Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4][8] Core Views - The company is focusing on capacity expansion and enhancing its intelligent production capabilities, with total production capacity expected to reach 80,000 tons by the end of 2024, doubling from the end of 2023 [1][2] - The company has established a strong competitive position in the mid-range high-end liquor market, with its "Guoyuan" brand becoming a leading brand in Jiangsu province [1][2] - The company is actively launching high-end products, including the new "Nongxiang Classic·Guoyuan 2049," which will be unveiled at the Shanghai Wine Expo [1][2] Summary by Sections Production Capacity and Technological Advancement - As of the end of 2023, the company's liquor production capacity reached 40,000 tons per year, with plans to expand to 60,000 tons following the launch of a new 20,000-ton production line [1] - The company aims to achieve over 100,000 tons of raw liquor capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a storage capacity of 600,000 tons in ceramic jars [1] Market Position and Product Strategy - The "Guoyuan" brand has become the leading brand in the mid-range high-end liquor segment, with significant sales growth in the 500 yuan price range [1] - The company plans to optimize its product structure, focusing on the 600-800 yuan price range in the Yangtze River Delta region and nurturing high-end consumer groups for its "V9" product [1][2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 39.61 billion, 48.65 billion, and 57.22 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.16, 3.88, and 4.56 yuan [1][3] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 12, 10, and 8 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 45.60 [1][2][5] Core Views - The company has launched 20,000 tons of new production capacity, increasing total capacity to approximately 60,000 tons, which supports long-term development through a commitment to quality [2][3] - The company is expected to achieve steady growth with a focus on upgrading its core products and expanding its market presence both domestically and internationally under its "Three Focus" strategy [2][4] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at RMB 3.04, RMB 3.64, and RMB 4.31 respectively, with a reference price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15x for 2024 [2][7] Summary by Sections Production Capacity and Strategy - The company has successfully completed a significant technological upgrade, resulting in a total production capacity increase from 38,000 tons to approximately 60,000 tons [3] - The "Three-Step" strategic goal emphasizes scaling production, technological upgrades, and enhancing raw liquor capacity, aiming for a "Double Hundred Billion Era" by 2035 [3] Market Performance - The company has maintained a steady performance in its core product, Guoyuan Si Kai, which has shown competitive strength in the mid-to-high-end market [4] - New high-end products, such as the RMB 1,000 strategic product "Guoyuan 2049," have been introduced to further enhance the company's high-end market positioning [4] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are projected to grow from RMB 10,100 million in 2023 to RMB 18,083 million by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19% [7][12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from RMB 3,136 million in 2023 to RMB 5,401 million by 2026, with a similar CAGR of around 18% [7][12]

| --- | --- | --- | |--------------|-----------------------------------------|-------| | 2024 | 年 09 月 23 日 | | | 研究所： | | | | 证券分析师： | 刘洁铭 S0350521110006 liujm@ghzq.com.cn | | | 证券分析师： | 秦一方 S0350523120001 qinyf@ghzq.com.cn | | 评级：买入(维持) 公司研究 [Table_Title] 扩产夯实"双百亿"基础，创新助力高质量发展 ——今世缘（603369）公司动态研究 投资要点: 最近一年走势 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|-----------|--------|------------------| | 相对沪深 300 \n表现 | 表现 \n1M | 3M | 2024/09/20 \n12M | | 今世缘 | -8.7% | -20.9% | -37.5% | | 沪深 300 | -4.0% | -8.6 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 今世缘（603369）跟踪分析报告 强推（维持） 扩产能&推新品，后百亿持续进阶 目标价：75 元 当前价：37.62 元 事项： 9 月 19 日今世缘 20000 吨酿酒项目开酿仪式正式启动，公司在扩充产能、智 能化发展的道路上迈出了坚实一步。同时公司董事长就市场关心的发展目标、 经营策略、产品布局等方面进行坦诚交流，我们前往参会，核心反馈如下： 评论： 发展坚持实事求是，着眼长期稳中求进。目前白酒外部需求和中秋动销确实存 在一定压力，但白酒需求仍具一定韧性，且公司表示今世缘产品实际动销仍好 于竞品和公司内部悲观预期，后续公司会结合国庆白酒需求及自身情况，兼顾 进取性和实际情况，保持快于行业整体的增长，坚持实事求是和高质量发展目 标，稳中求进、好中求快，适度调整年度目标和明年发展规划。 战略上重视人才、品牌打造和内部改革，持续加强省内深耕和省外培育。公司 保持既定战略不变，发展重心一是人才培养，全员竞争上岗，做到提升老人、 号召能人、储备新人、后继有人。二是产品品牌打造和提升，聚焦提高国缘品 牌高度和美誉度。三是深化改革激活动能。具体经营战术上，省内坚定攻城拔 寨、深耕布局，省外坚 ...

公司研究·公司快评 食品饮料·白酒Ⅱ 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 张向伟 zhangxiangwei@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980523090001 联系人： 张未艾 021-61761031 zhangweiai@guosen.com.cn 优于大市 今世缘（603369.SH） 2 万吨产能开酿赋能品质升级，千元价位推新完善产品布局 事项： 事件：9 月 19 日今世缘酒业在南厂区召开以"醅酿醇香，智造未来"为主题的 2 万吨酿酒项目开酿仪式， 伴随此次 2 万吨浓香白酒投产，公司目前总产能将达到 6 万吨；本次活动期间公司成功召开"国缘 2049" 新品鉴定会，定位千元价位带高端战略新品，推进公司高端化战略。 国信食饮观点：1）公司不断推动产能扩张和智能化酿造，去年年产能突破 4 万吨，随着此次 2 万吨浓香 白酒开酿，总产能站上 6 万吨，预计明年总产能达到 8 万吨；2）行业存量竞争背景下品质是最大的生产 力，公司产能扩张解决了"长期结构提升战略"和"短期腰部放量战术"的平衡问题；3）公司推出新品 "国缘 2049"，定位千元价位战略单品，进一步拉升国缘品牌形象，为 ...

