Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company with a 6-month target price of 51.65 CNY, corresponding to a 22.05X valuation for 2025 [4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 6.95 billion CNY, down 4.84% year-on-year, and net profit at 2.23 billion CNY, down 9.46% year-on-year [1][2]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a significant drop in revenue and net profit, with revenue at 1.85 billion CNY, down 29.73% year-on-year, and net profit at 585 million CNY, down 37.03% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is focusing on long-term quality growth by enhancing market penetration in domestic towns and expanding the production scale of premium liquor [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the revenue breakdown by product category shows a decline in the Special A+ category by 7.37% to 4.31 billion CNY, while the Special A category saw a slight increase of 0.74% to 2.23 billion CNY [2]. - Revenue from domestic sales was 6.25 billion CNY, down 6.07% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province increased by 4.78% to 628 million CNY [2]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was stable at 72.81%, with a slight decrease of 0.21 percentage points year-on-year, but the net profit margin fell to 31.58%, down 3.69 percentage points due to increased expense ratios [3]. Future Projections - The company is projected to experience revenue growth rates of -8.4%, 5.7%, and 8.3% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit growth rates of -13.9%, 7.3%, and 11.3% for the same years [4][5].

天风证券研报指出，今世缘25H1实现收入/归母净利润69.5/22.3亿（同比-4.8%/-9.5%）；25Q2实现收入/ 归母净利润18.5/5.9亿（同比-29.7%/-37.1%）。价格带方面，公司四开、对开等产品已形成优势基本 盘，在省内大部分市场仍有提升空间。接下来将重点突破价格更高的V3产品。经销商持续开拓，省内 压力大于省外。省外重点把握400-500元价格带在华东、华北的结构性机会，既承接300元价格带升级需 求，也吸引600-700元价格带的理性消费转移。25Q2公司面对承压环境主动降压控速，预计Q3仍将延续 调整。考虑到公司渠道&市场势能仍在，蓄势之态明确，维持"买入"投资评级。 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 食品饮料 食品饮料 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 14 日 白酒旺季迎来配置窗口，大众品紧握新消费趋势 ——食饮行业周报（2025 年 9 月第 2 期） 投资要点 食饮观点：茅台 8 月动销环比增长显著、多地终端动销环比增幅达 15%- 35%，关注双节白酒备货动销表现，我们预计双节动销仍有压力、但环比改 善，或带来板块配置机会。25H1 大众品板块表现优秀，其中软饮料、啤 酒、调味品板块业绩增速均实现正增长；白酒板块业绩稍显承压，酒企业绩 均出现明显降速。我们认为白酒板块应优选品牌势能较强的香型龙头酒企； 大众品板块依旧紧握新消费趋势。大众品当前推荐卫龙美味、万辰集团、东 鹏饮料；白酒当前推荐珍酒李渡、泸州老窖、古井贡酒、今世缘。 白酒板块：茅台 8 月动销环比增长显著、多地终端动销环比增幅达 15%- 35%，关注双节白酒备货动销表现，我们预计双节动销仍有压力、但环比改 善，或带来板块配置机会。我们认为综合头部酒企利润底来推算市值空间， 当前白酒板块具备配置价值，基于此当前推荐珍酒李渡、泸州老窖、古井贡 酒、今世缘。①香型龙头优先推荐贵州茅台/山西汾酒/五粮液；②推荐 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 6.951 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.84%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.229 billion yuan, down 9.46% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.224 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.08% year-on-year [2][6] - In Q2 2025, the company generated total revenue of 1.852 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 29.69%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for the quarter was 585 million yuan, down 37.06% year-on-year, with the net profit excluding non-recurring items also at 585 million yuan, a decrease of 36.47% year-on-year [2][6] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue for Q2 2025 was 1.852 billion yuan, with product performance showing that Special A+ and Special A categories generated revenues of 1.142 billion yuan and 583 million yuan respectively, both experiencing declines of 32.07% and 28.1% year-on-year [12] - The company's net profit margin for Q2 2025 decreased by 3.69 percentage points to 31.57%, while the gross profit margin fell by 0.21 percentage points to 72.81% [12] Market Performance - The company has adjusted its strategies to alleviate channel pressures and maintain product competitiveness, which is expected to support its market position in the future [12] - The estimated EPS for 2025 and 2026 is projected to be 2.55 yuan and 2.69 yuan respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 17 and 16 times [12] Financial Data - The current stock price is 42.45 yuan, with a total share capital of 124.68 million shares. The highest and lowest prices in the last 12 months were 57.36 yuan and 35.35 yuan respectively [9]

