证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 13 年 月 日 分析师 李梓语 执业证书编号：S0680524120001 食品饮料 周观点：中报窗口期，预期回归、分化加剧 投资建议：1、白酒：预计半年度整体承压、结构分化，行业调整中酒 企积极求变，期待板块筑底企稳，建议关注" 优势龙头、红利延续、强 势复苏"三条主线：1）优势龙头，头部酒企份额持续提升：贵州茅台、 五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒；2）红利延续，高确定性区域酒：今世 缘（江苏格局红利）、迎驾贡酒（洞藏大单品红利）等；3）受益复苏 与风险偏好提升，弹性标的：泸州老窖、水井坊、舍得酒业、老白干 酒、港股珍酒李渡、酒鬼酒等。2、大众品：燕京珠江业绩亮眼，东鹏 增长势能强劲，中报业绩预告披露、预期调整逐步到位，重点关注优秀 成长个股：1）高景气或高成长逻辑：盐津铺子、东鹏饮料、燕京啤酒、 珠江啤酒、万辰集团、三只松鼠、百润股份、有友食品、好想你等，港 股卫龙美味等。2）政策受益或复苏改善：青岛啤酒、海天味业、新乳 业、伊利股份、重庆啤酒、安琪酵母、仙乐健康、百龙创园、安井食 品、立高食品等，港股农夫山泉、华润饮料、H&H 国际控股 ...

2025 年 07 月 13 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 食品饮料 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《白酒承压待布局，魔芋赛道涌生机 —行业周报》-2025.7.6 《白酒持续探底，新消费标的值得重 视—行业周报》-2025.6.29 《"禁酒令"纠偏催化反弹，重视板块 底部机会—行业周报》-2025.6.22 白酒布局机会渐显，新消费择优长期持有 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（联系人） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790123070080 核心观点：战略布局头部酒企，坚守优质新消费标的 7 月 7 日-7 月 11 日，食品饮料指数涨幅为 0.8%，一级子行业排名第 23，与沪深 300 基本持平，子行业中白酒（+1.4%）、保健品（+1.4%）、啤酒（+1.2%）表现 相对领先。本周食品饮料行情出现变化，新消费标的高位震荡；传统消费底部有 企稳迹象。本轮白酒行 ...

Investment Rating - The report downgrades four stocks: Fen Wine, Luzhou Laojiao, ZJLD to Neutral from Buy, and Anhui Gujing to Sell from Neutral, while maintaining Buy on Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [9][36]. Core Insights - The current cycle for the spirits industry is likely prolonged due to the impact of the new austerity policy, with uncertainties on when the cycle will bottom out [1][14]. - The report anticipates policy headwinds to persist from 2Q25 to 2Q26, followed by a modest impact in 2H26 as improper dining restrictions for civil servants normalize [2][14]. - The spirits industry is expected to see a decline in total addressable market (TAM) by 10% to 14% in 2025-27E, with a forecasted decline of over 6% in 2025 and a -2% decline in 2026 [2][14]. Summary by Sections Risk Profiling - A policy impact ranking analysis indicates that upper mid-end and commercial banquet-focused products will face greater pressure, while Moutai is expected to remain resilient due to its gifting demand and limited exposure to government-related banquet consumption [2][12]. Earnings and Valuation Analysis - The report projects +1%/+5% aggregated topline growth for 2025/26E, down from previous estimates of +6%/+9%, with high-end spirits expected to grow by +5%/+5% and upper-mid-high end spirits facing declines of -10%/+2% [2][14]. - A bear case analysis suggests potential earnings downside risks of 6% to 18% for most spirits names compared to the base case [2][14]. Industry Growth Forecast - The spirits industry growth forecast has been revised down to a greater than 6% decline in 2025 and a -2% decline in 2026, compared to prior forecasts of +4%/+3% growth [2][14]. - The report highlights that the spirits industry has been consolidating, with leading players gaining market share, particularly in the super premium segment [2][25]. Company-Specific Insights - Moutai's wholesale price stability is supported by various measures, and the report suggests that a price below RMB 1,800 could hurt distributor profits, leading to market volatility [8][14]. - The report revises down sales and net profit estimates for various companies, including a 1% to 19% reduction for most names, reflecting the impact of the new policy [36][37].

