中金公司 "对等关税"后的市场 20250407 摘要 Q&A 对等关税对全球市场的影响是什么？ 对等关税对全球市场的影响显著且复杂。首先，资产波动剧烈，情绪宣泄甚至 恐慌明显。具体来看，对等关税超预期主要体现在几个方面：一是所有贸易伙 伴不加区分地加征 10%的基线关税；二是部分贸易伙伴的关税对等，但实际加 征更多，如中国已被加征两轮 20%，理论上不应再被加征，但由于非关税贸易 壁垒和其他因素，反而被加更多。此外，还有 800 美元的小额包裹和汽车行业 的关税。这些措施使得美国整体有效税率达到近 100 年来的高点，即至少 23% • 美国有效税率因关税政策大幅提升至近百年高点，至少达 23%以上，对所 有贸易伙伴统一加征 10%基线关税，部分贸易伙伴如中国实际加征更多， 叠加小额包裹及汽车行业关税，导致市场反应剧烈。 • 市场情绪受冲击表现为避险交易，恒生科技、美股纳斯达克等估值较高股 票遭抛售，美股、美元下跌，债券和黄金上涨。流动性冲击显现，所有资 产包括避险资产下跌，美元上涨，投资者需现金应对赎回或风控减仓。 • 未来货币政策框架需关注国内流动性环境与政策空间，各国央行可能采取 措施对冲关税带来的市 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 21.3 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.21%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.7 billion yuan, down 7.50% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to benefit as a leading brokerage in a competitive industry, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 1.26 yuan, 1.51 yuan, and 1.72 yuan respectively [4]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue from brokerage, investment banking, asset management, credit, and proprietary trading for 2024 was 4.3 billion yuan, 3.1 billion yuan, 1.2 billion yuan, -1.4 billion yuan, and 10.1 billion yuan respectively, showing declines of 6%, 16%, 0.3%, 4%, and 4% year-on-year [1]. - The stock business revenue fell by 15% to 4.4 billion yuan, while the profit margin increased by 1.72 percentage points to 74.76% [2]. - Fixed income revenue increased by 47% to 3.7 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 73.59%, driven by higher returns from debt investments [2]. Asset Management and Wealth Management - The asset management department's business scale reached 552 billion yuan by the end of 2024, with a total of 783 products managed [2]. - The company's wealth management product scale grew to nearly 370 billion yuan, with a total customer base of approximately 8.5 million, reflecting a 25% increase year-on-year [3]. IPO and Underwriting Performance - The domestic IPO business faced challenges, with the main underwriting IPO scale dropping to 3.59 billion yuan, a decrease of 89% year-on-year [3]. - In contrast, the company maintained a leading position in overseas underwriting, with a total of 3.835 billion USD in Hong Kong IPOs [3]. Financial Projections - The report projects total revenue for 2025 to be 26.5 billion yuan, with net profit expected to reach 7.3 billion yuan [12]. - The company's total assets are forecasted to grow from 674.7 billion yuan in 2024 to 708.5 billion yuan in 2025 [12].

