人民财讯11月18日电，中金发布商业地产2026年展望，认为以可持续的商业地产租金收入利润为主体的 个股仍然是兼备成长性和股息率的优质绝对收益型选项，中金判断相关股票在2026年起的2—3年维度有 望实现5%—10%的可派息租赁利润增长，同时提供5%—6%的股息收益回报。开发业务体量占比仍较大 的综合型房企股价则在短周期维度更多取决于开发逻辑；长周期资产价值视角下，部分个股体内商业资 产价值相对于REITs和一级市场仍有一定重估空间。 ...

人民财讯11月18日电，中金公司（601995）发布物业管理2026年展望，认为长期而言，行业内外部环境 变化正推动物企经营模型向"量价温和变化、现金流相对稳定"这一更为健康可持续的方向逐步发展；短 期来看，覆盖企业仍处于规模扩张推动收入利润温和成长、现金回款边际略有承压、分红意愿持续提升 的发展阶段。推荐业绩稳、现金流优、股息收益率高的优质标的。 ...

近期，中信证券、中金公司、国泰海通证券、中信建投证券、华泰证券、东吴证券等多家头部券商陆续 发布2026年A股投资策略报告，"慢牛行情"成为市场一致预期。 2026年，盈利驱动将成为新主角，投资机会也将从2025年的科技"一骑绝尘"转向2026年的多主线。 当中信证券提出"角逐全球定价权"，东吴证券给出"2026年6月风格切换窗口"，中信建投预警"科技板块 结构性回调"，各家券商在慢牛共识之时，正为投资者描绘一条与今年截然不同的投资路径。 慢牛格局延续 自2024年9月24日政策组合拳出台后，A股市场进入新一轮牛市行情。2025年中国股票在全球市场中表 现优异，上证指数创出十年新高。 多家券商指出，2026年市场有望在慢牛格局中进一步演绎，但驱动力的切换将成为核心特征。 中信证券鲜明提出，A股将迈向"低波动慢牛"，"全球敞口"成为其研判2026年A股的核心变量。其报告 指出："A股不仅是中国的A股，也是全球的A股。"数据显示，当前高境外敞口企业贡献了全A非金融板 块39%的利润和35%的市值，足以撬动整体行情。中信证券认为，未来A股基本面需置于全球需求视角 下审视，中企在全球价值链中的份额优势正转化为定价权， ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the 2026 investment strategy meeting held by CICC is "Seizing Opportunities and Planning for the Future," focusing on market themes and attracting over 4,500 participants [1] - CICC's Chief Strategy Analyst, Miao Yanliang, indicates that the US-China economic relationship has entered a "fragile balance," suggesting that while both countries have enough leverage for negotiations, tail risks still exist [2][3] - Miao believes that the current gold bull market may not be fully realized, presenting good medium to long-term allocation value, especially in light of the accelerating reconstruction of the international monetary order [2] Group 2 - Miao highlights that during technological revolutions, growth often outpaces value, but the current AI revolution may see more frequent style rotations in the stock market due to increased uncertainty in economic activities [3] - The analysis of market styles shows that since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, US stocks have consistently outperformed value stocks, while non-US markets have seen value outperform growth, indicating that not all economies will benefit equally from technological advancements [3] - CICC's Chief Analyst for Nonferrous Metals, Qi Ding, points out that the deepening trend of de-globalization and high US interest rates are leading to significant inflows into gold ETFs, reflecting a "de-dollarization" trend [4] Group 3 - Qi anticipates that basic metals like copper, aluminum, and tin will perform well in 2026 due to rising demand from AI, electricity, new energy, and high-end manufacturing, coupled with insufficient capital expenditure on the supply side [4] - The report suggests that strategic metals such as cobalt, natural uranium, tungsten, rare earths, and antimony will maintain a bull market due to increasing control and stockpiling by resource countries, leading to a systematic price increase [4] - Overall, the nonferrous metals sector is expected to experience significant development opportunities, driven by rising prices and supportive policies for critical mineral resources [4]

Group 1: Market Outlook - The current bull market is shaped by the "fragile balance" in US-China economic relations, which has evolved from a phase of symbiosis (2005-2016) to increased trade friction (2017-2024) and now to a new phase since 2025 [2][3] - The "fragile" aspect indicates potential tail risks, while the "balance" suggests both countries have sufficient leverage for negotiations, potentially leading to a reassessment of China's competitiveness and a new valuation recovery space [2][3] Group 2: Gold Market - The ongoing bull market for gold is expected to continue, with gold seen as a key hedging tool against tail risks in the current economic environment [2][4] - The influx of funds into gold ETFs in the US and Europe reflects a trend of "de-dollarization," indicating a detachment from US real interest rates [4] Group 3: Equity Market Dynamics - Historical trends show that during technological revolutions, growth often outpaces value; however, the current AI revolution may lead to more frequent style rotations between growth and value stocks [3] - Different markets exhibit varying performance; for instance, since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, US stocks have shown growth outperforming value, while non-US markets have seen value outperforming growth [3] Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The non-ferrous metals sector is poised for significant growth opportunities due to rising demand from AI, electricity, new energy, and high-end manufacturing, coupled with insufficient capital expenditure on the supply side [4] - Strategic metals like cobalt, natural uranium, tungsten, rare earths, and antimony are expected to maintain a bull market due to increasing control and stockpiling by resource countries, leading to a systemic price uplift [4]

