Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.097 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.93% [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 486 million yuan, showing a slight year-on-year growth of 0.04% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 20.54% [1] - The forecasted net profits for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.16 billion yuan, 3.09 billion yuan, and 3.79 billion yuan respectively [1] Industry Position - As the world's largest producer of polyester filament, the company maintains a leading position in the industry with a product range covering six categories of civilian polyester filament and over 1,000 varieties [1] - The company is actively advancing the construction of its gas head project, which is expected to be operational between the end of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027, thereby enhancing its full-chain integration from oil, coal, to gas [1] Investment Rating - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 16.3, 11.4, and 9.3 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a "buy" investment rating recommended [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a market price of RMB 14.35 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in its non-recurring net profit, with a year-on-year increase of 16.72% in the first half of 2025, despite a decrease in total revenue [3][4] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the polyester filament industry, maintaining a "Buy" rating [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of RMB 441.58 billion, a decrease of 8.41% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 10.97 billion, an increase of 2.93% [3][7] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of RMB 247.38 billion, down 8.73% year-on-year but up 27.38% quarter-on-quarter [7][9] - The company’s gross margin improved to 6.76%, up 0.57 percentage points year-on-year, with a net margin of 2.50%, also up 0.27 percentage points year-on-year [7][8] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be RMB 0.98, RMB 1.32, and RMB 1.59, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14.7x, 10.9x, and 9.0x [4][6] - The company’s total revenue is expected to reach RMB 94.746 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of -6.5% [6][10] Industry Positioning - The company is positioned as a leader in the polyester filament production industry, with a comprehensive supply chain that includes coal resources, enhancing its competitive advantage [7][8] - The company has successfully acquired high-quality coal resources, which will support its integrated production capabilities [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][26]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 shows stability and improvement, with a focus on the recovery of polyester filament profitability [3][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the optimization of the competitive landscape in the polyester filament industry and the support from its projects in Indonesia [12]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 44.158 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.41%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.097 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.93% [6]. - The company reported a net profit of 486 million yuan in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 0.04% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 20.5% [7]. - The gross profit margin for POY in H1 2025 was 8.11%, an increase of 2.50 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Product Segment Performance - For H1 2025, POY revenue was 27 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 8.11% [6]. - FDY revenue was 6.7 billion yuan, down 9% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 3.59% [6]. - DTY revenue was 4.2 billion yuan, down 3% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 7.19% [6]. Future Growth Prospects - The company is advancing new projects, including the completion of equipment installation for the Fujian Henghai CP1 project and the ongoing construction of the Xinjiang coal mine resource, which is expected to support future growth [10][12]. - The company forecasts operating revenues of 101.3 billion yuan, 105.3 billion yuan, and 111.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [11][12]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The polyester filament industry is expected to benefit from a reduction in competition due to slower supply expansion and a demand characterized by essential needs [8][12]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the polyester filament industry, which is anticipated to enhance its growth potential [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company, as a leading producer of polyester filament, is experiencing a recovery in profitability and is accelerating its full-chain layout [5][7] - Despite a decline in revenue, the company has shown improvements in operational cash flow management [6] - The company is implementing an integrated strategy, expanding its operations into upstream sectors such as PTA and coal mining [7][8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 441.58 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.41%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.97 billion yuan, an increase of 2.93% [4] Production and Sales - In the first half of 2025, the company produced 486.96 million tons of POY, 108.77 million tons of FDY, 58.56 million tons of DTY, and 76.75 million tons of PTA, with sales figures closely matching production [5] Financial Performance - The average selling prices for POY, FDY, DTY, and PTA decreased by 10%, 16%, 9%, and 19% respectively, impacting revenue [5] - The company’s operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities of -3 billion yuan, a notable reduction from -18.62 billion yuan in the previous year [6] Strategic Developments - The company is advancing its "four modernizations" strategy, focusing on integration, scale, intensification, and differentiation, and has successfully acquired high-quality coal resources in Turpan [7][8] Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21.60 billion yuan, 30.91 billion yuan, and 37.89 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16.3, 11.4, and 9.3 [9]

证券之星消息，9月8日炼化及贸易板块较上一交易日上涨0.44%，桐昆股份领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3826.84，上涨0.38%。深证成指报收于12666.84，上涨0.61%。炼化及贸易板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601233 | 桐昆股份 | 15.52 | 5.87% | 52.28万 | 7.95亿 | | 001316 | 润贝航科 | 34.66 | 4.46% | 3.69万 | · 1.26亿 | | 000703 | 恒逸石化 | 6.69 | 4.37% | 25.50万 | 1.68亿 | | 002493 | 荣盛石化 | 9.97 | 3.64% | 39.08万 | 3.87亿 | | 000301 | 东方盛虹 | 10.28 | 3.21% | 32.83万 | 3.36亿 | | 600346 | 恒力石化 | 17.70 | 2.91% | 35.59万 | 6.26亿 | | 000059 | 来错股份 | 5.34 ...