Overview - The food and beverage industry is currently facing a dual impact of oversupply and insufficient demand, leading to a restructuring of the overall pricing and competitive landscape [3][6][21] - Despite the pressure on prices and downward revisions of profit growth expectations in some sectors, the intense competition is driving innovation and reform, resulting in new business models and investment opportunities [3][6][21] Baijiu Industry - Since 2025, profound changes have occurred on both the supply and demand sides of the baijiu industry, with a coexistence of consumption upgrades and downgrades [7][22] - Some mid-range baijiu brands are under pressure, while certain local brands continue to grow rapidly, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [22][30] - Baijiu companies have proactively adjusted their supply strategies, leading to a significant slowdown in revenue growth to match demand changes [22][23] - The industry is undergoing a transformation in product and pricing strategies, suggesting a cyclical change, with recommendations to focus on companies with balanced product structures and healthy inventories [22][32] Consumer Goods - The consumer goods sector is entering a new phase where channel efficiency is paramount, driven by the rise of new retail formats such as discount stores and membership supermarkets [8][36] - New business models are disrupting traditional channel barriers and providing better value-for-money options, leading to structural growth opportunities [8][36][37] - The focus for investment should be on channel enterprises and related manufacturing companies, as new retail formats continue to gain traction [8][37] - The market for snacks and beverages is expanding rapidly, with the retail value in the lower-tier markets reaching 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024 [52][56] New Product Trends - There is still room for innovation in certain niche markets, with segments like leisure konjac products experiencing rapid growth [9][70] - The demand for high-quality products remains strong, with a significant portion of consumers willing to pay more for better quality [42][43] Market Structure - The industry is witnessing a consolidation phase, particularly in sectors like dairy, beer, and yeast, where competition intensity is decreasing and leading brands are gaining long-term competitive advantages [10][36] - Traditional sectors like yellow wine are also stabilizing, with improved profitability and potential for revaluation as market dynamics shift [10][36] Retail Channel Dynamics - The rise of membership supermarkets and discount retail channels is reshaping consumer purchasing behavior, with a notable increase in the number of snack retail outlets [48][56] - Companies like Youyou Foods and Lihigh Foods are effectively leveraging these new channels to drive growth and improve profitability [48][70]

东吴证券认为，本轮"反内卷"政策是宏观经济层面为缓解价格水平承压和资源配置低效问题的必然选 择，解决了当前新兴优势制造业中产能重复建设及恶性价格竞争带来的"囚徒困境"。短期内市场表现将 呈现结构性分化，新兴产业中受益于竞争整治和资源优化配置的企业具备改善空间，而传统行业则表现 稳健，整体市场偏均衡格局，成长与防御并重。 财通证券（601108）最新观点指出，行情再攀新高阶段，新一轮核心资产主线行情或开启，持续推荐龙 头化、国产化、全球化三大主线。当前"反内卷"催化下，龙头化有望跟进接力行情。关注制造（轨交、 工程机械）等、消费（乳品、家居、饲料等）、周期（能去产能的农化链、电新链、化工链，详见专题 研究）板块。 7月9日，A股震荡攀升，沪指时隔8个月重返3500点，多只银行股再创新高，创新药概念股反复活跃， 托育服务概念股普涨，消费板块表现不俗。 广发证券认为，白酒行业2025年有望迎来"估值-业绩"双底，当前已进入中周期买点。板块股息率与十 年期国债收益率比值较高，配置性价比显现。建议关注行业出清后的需求恢复，核心推荐标的包括山西 汾酒（600809）、今世缘（603369）、古井贡酒（000596）、贵州 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the liquor sector, particularly Moutai, is stabilizing in price, and attention should be paid to the second-quarter performance of the sector [3][12]. - The food and beverage sector saw a slight increase of 0.74% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.67 percentage points [2][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer demand and market health, with companies focusing on destocking and promoting sales in the short term while nurturing consumer engagement and internationalization in the long term [14][21]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - Moutai's stock buyback reached 3.3821 million shares, accounting for 0.27% of total shares, with a total expenditure of 5.202 billion yuan [3][12]. - The liquor index increased by 1.2%, indicating a potential valuation recovery driven by incremental policies [14]. - Recommended stocks include Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, which have demonstrated resilience through multiple cycles [14][21]. Consumer Goods - The report notes that the recent warm weather is favorable for beer consumption, with expectations for slight sales growth among major beer brands [15]. - The snack sector is experiencing a trend of differentiation, with recommendations for companies that are innovating in products and channels [16][17]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the seasoning industry, such as Yihai International and Haitian Flavoring, as they show resilience [18]. Frozen Foods - The frozen food sector is stable, with companies actively developing new products despite the off-season [19]. - Anji Food's recent IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange raised 2.302 billion HKD, which will be used to enhance sales networks and optimize supply chains [19]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand, with supply pressures easing and potential policy catalysts on the horizon [20]. - The report recommends focusing on leading dairy companies that are well-positioned for upward elasticity in 2025 [20]. Beverages - The beverage industry is entering a peak season, with expectations for continued growth in segments like sugar-free tea and energy drinks [21]. - The report recommends East Peak Beverage, which is accelerating its national and platform expansion [21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the publication of food safety inspection results for the first quarter of 2025 in Qingjiangpu District, highlighting the compliance and non-compliance of various food products [3][4]. - A total of 299 food samples were inspected, with only 1 batch found to be non-compliant, indicating a high compliance rate of approximately 99.67% [3][4]. - The local market supervision administration has mandated the recall of the non-compliant product and required the responsible businesses to investigate the product's distribution and implement corrective actions [3][4]. Group 2 - The inspection covered various categories of food products, including pastries, snacks, and alcoholic beverages, with detailed records of the sampled items and their compliance status [4][5][6]. - Specific non-compliance issues included the presence of prohibited substances such as dehydroacetic acid and excessive total bacterial counts in certain products [4][5]. - The inspection results are part of ongoing efforts to ensure food safety and protect consumer health in the region [3][4].