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for 2024, achieving operating income of 21.333 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.694 billion yuan [1] - The investment banking sector, particularly in Hong Kong and the US, showed remarkable performance with substantial year-on-year growth in IPO underwriting amounts [1][5] - The company has maintained its leading position in the M&A market in China for ten consecutive years, completing 73 transactions in 2024 with a total deal value of approximately 50.588 billion USD [7] - Wealth management services have also seen impressive growth, with over 1.7 million new accounts opened in 2024 and a significant increase in the penetration of innovative trading services [9][10] Investment Banking Performance - The investment banking revenue reached 3.095 billion yuan in 2024, with the company ranking first in the market for underwriting Chinese enterprises' global IPOs [4] - The company completed 28 IPOs for Chinese enterprises, raising a total of 4.424 billion USD, while also maintaining a strong presence in A-share IPOs despite a decrease in the number of new listings [4][5] - The Hong Kong IPO underwriting amount was 3.835 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 212.81%, while the US IPO underwriting amount reached 0.87 billion USD, up 135.14% [5][6] M&A Business - The company has been the top player in the Chinese M&A market for a decade, completing 73 transactions in 2024, with domestic deals accounting for 59 transactions worth approximately 31.789 billion USD [7] - Notable transactions include strategic restructuring for state-owned enterprises and significant A-share acquisitions [7] Wealth Management Growth - The wealth management division has successfully transformed, with a focus on technology and innovative investment products, leading to a product scale of nearly 370 billion yuan [9] - The company has introduced various investment products, including the "50" series, which have seen a 139% increase in holdings compared to the end of 2023 [9][10] International Expansion - The company has accelerated its internationalization strategy, opening a representative office in Vietnam and advancing the establishment of a branch in the UAE [12] - The company has a well-established presence in major global financial centers and aims to enhance its international influence through various business lines [11][12]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年3月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國國際金融股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年4月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03908 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,903,714,428 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 1,903,714,428 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 1,903,714,428 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 1,903,714,428 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | ...

过去一年，在复杂多变市场形势下，证券行业迎来新考验。A股股权融资市场遇冷，投行业务集体承 压； "9·24"行情启动后，二级市场交投活跃，带动券商四季度业绩普遍回暖。 Wind数据显示，截至目前，已披露2024年报的21家A股上市券商，去年第四季度营收、净利均实现环比 增长，手续费及佣金收入环比增长均超过40%，推动全年业绩修复。 其中，中金公司2024年四季度贡献全年半数净利润。根据年报披露，2024年，中金公司年末资产总额 6747.16亿元，实现营业收入213.33亿元，实现归母净利润人民币56.94亿元。 年报数据显示，2024年中金公司实现手续费及佣金净收入108.52亿元，自营业务收入（按"投资收益+公 允价值变动-对联营/合营企业投资收益"计算）101.21亿元。 其中，第四季度实现手续费及佣金净收入37.09亿元，同比增长20%、环比增长52%。除投行业务手续费 净收入小幅同比下滑4%外，经纪、资管业务手续费净收入分别同比增长68%、41%。经纪、投行、资管 业务手续费净收入分别环比增长66%、50%、44%。 从财富管理业务来看，中金公司去年通过全渠道、多场景获客模式，管理总客户数接近850 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Zhongguancun Forum focuses on "New Quality Productivity and Global Technology Cooperation," emphasizing the role of green finance in international development [1] - CICC (China International Capital Corporation) has supported over 390 billion yuan in green-related transactions in 2024, including the establishment of the first "Sustainable Development + Transformation + Two New" themed bond basket in the interbank market [1] - CICC has collaborated with Shanghai Environment Energy Exchange to launch a "Low Carbon Transition + ESG" investment evaluation system, providing technical support for the G20 Sustainable Finance Working Group for two consecutive years [1] Group 2 - Key experts, including CICC's Chief Economist Peng Wensheng, discussed the core issues of dual carbon strategy and green finance, highlighting the importance of comprehensive policy innovation and external cooperation for China's green industry [2] - Peng Wensheng identified three factors contributing to the success of China's green industry: economies of scale in manufacturing, market competition driving efficiency, and effective public policy intervention [2] - The roundtable discussion led by CICC's Managing Director Cheng Daming focused on the application of green finance and ESG principles in the real economy, exploring how ecological protection and innovation investment can promote sustainable development [3] Group 3 - CICC aims to build a multi-layered and comprehensive international cooperation system for green finance, facilitating the "going out" of green capital and supporting domestic financing for advanced green technologies [3] - The company plans to attract international green capital by issuing green bonds in international capital markets, aiding domestic green technology development [3] - CICC is committed to actively engaging in bilateral and multilateral cooperation in third-party markets to provide financial support for global green technology collaboration [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the semiconductor equipment industry, highlighting an overall upward trend in orders and revenue growth for key players in the sector. Core Insights - Semiconductor equipment manufacturers are experiencing an increase in orders, driven by new product developments and rising wafer processing rates, which in turn boost material demand [1][3] - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape for special materials like silicon carbide, with some product prices recovering [1] - The emergence of new suppliers in advanced packaging equipment, particularly in 2.5D, 3D, and 3.5D technologies, is noted, with domestic projects propelling certain companies to prominence [1][3] Summary by Sections North Huachuang's Revenue and R&D Investment - North Huachuang anticipates Q1 2025 revenue of 7 to 8 billion yuan, with a 30% increase in chip orders, projecting total chip orders for the year at approximately 38 billion yuan [4] - The company is actively investing in R&D across ion implantation and electroplating, planning to expand production by 3,000 to 4,000 units annually [4] North Huachuang's Acquisition of New Yao Wei - North Huachuang is set to complete the acquisition of New Yao Wei by June 2025, which is expected to add around 1 billion yuan to its consolidated revenue [5] New Source Energy's Development in Cleaning Equipment - New Source Energy reported over 2 billion yuan in revenue from chemical cleaning agents, with total revenue projected to reach around 1.2 billion yuan in 2025 [6] Wan Ye Enterprise's Progress in Ion Implantation - Wan Ye Enterprise's subsidiary, Kaisi Tong, has received approximately 54 new orders and aims to launch a prototype of its medium-energy ion implantation equipment by mid-2025 [9] Micro Company’s Latest Developments - Micro Company reported revenue of about 9.1 billion yuan in 2024, with a 30% year-on-year growth, and expects similar growth rates in 2025 [15] Trends in Storage Equipment - The storage equipment sector is expected to see significant growth, with domestic companies enhancing their competitiveness, particularly in high aspect ratio etching equipment [16] New Products from Tuo Jing Technology - Tuo Jing Technology has launched new products including advanced packaging laser glass equipment and PLD devices, with a significant increase in orders anticipated by 2025 [17] Huahai Qingke's Progress in CMP Equipment - Huahai Qingke has introduced new CMP equipment and is expected to achieve a 30% growth in revenue this year, driven by collaborations with traditional and advanced packaging companies [18] Jiangfeng Electronics' Target Markets - Jiangfeng Electronics holds about 20% of the global target market share, with strong demand driven by AI and semiconductor manufacturing expansions [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards traditional strong assets like US stocks and bonds, while highlighting opportunities in safe-haven assets such as gold and Chinese government bonds [2][8][20]. Core Insights - The global economy and financial markets are experiencing significant volatility in 2025, driven by trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to a favorable outlook for safe-haven assets [2][8]. - The US stock market, which had previously outperformed, is now facing high valuations and increased policy uncertainty, prompting investors to reassess risk preferences [3][6][9]. - The report indicates a rising probability of a US economic recession, exceeding 50%, due to factors such as stagflation risks and high inflation [10][11][16]. - China's economic competitiveness in technology and manufacturing is improving, but the real estate market remains weak, impacting overall economic growth [30][31][35]. Summary by Sections Global Economic Outlook - The report emphasizes that global trade tensions are suppressing economic growth, with expectations of a downward trend in global interest rates as central banks respond to these challenges [2][23]. - The US economy is under pressure from high inflation, high interest rates, and rising wages, which could lead to reduced corporate profitability and economic cooling [16][17]. US Market Analysis - The US stock market's high valuations and policy uncertainties are leading to adjustments, with investors shifting focus to European and Asian markets [3][9]. - The report highlights the need for investors to diversify their strategies, moving away from a simplistic buy-and-hold approach in US equities [9][19]. Chinese Economic Dynamics - The report notes that while China's technology and manufacturing sectors are gaining strength, the overall economic contribution from new industries remains low, with traditional sectors still dominating [30][34]. - The real estate market's ongoing weakness, particularly in new construction, is expected to have a prolonged negative impact on China's economic growth [31][33]. Investment Strategies - The report advocates for a diversified investment strategy that includes safe-haven assets and defensive sectors, as traditional strong assets face headwinds [8][9][20]. - It suggests that the issuance of special government bonds in China is aimed at stimulating consumption, particularly in durable goods, but warns of potential dependency on such policies [37][39]. Interest Rate and Debt Market - The report indicates that US debt yields are expected to decline as the Federal Reserve may need to lower rates in response to economic cooling [19][20]. - It also highlights the importance of managing the balance between fiscal expansion and maintaining economic stability, particularly in light of rising government debt levels [13][14][18].