格隆汇9月8日｜中银证券研报指出，桐昆股份上半年实现归母净利润10.97亿元，同比增长2.93%；其 中，第二季度归母净利润4.86亿元，同比增长0.04%，环比降低20.54%。上半年涤纶长丝整体量增价 减，Q2销量提升带动营收环比高增。截至2025年中报，公司存货121.89亿元，较去年同期减少 13.81%，合同负债23.99亿元，较去年同期增长217.84%。上半年公司成功取得吐鲁番地区优质煤矿资 源，实现油头、气头、煤头的全品类覆盖。该煤矿储量达5亿吨，初始开采规模为500万吨/年，具备低 磷、低硫、低氯、低灰、高热值等优势。公司作为全产业链布局的涤纶长丝生产龙头，有望充分受益行 业景气度底部回暖，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 44.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.1 billion yuan, an increase of 2.9% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 24.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.4% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders in Q2 2025 was 490 million yuan, remaining stable year-on-year but down 20.5% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Production and Sales - The company has a production capacity of 13.5 million tons per year for polyester filament and 10.2 million tons per year for PTA, leading the industry in scale [2] - In H1 2025, the company sold 5.953 million tons of polyester filament, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, and PTA sales reached 825,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [2] - The gross margin for polyester filament in H1 2025 was 7.3%, an increase of 0.75 percentage points year-on-year, while PTA's gross margin was 0.6%, a decrease of 1.15 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 3: Strategic Developments - The company made a strategic breakthrough by acquiring high-quality coal mine resources in the Turpan region, with reserves of 500 million tons and an initial mining scale of 5 million tons per year [2] - This acquisition allows the company to cover the entire category from oil-based and gas-based to coal-based resources, marking a significant step in its strategic layout [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - The upcoming peak season in September and October, combined with industry "anti-involution," is expected to lead to marginal improvements in market conditions [3] - As of August 22, 2025, the operating rates for weaving and texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions have increased, indicating a recovery in demand [3] - The supply side is seeing increased concentration in the polyester filament industry, with the CR6 rising from approximately 85% in 2023 to 87% in 2024, which is expected to optimize the supply-demand balance [3][4] Group 5: Industry Trends - The expansion of production capacity in the polyester filament industry is slowing down, with a projected year-on-year decrease of 2.3% in total capacity for 2024 [4] - The expected new annual production capacity for 2025 is about 2 million tons, with a low growth rate anticipated for the following years [4] - The company is positioned to benefit from the rising market conditions in the polyester filament sector, with projected net profits of 2.74 billion, 3.44 billion, and 4.21 billion yuan for 2025-2027 respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 44.16 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.1 billion yuan, an increase of 2.9% year-on-year [2][6]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 24.74 billion yuan, down 8.7% year-on-year but up 27.4% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 490 million yuan, which was stable year-on-year but down 20.5% quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. - The company has successfully entered the coal sector, acquiring high-quality coal resources in the Turpan region, which marks a strategic shift from oil and gas to coal [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company sold 5.953 million tons of polyester filament, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, and 825,000 tons of PTA, an increase of 14.3% year-on-year [10]. - The gross margin for polyester filament was 7.3%, up 0.75 percentage points year-on-year, while the PTA gross margin was 0.6%, down 1.15 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Market Dynamics - The upcoming peak season in September and October is expected to improve market conditions, with increased operating rates in downstream sectors [10]. - The industry is experiencing a slowdown in capacity expansion, with a projected decrease in total capacity by 2.3% in 2024, leading to improved supply-demand dynamics [10]. Strategic Developments - The company has diversified its operations by entering the coal