Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and chemical fiber industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the supply-side clearing pattern is improving, and the industry is awaiting a recovery in prosperity [1] - The report emphasizes the ongoing elimination and upgrading of outdated chemical facilities, which is expected to stabilize the supply side of the industry [4] - The polyester filament industry is experiencing a continuous increase in concentration, with leading companies likely to benefit from the recovery in industry prosperity [5][7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chemical industry is undergoing a phase of eliminating outdated facilities, with a focus on safety and efficiency improvements. A plan has been issued for the period from 2024 to 2029 to phase out non-compliant production facilities and upgrade existing ones [4] - The domestic refining capacity is expected to be maintained at around 1 billion tons, with a target utilization rate of over 80% for major products by 2025 [4] Polyester Filament Sector - The domestic polyester filament capacity has grown from 33.28 million tons in 2019 to 43.16 million tons in 2023, with an annual growth rate of 5%. The growth rate is expected to slow down significantly due to high oil prices and weakened supply-demand dynamics [5] - The industry is shifting from extensive expansion to refined operations, with a focus on high-value-added products, which is expected to enhance the market competitiveness of leading companies [5][7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the "refining-chemical fiber" sector, including Tongkun Co., Ltd., Xinfengming Group, Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing industry recovery [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pesticide industry, suggesting a "Buy" rating for key companies such as Yangnong Chemical, Lier Chemical, and Runfeng Shares [3][20]. Core Insights - The pesticide industry is experiencing a recovery due to the "Zhengfeng Zhijuan" initiative aimed at regulating the market, which has led to price increases for key products like fluorocarbon herbicides [3][4]. - The report highlights the impact of maintenance shutdowns at major production facilities, such as Wanhua's Hungarian plant, which may lead to supply shortages and price increases in the TDI market [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved industry dynamics through the elimination of outdated production capacity, as indicated by government initiatives targeting key sectors [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic conditions indicate a stable global GDP growth of 2.8%, with oil demand expected to rise despite some slowdown due to tariffs [4]. - The report notes that coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term, alleviating pressure on downstream industries [4]. Chemical Prices - Recent price movements include a 15% increase in the price of Lier Chemical's fluorocarbon herbicide and a similar rise for Zhongqi Shares [3][11]. - The report mentions that the price of TDI is expected to rise due to low global inventory levels and potential supply disruptions from maintenance activities [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on traditional cyclical stocks and specific sectors such as coal chemical, real estate chain, and agricultural chemicals, highlighting companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [3][20]. - Growth stocks with recovery potential are identified, including semiconductor materials and OLED panel materials, with specific companies recommended for investment [3][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of filaments and staple fibers weakened in the week. The domestic key large refining project spread increased slightly, while the foreign spread decreased slightly. The profits of the polyester filament industry declined, and the inventory decreased. The prices of domestic and US refined oil products showed a downward trend. The PX price increased, and the spread with crude oil widened, but the PX operating rate decreased [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing 3.1.1 Price and Spread of Key Refining Projects - The spread of domestic key large refining projects this week was 2,526 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton (1.8%). The spread of foreign key large refining projects was 1,098 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton (-1.1%) [2][8]. 3.1.2 Polyester Plate - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average weekly prices of POY/FDY/DTY were 6,579/6,814/7,804 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 25/18/75 yuan/ton. The weekly average profits were - 155/-264/-205 yuan/ton, with week - on - week decreases of 76/71/109 yuan/ton. The price of polyester staple fiber was 6,617.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 32.9 yuan/ton, and the profit was 36.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 81.1 yuan/ton [2][9]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The inventory of POY/FDY/DTY was 15.5/20.3/28.1 days respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 9.9/5.3/2.6 days. The operating rate of filaments was 92.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points. The operating rate of downstream looms was 55.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The raw material inventory of weaving enterprises was 10.4 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.2 days, and the finished product inventory was 30.7 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 days [2][9]. 3.1.3 Refining Plate - **Domestic Refined Oil**: The prices of diesel and jet fuel decreased this week. - **US Refined Oil**: The US gasoline price decreased this week [2]. 3.1.4 Chemical Plate - The average PX price this week was 849.3 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.7 US dollars/ton. The spread with crude oil was 346.3 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8.1 US dollars/ton. The PX operating rate was 82.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 percentage points [2][9]. 3.1.5 Related Listed Companies - Private large refining and polyester filament companies include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd., and Xin Fengming [2]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report 3.2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends - The report shows the changes in the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, the petroleum and petrochemical index, and the oil price, as well as the market performance of six private large refining companies and the weekly spreads of domestic and foreign large refining projects [13][15][18]. 3.2.2 Polyester Plate - The report presents multiple data related to the polyester industry chain, including the prices and spreads of crude oil, PX, PTA, MEG, and various polyester products, the operating rates of related products, inventory days, and sales - to - production ratios [24][37][45]. 3.2.3 Refining Plate - The report analyzes the prices and spreads of refined oil products in different regions (domestic, US, Europe, and Singapore) and their relationships with crude oil prices [79][93][105]. 3.2.4 Chemical Plate - The report shows the prices and spreads of various chemical products such as polyethylene, polypropylene, EVA, and styrene and their relationships with crude oil prices [130][135][138].