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy meeting held by CICC focused on the theme "Ride the Momentum, Seek New Opportunities," discussing the current bull market and its future direction [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - CICC's chief strategist, Miao Yanliang, indicated that the Sino-U.S. economic relationship has entered a "fragile balance," which implies potential tail risks while also providing a basis for negotiation [4] - The current bull market is attributed to the evolving dynamics of Sino-U.S. relations, transitioning from a phase of mutual benefit (2005-2016) to increased trade friction (2017-2024), and now to a new phase of "fragile balance" since 2025 [4] - Miao believes that this new order allows for a reassessment of China's competitiveness, potentially leading to a confidence premium and new valuation recovery space [4] Group 2: Gold Market Outlook - Miao suggests that the ongoing restructuring of the international monetary order may lead to an underappreciated gold bull market, with gold being a key hedging tool against tail risks [4] - The current bull market in gold is expected to continue, with strong medium to long-term allocation value [4][7] Group 3: Stock Market Trends - The stock market is likely to experience more frequent style rotations, with growth potentially not consistently outperforming value during this AI technology revolution [4] - Historical trends show that technological advancements often create high-growth investment opportunities, but current geopolitical tensions may lead to resource over-investment and efficiency declines [4] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector is anticipated to see significant growth opportunities due to the deepening trend of de-globalization and high U.S. interest rates [7] - CICC's research indicates that basic metals like copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to perform well in 2026 due to emerging demands from AI, electricity, and new energy sectors [8] - Strategic metals such as cobalt, natural uranium, tungsten, and rare earths are projected to maintain a bull market, with prices expected to rise systematically due to supply-demand imbalances [8]

