中金公司 周期半月谈——两会政策背景下周期板块的逻辑 演绎 20250310 摘要 Q&A 两会期间财政政策和货币政策对经济的影响有哪些？ 两会期间，财政政策总体符合市场预期，特别国债从去年（2024 年）的 1 万亿 提升到 1.3 万亿，专项地方债从 3.9 万亿提到 4.4 万亿。这些措施在国债和地 方债层面都有所扩展，对经济有一定刺激作用。预算内的赤字率为 4%，加上特 别国债和专项地方债后的广义赤字率接近 8%，这一水平在中国历史上较高，仅 次于 2020 年疫情爆发时的高位。 财政政策从积极转向更加积极，特别国债重 点支持"两重两轻"，即企业端设备以新换旧和居民端消费品以旧换新，如家 • 中国财政政策转向更加积极，广义赤字率接近 8%，为历史较高水平，重点 支持企业设备更新和居民消费品以旧换新，利好汽车、家电等化工下游行 业，有望推动化工品需求增长。 • 货币政策适度宽松但受汇率约束，未来可能择机降准降息以应对出口下行 和物价风险。居民就业和收入偏弱导致储蓄增加，需进一步提振经济。 • 化工行业资本开支已开始下降，预计 2025 年下半年快速扩张产能步入尾声， 有助于行业景气度回升。能源成本下降缓 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the integrated machine and AI SoC sectors, particularly in the context of AI model deployment and local data security needs [3][11]. Core Insights - The demand for integrated machines has surged following the release of the Deep Seek AI model, with significant interest from government and enterprise sectors due to their data security requirements [3]. - The integrated machine is designed for AI model applications, effectively shortening deployment cycles and lowering barriers to entry, with a projected demand of 70,000 units in the government and enterprise sectors by 2025, translating to a market size of 54 billion yuan [3][11]. - The Deep Seek distilled small parameter models demonstrate excellent performance on terminal devices, achieving real-time question answering with a 1.5B model and suitable for text summarization and image description with 7B/8B models, requiring a minimum of 4-5GB of memory under INT4 quantization [3][5]. - Domestic computing power is expected to play a crucial role in the integrated machine sector, aligning well with mainstream downstream demands, although challenges in software-hardware collaboration remain [3][7]. - Quantization techniques are highlighted as a means to reduce AI hardware costs by converting model parameters from 16-bit floating-point to 8-bit integers, thus decreasing model size and computational complexity [3][8][9]. - The report notes a significant reduction in AI inference costs, which is driving the trend towards edge computing, with lightweight AI hardware gaining advantages in both edge and cloud environments [3][15]. - In the smart automotive sector, companies are integrating AI technologies to enhance smart cockpit functionalities, with BYD leading the way in adopting new AI chips in its vehicles [3][17]. - The domestic automotive chip sector is making strides, with companies like Yikatong collaborating with Volkswagen to export new SOC chips, indicating a growing acceptance of domestic chips in international markets [3][20]. Summary by Sections Integrated Machines - Integrated machines are tailored for AI model applications, providing a plug-and-play computing solution that meets high data security requirements for sectors like government and finance [4][10]. - The projected demand for integrated machines in the Chinese server market is expected to reach approximately 70,000 units by 2025, with a market potential of 54 billion yuan [11]. AI Model Performance - The Deep Seek distilled models are effective in reducing hardware resource requirements while maintaining performance, making them suitable for various applications [5][16]. Domestic Computing Power - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic computing power in the integrated machine sector, with a need to overcome challenges related to precision support in AI chips [7]. Cost Reduction Techniques - Techniques such as fixed-point quantization are crucial for lowering AI hardware costs and improving overall efficiency [8][9]. Smart Automotive Sector - The integration of AI in smart vehicles is on the rise, with significant advancements in automotive chip technology and collaborations with international partners [17][20].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the robotic vacuum cleaner industry, particularly for companies like Stone Technology and Ecovacs, due to their technological innovation and market strategies [3][23]. Core Insights - The robotic vacuum cleaner market is undergoing significant transformation driven by advancements in AI and robotics, enhancing product capabilities and expanding application scenarios [3][4]. - The global market size for robotic vacuum cleaners is estimated to be around $7 to $8 billion, with a notable 40% year-on-year growth in the domestic retail market, reaching approximately 20 billion yuan [3][6]. - Leading companies like Stone Technology are expected to see revenue growth of 40%-50% in 2025, with a projected revenue close to 18 billion yuan and a stable net profit margin of 10%-15% [3][8]. - The market is shifting from a price-driven strategy to a value-for-money approach, with innovations aimed at addressing consumer pain points [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The domestic market is dominated by key players such as Ecovacs, Stone Technology, and others, while the European market is a battleground for Chinese brands [5][16]. - In North America, the market is shared among Chinese brands and local competitors, with significant room for growth for Chinese brands in offline channels [5][16]. - The global cleaning appliance market is projected to grow by 4% in 2024, with robotic vacuum cleaners and stick vacuums showing strong performance [11]. Product Innovation - Innovations in robotic vacuum cleaners focus on enhancing navigation, obstacle avoidance, and cleaning efficiency, transitioning from mere tools to intelligent devices [12][18]. - The introduction of features like mechanical arms and advanced algorithms signifies a shift towards more sophisticated cleaning solutions [13][18]. Future Trends - The report anticipates a dual trend of domestic growth and international market penetration for the robotic vacuum cleaner industry in 2025, with a focus on innovation and value [17][21]. - Companies are expected to continue expanding their product offerings across various price segments to capture a broader market share [20][21].

