Market Overview - The refining and trading sector increased by 1.02% on November 6, with Wanbangda leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4007.76, up 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13452.42, up 1.73% [1] Stock Performance - Wanbangda (300055) closed at 8.57, rising by 10.01% with a trading volume of 721,500 shares and a transaction value of 603 million yuan [1] - Unified Shares (600506) also rose by 10.01% to 28.58, with a trading volume of 433,400 shares and a transaction value of 1.164 billion yuan [1] - Other notable performers included Tongkun Co. (601233) up 6.18% to 14.78, Hengli Petrochemical (600346) up 6.01% to 18.52, and Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) up 4.46% to 10.31 [1] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector saw a net inflow of 337 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 249 million yuan [2] - The main funds showed significant inflows in stocks like Guanghui Energy (600256) and Unified Shares (600506), while retail investors withdrew from several stocks including Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) and Hengli Petrochemical (600346) [3]

Group 1 - The chemical fiber sector experienced a rise in the afternoon, with Xin Fengming hitting the daily limit up [1] - Tongkun Co., Ltd. increased by over 6%, indicating strong market performance [1] - Other companies such as Zhongfu Shenying, Nanjing Chemical Fiber, and Huafeng Chemical also saw gains [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. has shown a mixed performance in stock price and financial results, with a notable increase in net profit despite a decline in revenue [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of September 30, 2025, Tongkun Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 67.397 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.38% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.549 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 53.83% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 3.203 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 341 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - On November 6, 2023, the stock price of Tongkun Co., Ltd. increased by 2.01%, reaching 14.20 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 34.148 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has experienced a year-to-date increase of 21.36%, but has seen a decline of 1.53% over the last five trading days and 3.14% over the last twenty days [1]. - The company had a net inflow of main funds amounting to 510,300 yuan, with large orders accounting for 11.73% of total purchases [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 28.96% to 50,100, while the average number of tradable shares per shareholder increased by 40.76% to 47,780 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 35.9221 million shares, an increase of 9.4667 million shares from the previous period [3]. - New entrant Penghua CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme ETF holds 25.2748 million shares, while Southern CSI 500 ETF reduced its holdings by 482,300 shares [3].

Core Insights - The refining and trading sector experienced a decline of 0.41% on November 5, with Tongkun Co., Ltd. leading the losses [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3969.25, up 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13223.56, up 0.37% [1] Sector Performance - Notable gainers in the refining and trading sector included: - Maoyang Xichang: Closed at 18.60, up 4.09% with a trading volume of 154,400 shares and a turnover of 285 million yuan - Baomo Co., Ltd.: Closed at 6.02, up 3.44% with a trading volume of 262,300 shares and a turnover of 157 million yuan - Heshun Petroleum: Closed at 22.65, up 3.19% with a trading volume of 59,300 shares and a turnover of 134 million yuan [1] - Major decliners included: - Tongjing Co., Ltd.: Closed at 13.92, down 1.42% with a trading volume of 160,800 shares and a turnover of 226 million yuan - Rongsheng Petrochemical: Closed at 9.87, down 1.40% with a trading volume of 232,900 shares and a turnover of 231 million yuan - Hengyi Petrochemical: Closed at 6.50, down 1.07% with a trading volume of 155,200 shares and a turnover of 101 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector saw a net outflow of 234 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 220 million yuan [2] - Specific stock capital flows indicated: - Maoyang Xichang: Major funds net outflow of 31.4 million yuan, retail net outflow of 17.5 million yuan - Heshun Petroleum: Major funds net inflow of 11.1 million yuan, retail net outflow of 9.1 million yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance and potential dual improvement in performance and valuation [6] - The basic chemical sector has shown revenue and profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with significant profitability in sub-sectors like fluorochemicals and agricultural chemicals [4][6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, the basic chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 7.46%, while the petroleum and petrochemical industry index underperformed by 21.06% [14] - The basic chemical industry achieved a revenue of CNY 17,645.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, and a net profit of CNY 1,097.5 billion, up 6.3% [4][35] Basic Chemicals - The basic chemical sector's net profit growth rate exceeded revenue growth, with capital expenditures continuing to decline year-on-year [4][36] - In Q3 2025, the sector's revenue was CNY 6,051.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while net profit reached CNY 366.4 billion, up 16.8% [4][35] Sub-sector Analysis - In the first three quarters of 2025, sub-sectors such as pesticides, adhesives, fluorochemicals, and potassium fertilizers saw significant year-on-year net profit growth [4][37] - The top ten sub-sectors by net profit growth included pesticides (174%) and fluorochemicals, with substantial increases in profitability observed [38]