sector, which is expected to smooth out the cyclical nature of its business [10]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the recovery in the polyester filament market, with projected net profits of 2.74 billion yuan, 3.44 billion yuan, and 4.21 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" based on the performance of the industry index relative to the benchmark [136]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the "Golden September" season is approaching, leading to improved orders in the downstream long filament sector [1]. - The Brent crude oil average price for the week ending September 5, 2025, was $67.67 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 0.99% [2]. - Domestic and foreign refining project price differentials were tracked, with domestic projects at 2361.03 CNY/ton (-1.28%) and foreign projects at 1133.43 CNY/ton (+4.45%) [2]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - Geopolitical risks have increased due to attacks on oil tankers, while U.S. oil demand has decreased, leading to concerns about supply exceeding demand [1]. - Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at $65.5 and $61.9 per barrel, respectively, showing declines from the previous week [14]. - The domestic and international product price differentials have widened, with domestic diesel and gasoline prices slightly down [14]. Chemical Sector - The report indicates a mixed trend in refining product price differentials, with olefins showing slight improvement while aromatics have narrowed [1]. - Polyethylene prices fluctuated, while polypropylene prices remained stable with a slight widening of price differentials [53]. - EVA prices increased due to strong demand from the photovoltaic sector, with significant widening of price differentials [53]. Polyester Sector - The cost structure for the polyester industry has shifted downwards, but demand for long filaments has improved as the peak season approaches [1]. - The average price for polyester long filaments has increased, leading to improved profitability [104]. - The report notes a decrease in supply for long filaments, with domestic and foreign orders showing slight increases [104]. Major Refining Companies - The stock performance of six major refining companies was tracked, with notable changes in their stock prices over the past week and month [124]. - The report indicates that the refining index has increased by 41.24% since September 4, 2017, outperforming the broader market indices [125].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 44.158 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.097 billion yuan, an increase of 2.9% year-on-year [5] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 24.738 billion yuan, down 8.7% year-on-year but up 27.4% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 486 million yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.04% year-on-year but a decrease of 20.5% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The company’s long filament sales showed significant growth quarter-on-quarter, with POY, FDY, and DTY sales increasing by 42.5%, 29.2%, and 22.7% respectively [6] - The company is optimistic about the price elasticity of polyester filament as the peak season approaches, with expectations of demand recovery [6] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s gross profit margin and net profit margin for Q2 2025 were 6.0% and 2.0%, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points for both metrics [6] - The company’s net investment income for Q2 2025 was 175 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14 million yuan [6] - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.025 billion yuan, 2.936 billion yuan, and 3.377 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 68.5%, 45.0%, and 15.0% [6][8] Industry Outlook - The company is expanding its upstream layout in the coal sector, having secured high-quality coal resources in the Turpan region, with an initial mining scale of 5 million tons per year [6] - The overall operating rate of the industry is high at 91.6%, indicating a favorable environment for price recovery in the polyester filament market [6] - The report anticipates a significant slowdown in the growth rate of polyester filament capacity, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) decrease from 7.1% (2017-2023) to 1.5% (2024-2026) [6]