Core Viewpoint - The polyester filament industry is undergoing a transformation with self-regulation measures improving pricing and profitability, while the industry is expected to see enhanced profitability in the medium term due to reduced production capacity and strong demand from downstream sectors [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The polyester filament expansion cycle is nearing its end, with new capacity concentrated among leading companies, resulting in increased market concentration [1]. - From 2014 to 2023, the industry's capacity grew from 21.03 million tons to 41.28 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.78%. In 2024, new capacity is expected to be only 970,000 tons, a significant drop to 2.35% year-on-year growth [1]. - The concentration ratio (CR6) is projected to rise from approximately 85% in 2023 to 87% in 2024, indicating stronger dominance by leading firms [1]. Group 2: Demand and Export Trends - The demand for polyester filament is supported by stable global textile and apparel demand, with domestic retail sales in clothing, shoes, and textiles increasing by 3.10% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, leading to a 5.37% increase in apparent consumption of polyester filament [2]. - Direct exports of polyester filament reached 1.7652 million tons in the first half of 2025, showing a robust year-on-year growth of 14.18% [2]. - The U.S. apparel market is recovering, with monthly sales figures showing positive growth since April 2024, which is expected to further bolster polyester filament demand [2]. Group 3: Profitability and Self-Regulation - The self-regulation initiative in May 2024, which included a "one-price" policy, initially improved polyester filament prices and profitability, with significant price increases noted in various filament types [3]. - However, the initiative faced challenges due to falling oil prices and low downstream operating rates, leading to a competitive pricing environment [3]. - Looking ahead to 2025, the removal of the "one-price" model is expected to allow for more flexible adjustments, with the industry maintaining strong profitability despite external pressures [3]. Group 4: Beneficiary Companies - Key beneficiaries in the polyester filament sector include Xinfengming (603225.SH), Tongkun (601233.SH), Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ), Hengyi Petrochemical (000703.SZ), and Dongfang Shenghong (000301.SZ) [4].

行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 化学纤维 沪深300 化学纤维 2025 年 07 月 24 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 涤纶长丝扩产周期已到尾声，新增产能集中于头部，龙头集中度再提升 涤纶长丝行业已告别高速扩产期，2014-2023 年行业产能从 2103 万吨增至 4128 万 吨，年均复合增长率达 7.78%；而 2024 年新增产能仅 97 万吨，同比增速骤降至 2.35%， 2025 年 155 万吨新增产能规划也仅由桐昆股份、新凤鸣两大龙头释放，且投产节奏 有序。近两年行业集中度也因此进一步提升，CR6 从 2023 年的 85%左右升至 2024 年的 87%，龙头企业对行业的主导能力进一步增强。展望 2026 年，行业潜在新增产 能依旧主要集中在桐昆股份和新凤鸣两大龙头。我们长期坚定看好，涤纶长丝行业 格局优化，盈利能力有望持续修复。 涤纶长丝下游纺服需求稳健，直接出口增长明显，带动长丝需求稳中向上 全球纺织服装需求稳健，对涤纶长丝需求起到良好支撑作用。国内方面，2025 年 1-6 月 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a strong rally, with the chemical ETF (516020) rising by 1.24% as of the latest update [1] - Key stocks such as Yipuli and Yara International have seen significant gains, with some stocks increasing over 3% [1] - The current situation in the chemical industry is reminiscent of the supply-side reforms of 2014-2015, suggesting a potential turning point for the sector [2] Group 2 - Domestic policies frequently emphasize supply-side requirements, while international factors like rising raw material costs and capacity exits in Europe and the U.S. add uncertainty to chemical supply [3] - The Chinese chemical industry is expected to leverage its competitive advantages in cost and technology to fill gaps in the international supply chain [3] - The implementation of new policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, including chemicals, is anticipated to lead to structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated capacities [3] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Index, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap stocks, providing an efficient way to invest in the sector [4] - The ETF includes a diverse range of chemical sub-sectors, allowing investors to capture various investment opportunities within the chemical industry [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the chemical industry [11] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing "involution" in the chemical industry, with multiple government meetings in 2024 highlighting the need to combat "malicious competition" and promote product quality [6][16] - The focus is on identifying potential investment opportunities within the chemical sector that can benefit from the government's "anti-involution" policies [17] Summary by Sections Why Focus on Chemical Industry Investment Opportunities? - The report outlines the government's commitment to addressing "involution" through various meetings and policy announcements, including the emphasis on supply-side structural reforms and the need for industry self-discipline [6][16] - The report suggests that the chemical industry can find opportunities under the current "anti-involution" policies, particularly through the identification of sectors with stable supply-demand dynamics [17] Which Sub-industries May Benefit from Anti-involution? - The report identifies several sub-industries likely to benefit from the anti-involution policies, including: 1. Comprehensive Chain: Chromium salts, caustic soda, industrial silicon, organic silicon 2. Agricultural Chain: Glyphosate, urea, methanol, sucralose/aspartame, MSG, lysine 3. Real Estate Chain: PVC, soda ash, titanium dioxide, MDI/TDI 4. Electronics Chain: Photoinitiators, refrigerants R134a/R32 5. Textile Chain: Dyes, viscose staple fiber, spandex, viscose filament, polyester filament 6. Automotive Chain: Polyester industrial yarn [7][8][20] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sub-industries that meet specific criteria such as slowing capacity growth, high operating rates, high concentration, minimal cost differences among leading companies, and products at the bottom of the price cycle [8][9] - Key sub-industries to watch include organic silicon, polyester filament, photoinitiators, glyphosate, industrial silicon, and MSG/amino acids, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [9][29]

Investment Rating - The report rates the petrochemical industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2][8]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is expected to gradually phase out old production capacities that are over 20 years old, driven by new regulations from the Ministry of Emergency Management and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [2]. - The refining sector has a high proportion of old facilities, with nearly 50% of the total refining capacity being over 20 years old, suggesting significant room for improvement in supply [2][3]. - The olefins market, particularly propylene, shows potential for recovery as 21% of its capacity is over 20 years old, and current market conditions are favorable due to reduced overseas supply [2]. - The polyester segment has fewer old facilities, but the recovery potential for polyester filament is significant, with 13% of its capacity being over 20 years old [2]. Summary by Sections Old Capacity Analysis - The report highlights that nearly 50% of refining capacity and 40% of capacity over 30 years old are considered old, indicating a substantial opportunity for supply-side improvements [2][3]. - Specific old capacity percentages for various petrochemical products include: - Refining: 49.3% (20 years), 39.4% (30 years) - Propylene: 21.2% (20 years), 10.1% (30 years) - Pure Benzene: 17.8% (20 years), 3.1% (30 years) [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the phase-out of old capacities [2]. - In the propylene sector, companies like Satellite Chemical and Baofeng Energy are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the market recovery [2]. - For polyester filament, Tongkun Co. is recommended as a key player to watch as the market conditions improve [2].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [1]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is experiencing a downturn due to falling oil prices, with expectations for recovery in the mid to downstream sectors in the future [1]. - The report highlights a significant decrease in crude oil prices in Q2 2025, with Brent crude averaging $66.7 per barrel, down 11.0% quarter-on-quarter and 21.5% year-on-year [5][6]. - Key companies in the industry are projected to report lower profits in Q2 2025 due to the impact of declining oil prices and inventory losses [5]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Trends - In Q2 2025, Brent crude oil averaged $66.7 per barrel, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.5% [5][6]. - Gasoline and diesel prices were adjusted three times upwards and two times downwards, with total reductions of 155 CNY/ton for gasoline and 150 CNY/ton for diesel [5]. Price Spread Analysis - The report notes that the price spreads for styrene, PX-naphtha, ethylene-naphtha, and crude oil catalytic cracking widened, while spreads for propane-propylene, butyl acrylate, and PTA-PX narrowed in Q2 2025 [5][7]. - The average price spread for ethylene from ethane was $567/ton, narrowing by $43/ton quarter-on-quarter [5][7]. Company Performance Forecasts - Major companies are expected to report the following net profits for Q2 2025: - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC): 40 billion CNY (YoY -7%, QoQ -15%) - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC): 30 billion CNY (YoY -25%, QoQ -18%) - Sinopec: 6 billion CNY (YoY -65%, QoQ -55%) - CNOOC Services: 1.2 billion CNY (YoY +25%, QoQ +35%) - Offshore Oil Engineering: 600 million CNY (YoY -17%, QoQ +11%) [5][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for polyester recovery, recommending attention to leading companies such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [5]. - It also highlights potential improvements in refining companies' costs and competitive positioning, recommending companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [5]. - The report indicates that the upstream exploration and development sector remains robust, with recommendations for offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Offshore Oil Engineering [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment rating [4]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is expected to see the exit of over 20-year-old outdated capacities, which could accelerate the recovery of the refining sector. The EIA has adjusted its oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to an average of $69 and $58 per barrel, respectively [4][10]. - Demand for oil is projected to increase by 700,000 to 800,000 barrels per day this year, with a notable decline in demand in Q2 2025. The IEA