Investment Rating - The report rates the petrochemical industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2][8]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is expected to gradually phase out old production capacities that are over 20 years old, driven by new regulations from the Ministry of Emergency Management and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [2]. - The refining sector has a high proportion of old facilities, with nearly 50% of the total refining capacity being over 20 years old, suggesting significant room for improvement in supply [2][3]. - The olefins market, particularly propylene, shows potential for recovery as 21% of its capacity is over 20 years old, and current market conditions are favorable due to reduced overseas supply [2]. - The polyester segment has fewer old facilities, but the recovery potential for polyester filament is significant, with 13% of its capacity being over 20 years old [2]. Summary by Sections Old Capacity Analysis - The report highlights that nearly 50% of refining capacity and 40% of capacity over 30 years old are considered old, indicating a substantial opportunity for supply-side improvements [2][3]. - Specific old capacity percentages for various petrochemical products include: - Refining: 49.3% (20 years), 39.4% (30 years) - Propylene: 21.2% (20 years), 10.1% (30 years) - Pure Benzene: 17.8% (20 years), 3.1% (30 years) [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the phase-out of old capacities [2]. - In the propylene sector, companies like Satellite Chemical and Baofeng Energy are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the market recovery [2]. - For polyester filament, Tongkun Co. is recommended as a key player to watch as the market conditions improve [2].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [1]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is experiencing a downturn due to falling oil prices, with expectations for recovery in the mid to downstream sectors in the future [1]. - The report highlights a significant decrease in crude oil prices in Q2 2025, with Brent crude averaging $66.7 per barrel, down 11.0% quarter-on-quarter and 21.5% year-on-year [5][6]. - Key companies in the industry are projected to report lower profits in Q2 2025 due to the impact of declining oil prices and inventory losses [5]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Trends - In Q2 2025, Brent crude oil averaged $66.7 per barrel, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.5% [5][6]. - Gasoline and diesel prices were adjusted three times upwards and two times downwards, with total reductions of 155 CNY/ton for gasoline and 150 CNY/ton for diesel [5]. Price Spread Analysis - The report notes that the price spreads for styrene, PX-naphtha, ethylene-naphtha, and crude oil catalytic cracking widened, while spreads for propane-propylene, butyl acrylate, and PTA-PX narrowed in Q2 2025 [5][7]. - The average price spread for ethylene from ethane was $567/ton, narrowing by $43/ton quarter-on-quarter [5][7]. Company Performance Forecasts - Major companies are expected to report the following net profits for Q2 2025: - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC): 40 billion CNY (YoY -7%, QoQ -15%) - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC): 30 billion CNY (YoY -25%, QoQ -18%) - Sinopec: 6 billion CNY (YoY -65%, QoQ -55%) - CNOOC Services: 1.2 billion CNY (YoY +25%, QoQ +35%) - Offshore Oil Engineering: 600 million CNY (YoY -17%, QoQ +11%) [5][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for polyester recovery, recommending attention to leading companies such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [5]. - It also highlights potential improvements in refining companies' costs and competitive positioning, recommending companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [5]. - The report indicates that the upstream exploration and development sector remains robust, with recommendations for offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Offshore Oil Engineering [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment rating [4]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is expected to see the exit of over 20-year-old outdated capacities, which could accelerate the recovery of the refining sector. The EIA has adjusted its oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to an average of $69 and $58 per barrel, respectively [4][10]. - Demand for oil is projected to increase by 700,000 to 800,000 barrels per day this year, with a notable decline in demand in Q2 2025. The IEA and OPEC have also provided similar forecasts for global oil demand growth [4][15]. - The report highlights the potential for improved profitability in the polyester sector, driven by supply-demand dynamics and the gradual exit of outdated capacities [21]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices decreased to $69.28 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 1.53%. The WTI price also fell by 1.62% to $67.34 per barrel [25]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. increased by 7 to 544, although this represents a year-on-year decrease of 42 rigs [39]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin increased to $14.50 per barrel, while the U.S. gasoline crack spread decreased to $21.14 per barrel [4]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as oil prices adjust downward, and the competitive landscape for leading refining companies is expected to benefit from the exit of overseas refineries and low domestic refining rates [21]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability is on the rise, while profits from polyester filament yarn have declined. The report notes that the overall performance of the polyester industry is average, with a need to monitor demand changes [4][21]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as the industry is expected to gradually improve [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends attention to leading refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and China Petroleum, as well as upstream exploration and production companies like CNOOC and China National Petroleum Corporation [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has outperformed the market, with the industry index rising by 1.8% from July 11 to July 18, compared to a 0.7% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [9][20] - The report highlights significant price increases in TDI, glyphosate, and glufosinate due to supply disruptions and rising demand, particularly in South America [6][31][33] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and improved demand due to recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy [17] - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term investment in core assets as the profitability of chemical products has likely bottomed out, suggesting a recovery in valuations [17][18] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index has shown a year-to-date increase of 10.8%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices by 5.4% and 4.5%, respectively [20][26] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 251 stocks rose while 162 fell during the reporting week, with notable gainers including Shangwei New Materials (+148.8%) and Dongcai Technology (+33.2%) [29][30] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - A fire at Covestro's TDI plant in Germany has led to significant supply disruptions, creating opportunities for price increases in TDI [31][32] - Glyphosate prices have increased to 25,500 CNY per ton, reflecting a 7.16% month-over-month rise, driven by reduced inventory levels [33] - New regulations on glufosinate are expected to constrain supply, potentially leading to price increases as the market adjusts [34]

2025 年 7 月 15 日，公司在全国银行间市场发行了 2025 年度第 六期科技创新债券，发行总额为 5 亿元。募集资金已于 2025 年 7 月 16 日全额到账。现将发行结果公告如下： 股票代码：601233 股票简称：桐昆股份 公告编号：2025-046 桐昆集团股份有限公司关于 2025年度第六期科技创新债券发行结果的公告 本公司董事会及董事会全体成员保证公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实、准确和完整承担法律责任。 2024 年 4 月 25 日，桐昆集团股份有限公司（以下简称"桐昆股 份"或"公司"）第九届董事会第八次会议审议通过了《关于发行超 短期融资券的议案》，上述议案经 2024 年 5 月 21 日召开的公司 2023 年年度股东大会审议批准。股东大会同意公司向中国银行间市场交易 商协会（以下简称"交易商协会"）申请注册发行不超过 60 亿元（人 民币，下同）的超短期融资券，并授权董事会办理发行的具体事项。 2024 年 8 月 30 日，经交易商协会《接受注册通知书》（中市协 注［2024］SCP273 号）核准，交易商协会决定接受公司超短期融资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chanhen (002895 CH), Yuntianhua (600096 CH), and NHU (002001 CH), while Skshu (603737 CH) and Yuhong (002271 CH) are rated "Hold" [3][4][8]. Core Insights - The phosphate sector is experiencing strong performance, with companies like NHU expecting a profit increase of 50-70% in 1H25, driven by resilient agricultural demand and rising prices [3]. - Chanhen and Yuntianhua are highlighted as top picks due to their earnings momentum and robust dividend profiles, with expected earnings growth of over 40% year-on-year for Chanhen in 2Q and around 10% for Yuntianhua [3][8]. - The report notes potential catalysts for growth, including rising fertilizer export prices and elevated phosphate rock prices during the peak planting season [3]. Summary by Sections Phosphate Sector - Phosphate companies are expected to lead the sector, with Chanhen and Yuntianhua showing strong earnings growth and dividend yields exceeding 6% in 2025 [3][8]. - NHU's profit guidance indicates overall sector strength, with a projected increase of 50-70% [3]. Building Materials - Skshu has issued positive profit guidance for 2Q, projecting earnings growth of 69-118% year-on-year, but the report maintains a "Hold" rating due to the growth being largely priced in [4]. - Yuhong is expected to face ongoing weakness in earnings due to challenges in new housing and engineering construction [4]. Commodity Chemicals - Satellite Chemical is facing headwinds with expected earnings declines due to turbulence in ethane/propane imports and operational risks [5]. - Wanhua and LB Group are also under pressure from anti-dumping duties affecting their core products, leading to a negative outlook for their 2Q earnings [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has shown better performance than the market, with a year-to-date increase of 8.9%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.2 percentage points [4][16] - The global potash market is characterized by oligopoly, with major producers