Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights increasing uncertainty in oil prices due to OPEC's production increases and secondary sanctions on Russia. OPEC plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September and may consider further reductions in the future [5][6]. - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of $60 to $70 per barrel, with the overall supply-demand balance remaining loose [15]. - The upstream sector is experiencing mixed trends in drilling day rates, while the refining sector shows signs of improvement in profitability due to rising product price spreads [5][22]. - The polyester sector is anticipated to recover, with expectations of rising profitability for leading companies [16]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of August 8, 2025, Brent crude futures closed at $66.43 per barrel, down 4.65% from the previous week, while WTI futures closed at $63.88 per barrel, down 5.12% [22]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.029 million barrels to 424 million barrels, which is 6% lower than the five-year average [25]. - The number of U.S. drilling rigs decreased to 539, down 1 from the previous week and down 49 year-on-year [35]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products increased to $16.62 per barrel, up $1.14 from the previous week [58]. - The price spread for ethylene was reported at $239.72 per ton, up $16.47 from the previous week, while the propylene price spread decreased to $113.50 per ton [5][55]. Polyester Sector - The report indicates a decline in PTA profitability, with prices dropping to 4692 RMB per ton, down 3.29% week-on-week [5]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is considered average, with a focus on demand changes and expectations of gradual improvement as new capacities come online [16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading polyester companies such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec, due to favorable competitive dynamics [16][18]. - It also suggests monitoring upstream exploration and production companies, particularly offshore service firms, for potential performance improvements [18].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [127]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant drop in oil prices, leading to an expansion in the price spread of refining products. As of August 8, 2025, the Brent crude oil average price was $67.67 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 4.90% [2][12]. - Domestic key refining project price spread reached 2378.22 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 42.27 CNY/ton (+1.81%), while the international key refining project price spread was 1097.94 CNY/ton, up by 74.40 CNY/ton (+7.27%) [2][3]. - The report discusses various segments including refining, chemicals, and polyester, indicating a general trend of price declines in chemical products, although some products saw price increases due to supply constraints [2][35][72]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report notes that the market is currently weighing the impacts of tariff agreements and economic data, which have led to concerns about demand. The U.S. crude oil production reached a record high in May, contributing to oversupply expectations [2][12]. - Domestic refined oil prices are fluctuating, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation fuel averaging 7077.57 CNY/ton, 8173.43 CNY/ton, and 5972.93 CNY/ton respectively [12]. Chemical Sector - The chemical sector is experiencing widespread price declines, with some products seeing price increases due to reduced supply. For instance, the price of acrylonitrile increased slightly due to supply reductions [2][35]. - Polyethylene prices showed minor fluctuations, while the price spread significantly widened, indicating a favorable market condition for producers [41][57]. Polyester Sector - The polyester sector is facing weak cost support due to falling oil prices, leading to price declines in upstream materials like PX, PTA, and MEG. The average price of PTA is currently 4684.29 CNY/ton, with an industry average net profit of -264.65 CNY/ton [81][90]. - The report indicates that the demand for polyester products remains weak, particularly in the downstream market, which is still in a seasonal lull [90][99].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1]. Core Insights - The cost side supports the price increase of long filament yarns, with domestic and foreign refining project price differentials showing positive trends [2]. - The polyester sector shows varied performance with POY, FDY, and DTY average prices increasing, while profits remain under pressure for FDY and DTY [2]. - The refining sector indicates a decline in domestic gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel prices, reflecting broader market trends [2]. - The chemical sector shows a decrease in PX average price, but the price differential with crude oil has improved [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Refining Projects Price Differential - Domestic refining project price differential is 2548 CNY/ton, up by 186 CNY/ton (8% increase) week-on-week [2]. - Foreign refining project price differential is 1103 CNY/ton, up by 79 CNY/ton (8% increase) week-on-week [2]. 