摘要 Q&A 近期 T 价格为何上涨？ 近期 T 价格的上涨主要受到三重利好因素的推动：出口改善、内需增长以及进 口矿的收缩。首先，出口方面，自去年（2024 年）10 月 30 日中国海关恢复氧 化锑的出口编码以来，国内拥有出口资质的企业陆续申请出口许可证，氧化锑 的出口逐步改善。根据海关数据，去年 11 月和 12 月我国分别出口氧化锑 776 吨和 1,571 吨，12 月环比增长 102%，恢复到管制前三年平均水平的 41%左右。 其次，内需方面，在阻燃剂采购旺季和光伏抢装双重推动下需求增加。根据测 算，2023 年 T 下游消费结构中阻燃剂占比 50%，光伏玻璃占比 24%。以旧换新 • 中国氧化锑出口逐步改善，去年 12 月出口量环比增长 102%，恢复至管制 前三年平均水平的 41%左右，主要受益于企业积极申请出口许可证。 • 国内阻燃剂采购旺季和光伏抢装推动氧化锑需求增加。阻燃剂占下游消费 50%，光伏玻璃占 24%。以旧换新政策和新能源项目并网截止日期前加速排 产，均利好需求。 • 进口矿收缩导致国内冶炼产量受限。去年 12 月铁矿进口环比减少 63%，内 外盘价差高企抬升进口成本，抑制国内 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for various sectors, particularly in technology and construction, with a focus on government support and policy measures to stimulate growth [2][3][19]. Core Insights - The government has set a growth target of approximately 5% for 2025, with a CPI target of around 2%, reflecting a pragmatic approach to economic management [2]. - Fiscal policy is becoming more proactive, with an increase in the budget and local government special bonds, aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market [3][5]. - Emphasis on new productivity represented by AI and other emerging technologies, with a focus on modernizing the industrial system and promoting large-scale application demonstrations of new technologies [3][6][30]. - The resilience of Chinese exports is highlighted, with stable global market shares and an increase in the share of intermediate goods, indicating continued global reliance on China [7]. - Capital market reforms are deepening, with measures to attract long-term funds into the market, including increased allocations from insurance and public funds [10][19]. - The report outlines specific measures for the real estate sector, including demand stimulation and supply adjustments, to support market stabilization [23][21]. Summary by Sections Economic Goals and Policies - The government aims for a 5% growth target and a 2% CPI target, with fiscal policies becoming more aggressive, including a budget increase to 1.6 trillion yuan and an increase in local government special bonds to 4.4 trillion yuan [2][3]. Real Estate Market - The report emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market through various measures, including issuing special bonds to support local governments and expanding the use of special loans [5][21][23]. Emerging Industries - The focus is on AI, biomanufacturing, quantum technology, and 6G as key areas for future growth, with government support for large-scale applications of new technologies [6][30]. Export Resilience - Despite global supply chain disruptions, Chinese exports have shown resilience, maintaining stable market shares and increasing the share of intermediate goods [7]. Capital Market Reforms - The report discusses measures to deepen capital market reforms, including attracting long-term funds and optimizing stock issuance and merger regulations [10][19]. Construction and Building Materials - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds and 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds, which is expected to improve the order and payment situation for construction enterprises [15][16]. Technology and Innovation - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation, particularly in AI and related fields, and emphasizes the need for core technology self-reliance [30][32].

