| A H | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股代码：601390 股代码：00390 | | | | H | A | | | 股简称：中国中铁 | 股简称：中国中铁 | | | | | 公告编号：临 | | | | 2024-041 | 中国中铁股份有限公司 第六届董事会第三次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误 导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法 律责任。 一、董事会会议召开情况 中国中铁股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公司"）第六届董 事会第三次会议〔属 2024 年第 8 次临时会议（2024 年度总第 11 次）〕 通知和议案等书面材料于 2024 年 9 月 26 日以专人及发送电子邮件方式送 达各位董事，会议于 2024 年 9 月 30 日以通讯表决方式召开。本次会议应 参加表决董事 7 名，实际参加表决董事 7 名。会议的召开符合有关法律、 行政法规、部门规章、规范性文件和《公司章程》的规定。 二、董事会会议审议情况 经过有效表决，会议审议通过了以下议案： （一）审议通过《关于解聘李新生中国中铁股份有限 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年09月12日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB 544.522 billion, a decrease of 7.8% compared to RMB 590.766 billion in the same period of 2023[7]. - Gross profit for the first half of 2024 was RMB 46.757 billion, down 8.2% from RMB 50.906 billion in the previous year[7]. - Profit before tax decreased by 14.9% to RMB 19.560 billion compared to RMB 22.972 billion in the same period last year[7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 14.279 billion, a decrease of 12.1% from RMB 16.239 billion in the first half of 2023[7]. - The company reported a total comprehensive income of RMB 15,594 million for the period, down from RMB 18,646 million, a decrease of 16.0%[162]. - The company reported a total of RMB 1,533,147 million in total liabilities as of June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 1,369,536 million as of December 31, 2023[179]. - The profit attributable to the company's owners for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 14,279 million, compared to RMB 15,669 million for the same period in 2023, showing a decrease of 8.9%[166]. Revenue Breakdown - Infrastructure construction revenue decreased by 7.9% to RMB 484.838 billion from RMB 526.649 billion year-on-year[7]. - Real estate development revenue saw a significant decline of 29.9%, dropping to RMB 14.843 billion from RMB 21.187 billion[7]. - Infrastructure construction contributed 84.4% of total revenue, with revenue of RMB 484.838 billion, a decrease of 7.9% year-on-year[74]. - Revenue from infrastructure construction contracts was RMB 473,047 million, while equipment manufacturing and sales generated RMB 12,024 million for the same period[180]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased by 9.6% to RMB 2,004.424 billion as of June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 1,829.290 billion at the end of 2023[8]. - Current assets rose by 12.8% to RMB 1,134.794 billion from RMB 1,005.695 billion at the end of 2023[8]. - Total liabilities increased by 11.9% to RMB 1,533.147 billion compared to RMB 1,369.536 billion at the end of 2023[8]. - The company's total assets as of June 30, 2024, included a significant portion of property, plant, and equipment, which is crucial for its operational capacity and future growth strategies[198]. Shareholder Information - The total number of shares before the recent change was 24,752,195,983, which decreased to 24,750,629,817 after the change, reflecting a reduction of 1,566,166 shares[10]. - The total number of shareholders as of the end of the reporting period was 475,528[13]. - The largest shareholder, China Railway Engineering Corporation, holds 11,623,119,890 shares, representing 46.96% of total shares[14]. - The total number of unrestricted circulating shares increased from 24,570,929,283 to 24,626,840,121, reflecting an increase of 55,910,838 shares[10]. Employee and Labor Costs - The group's labor cost expenditure for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 27.654 billion[32]. - As of June 30, 2024, the total number of employees in the group was 293,192[32]. - The breakdown of employees by professional composition includes 29,732 production personnel, 12,654 sales personnel, and 190,622 technical personnel[33]. Investment and Capital Expenditures - Capital expenditures for the first half of 2024 totaled RMB 25.309 billion, a decrease of 3.7% from RMB 26.270 billion in the same period last year[80]. - The company invested CNY 1.2 billion in the development of a 2,000-ton self-elevating offshore wind power installation platform, which is now operational and has international leading installation capabilities[58]. Market and Economic Conditions - In the first half of 2024, China's GDP reached 61.7 trillion RMB, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment increased by 3.9% to 24.54 trillion RMB[36]. - The domestic real estate development investment in the first half of 2024 was 525.29 billion RMB, down 10.1% year-on-year, with residential investment decreasing by 10.4% to 398.83 billion RMB[40]. Environmental and Social Responsibility - The company aims to enhance its ecological environment protection efforts and has implemented 15 key measures to promote green low-carbon development[147]. - The company reported a 3.17% decrease in comprehensive energy consumption per RMB 10,000 of operating revenue compared to the same period last year[149]. - The company provided over 1,500 training sessions for grassroots cadres and trained more than 650 rural revitalization leaders in the first half of 2024[150]. Corporate Governance and Compliance - The company has appointed Deloitte Huayong as the auditor for the 2024 financial statements and internal control audit[115]. - The company strictly adheres to its commitments and has no undisclosed legal violations or penalties during the reporting period[118]. - The company has complied with all legal and regulatory requirements during the reporting period[118].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 6.25 CNY for the next six months [3][6]. Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2024 was 544.52 billion CNY, a year-over-year decrease of 7.83%, with a net profit of 14.28 billion CNY, down 12.08% year-over-year [1][6]. - The infrastructure business is under pressure, while emerging businesses are growing rapidly, and overseas business gross margins are improving [1][2]. - The company has signed new contracts worth 166.33 billion CNY in emerging businesses, a 32.1% increase year-over-year, indicating potential for future profit contributions [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 544.52 billion CNY, with a year-over-year decline of 7.83%. The net profit was 14.28 billion CNY, down 12.08% year-over-year [1]. - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 9.00%, a slight decrease of 0.03 percentage points year-over-year. The overseas business gross margin improved significantly to 7.33%, an increase of 2.35 percentage points year-over-year [1][6]. Business Segments - The infrastructure construction business saw a revenue decline of 6.76% year-over-year, primarily due to significant drops in road and municipal business revenues, which fell by 9.82% and 7.97% respectively [1]. - Emerging business segments, including water conservancy, clean energy, and ecological protection, have shown strong growth, with new contracts increasing by 32.1% year-over-year [2]. Future Outlook - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting revenues of 1,203.84 billion CNY, 1,288.11 billion CNY, and 1,365.39 billion CNY, with respective year-over-year growth rates of 4.7%, 7.0%, and 6.0% [6][7]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 30.90 billion CNY, 33.16 billion CNY, and 35.31 billion CNY, with expected year-over-year growth rates of -7.7%, 7.3%, and 6.5% [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 543.285 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.278 billion yuan, down 12.08% year-on-year [4] - The engineering construction business faced pressure, while resource utilization showed significant growth, contributing to the company's second growth curve [5] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 was 543.285 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 7.84%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 14.278 billion yuan, down 12.08% year-on-year [4] - The main business gross margin was 9%, a slight decrease of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year, with domestic business gross margin at 9.11% and overseas business gross margin at 7.33% [6] Business Segments - The engineering construction segment, which is the core business, generated revenue of 473.048 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.76%, accounting for 87% of total revenue [5] - The resource utilization segment achieved revenue of 4.048 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.19%, with stable operations in mineral resource development [5] Contracting and Future Outlook - The company signed new contracts worth 1.08 trillion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 15.3%, with domestic contracts down 16.2% and overseas contracts down 2.3% [8] - The company expects revenues of 1.2 trillion yuan for 2024, with net profits of 32.5 billion yuan, corresponding to a dynamic P/E ratio of 4.11 times [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 544.52 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%. The infrastructure business revenue was 473.05 billion yuan, down 6.76% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 14.278 billion yuan, a decline of 12.08% year-on-year [1]. - The company experienced a slight increase in expense ratios, with a gross margin of 8.84%, down 0.01 percentage points year-on-year, and an operating expense ratio of 4.81%, up 0.15 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - New contract signing decreased by 15.3% year-on-year to 1,078.5 billion yuan, influenced by urbanization and local debt pressures. However, the company’s backlog of contracts increased by 5.9% compared to the end of 2023, reaching 6,222.87 billion yuan [1]. Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 33.593 billion yuan, 35.658 billion yuan, and 38.861 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 4.24, 4.00, and 3.67 [2][3]. - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1,297.51 billion yuan, 1,357.62 billion yuan, and 1,463.98 billion yuan, with growth rates of 2.69%, 4.63%, and 7.83% respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Railway (601390) [2] Core Views - The company's net profit for H1 2024 decreased by 12.08% year-on-year, falling short of expectations, primarily due to a slowdown in revenue growth [2] - The company has adjusted its annual new contract signing target to 2.85 trillion yuan and revenue target to 1.23 trillion yuan, focusing on quality improvement amid a challenging external environment [2] - Despite a weak investment environment, the company is expected to maintain strong asset quality and valuation recovery potential [2] Financial Summary - For H1 2024, total revenue was 544.52 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.84% year-on-year, with a net profit of 14.28 billion yuan [2][3] - The company's gross margin and net profit margin for H1 2024 were 8.84% and 2.62%, respectively, showing slight declines compared to the previous year [2] - Operating cash flow for H1 2024 saw a net outflow of 69.3 billion yuan, an increase in outflow by 39.4 billion yuan year-on-year [2] Segment Performance - Infrastructure construction revenue for H1 2024 was 473 billion yuan, down 6.76% year-on-year, while overseas business revenue grew by 6.11% [2] - The real estate development segment experienced a significant revenue decline of 30.8% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 12.6% [2] - Domestic business revenue decreased by 8.63% year-on-year, while international business showed resilience with a 6.11% increase [2] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 31.4 billion yuan, 32.76 billion yuan, and 34.04 billion yuan for the respective years [2][3] - The projected growth rates for net profit