2. Polyester Sector - Average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY are 6725 CNY/ton, 7011 CNY/ton, and 7932 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week increases of 4 CNY, 25 CNY, and 25 CNY [2]. - Weekly average profits for POY, FDY, and DTY are 18 CNY/ton, -58 CNY/ton, and -44 CNY/ton respectively, with significant week-on-week profit increases for POY and FDY [2]. - Inventory levels for POY, FDY, and DTY are 19.7 days, 25.7 days, and 30.0 days respectively, with slight increases week-on-week [2]. 3. Refining Sector - Domestic gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel prices have decreased, reflecting a broader trend in the market [2]. - The average price of gasoline in the US has also seen a decline, indicating a similar trend in the international market [2]. 4. Chemical Sector - PX average price is 838.7 USD/ton, down by 16.1 USD/ton week-on-week, but the price differential with crude oil has improved to 344.7 USD/ton, up by 9.3 USD/ton [2]. - PX operating rate remains stable at 82.4% [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The chlor-alkali industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, driven by a tightening supply of glyphosate and glufosinate, leading to price increases [4][20] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to be a key focus in 2025 and beyond, aiming to optimize the competitive landscape in the chemical industry [26] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.1% this week, with 76.7% of the 545 tracked stocks showing weekly gains [17] - The average price of glyphosate increased to 26,399 CNY/ton, a rise of 0.37% from the previous week, while glufosinate also saw a price increase [21][22] Key Products Tracking - Urea and potassium chloride prices have risen, while phosphorite and phosphates remain stable [52] - The average price of urea reached 1,780 CNY/ton, up 0.62% from the previous week, driven by improved market sentiment [52][54] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include leading chemical companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Hengli Petrochemical [6][26] - Beneficiary stocks include companies like Jiangshan Co., Ltd. and Hebei New Chemical Materials [24][27]

Market Overview - The refining and trading sector increased by 0.44% compared to the previous trading day, with Unification Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3633.99, up 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11177.78, up 0.64% [1] Stock Performance - Unification Co. (600506) closed at 20.29, with a rise of 2.63% and a trading volume of 139,500 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 280 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include: - Compton (603798) at 12.03, up 1.86% [1] - Tongkun Co. (601233) at 12.35, up 1.40% [1] - Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) at 9.20, up 1.21% [1] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector experienced a net outflow of 96.07 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 135 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for key stocks includes: - China Petroleum (601857) with a net inflow of 46.53 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Unification Co. (600506) with a net inflow of 35.02 million yuan [3] - Tongkun Co. (601233) with a net inflow of 18.36 million yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the polyester industry, particularly for polyester filament yarn, with expectations for improved profitability during the peak season [4][6][19]. Core Insights - The profitability of polyester filament yarn has shown signs of improvement since late July, following a period of weak demand due to export tariffs and seasonal factors [6][7]. - The report highlights that the current inventory pressure is primarily concentrated in the downstream textile sector, with downstream fabric inventory at a high of 30.57 days and filament raw material inventory at a low of 9.85 days [14][15]. - The upstream oil sector is experiencing rising oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures closing at $69.67 per barrel, reflecting a 1.8% increase week-on-week [23][24]. - The refining sector is seeing mixed results, with overseas refined oil crack spreads increasing, while olefin price spreads show variability [54][56]. Summary by Sections Polyester Sector - Polyester filament yarn profitability is gradually improving, with price spreads for POY, FDY, and DTY reaching 1211, 1516, and 1200 CNY/ton respectively as of August 1 [7][19]. - The overall operating rate for polyester filament yarn remains around 90%, while downstream textile enterprises are operating at a low of 50.4% [15][19]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices have increased, with a week-on-week rise of 1.8%, and WTI prices up by 3.33% [23][24]. - The report notes a decrease in the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S., with a total of 540 rigs as of August 1, down by 2 from the previous week [34]. Refining Sector - The report indicates that the Singapore