证券研究报告 | 2025年11月05日 今世缘（603369.SH） 优于大市 2025Q3 延续调整，净利润降幅环比扩大 第三季度延续调整，净利润降幅环比扩大。2025Q1-3 公司实现营业总收入 88.82 亿元/同比-10.66%，归母净利润 25.49 亿元/同比-17.39%；其中 2025Q3 营业总 收入 19.31 亿元/同比-26.78%，归母净利润 3.20 亿元/同比-48.69%。 2025Q3 收入延续下滑趋势，预计百元价位产品、苏中区域表现较好。分产品看， 2025Q3 特 A+类收入 11.23 亿元/同比-38.04%，预计大单品四开、对开受政策影 响下滑较大；特 A 类收入 6.39 亿元/同比-1.12%，预计 100 元价位淡雅受益于需 求韧性和渠道推力表现较好，或承担主要增长；其他产品收入 1.15 亿元/同比 -37.66%。分渠道看，2025Q3直销（含团购）渠道0.96亿元/小基数下同比+65.21%， 批发代理渠道 17.91 亿元/同比-30.27%。分区域看，2025Q3 省内收入 17.01 亿 元/同比-29.79%，其中苏中同比+1.06%，预计主要 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月05日 第三季度延续调整，净利润降幅环比扩大。2025Q1-3 公司实现营业总收入 88.82 亿元/同比-10.66%，归母净利润 25.49 亿元/同比-17.39%；其中 2025Q3 营业总 收入 19.31 亿元/同比-26.78%，归母净利润 3.20 亿元/同比-48.69%。 2025Q3 收入延续下滑趋势，预计百元价位产品、苏中区域表现较好。分产品看， 2025Q3 特 A+类收入 11.23 亿元/同比-38.04%，预计大单品四开、对开受政策影 响下滑较大；特 A 类收入 6.39 亿元/同比-1.12%，预计 100 元价位淡雅受益于需 求韧性和渠道推力表现较好，或承担主要增长；其他产品收入 1.15 亿元/同比 -37.66%。分渠道看，2025Q3直销（含团购）渠道0.96亿元/小基数下同比+65.21%， 批发代理渠道 17.91 亿元/同比-30.27%。分区域看，2025Q3 省内收入 17.01 亿 元/同比-29.79%，其中苏中同比+1.06%，预计主要系淡雅渠道下沉贡献；省外收 入 1.8 亿元/同比-13.79%，受需求普降影响延续 ...

【中国白酒网】最近十年，今世缘犹如一匹低调的"黑马"。 虽然今世缘没有古井贡酒、山西汾酒那样锋芒毕露，但借助全方位的市场运作，在先后精准踩中次 高端及大众白酒市场扩张机遇后，仅用几年时间今世缘便实现了规模上的跃进，营收从起初的20亿元出 头快速增长至如今的超过100亿元。 然而，"黑马"也难抵行业的逆周期。 根据最新披露的三季报，今年前三季度今世缘分别实现营收和净利润88.82亿元和25.49亿元，营收 和净利润增速分别为-10.66%和-17.39%，其中三季度实现营收和净利润19.31亿元和3.203亿元，营收和 净利润增速分别为-26.68%和-48.69%。 拉长周期来看，这也是近十年以来今世缘交出过最差的一份三季报。 受业绩负增长的影响，今年以来今世缘的股价表现也十分疲软。截至11月3日收盘，今世缘股价报 收38.79元/股，总市值为483.6亿元，今年以来今世缘股价累计下跌了11.9%，而同期上证指数上涨了 18.64%，今世缘明显跑输大盘。另外，和最高点64.02元/股相比，今世缘如今股价已接近"腰斩"。无论 是从业绩还是股价走势来看，在经历了过去十年的爆发式增长以后，今世缘的"增长神话"已经破 ...