今世缘酒业股份有限公司表示通过本次节水诊断的精准"把脉"，为企业下一步实施水效提升提供了科学 有效的技术支撑，"减本增效"的节水效益将更加凸显。 (郭剑 刘超群 高明 陆保伟) 为进一步落实水利部和江苏省水利厅开展节水诊断公益服务的工作要求，推动用水企业水效提升，助力 用水企业"减本增效"，9月10日，江苏省水资源服务中心、江苏省节水医院到涟水县今世缘（603369） 酒业股份有限公司开展节水诊断公益服务。 本次诊断服务重点围绕酿造车间、灌装线、水处理中心等核心用水环节开展，对企业取水、用水、循环 处理及排放的全过程管理进行现场勘察，针对工艺节水技术改造、非常规水源利用、水资源循环利用体 系建设以及节水精细化管理措施进行潜力分析，并提出技术优化路径。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jinshiyuan, has experienced a significant slowdown in revenue and profit growth, marking a departure from its previous trajectory as a "dark horse" in the liquor industry, with expectations for a decline in overall performance in 2025 [4][21]. Revenue and Profit Performance - In the first half of 2025, Jinshiyuan reported revenue of 6.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%, and a net profit of 2.23 billion yuan, down 9.5% [4][5]. - The second quarter saw a sharp decline, with revenue of 1.85 billion yuan, a 29.7% drop year-on-year, and a net profit of 590 million yuan, down 37.1% [4][5]. - This marks only the second instance of mid-year revenue and profit decline since 2015, excluding 2020, with forecasts indicating a potential annual decline for the first time in a decade [4][7]. Product Performance - The high-end product segment is under pressure, with the premium category (特A+类) experiencing a revenue drop of 7.37% in the first half of 2025 [10]. - The product structure shows a heavy reliance on high-end offerings, with 62% of revenue coming from the premium category, which has been adversely affected by recent policy changes [10][11]. Market Expansion - Jinshiyuan's revenue is heavily concentrated in Jiangsu province, accounting for approximately 90% of total revenue, with a slight increase in revenue from outside the province [11][12]. - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in surrounding markets, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta region, while facing challenges in the provincial market [13][14]. Financial Indicators - The company set an ambitious revenue target of 15 billion yuan by 2025 but has adjusted its expectations due to market conditions, now aiming for a growth rate of 5%-12% [15][16]. - Key financial metrics indicate pressure, with a significant reduction in contract liabilities and an increase in inventory turnover days, suggesting sales difficulties [17]. Strategic Responses - In response to market challenges, Jinshiyuan plans to adjust its marketing strategies, increase promotional efforts, and potentially introduce lower-alcohol products to meet changing consumer preferences [19][20]. - The company aims to balance its product structure and enhance its market presence while navigating the current industry adjustment period [21].

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of the liquor company Jiuziyuan for the first half of 2025 shows a decline in both revenue and net profit, marking a challenging period for the company since 2020 [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.951 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.81%, and a net profit of 2.229 billion yuan, down 9.46% [1] - The second quarter was particularly weak, with revenue dropping to 1.852 billion yuan, a significant decline of 29.69%, and net profit falling by 37.06% to 584.7 million yuan [2] Risk Indicators - The company's contract liabilities, which reflect prepayments from distributors, decreased to 599.6 million yuan, down 4.44% year-on-year, with a more severe drop of 44.68% in the first quarter [2] - Inventory turnover days increased to 549.8 days from 451.1 days year-on-year, indicating pressure on sales, while inventory turnover rate fell from 0.399 to 0.327 [2] - The total inventory rose to 5.569 billion yuan, an increase of 11.46% year-on-year, constituting 40% of current assets [2] Expansion Strategy - The company is pursuing an "inverse expansion" strategy, with total production capacity reaching 60,000 tons after launching a new project in February 2024, and plans to add another 20,000 tons by 2026 [4] - Despite the expansion, there are concerns about overcapacity risks during a period of industry adjustment [4] Market Position and Challenges - Jiuziyuan has established a stronghold in the Jiangsu market with its three major brands, but faces challenges in expanding beyond this region, with only 9.03% of revenue coming from outside the province [4][5] - The company's revenue in its core market, the Nanjing area, fell to 1.753 billion yuan, down from 1.905 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a ceiling effect in regional market growth [4] Future Outlook - The management's five-year plan set a target of 2 billion yuan in revenue from outside the province by 2025, but current progress shows a significant gap to achieve a 13.3% share of total revenue [5]