refining margin for major products has increased to $15.48 per barrel, while domestic refining margins remain at lower levels [54][56]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as economic recovery progresses, despite current low margins [54][56]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as high-quality refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a weekly briefing on large - scale refining and chemical industries, presenting the latest data on key projects' spreads, various product prices, profits, inventories, and operating rates, as well as the performance of related listed companies [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Stock Price and Market Value of Listed Companies**: On August 1, 2025, the stock prices of companies like Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and others were reported, along with their total market values, and the data on their changes in stock prices over different time periods such as the past week, month, three - month, and one - year were presented. The profit forecasts for these companies from 2024 to 2027 were also provided [8]. - **Oil Price and Refining Spread**: The average price of international crude oil (Brent and WTI) this week increased compared to last week, with Brent at $71.2 per barrel (up 3.3%) and WTI at $68.0 per barrel (up 2.7%). The spreads of domestic and foreign key refining projects decreased, with the domestic spread at 2403.5 yuan/ton (down 3.4%) and the foreign spread at 1025.4 yuan/ton (down 7.0%) [8]. - **Polyester Sector**: The average prices of POY, FDY, and DTY increased this week, with POY at 6721.4 yuan/ton (up 142.9 yuan/ton), FDY at 6985.7 yuan/ton (up 171.4 yuan/ton), and DTY at 7907.1 yuan/ton (up 103.6 yuan/ton). The weekly average profits of POY, FDY, and DTY improved, but the inventory days increased, and the operating rate of filament decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 91.9%. The operating rate of downstream looms decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 55.5%, and the raw material inventory of weaving enterprises increased by 1.2 days to 10.4 days, while the finished - product inventory increased by 0.3 days to 30.7 days [2][10]. - **Refining Sector**: The prices of diesel and aviation kerosene in China and the United States decreased this week [2][10]. - **Chemical Sector**: The average price of PX this week was $854.9 per ton (up $5.6 per ton), and the spread compared to crude oil was $335.4 per ton (down $10.8 per ton), with an operating rate of 82.4% (unchanged) [2][10]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report - **2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends**: It mainly shows the changes in the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index, the petroleum and petrochemical index, and oil prices, as well as the weekly spreads of domestic and foreign large - scale refining projects [14][19]. - **2.2 Polyester Sector**: It presents multiple data such as the prices, profits, inventories, and operating rates of PX, PTA, MEG, POY, FDY, DTY, polyester staple fiber, polyester bottle chips, and the operating rate of downstream weaving [24][33][38]. - **2.3 Refining Sector**: It includes the prices, spreads, and related data of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in China, the United States, Europe, and Singapore [83][98][111][121]. - **2.4 Chemical Sector**: It shows the prices, spreads, and related data of various chemical products such as polyethylene LLDPE, homopolymerized polypropylene, EVA foaming materials, EVA photovoltaic materials, styrene, PC, acrylonitrile, and MMA [131][132][139].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the FDCA industry [7] Core Insights - FDCA is a high-value bio-based compound with a wide range of applications, particularly in the production of PEF, which has significant market potential [1][3][5] - The global FDCA market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9% from 2021 to 2028, potentially reaching USD 873.28 million by 2028 [3] - PEF, derived from FDCA, exhibits superior properties compared to PET, making it a promising alternative in various applications [4][5] Summary by Sections FDCA Overview - FDCA is a bio-based aromatic monomer derived from biomass such as starch and cellulose, recognized as a suitable substitute for terephthalic acid [1][14] - The synthesis routes for FDCA include chemical and biological methods, with the HMF route being the most promising for industrialization [1][26][27] Domestic and International Development - Internationally, several companies have achieved FDCA production since 2004, while domestic efforts began around 2010 and are rapidly advancing [2][45][56] - Notable international players include Avantium, Corbion Purac, and DuPont, which have made significant strides in FDCA and PEF research and production [45][46][48] Market Potential and Applications - The FDCA market is projected to exceed USD 1.13 billion by 2031, driven by increasing demand for bio-based products [3] - PEF's applications span food packaging, films, and fibers, with its oxygen and carbon dioxide barrier properties significantly outperforming PET [4][18][19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in FDCA production, such as Tongkun Co., New Fengming, and Zhenhai Refining & Chemical [5][58][60]