2025年白酒三季报落下帷幕，行业整体承压，深度调整仍在持续。 三季度区域白酒集体承压 当下的白酒市场，正处于多重因素交织的复杂局面中。从宏观消费环境来看，理性消费、品质消费的趋 势日益深化，传统的政务消费早已让位于更为挑剔和谨慎的商务与大众消费。在"少喝酒、喝好酒"的共 识下，消费者的选择更加聚焦于品牌力、品质和性价比，这无疑对品牌张力相对较弱、产品结构尚在升 级过程中的区域酒企构成了巨大挑战。 与此同时，行业内部的"马太效应"持续加剧。以茅台、五粮液等为代表的全国性高端名酒，凭借其强大 的品牌护城河在市场波动中展现出更强的抗风险能力，不仅牢牢占据着千元价格带的绝对主导地位，其 渠道下沉的触角也正深入区域酒企的腹地，形成了居高临下的竞争压力。这使得区域酒企原本赖以生存 的"根据地"市场受到侵蚀，向外扩张的难度倍增。 此外，渠道生态的深刻变革也为酒企带来了新的课题。传统流通渠道动销缓慢，社会库存压力居高不 下，而新兴的线上渠道、社群营销虽在探索，但短期内难以成为业绩增长的主要引擎。在这种"前有强 敌，后有库存"的夹击之下，区域酒企的利润空间被严重挤压，反映在财报上，便是营收与净利润的双 双下滑。 比如今世缘前 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes a turning point in supply and demand equilibrium, particularly in the liquor industry, with a focus on the accelerated clearance of inventory in the baijiu sector [3][15][21] - The report suggests that the liquor industry is transitioning from a "U-shaped adjustment" to a "V-shaped adjustment," indicating a potential for recovery as market pessimism is already reflected in stock prices [15][25] - The report highlights the resilience of consumer staples, particularly in the beverage and snack sectors, which are expected to show strong growth despite the challenges faced by the liquor industry [3][12] Group 2: Baijiu Industry Analysis - The baijiu sector is experiencing a significant adjustment, with sales and inventory levels rapidly clearing, particularly in the high-end and mid-range segments [3][15][21] - The report notes that the current adjustment cycle has a longer duration compared to previous cycles, with a single-quarter decline exceeding previous lows, indicating a deeper market correction [15][25] - Key companies to watch in the baijiu sector include Shanxi Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, and Moutai, with a focus on both growth and stable performers [3][21][28] Group 3: Beer and Beverage Sector Insights - The beer industry is characterized by stable pricing and sales, with a recommendation to focus on regional leaders that have competitive advantages [3][41] - The beverage sector is noted for its structural growth, with leading companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring expected to perform well [3][41] - The report indicates that the beer industry's profitability is improving due to cost advantages and a stable competitive landscape, despite facing demand pressures [41][42] Group 4: Consumer Goods and Snacks - The consumer goods sector is showing signs of recovery, with food raw materials and health products still in a growth phase, indicating high elasticity in certain categories [3][12] - The snack industry is highlighted for its innovation and growth potential, with companies like Three Squirrels and Wei Long expected to drive future growth [3][12] - The report suggests that the overall consumer goods market is stabilizing, with a focus on companies that demonstrate strong innovation and channel expansion capabilities [3][12]

食品饮料/ 自酒中 2025 年 11 月 04 日 白酒 2025 年三季报总结 25Q3 基本面加速探底,板块进入战略配置期 相关研究 《板块进入战略配置期 -- 食品饮料行业 周报 20251027-20251031》 2025/11/01 《持仓全面下降 回到 17 年初水平— - 賞 品饮料 2025 年三季度基金持仓分析》 2025/11/01 《季报表现分化 关注经营质量 -- 食品饮 料行业周报 20251020-20251024》 2025/10/25 证券分析师 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 目昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王子昂 (8621)23297818× wanqza@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务 本期投资提示: 投资分析意见：25Q3 以五粮液为代表的白酒上市公司报表大幅下滑,而公募基金在食 品饮料板块的持仓水平继续下降，回到 2017Q1 水平。我们更新观点 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 这些都让萦绕全行业三年的终极疑问，显得愈发沉重迫切。 中国白酒行业到底见底了吗？当下究竟是周期性调整的尾声，还是结构性衰退的开端？ 为回答这个问题，我构建了一套涵盖6类18项"见底"前瞻指标的分析系统，结合三季报核心数据与行业实时动态，对照白酒产业史上两次危机经验 和全球烈酒周期规律，尝试解析本轮调整的核心逻辑与未来走向。 01 财报的寒意 2025年三季度，白酒行业"强者愈强、弱者愈弱"的分化格局达到历史极值。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 方醒鹿 来源：雪球 截至10月31日，白酒行业上市公司的三季报全部出齐。 超预期的惨淡数据与最新行业动态相互印证，库存高企与价格倒挂的恶性循环持续加剧，消费需求疲软与行业出清加速并行，此前众人预期的"触 底反弹"化为泡影。 仅少数头部企业维持增长韧性，多数次高端及区域酒企陷入营收利润双降的困境，行业出清速度显著加快，印证了"凛冬之下，唯有龙头抗寒"的残 酷现实。 头部酒企增速放缓但韧性凸显，成为行业"压舱石"。 贵州茅台以绝对优势保持行业定力，前三季度实现营业总收入13 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the liquor industry, particularly for high-quality companies, indicating a strategic allocation period has begun [2][7]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a significant decline in performance, with major companies like Wuliangye reporting substantial drops in revenue and net profit. The public fund holdings in the food and beverage sector have also decreased to levels not seen since Q1 2017 [2][7]. - Despite the current challenges, the report suggests that long-term investors can start pricing high-quality companies as the market is expected to reach a predictable bottom in the near future [2][7]. - Key recommendations include focusing on premium liquor brands such as Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye, while also keeping an eye on brands like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhuijiu [2][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Fundamental Analysis - The liquor industry reported a total revenue of CNY 310.28 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.48%, with net profit falling by 6.63% to CNY 122.69 billion. The revenue decline is more pronounced in lower-tier brands compared to national brands [3][16]. - In Q3 2025, the industry generated CNY 76.31 billion in revenue, down 18.4% year-on-year, with net profit dropping 22.0% to CNY 28.21 billion. National brands outperformed lower-tier brands in both revenue and profit growth [3][19]. - The net profit margin for the liquor industry in Q3 2025 was 38.0%, a decline of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to decreased gross margins and increased tax rates [3][20]. 2. Valuation Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the absolute PE level for the liquor sector stands at 18.7x, below the historical average of 27.6x since 2011. The relative PE ratio compared to the Shanghai Composite Index is 1.14x, also below the historical average of 2.01x [4][10]. - The report indicates that the current valuations of leading companies reflect market expectations of mid-term demand pressure. If demand improves, the industry could return to a phase of simultaneous valuation and performance recovery [4][10]. 3. Company Performance and Profitability Forecast - The report highlights that the profitability of the liquor industry is under pressure, with significant declines in net profit margins across various brands. The national brands have seen a smaller decline compared to lower-tier brands [3][22]. - The report provides a detailed forecast of operational goals and profitability estimates for key liquor companies, emphasizing the need for strategic adjustments in response to market conditions [4][10].

