行 业 及 产 业 石油石化 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 2025 年 10 月 12 日 俄罗斯炼厂停产规模创新高，乌拉 尔原油出口增加 看好 ——石油化工行业周报(2025/10/6—2025/10/12) 相关研究 证券分析师 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 丁莹 A0230125070005 dingying@swsresearch.com 联系人 丁莹 (8621)23297818× dingying@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 证 券 - ⚫ 俄罗斯炼厂停产规模创新高，乌拉尔原油出口增加。自 2024 年 8 月以来，俄罗斯炼油 厂停产规模创下历史新高，截至 9 月底，高达 38%的一次加工产能（约 33.8 万吨/日） 处于停产状态。约 ...

行 业 及 产 业 基础化工 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230525090001 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230525070002 lisc@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕晔 (8621)23297818× maxy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 10 月 12 日 钛白粉近期二次提价，四季度制冷 剂长协价大幅上涨 看好 ——《化工周报 25/10/09-25/10/10》 本期投资提示： ⚫ 投资分析意见： 请务 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the U.S. government shutdown and its impact on economic data and market sentiment, alongside the upcoming 20th Central Committee meeting in China, which will focus on the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][2] - The market is expected to continue a trend of oscillating upward, supported by positive domestic PMI data and expectations surrounding the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][2] - The report highlights a potential increase in foreign capital inflows in the fourth quarter, which could support the A-share market [4][2] - The core investment direction is likely to remain focused on technology assets in the near term [4][2] October Stock Picks - The October stock picks include: - China Southern Airlines (Transportation) - COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers (Transportation) - Tongkun Co., Ltd. (Chemicals) - Yake Technology (Chemicals) - CATL (Electric New Energy) - Lingnan Holdings (Social Services) - Jinghe Integrated (Electronics) - Shenzhen South Circuit (Electronics) - GoerTek (Electronics) - Jieshun Technology (Computers) [9][10] September Performance Review - The September stock portfolio outperformed the market, with notable monthly returns exceeding 30% for CATL and Zhaoyi Innovation, and an absolute return of 4.64%, outperforming the market benchmark by 1.44 percentage points [5][6] Transportation Sector: China Southern Airlines - China Southern Airlines is a leading airline service provider with a significant market share and a robust hub network centered in Guangzhou and Beijing. The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 174.22 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.94% year-on-year growth [11][12] - The airline industry in China has seen a 172.8% growth in passenger transport over the past 15 years, with a projected domestic passenger transport volume of 730 million in 2024, a 17.86% increase [12][13] Transportation Sector: COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers - The company reported a 44.05% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 10.775 billion yuan, with a net profit of 825 million yuan, marking a 13.08% increase [14][15] - The demand for specialized vessels remains strong, particularly in the automotive shipping segment, which saw a 439.87% increase in revenue [15][16] Chemicals Sector: Tongkun Co., Ltd. - The company experienced an 8.41% year-on-year decrease in revenue for the first half of 2025, totaling 44.158 billion yuan, with a notable decline in polyester filament prices due to fluctuating oil prices [16][17] - The gross profit margin improved to 6.76%, reflecting a 0.57 percentage point increase year-on-year [17][18] Chemicals Sector: Yake Technology - The company reported steady revenue growth driven by LNG and electronic materials, with a gross profit margin of 31.82% in the first half of 2025 [19][20] - The electronic materials segment saw a 15.37% year-on-year revenue increase, with significant contributions from semiconductor chemical materials [20][21] New Energy Sector: CATL - CATL is projected to achieve a net profit of 50.745 billion yuan in 2024, a 15.01% increase year-on-year, with a total revenue of 362.013 billion yuan [23][24] - The company maintains a leading position in the global battery market, with a 37.9% market share in 2024 [24][25] Social Services Sector: Lingnan Holdings - The company reported an 8.52% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, totaling 2.09 billion yuan, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, reflecting a 24.39% increase [26][27] - The opening of a city duty-free store is expected to enhance customer flow and boost related tourism industry growth [27][28] Electronics Sector: Jinghe Integrated - The company achieved a 28% year-on-year revenue increase in 2024, totaling 9.249 billion yuan, with a net profit of 533 million yuan, marking a 152% increase [29][30] - The company is focusing on optimizing product structure and upgrading technology processes to maintain competitive advantages [30][31] Electronics Sector: Shenzhen South Circuit - The company reported a 25.63% year-on-year revenue increase in the first half of 2025, reaching 10.453 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.36 billion yuan [32][33] - The PCB business saw a 29.21% year-on-year increase in revenue, driven by demand in communication and data center sectors [33][34]

分红方面，桐昆股份A股上市后累计派现32.03亿元。近三年，累计派现3.41亿元。 10月9日，桐昆股份跌2.33%，成交额5.54亿元。两融数据显示，当日桐昆股份获融资买入额8925.57万 元，融资偿还2916.40万元，融资净买入6009.17万元。截至10月9日，桐昆股份融资融券余额合计19.73 亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，桐昆股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第七大流 通股东，持股2645.54万股，相比上期减少737.97万股。南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第八大流通股 东，持股2498.77万股，相比上期增加348.25万股。汇丰晋信新动力混合A（000965）位居第九大流通股 东，持股2288.90万股，为新进股东。 融资方面，桐昆股份当日融资买入8925.57万元。当前融资余额19.65亿元，占流通市值的5.60%，融资 余额低于近一年10%分位水平，处于低位。 融券方面，桐昆股份10月9日融券偿还9.13万股，融券卖出1300.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额 1.91万元；融券余量51.00万股，融券余额747.65万元，超过近一年50%分位水 ...