赵崇甫：今世缘产能扩张背后的战略迷失 2024年2月2号我在搜狐号等自媒体平台发表过《"今世缘"如战略定位不精准，品牌高端化将今世无缘》的文章，结果还招来谩骂。 不知道他们为什么不认真享受我免费提供的思想大餐，还以小心之心度君子之腹来攻讦，不以开放的心态接纳各种善意且专业的第三方建议， 闭起门来搞战略，大概率会陷入自我感觉良好的境地。 打脸来得太快。 今年上半年，今世缘交出了一份令人担忧的成绩单：营收同比下滑4.81%，净利润同比下降9.46%。更值得关注的是，二季度业绩出现断崖式 下跌，营收骤降29.69%，净利润暴跌37.06%。 拉长周期看，这是今世缘自2020年以来再度遭遇业绩双降。与过去几年20%+的高速增长相比，今世缘正面临巨大的经营压力。 营收净利双降，合同负债下滑，存货周转天数延长，今世缘在行业调整期面临的困境，揭示了白酒竞争的关键不在产能规模，而在消费者心智 的占有程度。 01 业绩表象下的心智争夺困境 表面上看，今世缘的业绩下滑可归因于行业调整和消费疲软。深度剖析后却发现，这实质上是品牌心智争夺不足的集中体现。 渠道数据印证了这一判断。上半年今世缘合同负债为5.996亿元，同比下滑4.44 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the pursuit of high-quality development and long-termism rather than focusing solely on absolute revenue and net profit figures [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, the company reported revenue of 6.951 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.229 billion yuan, maintaining stability in the market, with out-of-province revenue growth exceeding industry levels [2] - The company managed to keep its performance decline within 5%, showcasing resilience compared to many peers experiencing double-digit declines [3] Strategic Focus - The management aims to build a well-known liquor brand around Jiangsu within five years and a national high-end liquor brand within ten years, adhering to four unwavering principles [2] - The company is committed to a strategy of "focusing on domestic markets while expanding into provincial markets," leveraging its brand strength in Jiangsu to penetrate surrounding areas [7][10] Product Strategy - The company is focusing on developing major products, with the "Guo Yuan" brand serving as a foundational element, and has implemented measures to stabilize pricing [4] - The "Te A" product line (priced above 300 yuan) generated revenue of 4.311 billion yuan, accounting for 62% of total revenue, serving as a stabilizing factor [3] Market Expansion - The company reported a 4.78% year-on-year revenue increase in its out-of-province market, reaching approximately 628 million yuan [11] - The expansion strategy includes targeting key markets in Shandong, Zhejiang, and Anhui, with a focus on high-quality distributors [12] Operational Efficiency - The management is enhancing operational efficiency by optimizing supplier relationships and implementing a "lean" management approach [15] - The company is investing in technological upgrades to meet current demands while preparing for future growth [17] Future Outlook - The company anticipates benefiting from the dual advantages of national expansion and a trend towards lower alcohol content as the industry recovers [18]

在白酒行业整体承压的2025年上半年，江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司（603369.SH）展现出发展韧性。 记者获悉，尽管行业呈缩量竞争态势，今世缘始终坚持追求高质量发展原则，以"做最好的自己"为主 线，坚持以消费者为中心不动摇、坚持稳价挺价不动摇、坚持大单品打造不动摇、坚持赋能服务不动 摇。上半年今世缘通过深化市场布局、优化产品结构和强化创新驱动，推动业务整体稳健发展，省外市 场拓展初见成效。 行业承压下的业绩表现稳健 2025年上半年，白酒行业继续延续深度调整态势。近期披露的中报显示，多家白酒上市公司营收和净利 润出现下滑，行业整体承压明显。 在此背景下，今世缘通过市场精细化运作、主动扶商策略应对市场变化，总体呈现经营稳健态势。半年 报显示，公司上半年实现主营收入69.51亿元，归母净利润22.29亿元，同比分别下降4.84%和9.46%。虽 然业绩小幅下滑，但在行业整体低迷的环境下，仍展现出较强的抗风险能力。 从产品部分看，上半年今世缘的产品结构持续优化。今世缘围绕主营业务"酒"和品牌核心理念"缘"，构 建了"国缘"、"今世缘"、"高沟"三大品牌矩阵，针对不同消费群体实施精准营销。上半年经营数据显 示，今世 ...