Group 1: China Petroleum - In Q3 2025, the company reported a 14% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, demonstrating resilience in the oil and gas sector [4][5] - The company achieved a total revenue of 21,693 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%, with a net profit of 1,263 billion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year [4][5] - Capital expenditures for 2025 are budgeted at 262.2 billion yuan, focusing on exploration and development in key basins and upgrading refining and chemical projects [6][7] Group 2: Shanghai Film - The company reported a revenue of 361 million yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 101.6%, with a net profit of 86 million yuan, up 123.51% year-on-year [10][11] - The success of the film "Wang Wang Mountain Little Monster" significantly contributed to the revenue growth, with a box office exceeding 1.7 billion yuan [11][13] - The company is actively developing its IP business, with multiple upcoming projects expected to enhance future growth [11][13] Group 3: Foton Motor - Foton Motor's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 45.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, with a net profit of 1.11 billion yuan, up 157.5% year-on-year [15][16] - The company achieved a market share of 12.6% in heavy truck wholesale, the highest in 10 years, with significant growth in both domestic and export sales [16][17] - The annualized ROE improved to the highest level since 2013, reflecting enhanced profitability and cash flow quality [18][19] Group 4: Bojun Technology - Bojun Technology reported a revenue of 4.075 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42.36%, with a net profit of 627 million yuan, up 70.47% year-on-year [20][21] - The company is expanding its production capacity and has established multiple subsidiaries across key regions, enhancing its operational efficiency [22][23] - The human-robot business is steadily advancing, with ongoing collaborations in intelligent robotics [22][23] Group 5: Dingyang Technology - Dingyang Technology achieved a revenue of 431 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.67%, with a net profit of 111 million yuan, up 21.49% year-on-year [24][25] - The company is focusing on high-end product development, with significant growth in high-end product sales [25][26] - The overall gross margin remains high at 61.13%, reflecting effective cost management and product pricing strategies [26] Group 6: KEBODA - KEBODA reported a revenue of approximately 17.33 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.76%, with a net profit of about 2.18 billion yuan [27][28] - The company is expanding its global presence, with overseas revenue growth outpacing domestic markets [28][29] - KEBODA's acquisition of intelligent technology is expected to enhance its product offerings and market competitiveness [29][30] Group 7: Desay SV - Desay SV reported a revenue of approximately 76.92 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.63%, with a net profit of about 5.65 billion yuan [31][32] - The company is focusing on expanding its product structure and optimizing customer relationships to mitigate short-term performance pressures [32][33] - Desay SV is actively exploring new business areas, including smart transportation and autonomous delivery [33][34] Group 8: Aishide - Aishide reported a revenue of 393.75 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 31.47%, with a net profit of 33.7 million yuan [35][36] - The company is undergoing a strategic adjustment to focus on high-margin core businesses, showing signs of operational improvement [36][37] - Aishide is establishing an industry fund to invest in emerging technologies, enhancing its growth potential [38][39]

今世缘的高档酒产品明显失速了。 近日， " 江苏 第二大 白酒 企业 " 今世缘（ 603369.SH ）发布 2025 年前三季度业绩报告和经营数据，显示多 个经营指标同步下滑。 2025年前三季度，今世缘白酒产品中的"特A+" 类产品 （出厂指导价300 元（含税）以上 ）营收仅54.35亿元， 同比缩水超10亿元。 方正证券分析师指出， 25 年 Q3 今世缘 销售回款 20.44 亿元，同比 下降 33.3% 。 数据显示， A 股 20 家白酒企业中仅两家前三季度实现营收与利润双增，超半数企业净利下降逾两成。今世缘虽处 行业中游水平，但由于市场高度集中于江苏本地，其抗风险能力明显低于全国性酒企。 导语： "百亿酒企"今世缘想好下一个五年目标了吗？ 业绩失速：下滑幅度创近年之最 在业绩下滑的背景下，今世缘的 负债压力 也 在累积。 财报显示， 今世缘货币资金 约 51.77 亿元，同比 缩水约 9.81 亿元，同比降幅 15.93% ； 而 长期借款上升 约 124% 至 4.27 亿元；存货 61.02 亿元，同比上升 9.57% 。资产负债率为 32.56% ，略高于行业均值。 更值得关注的则是今 ...