[Table_Invest]买入|维持 [Table_Main] 公司研究|日常消费|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 今世缘(603369)公司点评报告 2024 年 11 月 05 日 [Table_Title] 大本营稳固，省外表现良好 ——今世缘 2024 年三季报点评 [Table_Summary] 事件 公司公告 2024 年三季报。24Q1-3，公司实现总营收 99.42 亿元，同比 +18.85%，归母净利 30.86 亿元，同比+17.08%。24Q3，公司实现总营收 26.37 亿元，同比+10.11%，归母净利 6.24 亿元，同比+6.61%。 指导价百元以上产品引领增长，各区域稳健增长 1）特 A 类及以上产品引领增长。24Q1-3，公司特 A+类/特 A 类/A 类/B 类 /C、D 类/其他产品分别实现收入 64.68/28.62/3.67/1.23/0.60/0.04 亿元，同 比+18.86%/+21.91%/+12.28%/-5.72%/-11.00/-27.93%。24Q3，公司特 A+ 类 /特 A 类收入规 模及增速领 先， 分别为 18.13/6.46 亿元，同 比 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 9.942 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.85%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.086 billion yuan, up 17.08% year-on-year [2][6] - The company is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 12.129 billion yuan, 14.183 billion yuan, and 16.281 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 20.08%, 16.94%, and 14.79% [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.637 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.11%, and a net profit of 624 million yuan, up 6.61% year-on-year [2][6] - The company's gross margin decreased by 1.99 percentage points to 74.27%, while the net profit margin fell by 0.47 percentage points to 31.04% [5] Product Structure and Market Performance - The company has optimized its product structure, with high-end products (Special A and above) accounting for 94.39% of sales, an increase of 0.77 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Revenue from the domestic market reached 9.081 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.71%, while revenue from the external market grew by 32.73% to 804 million yuan [4] Future Outlook - The company aims to focus on high-quality development and continue expanding its market presence both domestically and externally, with a strategic plan to enhance its product offerings and market penetration [6] - The projected earnings per share for the next three years are 2.89 yuan, 3.30 yuan, and 3.65 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15, 13, and 12 [8][12]

[Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 股票数据 | | 11 [ Table_StockInfo 月 04 日收盘价（元） ] | | 52 周股价波动（元） | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | | 总市值 / 流通市值（百万元） | | 相关研究 | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《智慧工厂投产开酿，产品矩阵持续完善》 | | 2024.09.24 | | 《 增 长 势 能 延 续 ， 迈 入 后 百 亿 时 代 》 | | 2024.08.19 《增长势能持续，省外表现亮眼》 | | 市场表现 | -34.56% -26.56% -18.56% -10.56% -2.56% 5.44% 海通综指 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 44.48 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [2]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 99.4 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 30.9 billion, up 17.1% year-on-year [4]. - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was RMB 26.4 billion, a 10.1% increase year-on-year, while the net profit was RMB 6.2 billion, reflecting a 6.6% year-on-year growth [4]. - The company is actively adjusting its operational pace and focusing on deepening its market presence within the province, maintaining a strong competitive advantage [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 26.4 billion and a net profit of RMB 6.2 billion, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 10.1% and 6.6% [6]. - The company's gross margin for Q3 2024 was 75.6%, down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased promotional efforts [6]. - The company’s total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached RMB 99.4 billion, with a net profit of RMB 30.9 billion, marking an 18.9% and 17.1% increase year-on-year, respectively [4][6]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on its core products, with the premium product line (priced above RMB 300) generating RMB 18.1 billion in revenue, accounting for 68.8% of total revenue [4]. - The company has expanded its distributor network to 1,193, with 588 distributors in the province and 605 in other regions, indicating a strategic focus on both local and external markets [4]. Valuation and Forecast - The report adjusts the revenue growth forecast for 2024 to 17.2%, with net profit growth projected at 16.1% [5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is RMB 2.90, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15.3X for 2024, 13.5X for 2025, and 11.9X for 2026 [5].

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|今世缘（603369） 三季报点评：业绩环比降速，尊重市场 规律 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月04日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 公司发布 2024 年三季度报告，2024Q3 公司实现营业总收入 26.37 亿元，同比+10.11%；归母 净利润 6.24 亿元，同比+6.61%，收入利润略低于我们此前预期。分产品和区域来看，高价酒 增长领先低价酒，苏中与淮安增速领先。考虑到公司推进省内市占率提升、同时发力省外打开 增长天花板，维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 邓周贵 徐锡联 刘景瑜 吴雪枫 SAC：S0590524040005 SAC：S0590524040004 SAC：S0590524030005 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年11月04日 今世缘(603369) 三季报点评：业绩环比降速，尊重市场规律 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------|------------------| ...