银行投资方面，建议继续关注9月以来一揽子刺激政策的落地效果以及新一轮政策推出情况，银行股息 仍具有吸引力。 人民财讯3月6日电，中金公司研报称，本次政府工作报告体现出明确的稳增长信号，以及"出台实施政 策要能早则早、宁早勿晚"的政策实施思路，同时对于货币信贷增长、房地产和地方债务、中小银行风 险处置等方面提出了更加务实可行的措施，预计后续相关政策有望陆续出台；特别国债注资大行有望沿 着分期分批、稳妥推进的思路，对每股分红和净资产的摊薄较小，银行有望保持高分红的特征。 ...

人民财讯3月6日电，中金公司研报称，中国制造业的优势被更广泛地认知，科技领域突破、中国资产重 估成为2月初以来市场上涨的主要推动力。 短期看，美国加征关税可能短期拖累对美出口，但中国科技与制造推动国产替代、沿着产业链升级、出 海拓宽市场是长期趋势。 政府工作报告内容披露后，市场延续近期的震荡上行表现。 在科技与文化领域发展超预期的催化下，市场结构性机会增多，自下而上的赛道研究更加重要。 展望后市，随着美联储进入降息周期、美国大选结果落定、国内稳增长政策持续发力，我们认为A股市 场已过重山，底部大概率已经出现，风险偏好有望回升。 从节奏上看，当前市场普遍预期美联储降息的时点在6月，届时汇率掣肘减轻，下半年市场表现有望好 于上半年。 ...

主要超配行业：半导体、消费电子、基础设施、电气设备、高端机械；主要低配行业：油气开采、水务 及环保、电商、医疗服务、综合。 人民财讯3月5日电，中金公司认为，结合当前宏观背景，A股全年市场整体表现有望好于2013年；科技 成长的结构性行情近期虽有波折但预计中短期（3—6个月）仍将延续，与整体指数的分化程度可能不会 像2013年那样显著。 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年2月28日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國國際金融股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年3月3日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03908 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,903,714,428 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 1,903,714,428 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 1,903,714,428 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 1,903,714,428 | | 2. 股份分類 ...

摘要 Q&A 最近机械板块的市场环境和经济变化有哪些显著趋势？ 最近市场环境和经济变化对机械板块产生了显著影响。工程机械、AI 驱动的 AIDC 以及机器人等细分方向都出现了新的发展趋势。特别是智能制造领域，市 场关注度较高，我们进行了相关调研，寻找低位且预期不足的个股，如八方股 份和捷昌驱动。 中金公司 高端装备半月谈 • 电助力自行车行业库存周期接近尾声，八方股份受益于新老客户需求叠加， 预计 2025 年和 2026 年收入显著提升。关注电机设计与力矩传感器核心能 力在人体相关领域的迁移。 • 复合集流体产业化加速，各大厂商已下达 G 瓦级订单，材料厂商产能利用 率预计在 2025 年下半年满负荷运转，并启动大规模扩产。设备公司和材料 公司有望迎来投资机会。 • 艾立特发布智能底座，标志着战略调整，从工业机器人系统集成应用向人 形机器人生态建设转型。关注其在智能制造领域的进展及第二成长曲线的 挖掘。 • AIDC 基建中备电柴油发电机组板块行情持续，供需缺口短期难以缓解，量 价提升逻辑在招标中不断验证。玉柴国际合资公司业绩亮眼，自主品牌验 证成功并逐步批量出货。 • 工程机械行业需求呈现扁平化上行周期， ...