下半年业绩或仍下滑，区域枷锁难破 【中国白酒网】今世缘(603369)开始争夺低度白酒市场。 近日南京秋糖期间，今世缘推出了低度酒新品"今世缘•多少"，酒精度为22度。据悉，这是今年知 名白酒企业争相推出的低度白酒当中，目前为止度数最低的，低于26度的古井贡低度酒新品。 今世缘酒业副董事长、副总经理、总工程师吴建峰称，新品拥有将低度从"淡而无味"的缺点扭转 为"新时代饮酒哲学"的优点，同时透露今世缘还将开发轻养生酒品，甄选人参、龙眼肉等中药材，融合 草本活性成分，满足健康需求。 酒精度40度以下的白酒，被定义为低度酒。从1974年问世的38度张弓酒算起，中国低度白酒问世已 有五十多年，头部名酒全部都有低度酒研发历史。 记者发现，在最新披露的《投资者来访接待记录表》中，今世缘也对低度酒设计方面进行了一些回 应。 今世缘表示，低度酒消费主要是适应大口喝酒的场景，但未来大口喝酒的场景会比较少。以前有很 多场景是被动饮酒，低度酒喝起来比较舒服，喝多了对身体的伤害也比较小。但以后自由随性小酌的时 候，消费者还是会更多看重口感的舒适度，只有口感"低而不淡"的产品才会受欢迎。此外，太低的酒度 若仍然小口品尝，对于情绪的调动 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the liquor industry [1] Core Insights - The report analyzes the adjustment phases of the liquor industry, comparing the current phase with the 2013-2016 period, highlighting that the current adjustment is primarily driven by a decline in business demand, which is less severe than the previous round [3] - It emphasizes that the purchasing power of consumers for high-end liquor has significantly improved compared to the lowest price point in 2014, indicating a potential for market recovery [3] - The report identifies three major changes in the liquor market: increased concentration among top companies, the rise of sauce-flavored liquor, and improved market value management practices among liquor companies [3] Summary by Sections 1. Historical Adjustment Phases - The liquor industry has entered a fifth year of adjustment since 2021, with significant impacts from the 2025 policy aimed at reducing government consumption [8] - The report reviews the historical context of the 2013-2016 adjustment, noting that the current environment is different but shares some similarities [8] 2. Current Adjustment Stage - The report indicates that the liquor industry has been in a downward adjustment since the third quarter of 2024, with expectations for recovery around the second quarter of 2026 [42] - It highlights that the current adjustment is less severe than the previous one, with a maximum revenue decline of 5% and profit decline of 8% compared to the previous maximums of 15% and 30% respectively [50] 3. Market Changes Impacting Investment - The concentration of the top six liquor companies has increased significantly, with their revenue share rising from 18.3% in 2013 to 48.1% in 2024, enhancing industry self-regulation [51] - The report notes that the expansion of sauce-flavored liquor production capacity has not yet translated into revenue share, but it is expected to gain traction in the future [3] - It discusses the evolving market value management strategies among liquor companies, including increased dividend payouts and share buybacks, which are expected to enhance investor returns [3]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Insights - The overall sales of liquor during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are expected to decline by 20%-30%, aligning with pre-festival expectations due to the impact of the "ban on alcohol" in May [2] - High-end liquor brands are showing resilience, while the mass market is under pressure, with a notable shift towards lower-priced products in certain regions [3] - The market is characterized by "overall pressure with regional differentiation," where high-end and regional leading brands perform better compared to mass-market products [3] - The price of high-end liquor is stabilizing after a decline, with notable brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showing recovery in prices [4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Sales during the double festival period are under pressure, with a slight recovery in terminal sales observed in September, but overall sales remain constrained [2] - Inventory levels among distributors are high due to sluggish sales, leading to cautious payment collection [2] Regional Analysis - Jiangsu: Stable sales in urban areas, but rural markets are struggling [3] - Henan: Lower-priced products are becoming the main sales drivers due to changing consumer perceptions [3] - Sichuan: Differentiated performance in urban and rural markets, with rural areas showing resilience [3] - Shandong: Sales are influenced by promotional activities, but overall market sentiment is weak [3] Pricing Trends - High-end liquor prices are stabilizing after a decline, with Moutai's price around 1760 yuan [4] - Strong brand power is crucial for performance, with brands like Jiu Gui and Jian Nan Chun showing better resilience [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with the upcoming Q3 earnings disclosures, risks may be fully released, and the sector could see a recovery in sentiment [5] - Key investment lines include: 1. High elasticity stocks under policy expectations: Jiu Gui, She De, Shui Jing Fang, Lao Jiao, Hua Zhi [5] 2. Stocks benefiting from consumer recovery: Gu Jing Gong Jiu, Ying Jia, Jin Si Yuan [5] 3. Strong alpha stocks: Moutai, Fen Jiu [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company is entering the low-alcohol liquor market with the launch of a new product, "Jinshiyuan·Duoshao," which has an alcohol content of 22 degrees, the lowest among recent low-alcohol offerings from major liquor brands [1] Group 1: Product Development and Market Strategy - The new product aims to transform the perception of low-alcohol beverages from being "bland" to embodying a "new drinking philosophy" [1] - The company plans to develop health-oriented liquor products using traditional Chinese medicinal ingredients like ginseng and longan [1] - Low-alcohol liquor is defined as having an alcohol content below 40 degrees, with a history in China dating back over 50 years [1] - The company acknowledges that low-alcohol consumption is adapting to changing drinking scenarios, particularly