and OPEC have also provided similar forecasts for global oil demand growth [4][15]. - The report highlights the potential for improved profitability in the polyester sector, driven by supply-demand dynamics and the gradual exit of outdated capacities [21]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices decreased to $69.28 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 1.53%. The WTI price also fell by 1.62% to $67.34 per barrel [25]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. increased by 7 to 544, although this represents a year-on-year decrease of 42 rigs [39]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin increased to $14.50 per barrel, while the U.S. gasoline crack spread decreased to $21.14 per barrel [4]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as oil prices adjust downward, and the competitive landscape for leading refining companies is expected to benefit from the exit of overseas refineries and low domestic refining rates [21]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability is on the rise, while profits from polyester filament yarn have declined. The report notes that the overall performance of the polyester industry is average, with a need to monitor demand changes [4][21]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as the industry is expected to gradually improve [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends attention to leading refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and China Petroleum, as well as upstream exploration and production companies like CNOOC and China National Petroleum Corporation [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has outperformed the market, with the industry index rising by 1.8% from July 11 to July 18, compared to a 0.7% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [9][20] - The report highlights significant price increases in TDI, glyphosate, and glufosinate due to supply disruptions and rising demand, particularly in South America [6][31][33] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and improved demand due to recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy [17] - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term investment in core assets as the profitability of chemical products has likely bottomed out, suggesting a recovery in valuations [17][18] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index has shown a year-to-date increase of 10.8%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices by 5.4% and 4.5%, respectively [20][26] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 251 stocks rose while 162 fell during the reporting week, with notable gainers including Shangwei New Materials (+148.8%) and Dongcai Technology (+33.2%) [29][30] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - A fire at Covestro's TDI plant in Germany has led to significant supply disruptions, creating opportunities for price increases in TDI [31][32] - Glyphosate prices have increased to 25,500 CNY per ton, reflecting a 7.16% month-over-month rise, driven by reduced inventory levels [33] - New regulations on glufosinate are expected to constrain supply, potentially leading to price increases as the market adjusts [34]

2025 年 7 月 15 日，公司在全国银行间市场发行了 2025 年度第 六期科技创新债券，发行总额为 5 亿元。募集资金已于 2025 年 7 月 16 日全额到账。现将发行结果公告如下： 股票代码：601233 股票简称：桐昆股份 公告编号：2025-046 桐昆集团股份有限公司关于 2025年度第六期科技创新债券发行结果的公告 本公司董事会及董事会全体成员保证公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实、准确和完整承担法律责任。 2024 年 4 月 25 日，桐昆集团股份有限公司（以下简称"桐昆股 份"或"公司"）第九届董事会第八次会议审议通过了《关于发行超 短期融资券的议案》，上述议案经 2024 年 5 月 21 日召开的公司 2023 年年度股东大会审议批准。股东大会同意公司向中国银行间市场交易 商协会（以下简称"交易商协会"）申请注册发行不超过 60 亿元（人 民币，下同）的超短期融资券，并授权董事会办理发行的具体事项。 2024 年 8 月 30 日，经交易商协会《接受注册通知书》（中市协 注［2024］SCP273 号）核准，交易商协会决定接受公司超短期融资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chanhen (002895 CH), Yuntianhua (600096 CH), and NHU (002001 CH), while Skshu (603737 CH) and Yuhong (002271 CH) are rated "Hold" [3][4][8]. Core Insights - The phosphate sector is experiencing strong performance, with companies like NHU expecting a profit increase of 50-70% in 1H25, driven by resilient agricultural demand and rising prices [3]. - Chanhen and Yuntianhua are highlighted as top picks due to their earnings momentum and robust dividend profiles, with expected earnings growth of over 40% year-on-year for Chanhen in 2Q and around 10% for Yuntianhua [3][8]. - The report notes potential catalysts for growth, including rising fertilizer export prices and elevated phosphate rock prices during the peak planting season [3]. Summary by Sections Phosphate Sector - Phosphate companies are expected to lead the sector, with Chanhen and Yuntianhua showing strong earnings growth and dividend yields exceeding 6% in 2025 [3][8]. - NHU's profit guidance indicates overall sector strength, with a projected increase of 50-70% [3]. Building Materials - Skshu has issued positive profit guidance for 2Q, projecting earnings growth of 69-118% year-on-year, but the report maintains a "Hold" rating due to the growth being largely priced in [4]. - Yuhong is expected to face ongoing weakness in earnings due to challenges in new housing and engineering construction [4]. Commodity Chemicals - Satellite Chemical is facing headwinds with expected earnings declines due to turbulence in ethane/propane imports and operational risks [5]. - Wanhua and LB Group are also under pressure from anti-dumping duties affecting their core products, leading to a negative outlook for their 2Q earnings [5].