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook for the bond market in 2025, suggesting potential opportunities similar to those observed in 2023 [2][9]. Core Insights - The bond market in 2025 is expected to experience fluctuations but is not anticipated to end the bull market, with a focus on monetary policy changes and external demand [5][9]. - The economic narrative of "East Rising, West Falling" is highlighted as a key driver for both 2023 and 2025, emphasizing the need to monitor differences in external demand, domestic consumption, inflation, and financing needs [3][9]. - The report discusses the impact of the real estate market, noting a divergence between second-hand and first-hand housing transactions, with second-hand sales benefiting from policy support and improved demand [12][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government fiscal policy in supporting the economy, particularly in the context of rising debt levels and the need for effective consumption stimulation measures [28][29]. Summary by Sections Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to continue its bullish trend, driven by factors such as declining interest rates and the ongoing economic recovery [16][41]. - The report suggests that the bond market's performance is closely linked to the real estate sector's health, with new construction activity declining significantly [13][14]. Economic Conditions - The report highlights the challenges posed by external factors, including U.S.-China trade tensions and a weakening U.S. economy, which are expected to exert pressure on China's exports [19][20]. - Domestic consumption is also under scrutiny, with rising savings rates and declining consumer confidence impacting overall demand [21][23]. Real Estate Market - The real estate market is characterized by a split performance, with second-hand homes seeing better sales compared to new properties, driven by improvement needs and policy support [12][15]. - The report notes that the decline in new construction activity is a leading indicator that may further depress real estate investment [14]. Fiscal Policy and Monetary Conditions - The report underscores the significance of fiscal policy in the current economic landscape, particularly in light of rising debt levels and the need for effective measures to stimulate consumption [28][29]. - It also discusses the necessity for monetary policy adjustments, particularly in lowering short-term interest rates to alleviate current market distortions [40].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 21.33 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 7.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.694 billion yuan, also down by 7.5% year-on-year. However, Q4 showed a strong recovery with a revenue of 7.884 billion yuan, up 42.7% year-on-year and 73.7% quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of 2.836 billion yuan, up 83.2% year-on-year and 350.2% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company maintains a leading position in investment banking and international business, with a focus on transforming wealth management and a solid leverage level [1][2] - The wealth management segment has seen an increase in managed assets, reaching 3.18 trillion yuan, with innovative products leading the industry [3] - The company has successfully expanded its international business, with overseas revenue accounting for 24.88% of total income [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 21.33 billion yuan, down 7.2% from the previous year, and a net profit of 5.694 billion yuan, also down 7.5% year-on-year. The Q4 performance was significantly better, with a revenue of 7.884 billion yuan, marking a 42.7% increase year-on-year and a 73.7% increase quarter-on-quarter [1][5] - The company’s financial assets totaled 371.7 billion yuan at year-end, with a diversified investment structure [2] Investment Banking - The company led the market in serving Chinese enterprises for global IPOs, completing 28 deals and raising 4.424 billion USD, ranking first in the market. It also ranked fourth in domestic bond underwriting [2] Wealth Management - The wealth management product scale increased to 370 billion yuan, with innovative products such as "China 50" and "Public Fund 50" reaching 87 billion yuan, maintaining a leading position in the industry [3] International Business - The company has established a matrix management structure to enhance its international business, with overseas revenue contributing significantly to overall income [3] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026, expecting net profits of 6.062 billion yuan and 6.520 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting confidence in its business innovation and market position [4]