among younger consumers who prefer a more comfortable drinking experience [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 6.95 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a decrease of 4.84% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.229 billion yuan, down 9.46% [3] - The second quarter saw a significant decline, with revenue dropping by 29.69% to 1.852 billion yuan and net profit falling by approximately 37% [3] - The company indicated that the second quarter's performance reflects actual market conditions, with expectations of similar trends in the third and fourth quarters, albeit with a slight narrowing of the decline [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The company's primary market, Jiangsu province, experienced a revenue decline of 6.07% to 6.254 billion yuan in the first half of the year [3][4] - The largest region, Nanjing, saw a year-on-year decline of 7.94%, while other regions also reported varying degrees of revenue drops [4] - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in surrounding core markets such as Anhui, Shandong, Shanghai, and Zhejiang, despite facing pressures in these areas [5] Group 4: Future Outlook and Goals - The company's operational goal for 2025 is to achieve a revenue growth of 5% to 12% year-on-year, with net profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth [5] - The company is currently prioritizing market share over absolute revenue targets, acknowledging the need for flexibility in response to market fluctuations [5] - As of the latest market data, the company's stock price decreased by 0.24%, with a total market capitalization of 48.987 billion yuan [5]

Group 1: Industry Trends - The current discussions at the Nanjing Autumn Sugar Conference and Wuhan Wine Expo revolve around whether the Chinese liquor industry has hit rock bottom, with low-alcohol beverages remaining a hot topic [1] - The white liquor consumption demographic in China is rapidly shrinking, and the demand for white liquor is believed to have reached its lowest point, with recovery expected to take several quarters [13] Group 2: Company Developments - Moutai has launched a new product called "Date Wine," allowing consumers to choose the production date when purchasing a full box of the 53% vol 500ml Moutai liquor [2] - Wuliangye Group reported positive performance across its various sectors in the first three quarters, aiming to achieve its annual targets [3] - Moutai's sales of its sauce-flavored liquor saw a significant recovery in September, with the channel inventory returning to a healthy level [4] - Guyue Longshan and China Resources Beer have announced a strategic partnership to develop a "yellow wine + beer" crossover product, expected to launch in November [5][6] - Langjiu will continue its sponsorship of the CCTV Spring Festival Gala, enhancing its brand visibility [7] - Huangtai Liquor's major shareholder has completed a share buyback plan, acquiring shares worth 600 million RMB [8] - Hengshui Laobaigan introduced a new low-alcohol product line, responding to the trend of lower alcohol content in the market [9] - Yanghe launched several new products during the Nanjing Autumn Sugar Conference, including themed packaging related to football [10] - Jinsiyuan introduced a new low-alcohol product with an alcohol content of 22 degrees, the lowest among recent low-alcohol offerings [12] - The new CEO of Zhenjiu Lidu, Tang Xiangyang, has outlined three strategies for the company's development in the new cycle [14] - Guyue Longshan's vice president has resigned, and Hu Feng has been appointed as the new vice president [15] Group 3: Market Challenges - Treasury Wine Estates has withdrawn its profit growth target for the current fiscal year due to weaker-than-expected sales in the Chinese market [16] - The company is implementing measures to address the declining prices of its BIN series products and is reallocating some products to other markets [17]

Industry Overview - The current discussions in the white liquor industry revolve around whether it has hit rock bottom, with low-alcohol beverages remaining a hot topic [1] - The market is experiencing a significant shift towards low-alcohol products, as evidenced by various companies launching new low-alcohol offerings [11][13] Company Developments - Moutai has introduced a new product called "Date Wine," allowing consumers to select the production date when purchasing a full box, catering to collectors and gift-givers [1] - Wuliangye Group reported positive performance across its various sectors in the first three quarters, aiming to meet its annual targets [3] - Moutai's sales of its sauce-flavored series have shown a significant recovery in September, with the channel inventory returning to a healthy level [4] - Guyue Longshan and China Resources Beer have announced a strategic partnership to develop a new "yellow wine + beer" product, expected to launch in November [5][6] - Langjiu continues its sponsorship of major cultural programs, including the CCTV Spring Festival Gala [7] - Huangtai Liquor's major shareholder has completed a share buyback plan, increasing its stake to 25.02% [9] New Product Launches - Hengshui Laobaigan has introduced a new low-alcohol product line called "Zhe Lian," targeting the trend towards lower alcohol content in the market [11] - Yanghe has launched several new products, including "Yanghe National Guest" and "Dream Blue Super Football," with football-themed packaging [12] - Jiuziyuan has unveiled a low-alcohol product with an alcohol content of 22 degrees, the lowest among recent low-alcohol offerings [13] Market Challenges - The chairman of Shengchu Group indicated that the white liquor