2025 年 11 月 03 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 证券分析师： 刘洁铭 S0350521110006 [Table_Title] 延续出清，蓄力长期 联系人 ： 郝天宇 S0350124060016 haoty@ghzq.com.cn ——今世缘（603369）2025 年三季报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/11/03 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 今世缘 | -1.3% | -1.3% | -10.3% | | 沪深 300 | 0.3% | 14.8% | 19.6% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/11/03 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 38.79 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | | | 37.82-57.36 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 48,363.37 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 48,363.37 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 124,680.00 | | 流通股本（万股） | | | 124,680.00 | | 日均成交 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in total revenue and net profit for Q1-Q3 2025, with total revenue of 8.882 billion and net profit of 2.549 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.66% and 17.39% respectively. The Q3 figures showed a more significant decline, with total revenue at 1.931 billion and net profit at 320 million, down 26.78% and 48.69% year-on-year [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company's total revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 8.882 billion, 2.549 billion, and 2.545 billion respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 10.66%, 17.39%, and 17.23% [1]. - In Q3 2025, total revenue was 1.931 billion, with net profit at 320 million and net profit excluding non-recurring items at 321 million, reflecting year-on-year declines of 26.78%, 48.69%, and 48.95% respectively [1]. Product Performance - The proportion of premium products (特A类及以上) continues to increase, with revenue from these products accounting for 94.83% of total revenue in Q1-Q3 2025, up 0.44 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Despite external pressures, the company's mass-market products, particularly the淡雅系列, are expected to perform well, while core high-end products may see a decline due to market conditions [2]. Regional Strategy - The company is focusing on regional expansion and market penetration, with Q1-Q3 2025 revenue from domestic markets down 12.40% and from external markets up 0.06% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, domestic revenue fell by 29.79%, while external revenue decreased by 13.79% [2]. - The company has increased its number of distributors, adding 4 in the domestic market and 80 in external markets by the end of Q3 2025 compared to the end of 2024 [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 73.8%, with a more significant drop in Q3 to 75.0% [3]. - The sales expense ratio increased by 2.8 percentage points to 18.1% for Q1-Q3 2025, with Q3 showing a 9.5 percentage point increase to 30.0%, primarily due to increased marketing expenditures [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from strong demand in the Jiangsu market and stable external market expansion, maintaining a long-term growth momentum [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards, with expected revenues of 10.15 billion, 10.67 billion, and 11.36 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.1% in 2025 but growth in subsequent years [3]. - The estimated EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 2.11, 2.21, and 2.31 yuan, with a downward revision of 15% for 2025 [3].

事件：公司发布 2025 年三季报，25Q1-Q3 实现收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利 润 88.82/25.49/25.45 亿元，分别同比-10.7%/-17.4%/-17.2%，25Q3 实现收入/ 归母净利润 / 扣 非 归 母 净 利 润 19.31/3.20/3.21 亿元，分别同比 -26.8%/-48.7%/-48.9%，符合市场预期。Q3 销售收现同比-33.3%，期末合同负 债 5.20 亿元，同比-4.4%。 百元价格带特 A 类需求稳定，区域上苏中市场继续扩张。25 年前三季度，公司 分产品来看，特 A+类/特 A 类/A 类/B 类/CD 类收入分别为 54.35/28.71/3.01/1. 07/0.42 亿元，同比-16.0%/+0.3%/-18.0%/-13.3%/-30.6%；分区域来看，淮安/ 南京/苏南/苏中/盐城/淮海/省外收入分别为 16.78/20.69/9.78/14.75/9.48/8.08/8. 04 亿元，同比-13.6%/-14.0%/-18.8%/+0.1%/-13.3%/-16.2%/+0.1%。Q3 特 A+ 类/特 A 类/A 类/B 类/CD 类 ...