Group 1 - The company reported a total revenue of 67.4 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54% [1] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 23.2 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 500 million yuan, showing significant year-on-year growth but a 7% decline from the previous quarter [1] - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to the price drop of key products such as polyester filament and PTA, with average prices for PTA and POY down approximately 13% and 10% year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 2 - The profitability of PTA improved significantly, with the PTA price spread increasing by 103 yuan/ton year-on-year, while the filament price spread remained stable [1] - The overall profitability of the filament industry is currently not ideal, with weak cost support for PTA and sluggish downstream demand, indicating that the fundamentals have not shown clear signs of recovery [1] - Industry inventory levels are relatively low, and downstream inventory has gradually been digested during the past few years of market downturn, suggesting potential for future recovery in industry conditions [1] Group 3 - The growth rate of filament capacity is slowing, with an expected increase of approximately 2.6 million tons in 2026, representing a growth rate of 6%, while actual production this year may be less than 1.2 million tons, with a growth rate of less than 3% [2] - The PTA industry has been in a prolonged downturn, and a recent meeting was held to prevent excessive competition within the PTA and bottle-grade polyester chip industries, aiming for stable industry operations [2] - The overall capital expenditure in the PTA industry is nearing its end, with limited capacity increases expected in 2026-2027, which may lead to better cost support and a potential recovery in the industry chain [2] Group 4 - The company’s profit forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 2 billion, 3 billion, and 4.2 billion yuan, respectively, considering the fourth quarter is typically a low season for the filament industry and the current weakening of the PTA price spread [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The demand for polyester filament is weak in Q3, but there is optimism for profit recovery due to the "anti-involution" policy [2][3] - The company reported a revenue of 67.397 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 53.83% to 1.549 billion yuan [1][2] - The company expects a significant improvement in the supply-demand dynamics for polyester filament and PTA as older production capacities exit the market [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 23.239 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.51% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.06%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.452 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 872.09% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.88% [1][2] - The gross margin for Q3 was 4.01%, a year-on-year increase of 0.69 percentage points, while the net margin was 1.97%, a year-on-year increase of 1.99 percentage points [2] Market Dynamics - The retail sales of clothing and textiles in China increased by 3.1% year-on-year, while textile and apparel exports decreased by 0.33% [2] - The sales volume of polyester filament and PTA for the first three quarters decreased by 3.3% and increased by 22.9% year-on-year, respectively [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 2.09394 billion yuan, 2.98886 billion yuan, and 3.94824 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.87, 1.24, and 1.64 yuan [4] - The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 16.50 for 2025, 11.56 for 2026, and 8.75 for 2027 [4]

11月4日，桐昆股份盘中下跌2.02%，截至14:17，报14.08元/股，成交2.28亿元，换手率0.66%，总市值 338.59亿元。 截至9月30日，桐昆股份股东户数5.01万，较上期减少28.96%；人均流通股47780股，较上期增加 40.76%。2025年1月-9月，桐昆股份实现营业收入673.97亿元，同比减少11.38%；归母净利润15.49亿 元，同比增长53.83%。 分红方面，桐昆股份A股上市后累计派现32.03亿元。近三年，累计派现3.41亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，桐昆股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第五大流 通股东，持股3592.21万股，相比上期增加946.67万股。鹏华中证细分化工产业主题ETF联接A （014942）位居第八大流通股东，持股2527.48万股，为新进股东。南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第 九大流通股东，持股2450.55万股，相比上期减少48.23万股。汇丰晋信新动力混合A（000965）退出十 大流通股东之列。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出1152.67万元，特大单买入0.00元，占比0.00%， ...