2024 年 09 月 22 日 研 究 报 告 公 研 究 南厂区 2 万吨投产，新品 2049 即将上市 —今世缘（603369.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-09-20 | | 当前股价（元） | 37.62 | | 总市值（亿元） | 472 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1255 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1255 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 35.59-60.87 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 280.4 | 市场表现 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 (%) 今世缘 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《今世缘（603369）：业绩符合 预期，市场战略持续推进》2024- 08-18 2、《今世缘（603369）：上市十年 焕新天，后百亿锐意进取》2024- 07-08 3、《今世缘（603369）：一季度延 续增势 ...

2024 年 09 月 22 日 研 究 报 告 公 研 究 南厂区 2 万吨投产，新品 2049 即将上市 —今世缘（603369.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-09-20 | | 当前股价（元） | 37.62 | | 总市值（亿元） | 472 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1255 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1255 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 35.59-60.87 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 280.4 | 市场表现 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 (%) 今世缘 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《今世缘（603369）：业绩符合 预期，市场战略持续推进》2024- 08-18 2、《今世缘（603369）：上市十年 焕新天，后百亿锐意进取》2024- 07-08 3、《今世缘（603369）：一季度延 续增势 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 78.26 CNY [4][5]. Core Views - The company's core products are experiencing high turnover and increasing market share, with capacity expansion reinforcing the competitive advantage of its flagship product, Guoyuan. The de-stocking cycle highlights the company's competitive edge, and the logic of market share will continue to strengthen [4][14]. - The company has recently invested in 20,000 tons of new raw liquor capacity, bringing total raw liquor capacity close to 60,000 tons. This expansion is expected to significantly support product pricing and market share growth for the Guoyuan series [4][14]. - The demand for mid-range and lower-tier products remains relatively inelastic, with the Guoyuan series showing strong growth in core markets. The company is focusing on deepening channels in markets outside its home province [4][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast - The report maintains earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 at 3.04 CNY, 3.67 CNY, and 4.26 CNY respectively [4][11]. - Revenue projections are set at 12,362 million CNY for 2024, 14,685 million CNY for 2025, and 17,023 million CNY for 2026, reflecting growth rates of 22.4%, 18.8%, and 15.9% respectively [11][14]. Market Position - The company is expected to benefit from a de-stocking cycle, with market share becoming a more significant indicator of brand influence than pricing. The focus will shift towards maintaining market share over product structure and profit margins [4][14]. - The Guoyuan series is currently in a product dividend period, aligning well with consumer trends, and its capacity advantages are anticipated to be gradually released [4][14]. Operational Insights - The company is observing a clear operational differentiation trend among enterprises, with the demand for mid-range products remaining robust. The Guoyuan series continues to lead in growth rates in both the northern and southern markets [4][14].

食品饮料 分析师：刘冉 登记编码：S0730516010001 liuran@ccnew.com 021-50586281 产品结构坚实，省内外市场保持增长 ——今世缘(603369)2024 年中报点评 发布日期：2024 年 09 月 06 日 投资要点： 证券研究报告-中报点评 增持(首次) | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|----------------------| | 市场数据 (2024-09-04) \n收盘价 ( 元 ) | 38.91 | | 一年内最高 / 最低 ( 元 ) | 64.48/37.40 | | 沪深 300 指数 | 3,252.16 | | 市净率 ( 倍 ) | 3.37 | | 流通市值 ( 亿元 ) | 488.13 | | 基础数据 (2024-06-30) | | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 11.56 | | 每股经营现金流 ( 元 ) | 0.99 | | 毛利率 (%) | 73.79 | | 净资产收益率 _ 摊薄 (%) | 16.97 | | 资产负债率 (%) | ...

投资逻辑 引言：周期演绎中，市场对白酒成长性与韧性交替定价。区域酒 的经营韧性在景气震荡时占优，公司能在江苏激烈的竞争中突破 百亿桎梏也印证其进攻性。我们认为公司品牌已起势并赋予经营 惯性，EPS 具备"底线性"，性价比区间推荐布局。 产品布局：四开省内畅销，向产品架构、场景外延要增量。公司 先做减法、聚焦团购打造国缘四开大单品，以其为主的特 A+类产 品 15~23 销量 CAGR 达 29%，目前在 500 元中度赛道规模领先；再 向上&向下辐射，V 系占位加强曝光，对开、雅系等向下夺取价位 红利，特 A 类产品 23 年起加速增长。 追溯国缘四开的培育路径，国缘品牌 04 年创立时便定位高端，场 景主打政商务、企事业团购，从意见领袖入手培育粘性。公司聚 焦团购，经销商数量相对较少、单商体量相对较高、经销商粘性 强。23 年省内单商体量达 1865 万元，明显高于同类区域酒企。在 此基础上，近两年公司顺势而为加快向流通渠道切入的步伐，从 南京、淮安等成熟市场逐步向外，拓宽场景边界谋增量。 区域突破：省内分区精耕+分品提升，省外周边化、板块化外拓。 1）省内细分价位仍有阶段性红利，例如 100~300 元。 ...