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among major securities firms is that the A-share market is expected to enter a "slow bull market" in 2026, with a shift in investment opportunities from technology dominance in 2025 to multiple main lines in 2026 [1][3][4] Market Outlook - Following the policy measures introduced on September 24, 2024, the A-share market has entered a new bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high in 2025 [2] - Securities firms predict that the market will continue to evolve within a slow bull framework, with a key feature being the shift in driving forces [3][4] Driving Forces - The driving force is expected to shift from "valuation repair" to "profit-driven" or "fundamental verification" in 2026 [4] - Estimates suggest that the overall profit growth for A-shares in 2026 could be around 4.7%, with many industries nearing performance improvement turning points [4] Investment Strategies - Major securities firms highlight three main investment lines: technology growth, Chinese enterprises going global, and cyclical resource products [9][11][13] - The technology growth sector remains a favored direction, with a focus on performance rather than concepts, particularly in application breakthroughs [10] - The trend of Chinese enterprises expanding internationally is seen as a significant configuration clue, with a focus on sectors like home appliances, engineering machinery, and electric grid equipment [12] Market Style Rotation - The potential for a style switch from "growth" to "value" around June 2026 is a focal point of discussion among securities firms [7][8] - The market is expected to trend towards a more balanced style, with cyclical industries approaching supply-demand equilibrium [8][6] Resource Products - Resource products are anticipated to become a new main line following technology, driven by global monetary easing and supply-demand gaps [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among major securities firms is that the A-share market is expected to enter a "slow bull market" in 2026, with a shift in investment opportunities from technology dominance in 2025 to multiple main lines in 2026 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market has entered a new bull market since the policy measures introduced on September 24, 2024, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high in 2025 [2]. - Major securities firms predict that the market will continue to evolve within a slow bull framework, with a key characteristic being the shift in driving forces [3][4]. - CITIC Securities emphasizes that A-shares should be viewed from a global demand perspective, as Chinese companies' advantages in the global value chain are transforming into pricing power, forming the basis for a low-volatility slow bull market [3]. Group 2: Driving Forces - There is a general expectation among securities firms that the driving force for the market will shift from "valuation recovery" to "profit-driven" or "fundamental verification" in 2026 [4]. - CICC estimates that the overall profit growth for A-shares in 2026 could be around 4.7%, with many industries nearing performance improvement [4]. - Dongwu Securities notes that the overall revenue and profit growth for A-shares has ended a four-year downward cycle and is beginning to rebound, supported by economic reforms and improved supply-demand dynamics [4]. Group 3: Investment Styles - The debate among securities firms centers on whether the market style will shift from "growth" to "value" in 2026, with Dongwu Securities identifying June 2026 as a potential key time for this transition [6][7]. - CICC suggests that the market style may become more balanced, as many cyclical industries approach supply-demand equilibrium [8]. - Guotai Junan recommends maintaining a focus on technology while also considering previously underperforming sectors such as real estate and consumer goods during the bull market [8]. Group 4: Investment Themes - Securities firms highlight three main investment themes: technology growth, Chinese companies going global, and cyclical resource products [9][10]. - The technology growth sector remains a favored direction, with a shift in focus from concepts to performance, particularly in application breakthroughs [9]. - The trend of Chinese companies expanding internationally is seen as a significant opportunity, with recommendations to focus on sectors like home appliances, engineering machinery, and global pricing resources [10][11].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the brokerage industry is entering an upward trajectory after hitting a low in Q4 2023, with significant growth observed in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 [5][18]. - The brokerage sector has seen a shift from "customer acquisition" to "existing customer management and institutional deepening," focusing on creating a comprehensive product matrix across various investment types [5][29]. - The report identifies three categories of brokers that have outperformed: those with low valuations and improving fundamentals, those involved in mergers and acquisitions, and those driven by innovative business models [5][12]. Group 2 - The report indicates that the performance of H-shares has outpaced A-shares due to a stronger Hong Kong market, lower valuations, and accelerated interconnectivity between capital markets [11][12]. - As of November 14, 2025, the brokerage index has increased by 4.29%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 19.06%, indicating a significant underperformance of the brokerage sector compared to the broader market [11][12]. - The report notes that the brokerage sector's price-to-book ratio is currently at 1.41 times, which is at the 47th percentile since 2018, suggesting that the sector is undervalued [5]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of wealth management as a core support for brokerage businesses, driven by increased asset allocation from residents into the equity market [5][34]. - The brokerage industry is expected to benefit directly from the increasing attractiveness of the equity market, with specific recommendations for companies like GF Securities, Huatai Securities, and China Galaxy Securities [5]. - The report outlines that the brokerage sector's net profit for the first nine months of 2025 has increased by 66% year-on-year, with significant contributions from brokerage and interest income [18][34]. Group 4 - The report discusses the internationalization of brokerage services, driven by client demand, with major firms establishing overseas subsidiaries and focusing on cross-border services [5][18]. - The brokerage sector is experiencing a "counter-cyclical" asset allocation strategy, with a continued increase in equity asset allocation expected in 2025 [5][18]. - The report highlights that the brokerage industry is positioned for a recovery in public fund profitability, with the potential for increased allocations from public funds to the non-bank financial sector [5][18].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.18% last week, closing at 3990.49 points, with a high of 4034.08 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.4%, ending at 13216.03 points, with a peak of 13502.16 points [1] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 3.01%, closing at 3111.51 points, with a maximum of 3236.61 points [1] - In global markets, the Nasdaq Composite Index declined by 0.45%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.34% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.08% [1] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.26% and the Nikkei 225 rose by 0.2% [1] ETF Market Performance - The median weekly return for stock ETFs was -1.05% [2] - The highest weekly return among scale index ETFs was 2.32% for the Yinhua CSI 2000 Enhanced Strategy ETF [2] - The highest weekly return among industry index ETFs was 3.9% for the CMB CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen 500 Healthcare ETF [2] - The highest weekly return among strategy index ETFs was 2.55% for the Bosera CSI All-Share Free Cash Flow ETF [2] - The highest weekly return among theme index ETFs was 5.92% for the Huaxia CSI Tourism Theme ETF [2] ETF Liquidity - Average daily trading volume for stock ETFs decreased by 3.8%, while average daily trading volume increased by 24.1% [6] - The turnover rate decreased by 0.07% [6] ETF Fund Flows - The top five stock ETFs by fund inflow were: - Southern ChiNext AI ETF with an inflow of 899 million yuan - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech 50 ETF with an inflow of 734 million yuan - Harvest SSE Sci-Tech Chip ETF with an inflow of 707 million yuan - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF with an inflow of 580 million yuan - E Fund ChiNext ETF with an inflow of 556 million yuan [9] - The top five stock ETFs by fund outflow were: - GF CSI A500 ETF with an outflow of 336 million yuan - Southern CSI 1000 ETF with an outflow of 324 million yuan - Harvest CSI A500 ETF with an outflow of 283 million yuan - Guotai CSI Coal ETF with an outflow of 199 million yuan - Hua Bao CSI Bank ETF with an outflow of 192 million yuan [10] ETF Financing and Margin Trading - The financing balance for stock ETFs decreased from 47.9148 billion yuan to 47.7222 billion yuan [11] - The highest financing buy amount was for E Fund ChiNext ETF, totaling 54.5 million yuan [11] ETF Market Size - The total market size for ETFs reached 572.9922 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.968 billion yuan from the previous week [14] - The stock ETF market size was 369.935 billion yuan, accounting for 64.6% of the total ETF market size [16] ETF Issuance and Establishment - No new ETFs were issued last week, but five new ETFs were established [17]