are -6.2% in 2024, followed by positive growth of 4.3% and 3.9% in 2025 and 2026 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance over the next six months [4][6]. Core Views - The company is accelerating its diversified transformation and upgrading, focusing on new business lines that are expected to drive growth momentum [1]. - Despite a decline in traditional business revenues, the mining resources segment remains stable and is anticipated to contribute positively to overall performance [2]. - The company is expected to see steady improvements in growth quality, with projections for net profit from 2024 to 2026 being 35.4 billion, 37.1 billion, and 38.9 billion yuan respectively [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 543.285 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.84%, and a net profit of 14.278 billion yuan, down 12.08% [1]. - The revenue breakdown for traditional businesses in H1 2024 shows infrastructure construction at 473.048 billion yuan (-6.76%), design consulting at 8.965 billion yuan (-4.11%), equipment manufacturing at 12.024 billion yuan (-9.68%), and real estate development at 14.481 billion yuan (-30.78%) [2]. - The gross profit margin for H1 2024 was 8.8%, a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points year-on-year, with net profit margin at 2.88%, down 0.21 percentage points [3]. - The company’s cash flow from operations was negative at -69.332 billion yuan, reflecting an increase in cash outflow by 39.365 billion yuan year-on-year [3]. Business Segment Analysis - New contracts signed in emerging businesses reached 166.33 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.1%, indicating a strong push towards diversification [1]. - The mining resources segment showed stable performance, with production figures for key minerals such as copper at 150,200 tons (+1.3%) and cobalt at 2,800 tons (+13.5%), while other minerals like lead and zinc saw significant declines [2]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1,347.179 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 6.62%, and is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory through 2026 [5][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 1.35 yuan in 2023 to 1.57 yuan in 2026, reflecting a gradual improvement in profitability [5][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of HKD 4.90 and RMB 8.94 [2][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue and net profit decline of 7.8% and 12.1% year-on-year for the first half of 2024, leading to a revision of net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [2][3]. - The company has a strong copper resource base, which is expected to benefit from rising resource prices, justifying a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 7x for A-shares and 3.5x for H-shares [2][3]. - The company’s gross margin for the infrastructure segment improved slightly, while overseas business showed steady growth despite domestic challenges [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 543.3 billion and a net profit of RMB 14.3 billion, reflecting a decline of 7.8% and 12.1% year-on-year respectively [2][3]. - The gross margin for the infrastructure segment was reported at 9.0%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.03 percentage points [3]. - The company’s operating cash flow showed a significant outflow of RMB 69.3 billion, indicating a decline in cash flow performance [4]. Business Segments - The infrastructure segment generated revenue of RMB 473 billion, down 6.76% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 7.9% [3]. - Emerging business orders grew rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 32.1% in new contracts, primarily driven by water conservancy and clean energy projects [5][6]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue is projected to decline slightly in 2024 to RMB 1,234.1 billion, with a net profit forecast of RMB 31.6 billion [6][16]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at RMB 1.28, with a PE ratio of 4.51 [6][16]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to decrease to 9.14% in 2024 [6][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Railway (601390.SH) [3] Core Views - In Q2 2024, the company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit, with total revenue of 544.5 billion yuan, down 7.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.28 billion yuan, down 12.1% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to slow issuance of local government bonds and special bonds, which has constrained infrastructure funding [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the accelerated issuance of special bonds and national bonds in the second half of the year, leading to a marginal improvement in performance due to a low base effect [1] - The gross profit margin for H1 2024 was 9.04%, a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points year-on-year, with the infrastructure segment showing some improvement in profitability [1] - The company’s new contract signing amount for H1 2024 was 1,078.5 billion yuan, down 15% year-on-year, with a notable decline in traditional infrastructure sectors [1] - The resource segment, particularly copper, is expected to provide profit elasticity, with the average LME copper price rising by 8% since the beginning of 2024, potentially enhancing the resource segment's profit contribution [1] Financial Summary - For H1 2024, the company reported a net cash outflow from operating activities of 69.3 billion yuan, a significant increase of 39.4 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, primarily due to delayed payments from project owners [1] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 1.26 yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 4.6 times [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 31.1 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7% [2]