Group 1 - The core transaction on October 31 involved a block trade of 59,000 shares of Jinshiyuan, with a transaction value of 2.0314 million yuan, at a price of 34.43 yuan, representing an 11.31% discount compared to the closing price of the day [2][3] - Over the past three months, Jinshiyuan has recorded a total of 8 block trades, with a cumulative transaction value of 19.1528 million yuan [2] - The closing price of Jinshiyuan on the day of the report was 38.82 yuan, reflecting a 1.49% increase, with a daily turnover rate of 0.88% and a total transaction amount of 425 million yuan [2][3] Group 2 - The latest margin financing balance for Jinshiyuan is 374 million yuan, which has increased by 15.8691 million yuan over the past five days, marking a 4.43% growth [3] - Jinshiyuan Liquor Co., Ltd. was established on December 23, 1997, with a registered capital of 124.6800037 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with regional liquor companies facing significant pressure, as evidenced by declining revenues and profits across the board in the third quarter of 2025 [2][3]. Performance Pressure - All regional liquor companies reported a decline in both revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, with over ten companies showing this trend [3]. - Specific companies like Jinshiyuan and Qiaojia Wine experienced revenue declines of 10.66% and 19.79%, respectively, with net profits dropping by 17.39% and 79.85% [4][5]. Contract Liabilities - Contract liabilities, which reflect market expectations, have generally decreased for regional liquor companies, indicating cautious outlooks from distributors [7]. - Only Tianyoude Wine saw a slight increase of 0.1% in contract liabilities, while others like Shunxin Agriculture and Jinshiyuan experienced significant declines of 74.83% and 67.35%, respectively [7]. Market Dynamics - The industry is facing a shift from traditional distribution models to online and instant retail, which poses new challenges for liquor companies [8][10]. - The "public banquet prohibition" has weakened old demand while new demand is still developing, leading to high inventory levels and reduced purchasing willingness among distributors [8]. Third Quarter Insights - In the third quarter, only two companies, Jiugui Wine and Jinzongzi Wine, reported growth in both revenue and net profit, while others faced severe declines, with net profit drops exceeding 30% for most [6][9]. - Jiugui Wine's revenue was 1.98 billion yuan, a 0.78% increase, while Jinzongzi Wine's revenue was 1.44 billion yuan, up 3.73% [9]. Future Trends - The liquor industry is expected to evolve towards quality, youthfulness, and internationalization, with a focus on digitalization and experiential marketing [10]. - Companies are likely to strengthen channel control and build partnerships with distributors to stabilize prices and reach consumers directly [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported lower-than-expected performance, with a 10.7% year-on-year decline in total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, amounting to 8.882 billion [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was 2.549 billion, reflecting a 17.4% year-on-year decrease [6] - The report predicts a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 2.8 billion, 2.94 billion, and 3.22 billion respectively, indicating a year-on-year change of -18.0%, +5.0%, and +9.6% [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 10.127 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 12.3% [5] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 2.22 yuan, down from 2.74 yuan in 2024 [5] - The gross profit margin for 2025 is expected to be 74.4%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 17.1% [5] - The company’s operating cash flow for Q3 2025 was -168 million, a significant drop from 983 million in the same period last year [6] Revenue Breakdown - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.93 billion, a 26.8% year-on-year decline [6] - The revenue from the premium product line (Special A+) was 1.12 billion, down 38.0% year-on-year [6] - The revenue from the domestic market in Q3 2025 was 1.7 billion, a decrease of 29.8% year-on-year [6]

今世缘 Jiangsu King's Luck (603369 CH) 研究报告 Research Report 31 Oct 2025 今世缘 2025 年三季报点评：市场份额稳固，报表延续出清 Market share remains solid, with continued clearance of financial statements [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 Rmb38.82 目标价 Rmb51.00 HTI ESG 3.8-4.0-4.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 义利评级 BB+ 来源 : 盟浪 . Reproduced by permission; no further distribution 市值 Rmb48.40bn / US$6.83bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$57.44mn 发行股票数目 1,247mn ...

| 交易日期 | 证券简称 | 证券代码 | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量( * ) 买入营业部 | | | | 卖出营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-10-31 | 今世缘 | 603369 | 34.43 203.14 | 5.9 | 华泰证券股份互限 公司准安器发在目 | 华泰证券股份互限 公司准安器采取 | | 10月31日，今世缘大宗交易成交5.9万股，成交额203.14万元，占当日总成交额的0.48%，成交价34.43元，较市场收盘价38.82元折价11.31%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the liquor industry, particularly the white liquor sector, is in a "supply clearing" phase, with expectations for accelerated clearing as Q3 earnings reports are released [1][2] - Leading companies in the food and beverage sector, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, have released their Q3 earnings reports, which are anticipated to reflect the industry's recovery [1] - Pacific Securities suggests that the current phase of the liquor industry shows strong similarities to the adjustment period from 2013 to 2015, indicating a potential buying opportunity [1][2] Group 2 - The valuation recovery of the liquor sector is expected to occur in two stages, with the first stage driven by improved demand and market expectations for performance and pricing [1][2] - The second stage of valuation recovery is anticipated when the supply-demand relationship improves, leading to a return of market confidence in the long-term value of liquor assets, with an expected industry PE central of 30x by Q4 2026 [2] - The current PE ratio of the National Food Index is approximately 21 times, which is lower than over 90% of the time in the past five years, indicating potential for valuation recovery [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.93 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 26.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 320 million yuan, down 48.7% year-on-year [1] - Cumulative revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 8.88 billion yuan, a decline of 10.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.55 billion yuan, down 17.4% year-on-year [1] - The company is experiencing pressure on sales, particularly in the high-end and above segments, while the mid-range products are performing relatively stable [2] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected diluted EPS of 2.15, 2.28, and 2.48 yuan per share for the respective years [3] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2025 revenue breakdown: Special A+ category (above 300 yuan) revenue was 1.12 billion yuan, down 38% year-on-year; Special A category (100-300 yuan) revenue was 640 million yuan, down 1% year-on-year; A category (50-100 yuan) revenue was 70 million yuan, down 37% year-on-year; B category (20-50 yuan) revenue was 30 million yuan, down 27% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 75.0%, a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to product mix effects [1] - The net profit margin decreased by 7.1 percentage points year-on-year to 16.6% due to rising expense ratios [1] Regional Performance Summary - Revenue from the domestic market in Q3 2025 was 1.7 billion yuan, down 14% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 200 million yuan, down 30% year-on-year [2] - The Suzhong region showed positive growth, benefiting from years of market accumulation, while some areas outside the province are considering early introduction of new products [2] Earnings Forecasts - The report projects a decline in earnings due to overall industry pressure, with revised EPS estimates for 2025-2027 being 2.15, 2.28, and 2.48 yuan per share, respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 18, 17, and 15 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3]