Group 1: Macro Data Insights - In July, economic data showed a mixed trend, with industrial value-added maintaining stability, while retail sales growth slowed down, particularly in the home appliance and communication sectors [4][17] - Investment in infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing saw a decline compared to the previous month, with CPI remaining low and PPI continuing negative growth [4][17] - Financial data indicated insufficient demand for real economy financing, despite growth in social financing stock supported by government bond issuance [4][17] Group 2: Policy Insights - July's macro policy focused on structural adjustments and industrial upgrades, emphasizing the need to regulate competition, optimize supply, and eliminate outdated production capacity [4][17] - These policy measures are expected to accelerate the clearing of the production capacity cycle and support price data recovery, laying a foundation for high-quality economic development [4][17] Group 3: Industry Allocation Recommendations - The market may face short-term technical adjustment pressure, but the medium-term upward trend remains intact, with a continued positive outlook on technological innovation and domestic consumption [4][17] - For August, it is recommended to focus on industries benefiting from medium to long-term policy support, particularly in sectors with lower emotional crowding, such as food and agricultural products [4][17] - The real estate sector is expected to gradually improve under policy guidance, while certain dividend assets like electricity, oil equipment, and transportation also warrant attention [4][17] Group 4: Monthly Stock Recommendations - The recommended stocks for August 2025 include: - 300207.SZ XINWANDA - 600109.SH GUOJIN SECURITIES - 688303.SH DAQUAN ENERGY - 002624.SZ PERFECT WORLD - 688122.SH WESTERN SUPERCONDUCTOR - 688041.SH HAIGUANG INFORMATION - 000988.SZ HUAGONG TECHNOLOGY - 603993.SH LUOYANG MOLYBDENUM - 000625.SZ CHANGAN AUTOMOBILE - 601233.SH TONGKUN CO., LTD [5][18][20] Group 5: Performance Review - In July 2025, the CSI 300 Index rose by 3.55%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 8.33%. The monthly stock combination achieved a return of 6.03%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.48 percentage points but underperforming the ChiNext Index by 2.31 percentage points [6][9][13] - The cumulative return of the monthly stock combination as of July 31, 2025, was 16.40%, surpassing the CSI 300 Index by 12.74 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 7.44 percentage points [13][15] Group 6: Stock Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the recommended stocks in August 2025 are as follows: - 300207.SZ XINWANDA: 2025 EPS 1.21, 2026 EPS 1.50, 2025 PE 17.86, 2026 PE 14.39 - 600109.SH GUOJIN SECURITIES: 2025 EPS 0.53, 2026 EPS 0.57, 2025 PE 17.64, 2026 PE 16.17 - 688303.SH DAQUAN ENERGY: 2025 EPS -0.22, 2026 EPS 0.76, 2025 PE -116.40, 2026 PE 34.13 - 002624.SZ PERFECT WORLD: 2025 EPS 0.38, 2026 EPS 0.76, 2025 PE 38.41, 2026 PE 19.20 - 688122.SH WESTERN SUPERCONDUCTOR: 2025 EPS 1.54, 2026 EPS 1.86, 2025 PE 35.32, 2026 PE 29.37 - 688041.SH HAIGUANG INFORMATION: 2025 EPS 1.35, 2026 EPS 1.94, 2025 PE 102.83, 2026 PE 71.83 - 000988.SZ HUAGONG TECHNOLOGY: 2025 EPS 1.70, 2026 EPS 2.14, 2025 PE 29.69, 2026 PE 23.58 - 603993.SH LUOYANG MOLYBDENUM: 2025 EPS 0.71, 2026 EPS 0.78, 2025 PE 12.51, 2026 PE 11.42 - 000625.SZ CHANGAN AUTOMOBILE: 2025 EPS 0.81, 2026 EPS 1.00, 2025 PE 15.96, 2026 PE 12.88 - 601233.SH TONGKUN CO., LTD: 2025 EPS 0.90, 2026 EPS 1.28, 2025 PE 13.70, 2026 PE 9.66 [21][22]

Group 1 - The chemical industry is undergoing a phase of eliminating and updating old equipment, with a focus on safety and compliance with industry standards. A plan has been issued for the period 2024-2029 to systematically eliminate outdated production facilities and enhance existing ones [2][3] - The domestic polyester filament capacity has grown rapidly from 33.28 million tons in 2019 to 43.16 million tons in 2023, with an annual growth rate of 5%. However, the growth rate is expected to slow down significantly due to high oil prices and weakening supply-demand dynamics [5][6] - The polyester filament industry is experiencing a shift from extensive capacity expansion to refined operations, with a focus on high-value-added products and structural optimization. This trend is expected to enhance the market position of leading companies [5][6] Group 2 - The leading companies in the polyester filament industry, such as Tongkun Co. and New Fengming, hold significant market shares, with Tongkun accounting for 31.1% of the capacity. The industry concentration is high, with the top six companies (CR6) holding 87.9% of the market [6] - The industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and a decline in oil prices, which will likely improve the overall industry outlook. Leading companies are positioned to leverage their advantages in integration, scale, technology, and cost efficiency [6]