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to rise, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a maximum intraday increase of 0.9% and closing up 0.3% [1] - Key stocks in the sector include Boryuan Chemical, which surged over 6%, Yangnong Chemical up over 5%, and Qixiang Tengda rising over 3% [1] - The sub-index of the chemical sector has outperformed major A-share indices, with a cumulative increase of 8.97% since July 1, compared to 4.68% for the Shanghai Composite Index and 5.41% for the CSI 300 [1][3] Group 2 - The basic chemical sector saw a net inflow of over 1.5 billion yuan on a single day, ranking fourth among 30 major sectors [2] - Over the past five trading days, the cumulative net inflow into the basic chemical sector exceeded 21.7 billion yuan, also ranking fourth [2] - The chemical ETF (516020) has a price-to-book ratio of 2.08, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [5] Group 3 - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new long-term prosperity cycle due to recent policies aimed at boosting economic confidence and demand for chemical products [5] - The supply-side reform is anticipated to improve domestic supply conditions significantly, with the chemical sector poised for a rebound [5][6] - The focus on cost factors such as green low-carbon initiatives and process optimization is expected to drive a re-pricing in the chemical sector [6] Group 4 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the sub-index of the chemical industry, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks, providing a strong investment opportunity [7] - Investors can also access the chemical sector through the chemical ETF linked funds [7]

Group 1 - The company has approved the issuance of medium-term notes with a total registered amount of up to 60 billion RMB, with a specific registration of 50 billion RMB accepted by the trading association [1] - On July 23, 2025, the company issued the seventh phase of its technology innovation bonds, raising a total of 300 million RMB, with the funds fully received on July 24, 2025 [2] - The relevant documents for the bond issuance have been published on the China Money website and the Shanghai Clearing House website [2]

股票代码：601233 股票简称：桐昆股份 公告编号：2025-047 桐昆集团股份有限公司 关于2025年度第七期科技创新债券发行结果的公告 本公司董事会及董事会全体成员保证公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实、准确和完整承担法律责任。 2023 年 4 月 20 日，桐昆集团股份有限公司（以下简称"桐昆股 份"或"公司"）第八届董事会第二十六次会议审议通过了《关于发 行中期票据的议案》，上述议案经 2023 年 5 月 31 日召开的公司 2022 年年度股东大会审议批准。股东大会同意公司向中国银行间市场交易 商协会（以下简称"交易商协会"）申请注册发行不超过 60 亿元（人 民币，下同）的中期票据，并授权董事会办理发行的具体事项。 2025 年 3 月 18 日，经交易商协会《接受注册通知书》(中市协 注［2025］MTN267 号)核准，交易商协会决定接受公司中期票据注册， 注册金额为人民币 50 亿元。注册额度自通知书落款之日起 2 年内有 效，公司在注册有效期内可分期发行中期票据。 2025 年 7 月 23 日，公司在全国银行间市场发行了 2025 年度第 七期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The polyester filament industry is undergoing a transformation with self-regulation measures improving pricing and profitability, while the industry is expected to see enhanced profitability in the medium term due to reduced production capacity and strong demand from downstream sectors [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The polyester filament expansion cycle is nearing its end, with new capacity concentrated among leading companies, resulting in increased market concentration [1]. - From 2014 to 2023, the industry's capacity grew from 21.03 million tons to 41.28 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.78%. In 2024, new capacity is expected to be only 970,000 tons, a significant drop to 2.35% year-on-year growth [1]. - The concentration ratio (CR6) is projected to rise from approximately 85% in 2023 to 87% in 2024, indicating stronger dominance by leading firms [1]. Group 2: Demand and Export Trends - The demand for polyester filament is supported by stable global textile and apparel demand, with domestic retail sales in clothing, shoes, and textiles increasing by 3.10% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, leading to a 5.37% increase in apparent consumption of polyester filament [2]. - Direct exports of polyester filament reached 1.7652 million tons in the first half of 2025, showing a robust year-on-year growth of 14.18% [2]. - The U.S. apparel market is recovering, with monthly sales figures showing positive growth since April 2024, which is expected to further bolster polyester filament demand [2]. Group 3: Profitability and Self-Regulation - The self-regulation initiative in May 2024, which included a "one-price" policy, initially improved polyester filament prices and profitability, with significant price increases noted in various filament types [3]. - However, the initiative faced challenges due to falling oil prices and low downstream operating rates, leading to a competitive pricing environment [3]. - Looking ahead to 2025, the removal of the "one-price" model is expected to allow for more flexible adjustments, with the industry maintaining strong profitability despite external pressures [3]. Group 4: Beneficiary Companies - Key beneficiaries in the polyester filament sector include Xinfengming (603225.SH), Tongkun (601233.SH), Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ), Hengyi Petrochemical (000703.SZ), and Dongfang Shenghong (000301.SZ) [4].