Core Points - The company held its 14th meeting of the 5th Board of Directors, where all 11 participating directors voted in favor of the proposals presented [1] - The board approved the annual evaluation report for the "Quality Improvement, Efficiency Enhancement, and Return to Shareholders" action plan for 2024 [1] - The board also approved the action plan for 2025 under the same theme, with unanimous support from all directors [1][2] Summary by Sections Board Meeting - The meeting was conducted in accordance with the Company Law and the company's articles of association, with all 11 directors participating in the voting [1] Action Plans - The 2024 annual evaluation report for the "Quality Improvement, Efficiency Enhancement, and Return to Shareholders" action plan was approved with a unanimous vote [1] - The 2025 action plan under the same initiative was also approved, reflecting the company's commitment to enhancing quality and efficiency while ensuring returns to shareholders [1][2]

证券代码：603369 证券简称：今世缘 公告编号：2025-025 江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司 | 增持主体名称 | 今世缘集团有限公司 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 控股股东或实控人 | ?是 | ?否 | | | | 控股股东或实控人的一致行动人 | | ?是 | ?否 | | 增持主体身份 | 直接持股 5%以上股东 | | ?是 | ?否 | | | 董事、监事和高级管理人员 | | ?是 | ?否 | | | ?其他：__________ | | | | | 增持前持股数量 | 561,049,038 股 | | | | 增持前持股比例 （占总股本） 增持主体基于对公司未来发展的信心及长期投资价值 后续增持股份资金安排 关于控股股东增持公司股份计划实施进展 暨增持时间过半的公告 本公司董事会、全体董事及相关股东保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ? 增持计划基本情况：江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司（以下简称"公 司"）于 2024 年 12 月 31 日披 ...

证券代码：603369 证券简称：今世缘 公告编号：2025-025 江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司 关于控股股东增持公司股份计划实施进展 暨增持时间过半的公告 本公司董事会、全体董事及相关股东保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 增持计划基本情况：江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司（以下简称"公 司"）于 2024 年 12 月 31 日披露《关于控股股东增持公司股份计划 的公告》（公告编号：2024-037），公司控股股东今世缘集团有限公 司（以下简称"今世缘集团"）拟自 2024 年 12 月 31 日起 12 个月 内，通过上海证券交易所交易系统以集中竞价方式增持公司无限售 流通 A 股股份，拟增持金额为人民币 2.7 亿元至 5.4 亿元（含本数）， 增持价格不超过 46 元/股（含本数），资金来源为自有及自筹资金。 增持计划的实施进展：截至本公告披露日，本次增持计划时间已过 半，今世缘集团已累计增持公司股份 8,755,895 股，占公司总股本 的 0.7023%，合计增持金额 386,850,064.89 元(不含交易费 ...