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.55% on November 3, with 22 out of 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by the media and coal industries, which increased by 3.12% and 2.52% respectively [1] - The oil and petrochemical sector saw a rise of 2.28%, with a net inflow of 1.099 billion yuan in main funds, where 41 out of 47 stocks in this sector increased in value, and 2 stocks hit the daily limit [1] - The top three stocks in terms of net fund inflow in the oil and petrochemical sector were China Petroleum, with a net inflow of 295 million yuan, followed by Intercontinental Oil and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, with inflows of 255 million yuan and 156 million yuan respectively [1] Industry Summary - The oil and petrochemical sector had a total of 47 stocks, with 41 stocks rising and 5 stocks declining on the day [1] - The stocks with the highest net inflow included: - China Petroleum: +4.48% with a turnover rate of 0.14% and a main fund flow of 294.51 million yuan - Intercontinental Oil: +10.13% with a turnover rate of 12.21% and a main fund flow of 255.11 million yuan - China National Offshore Oil Corporation: +4.83% with a turnover rate of 2.71% and a main fund flow of 156.07 million yuan [1] - The stocks with the highest net outflow included: - Tongkun Co.: -1.05% with a net outflow of 46.51 million yuan - Zhun Oil Co.: +2.09% with a net outflow of 9.81 million yuan - Hengtong Co.: -0.61% with a net outflow of 9.77 million yuan [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Big Refining Weekly Report: PTA Industry Development Symposium Held, Pay Attention to the Advancement of Anti-Involution in the Chemical Industry [1] - Report Date: November 2, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Chen Shuxian, Zhou Shaowen [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the big refining industry, including the performance of key refining projects, the polyester, refining, and chemical sectors, and the market performance of related listed companies [2] Summary by Directory 1. Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Price and Spread Data**: Domestic key big refining project spread is 2,450 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton (down 4%) week-on-week; foreign key big refining project spread is 1,302 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan/ton (up 6%) week-on-week [2] - **Polyester Sector**: POY/FDY/DTY industry average prices are 6,429/6,679/7,779 yuan/ton, up 21/61/46 yuan/ton respectively; POY/FDY/DTY industry weekly average profits are -17/-116/17 yuan/ton, down 88/62/72 yuan/ton respectively; POY/FDY/DTY industry inventories are 8.5/18.3/24.5 days, down 3.3/3.6/5.0 days respectively; filament开工率 is 90.9%, down 0.1 pct; downstream loom开工率 is 69.0%, up 2.6 pct; weaving enterprise raw material inventory is 14.0 days, up 2.9 days; weaving enterprise finished product inventory is 23.0 days, down 1.1 days [2] - **Refining Sector**: Domestic refined oil: gasoline/diesel prices declined this week; US refined oil: US gasoline/diesel/aviation kerosene prices rose this week [2] - **Chemical Sector**: This week's PX average price is 820.7 US dollars/ton, up 26.3 US dollars/ton; the spread to crude oil is 344.9 US dollars/ton, up 8.2 US dollars/ton; PX开工率 is 87.1%, up 0.8 pct [2] - **Related Listed Companies**: Private big refining & polyester filament: Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd., Xin凤鸣 [2] 2. Big Refining Weekly Report 2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends - **Market Performance Comparison**: The report presents the price trends and spreads of domestic and foreign big refining projects, as well as the market performance of six private big refining companies compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, the petroleum and petrochemical index, and the Brent crude oil price [13][15][17] 2.2 Polyester Sector - **Price and Profit Analysis**: The report analyzes the prices, spreads, and profits of various polyester products, including PX, PTA, MEG, POY, FDY, DTY, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle chips, as well as their relationships with raw material prices and inventories [23][24][35] - **开工率 and Inventory Analysis**: It also examines the开工率 and inventory levels of polyester products and their downstream industries, such as looms, and analyzes the seasonal distribution of polyester filament production and sales rates [30][42][56] 2.3 Refining Sector - **Domestic Refined Oil**: The report analyzes the prices and spreads of domestic gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene compared to crude oil prices [78][80][87] - **US Refined Oil**: It also examines the prices and spreads of US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene compared to crude oil prices [92][94][101] - **European Refined Oil**: The report analyzes the prices and spreads of European gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene compared to crude oil prices [106][108][114] - **Singapore Refined Oil**: It also examines the prices and spreads of Singapore gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene compared to crude oil prices [118][120][126] 2.4 Chemical Sector - **Price and Spread Analysis**: The report analyzes the prices and spreads of various chemical products, including polyethylene, polypropylene, EVA, styrene, acrylonitrile, PC, MMA, etc., compared to crude oil prices [132][141]