公司报告 | 季报点评 业绩增长稳健，利润率有所承压 业绩： 2024Q3 公司营业收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 26.37/6.24/6.28 亿元（同比+10.11%/+6.61%/+7.33%）。 中高档产品结构仍稳定，特 A+类增速居前。24Q3 公司白酒业务收入 26. 26 亿元（同比+10.29%），其中：特 A+类（出厂价 300 元+产品）/特 A 类 （出厂价 100-300 元产品）/A 类/B 类/C+D 类/其他分别实现收入 18.13/6. 46/1.09/0.41/0.17/0.007 亿元（同比+11.70%/+9.55%/+7.74%/-11.86%/-17.8 0%/-29.13%）。 省内区域增速略有放缓，省外渠道质量持续提升。 ① 市场方面，24Q3 省内/外收入分别为 24.23/2.04 亿元（同比+9.32%/+2 3.04%），其中省内淮安大区/南京大区/苏南大区/苏中大区/盐城大区/ 淮海大区收入分别为 6.60/4.99/3.87/3.55/2.88/2.32 亿元（同比+10.10% /+8.12%/+8.24%/+12.89%/+9.03%/+ ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 今世缘（603369） 2024 年三季报点评：理性降速，砥砺奋进 2024 年 11 月 03 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 7888 | 10100 | 11833 | 13456 | 15623 | | 同比（ % ） | 23.09 | 28.05 | 17.15 | 13.71 | 16.11 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2503 | 3136 | 3607 | 4129 | 4896 | | 同比（ % ） | 23.34 | 25.30 | 15.03 | 14.45 | 18.59 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 2.00 | 2.50 | 2.88 | 3.29 | 3.90 ...

[Table_StockNameRptType] 今世缘（603369） 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------|------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

2024 年 11 月 02 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) [Table_Title] 主动调整，势能延续 研究所： 证券分析师： 刘洁铭 S0350521110006 liujm@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 秦一方 S0350523120001 qinyf@ghzq.com.cn ——今世缘（603369）2024 年三季报点评 事件: 最近一年走势 2024 年 10 月 30 日，今世缘发布 2024 年三季报。2024 年前三季度公 司实现营业总收入 99.42 亿元，同比+18.85%；归母净利润 30.86 亿元， 同比+17.08%；扣非归母净利润 30.74 亿元，同比+16.59%。2024Q3 公 司实现营业总收入 26.37 亿元，同比+10.11%；归母净利润 6.24 亿元， 同比+6.61%；扣非归母净利润 6.28 亿元，同比+7.33%。 投资要点: 相对沪深 300 表现 2024/11/01 主动调整节奏，业绩增速环比放缓。2024Q3 公司营收/归母净利润 同比分别+10.11%/+6.61%，业绩增速环比降幅较多，我们预计主要 系宏观消费环境承压叠加货折比 ...

2024 年 11 月 1 日 公司研究 Q3 调整节奏，省内仍具增长势能 ——今世缘（603369.SH）2024 年三季报点评 要点 事件：今世缘发布 2024 年三季报，24 年前三季度公司实现营业总收入 99.42 亿元、同比增长 18.85%，实现归母净利润 30.86 亿元、同比增长 17.08%，其 中 Q3 单季总营收 26.37 亿元、同比增长 10.11%，归母净利润 6.24 亿元、同比 增长 6.61%，Q3 业绩表现略低于我们此前预期。 Q3 收入增幅环比降速。三季度公司收入端同比增长 10%、环比 Q2 明显降速， 鉴于外部需求环境压力较大，公司 Q3 主动放慢节奏、为渠道释压，但整体成长 性在板块内依然较优。1）分产品看，24Q3 特 A+类/特 A 类/A 类产品销售收入 分别为 18.13/6.46/1.09 亿元，同比增加 11.7%/9.55%/7.74%，国缘四开动销 相对稳健、价盘在同价位竞品中亦较为坚挺，但由于外部环境影响叠加本身基数 偏高，估计 Q3 四开收入增速有所放缓，对开收入保持相对较快增长。V 系列所 在价格带受需求承压影响较大，但由于基数较低、估计 V3 ...