controlling supply and prices. Recent production cuts by key players are expected to sustain potash market conditions [5][27] - Phosphate supply remains tight, with stable prices and potential improvements in export opportunities as demand increases [5][27] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Policies are expected to improve supply-demand dynamics in the chemical sector, with a focus on cyclical investment opportunities [13] - The chemical industry is entering a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by improved fundamentals and reduced risks [13][14] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 1.5% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.4 percentage points [16] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 8.9%, significantly outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices [16][18] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 298 stocks rose while 123 fell during the week [25] - The top performers included companies like Shangwei New Materials (+72.9%) and Hongbo New Materials (+24.7%) [25][26] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The autumn fertilizer preparation has begun, with a focus on investment opportunities in potash and phosphate fertilizers [27] - Major potash producers have announced production cuts, which are expected to tighten supply and support prices [5][27] - Phosphate prices remain stable, with potential for improved export conditions as demand increases [5][27] 5. Product Price Changes - The report highlights significant price increases in various chemical products, with notable gains in dimethylamine (+16.7%) and fatty alcohol (+8.2%) [6] - Conversely, urea prices have seen a significant decline (-15%) [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting potential recovery in polyester and refining sectors [2][14]. Core Insights - The EIA has revised down its natural gas price forecasts due to rising inventories, with the third-quarter price expected at $3.37 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) and the fourth quarter at $3.99 MMBtu [2][3]. - U.S. natural gas inventories reached 30,060 billion cubic feet, significantly above the five-year average, indicating a clear accumulation trend [6]. - Oil prices have shown an upward trend, with Brent crude futures closing at $70.36 per barrel, reflecting a 3.02% increase week-over-week [18]. - The report anticipates a downward adjustment in oil prices due to widening supply-demand dynamics, although OPEC production cuts and shale oil cost support may maintain prices at mid-high levels [2][18]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas Market - The EIA has lowered its natural gas price forecasts for Q3 and Q4 2025, with average prices expected at $3.67 and $4.41 per MMBtu for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2][3]. - U.S. natural gas production reached 11.68 billion cubic feet per day in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7 billion cubic feet per day [6]. - Solar power is increasingly substituting natural gas in electricity generation, with a projected 3% decline in gas-fired generation in 2025 [11]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices increased to $70.36 per barrel, while WTI prices rose to $68.45 per barrel, with weekly average prices showing gains of 2.34% and 2.44%, respectively [18]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose to 426 million barrels, with gasoline inventories decreasing to 229 million barrels [19]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased to 537, down 2 from the previous week and 47 year-on-year [29]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products decreased to $13.70 per barrel, reflecting a decline of $0.31 per barrel week-over-week [50]. - The report notes that refining profitability is expected to improve as oil prices adjust downward, with domestic refining product margins still at low levels [48]. Polyester Sector - The report highlights a recovery expectation in the polyester sector, with improved profitability anticipated as supply-demand dynamics stabilize [14]. - Key companies to watch include Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, which are expected to benefit from this recovery [14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, which are expected to benefit from improved competitive dynamics [14]. - It also suggests monitoring companies in the upstream exploration and production sector, particularly offshore oil service firms like CNOOC Services and Offshore Oil Engineering, which are projected to see performance improvements [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, with specific buy and hold recommendations for various companies [2][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights the closure of Dow's organic silicon production capacity in Barry, UK, which is expected to increase domestic export demand and support the upstream industrial silicon costs, indicating a potential reversal in the organic silicon industry [4][5]. - The demand for high-end AI PCBs is projected to surge due to the continuous growth in computing power requirements, driven by GPU, ASIC, and 800G switch