twenty consecutive trading days [7] - Foton Motor expects a net profit increase of approximately 1551% year-on-year for 2025, driven by sales growth in new energy vehicles and overseas markets [9] Group 3 - Beimo High-tech anticipates a net profit increase of 1076.16% to 1261.87% for 2025, supported by cost control and reduced credit impairment losses [10] - Zhongke Sanhuan forecasts a net profit growth of 566.23% to 899.35% for 2025, attributed to technological innovation and improved operational efficiency [12] - Wancheng Group expects a net profit increase of 222.38% to 266.94% for 2025, driven by growth in its retail business and improved sales margins [13] Group 4 - Huayi Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 191.52% to 330.34% for 2025, benefiting from product optimization and cost reduction measures [14] - Nanmo Biology expects a net profit growth of 269.49% to 423.44% for 2025, supported by increased revenue in the biopharmaceutical sector and improved cost control [15] - Baiao Saitu forecasts a net profit increase of 384.26% to 443.88% for 2025, driven by expansion in overseas markets and recovery in the domestic biopharmaceutical industry [16] Group 5 - Hailanxin expects a net profit increase of 387.47% to 631.2% for 2025, supported by advancements in technology and increased market share in marine observation [17] - Panjiang Co. anticipates a net profit growth of 205.3% to 264.83% for 2025, driven by increased coal production and reduced costs [18] - Huaguang New Materials expects a net profit increase of 104.67% to 141.88% for 2025, with significant growth in the electronic sector [20] Group 6 - Guo Sheng Securities forecasts a net profit increase of 25.44% to 67.25% for 2025, supported by active capital market participation and growth in various business segments [25] - Shengyi Technology expects a net profit growth of 87% to 98% for 2025, driven by increased sales of copper-clad laminates [26] - Sifutian anticipates a net loss of 30 million to 45 million yuan for 2025, although this represents a significant reduction in losses compared to the previous year [27] Group 7 - Maanshan Steel expects a net loss of 1.9 billion to 2.5 billion yuan for 2025, with a substantial reduction in losses compared to the previous year [28] - Shennong Seed Industry forecasts a net profit of 90 million to 120 million yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround from previous losses [30] - Jifeng Co. anticipates a net profit of 410 million to 495 million yuan for 2025, achieving a turnaround from losses [31]

桐昆股份（601233）(601233.SH)发布2025年年度业绩预增公告，预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股 东的净利润19.5亿元至21.5亿元，与上年同期相比增加74,809.64万元至94,809.64万元，增幅62.24%至 78.88%。 2025年国内政策精准发力，直接推动涤纶长丝行业产能投放收缩，行业供需格局优化带动单吨盈利水平 显著抬升。尽管上游PTA环节亏损规模较上年进一步扩大，对产业链利润形成一定侵蚀，但在此背景 下，公司主业依然凭借长丝业务的盈利增长实现了经营利润的显著改善;另一方面公司参股的浙石化依 托全球特大型炼化一体化装置，持续优化装置性能，不断挖潜增效，化工产品线不断延伸，品种日益丰 富，部分化工产品毛利有改善。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233.SH) expects a significant increase in net profit for the year 2025, projecting a range of 1.95 billion to 2.15 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 748.1 million to 948.1 million yuan, with a growth rate of 62.24% to 78.88% [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company anticipates a notable improvement in operating profit driven by the growth in its filament business, despite the expanded losses in the upstream PTA segment [1] - The projected net profit for 2025 indicates a strong recovery and growth trajectory for the company, reflecting effective management and operational strategies [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The polyester filament industry is experiencing a contraction in capacity due to targeted domestic policies, leading to an optimized supply-demand balance and a significant increase in profit per ton [1] - The company’s stake in Zhejiang Petrochemical is contributing positively, as the facility continues to enhance performance and expand its chemical product line, resulting in improved margins for certain chemical products [1]

Earnings Forecasts - Shengyi Electronics expects a net profit of 1.431 billion to 1.513 billion yuan in 2025, an increase of 331.03% to 355.88% year-on-year [1] - Tigermed anticipates a net profit of 830 million to 1.23 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 105% to 204% year-on-year [2] - Shunbo Alloy forecasts a net profit of 210 million to 270 million yuan in 2025, with an increase of 222.96% to 315.23% year-on-year [3] - Jinkong Electric expects a net profit of 155 million to 195 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 383.21% to 507.9% year-on-year [9] - Baiao Saitu anticipates a net profit of 162 million to 182 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 384.26% to 443.88% [18] - Panjiang Co. expects a net profit of 318 million to 380 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 205.30% to 264.83% year-on-year [38] Loss Forecasts - Liaoning Energy predicts a net loss of 273 million to 410 million yuan in 2025, compared to a profit of 202 million yuan in the previous year [5] - Anbotong anticipates a net loss of 114 million to 165 million yuan in 2025, with a revenue decrease of 19.65% to 27.25% [7] - Wantai Bio forecasts a net loss of 330 million to 410 million yuan in 2025, compared to a profit of 106 million yuan in the previous year [12] - Xingyun Co. expects a net loss of 155 million to 230 million yuan in 2025, compared to a loss of 82.44 million yuan in the previous year [20] - Huaxing Co. anticipates a net loss of 800 million to 1.2 billion yuan in 2025, with a reduction in loss compared to 1.67 billion yuan in the previous year [46] New Product Approvals - Hengrui Medicine received acceptance for a new indication application for its innovative drug, combining Carrelizumab and Apatinib for treating unresectable liver cancer [4] - Tianen Kang's subsidiary received a drug registration acceptance notice for Lidocaine and Prilocaine aerosol [31] - Lisheng Pharmaceutical announced that its Aminophylline tablets passed the consistency evaluation for generic drugs [40] Share Buyback Plans - Hengyuan Coal Power plans to repurchase shares with a total amount not less than 200 million yuan and not exceeding 250 million yuan [13] Contract Wins - China Communication Signal Co. won contracts totaling approximately 5.26 billion yuan for 21 important projects in the railway and urban rail transit markets [37]