行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 化学纤维 沪深300 化学纤维 2025 年 07 月 24 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 涤纶长丝扩产周期已到尾声，新增产能集中于头部，龙头集中度再提升 涤纶长丝行业已告别高速扩产期，2014-2023 年行业产能从 2103 万吨增至 4128 万 吨，年均复合增长率达 7.78%；而 2024 年新增产能仅 97 万吨，同比增速骤降至 2.35%， 2025 年 155 万吨新增产能规划也仅由桐昆股份、新凤鸣两大龙头释放，且投产节奏 有序。近两年行业集中度也因此进一步提升，CR6 从 2023 年的 85%左右升至 2024 年的 87%，龙头企业对行业的主导能力进一步增强。展望 2026 年，行业潜在新增产 能依旧主要集中在桐昆股份和新凤鸣两大龙头。我们长期坚定看好，涤纶长丝行业 格局优化，盈利能力有望持续修复。 涤纶长丝下游纺服需求稳健，直接出口增长明显，带动长丝需求稳中向上 全球纺织服装需求稳健，对涤纶长丝需求起到良好支撑作用。国内方面，2025 年 1-6 月 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a strong rally, with the chemical ETF (516020) rising by 1.24% as of the latest update [1] - Key stocks such as Yipuli and Yara International have seen significant gains, with some stocks increasing over 3% [1] - The current situation in the chemical industry is reminiscent of the supply-side reforms of 2014-2015, suggesting a potential turning point for the sector [2] Group 2 - Domestic policies frequently emphasize supply-side requirements, while international factors like rising raw material costs and capacity exits in Europe and the U.S. add uncertainty to chemical supply [3] - The Chinese chemical industry is expected to leverage its competitive advantages in cost and technology to fill gaps in the international supply chain [3] - The implementation of new policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, including chemicals, is anticipated to lead to structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated capacities [3] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Index, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap stocks, providing an efficient way to invest in the sector [4] - The ETF includes a diverse range of chemical sub-sectors, allowing investors to capture various investment opportunities within the chemical industry [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the chemical industry [11] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing "involution" in the chemical industry, with multiple government meetings in 2024 highlighting the need to combat "malicious competition" and promote product quality [6][16] - The focus is on identifying potential investment opportunities within the chemical sector that can benefit from the government's "anti-involution" policies [17] Summary by Sections Why Focus on Chemical Industry Investment Opportunities? - The report outlines the government's commitment to addressing "involution" through various meetings and policy announcements, including the emphasis on supply-side structural reforms and the need for industry self-discipline [6][16] - The report suggests that the chemical industry can find opportunities under the current "anti-involution" policies, particularly through the identification of sectors with stable supply-demand dynamics [17] Which Sub-industries May Benefit from Anti-involution? - The report identifies several sub-industries likely to benefit from the anti-involution policies, including: 1. Comprehensive Chain: Chromium salts, caustic soda, industrial silicon, organic silicon 2. Agricultural Chain: Glyphosate, urea, methanol, sucralose/aspartame, MSG, lysine 3. Real Estate Chain: PVC, soda ash, titanium dioxide, MDI/TDI 4. Electronics Chain: Photoinitiators, refrigerants R134a/R32 5. Textile Chain: Dyes, viscose staple fiber, spandex, viscose filament, polyester filament 6. Automotive Chain: Polyester industrial yarn [7][8][20] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sub-industries that meet specific criteria such as slowing capacity growth, high operating rates, high concentration, minimal cost differences among leading companies, and products at the bottom of the price cycle [8][9] - Key sub-industries to watch include organic silicon, polyester filament, photoinitiators, glyphosate, industrial silicon, and MSG/amino acids, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [9][29]