2025 年 1 月 2 日，桐昆集团股份有限公司（以下简称"桐昆股 份"或"本公司"）在全国银行间市场发行了 2025 年第一期超短期 融资券（科创票据）（简称：25 桐昆 SCP001（科创票据）），发行 总额为 5 亿元人民币，期限 270 天，发行利率为 1.95%，到期一次还 本付息。募集资金已于 2025 年 1 月 3 日全额到账。 现本公司 2025 年第一期超短期融资券已于 2025 年 9 月 30 日到 期，本公司于 2025 年 9 月 30 日兑付完成该期超短期融资券本息，本 息兑付总额为人民币 507,212,328.77 元。 特此公告。 股票代码：601233 股票简称：桐昆股份 公告编号：2025-056 桐昆集团股份有限公司 关于 2025 年第一期超短期融资券到期兑付的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 桐昆集团股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 10 月 10 日 ...

上市企业：恒逸石化（000703）,荣盛石化（002493）,新凤鸣（603225）,桐昆股份（601233）,恒力石化 （600346）,吉林化纤（000420）,华峰化学（002064）,澳洋健康（002172）,泰和新材（002254）,江南 高纤（600527） 2020-2025年1-8月中国合成纤维产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国合成纤维行业市场现状调查及发展趋向研判报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年8月中国合成纤维产量为680万吨，同比增长7.5%；2025年1-8月中国 合成纤维累计产量为5277.3万吨，累计增长5.7%。 ...

行 业 及 产 业 石油石化 2025 年 10 月 08 日 自然递减率呈现一定分化，油气供 应未来或将更加集中 看好 ——石油化工行业周报(2025/9/29—2025/10/5) 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 丁莹 A0230125070005 dingying@swsresearch.com 联系人 丁莹 (8621)23297818× dingying@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 1． 本周观点及推荐 1.1 本周思考：自然递减率呈现一定分化，油气供应未来 或将更加集中 国际能源署（IEA）分析显示，全球常规油气田产量正以显著的速度自然递减。IEA 对全球约 15000 个油气田 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for investment in sectors focusing on domestic demand, high dividends, and import substitution [1][5][6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the chemical industry is currently experiencing a mixed performance, with some products like synthetic ammonia and lithium battery electrolytes seeing price increases, while others like natural gas and sulfuric acid are declining [6][20] - The report suggests that the international oil price is expected to stabilize between $65 and $70 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and economic conditions [5][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-dividend stocks such as Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC due to their asset quality and dividend yield [5][20] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The chemical industry has shown varied performance over the past month, with a 0.3% increase in the basic chemical sector compared to a 2.7% increase in the CSI 300 index [1] - Key products that saw price increases include synthetic ammonia (up 8.58%) and lithium battery electrolytes (up 5.71%), while natural gas saw a significant decline of 7.90% [6][20] Investment Suggestions - The report recommends focusing on sectors that are likely to enter a growth cycle, such as glyphosate, and emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks with strong competitive positions and growth potential [7][20] - Specific companies recommended include Jiangshan Chemical, Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in the glyphosate sector [7][20] - The report also highlights the resilience of domestic chemical fertilizer and pesticide sectors, suggesting companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Xin Yangfeng as potential investment opportunities [20] Price Trends - The report notes that while some chemical products are rebounding in price, the overall industry remains under pressure due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [6][20] - The report indicates that the PTA market is experiencing downward pressure, with prices declining due to weak demand from downstream polyester sectors [33][34] Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report lists several companies with strong earnings forecasts and investment ratings, including Xin Yangfeng, Senqilin, and Ruifeng New Materials, all rated as "Buy" [9][10][20]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the commercialization of AI applications is approaching a critical turning point, with a focus on domestic computing power and rapidly advancing application verticals [6][7][8] - The demand for AI applications is reflected in the significant increase in Tokens consumption, indicating a rapid expansion of AI application needs across various sectors such as AI programming, AI multimodal, AI advertising, AI education, and AI healthcare [7][8] - The report highlights the strong performance of the overseas computing power chain, with a 255% increase since April 9, 2025, while domestic computing power, particularly the Huawei chain, has seen a more modest increase of 71% [9] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.53, up 0.90%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.05% to 13479.43 [3] - The performance of various industry indices shows that non-bank financials increased by 3.84%, and metals by 3.78%, while coal and oil sectors experienced declines [4] Industry Focus - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the domestic computing power and AI application sectors, particularly those related to Huawei's computing power and software chains, which are expected to yield favorable performance in the near term [9] - The AI application business model is transitioning from concept validation to revenue generation, with a clear need for established overseas business models to guide domestic market development [7][8]

截至6月30日，桐昆股份股东户数7.06万，较上期减少0.22%；人均流通股33944股，较上期增加0.22%。 2025年1月-6月，桐昆股份实现营业收入441.58亿元，同比减少8.41%；归母净利润10.97亿元，同比增长 2.93%。 分红方面，桐昆股份A股上市后累计派现32.03亿元。近三年，累计派现3.41亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，桐昆股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第七大流 通股东，持股2645.54万股，相比上期减少737.97万股。南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第八大流通股 东，持股2498.77万股，相比上期增加348.25万股。汇丰晋信新动力混合A（000965）位居第九大流通股 东，持股2288.90万股，为新进股东。 9月29日，桐昆股份涨0.13%，成交额4.67亿元。两融数据显示，当日桐昆股份获融资买入额2693.68万 元，融资偿还5200.00万元，融资净买入-2506.32万元。截至9月29日，桐昆股份融资融券余额合计19.22 亿元。 融资方面，桐昆股份当日融资买入2693.68万元。当前融资余额19.10亿元，占流通市值的5. ...