technologies [4]. - The report notes that the recent tariff announcements from the US on imports from Southeast Asia are lower than expected, stabilizing pessimistic market sentiments [4]. Industry Dynamics - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a significant increase in oil supply led by non-OPEC countries, with a stable global GDP growth rate of 2.8% [5]. - The report mentions that coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term, alleviating pressure on downstream sectors [5]. - Natural gas exports from the US are anticipated to accelerate, potentially lowering import costs [5]. Company Recommendations - Companies to watch in the organic silicon sector include Dongyue Silicon Materials, Xin'an Chemical, and Xingfa Group [4]. - In the PCB sector, recommended companies include Shengquan Group, Dongcai Technology, Lianrui New Materials, Yake Technology, Tiancheng Technology, and Jiuri New Materials [4]. - For traditional cyclical stocks, the report suggests focusing on leading companies in various segments such as Wanhu Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy [4]. Price Trends - The report provides specific price movements for various chemical products, such as PTA prices decreasing by 2.8% to 4715 RMB/ton, while MEG prices increased by 0.7% to 4409 RMB/ton [11]. - Urea prices rose by 2.9% to 1800 RMB/ton, while phosphate prices remained stable [12]. - The report notes that the price of DMC increased by 1.9% to 11000 RMB/ton, indicating a recovery in the organic silicon market [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a weekly update on the large refining and chemical industry, covering various aspects such as price trends, profit margins, inventory levels, and开工 rates in different sectors including polyester, refining, and chemicals. It also provides data on the stock performance and earnings forecasts of major private refining and chemical companies [2][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Stock Performance and Earnings Forecast**: The report tracks the price changes of 6 major private refining companies over different time - frames (weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly, and year - to - date in 2025). It also provides earnings forecasts for these companies from 2024 to 2027, including total market capitalization, net profit attributable to shareholders, PE, and PB [8]. - **Oil Prices and Refining Spreads**: International crude oil prices (Brent and WTI) decreased this week. The domestic refining project spread remained stable with a 0.0% week - on - week change, while the foreign refining project spread decreased by 9.4% week - on - week [8]. - **Polyester Sector**: - **Raw Materials and Intermediate Products**: PX average price decreased by $17.0/ton week - on - week, and its spread over crude oil decreased by $29.4/ton. MEG price increased by 14.3 yuan/ton, and PTA price decreased by 185.0 yuan/ton. - **Polyester Filament**: POY, FDY, and DTY prices decreased, and their profit margins also declined. Inventory levels of POY, FDY, and DTY increased, while the开工 rate of polyester filament increased to 91.9%. The downstream weaving开工 rate decreased to 56.2%, and the raw material inventory of weaving enterprises decreased, while the finished product inventory increased [2][9]. - **Other Polyester Products**: The price of polyester staple fiber decreased, but its profit margin increased. The price of polyester bottle - grade chips decreased, and its profit margin also decreased [9]. - **Refining Sector**: - **Domestic Refined Oil**: The prices of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in China decreased this week. - **US Refined Oil**: The prices of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US increased this week. - **European and Singaporean Refined Oil**: The prices of refined oil products in Europe and Singapore showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [9]. - **Chemical Sector**: The prices and spreads of various chemical products such as pure benzene, styrene, acrylonitrile, and polyethylene decreased to varying degrees [9]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report - **2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends**: The report may contain data on the performance of the big refining index and the spread trends of domestic and foreign refining projects, but specific data is not fully presented in the provided text [11][12]. - **2.2 Polyester Sector**: It includes multiple data series related to the polyester sector, such as the relationship between crude oil, PX, PTA, and polyester filament prices, profit margins,开工 rates, inventory levels, and production and sales rates [22][23][37]. - **2.3 Refining Sector**: It provides detailed data on the relationship between crude oil and refined oil prices (gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene) in different regions (China, the US, Europe, and Singapore), including price spreads and changes [79][89][94]. - **2.4 Chemical Sector**: It presents data on the relationship between crude oil and various chemical product prices (such as polyethylene, polypropylene, EVA, etc.), including price spreads and changes [129][130][134].