consumption demographic is rapidly shrinking, and demand may take several quarters to recover [14] - Treasury Wine Estates has withdrawn its profit growth forecast for the Chinese market due to weaker-than-expected sales performance [18]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a correction last week, but certain stocks within the brand index showed resilience, indicating potential investment opportunities in sectors like electronics, new energy, new consumption, and real estate as uncertainties ease [1][4]. Market Performance - The market indices saw declines: Shanghai Composite Index down 1.47%, Shenzhen Component down 4.99%, ChiNext down 5.71%, and CSI 300 down 2.22%. The brand index fell 3.58% to 1956.62 points [2]. - Notable gainers in the brand index included Shanghai Jahwa up 9.42%, Changbai Mountain up 7.19%, and Darentang up 5.34%. Other stocks like Luzhou Laojiao and Yiling Pharmaceutical also saw gains exceeding 4% [2]. Stock Performance Since H2 - Since the beginning of the second half of the year, Zhongji Xuchuang has surged 156.40%, leading the gains, followed by Sunshine Power at 114.27%. Other significant performers include Lanke Technology and Yiwei Lithium Energy, both up over 60% [3]. Market Outlook - Looking ahead, the market is expected to maintain upward momentum as uncertainties gradually diminish. Liquidity is anticipated to remain supportive, with domestic interest rates low and overseas liquidity remaining loose, encouraging investment in Chinese equity assets [4][5]. - The current market environment is characterized by a shift in investment styles, with a focus on sectors that offer higher investment certainty, particularly in electronics, new energy, new consumption, and real estate [5].

Core Insights - The forum titled "Breaking the New Cycle: Strategic Transformation of Chinese Baijiu from Scale Expansion to Value Innovation" was held in Nanjing, highlighting the industry's shift towards value creation amidst changing market dynamics [1] Industry Analysis - The Chinese baijiu industry is experiencing significant changes, with national production dropping from 13.58 million kiloliters to 4.15 million kiloliters, indicating the disappearance of scale dividends and the onset of stock competition [2] - The industry faces challenges such as overcapacity, a shift in consumer demographics, and competition from diverse alcoholic beverages [2] Company Strategy - Company is focusing on "smart brewing" and "co-creation of consumer value" as strategies to navigate the current market challenges [2] - The company is enhancing its manufacturing capabilities through smart technology across four dimensions: sourcing quality raw materials, intelligent brewing processes, long-term storage using ceramic jars, and precision management through digital systems [2] Consumer Engagement - The company aims to create value for different consumer segments by establishing three-dimensional value anchors: quality-price ratio supported by smart brewing, cost-performance ratio highlighted by mid-range pricing, and emotional connection through cultural recognition [3] - The company is transitioning from "we brew" to "we co-create" with consumers, emphasizing a collaborative ecosystem that benefits both the company and its customers [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a nearly 30% year-on-year decline in revenue for Q2, aligning with market conditions, and anticipates similar performance trends for Q3 and Q4, albeit with a slight narrowing of the decline [1][2] Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the company achieved revenue of 6.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%, and a net profit of 2.23 billion yuan, down 9.5% [2] - Q2 revenue fell by 29.7% year-on-year, with net profit declining by 37.1% [2] Market Strategy - The company is shifting its focus from revenue growth to maintaining market share, indicating a strategic pivot in response to market conditions [1][3] - The 2025 revenue target is set for a growth of 5%-12%, with net profit growth expected to be slightly lower than revenue growth, aiming for a balance between profit growth and operational quality [1] Industry Context - The white liquor market is entering a new normal, with many companies transitioning from growth to stability, facing both external competition and internal structural upgrades [1][3] - The overall revenue of 17 major white liquor companies declined by 0.4% in the first half of the year, with a more significant drop of nearly 5% in Q2 [4] Regional Focus - The company primarily operates in Jiangsu, where it holds a market share exceeding 17%, ranking second in the province's 60 billion yuan market [3][4] - The company is adopting a regional strategy for expansion, focusing on nearby provinces with strong consumer power and similar cultural backgrounds [5] Product Strategy - The company is exploring product line extensions to capture a broader consumer base, particularly in the 100-300 yuan price range, which is expected to be a key segment in the market [6][7] - The company plans to enhance its product offerings by developing lower-priced products to offset declines in high-end product sales [7][8]

Core Points - The company announced adjustments to its 2020 stock option incentive plan, including changes to the exercise price, the list of incentive recipients, and the number of stock options [1] Summary by Categories Stock Option Plan Adjustments - The exercise price has been adjusted from 54.51 yuan per share to 53.31 yuan per share [1] - The number of incentive recipients has been reduced from 334 to 327 [1] - The total number of stock options has been decreased from 4,608,000 to 4,537,704 [1]