Core Viewpoint - The company, Jinshiyuan, has faced significant challenges in the current downturn of the liquor industry, with both revenue and net profit declining in the first half of the year, reflecting the pressures on regional liquor enterprises during this low period [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Jinshiyuan reported revenue of 6.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.84%, and a net profit of 2.23 billion yuan, down 9.46%, marking the first significant slowdown in semi-annual performance since 2020 [2][3]. - The second quarter saw a dramatic decline, with revenue dropping nearly 30% to 1.85 billion yuan and net profit decreasing approximately 37% to 585 million yuan [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The company has been heavily reliant on high-end products, which have seen a significant drop in demand due to new regulations limiting high-end liquor consumption in business settings [4][5]. - The contract liabilities, seen as a "water reservoir" for the company, fell sharply from 1.592 billion yuan at the end of 2024 to 599 million yuan, a decrease of 62.35%, indicating a weakened market outlook [8][9]. Product Structure and Strategy - The high-margin A+ category products (priced above 300 yuan) accounted for 62% of total revenue but experienced a 7.37% decline, significantly impacting overall performance [4][5]. - The company plans to focus on both consolidating its position in the domestic market and expanding its presence in external markets, emphasizing the importance of mid-range products to counterbalance the decline in high-end sales [6][7]. Regional Market Challenges - The domestic market, which contributes over 90% of revenue, saw a decline of 6.07%, while the external market grew by 4.78%, but its contribution remains insufficient to support overall growth [5][6]. - The competitive landscape in Jiangsu province, a major liquor market, is intensifying, with local brands like Yanghe increasing their market share through aggressive pricing strategies [5][6]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a potential recovery in the industry by the second half of 2026, with expectations of improved performance in the fourth quarter of 2025, although the ability to maintain year-on-year growth remains uncertain [2][3].

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 6.951 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.229 billion yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.224 billion yuan, a decline of 9.1% [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.852 billion yuan, a significant drop of 29.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 585 million yuan, down 37.1% [1] Revenue Breakdown - In Q2 2025, revenue from different product categories showed declines: Special A+ class products generated 1.142 billion yuan (-32.1%), Special A class 583 million yuan (-28.1%), A class 48 million yuan (-39.8%), B class 20 million yuan (-12.8%), and C, D classes 8 million yuan (-42.0%) [1] - The revenue share of high-end products (Special A+ and Special A) increased by 0.22 percentage points to 95.7% in Q2 2025 [1] Market Performance - Revenue from the domestic market in Q2 2025 was 1.611 billion yuan, down 32.2%, while revenue from the external market was 191 million yuan, a decrease of 17.8% [2] - The company has 646 domestic and 653 external distributors, with a net increase of 10 and 22 distributors respectively from Q1 [2] - The company is focusing on strengthening its presence in weaker markets like Yancheng and Suzhou while maintaining solid operations in stronger markets like Huai'an and Nanjing [2] Brand and Marketing Strategy - The company maintained a gross margin of 73.41% for H1 2025, a slight decrease of 0.38 percentage points, while Q2 2025 gross margin was 72.81%, down 0.21 percentage points [3] - The comprehensive expense ratio increased by 9.07 percentage points to 24.0% in Q2 2025, driven by a 9.4% rise in sales expenses due to increased marketing efforts [3] - The company signed a strategic partnership with the "Su Chao" event to enhance product visibility and launched a new "city small wine" series to create a better consumer experience [3] Production and Development - The company is enhancing its production capacity and quality, with a total capacity of 80,000 tons expected after the new workshop for clear and elegant sauce aroma is operational [4] - The company is implementing intelligent production techniques to improve efficiency and product stability, while also upgrading its distributor management system to enhance market responsiveness [4] Financial Forecast - The company expects revenues of 10.446 billion yuan and 11.490 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a projected net profit of 3.073 billion yuan and 3.358 billion yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][20]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a significant decline in revenue, with a 30% year-on-year decrease in Q2 2025, leading to a total revenue of 6.95 billion yuan for H1 2025, down 4.8% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is focusing on channel management and inventory reduction to stabilize pricing amid declining demand, with a notable increase in sales expenses by 26.3% in H1 2025 [3][4]. - The company anticipates a challenging market environment in the second half of the year, with uncertain recovery in consumer demand and sales pressure on product structure [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company's total revenue was 1.85 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.7% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 585 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue contribution from premium products (Special A and above) was 95.7%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company reported a gross profit margin decline of 0.2 percentage points in Q2 2025, indicating stable performance despite the demand pressure [3]. Regional Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company's revenue in Jiangsu province was 1.611 billion yuan, down 32.2% year-on-year, with the Suzhong region showing a smaller decline of 19.5% [2]. - The company added 10 new distributors in the province and 22 outside the province in Q2 2025, indicating ongoing efforts to strengthen its distribution network [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 10.615 billion yuan, 11.090 billion yuan, and 12.007 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -8.1%, +4.5%, and +8.3% respectively [4][10]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 3.011 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 11.7% [10]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 18.5 for 2025 and 17.7 for 2026, maintaining the "Outperform the Market" rating [4][11].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is entering a phase of stock game and shrinking competition, leading to a general performance decline among companies, including a slight revenue drop for Jinshiyuan [2] Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the company achieved revenue of 6.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.84%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.23 billion yuan, down 9.46% [3] - In the second quarter, revenue was 1.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 29.69%; net profit was 585 million yuan, down 37.06%, marking the first decline since 2014 [7] Market Dynamics - The company relies heavily on the domestic market, with nearly 90% of revenue coming from Jiangsu province, which generated 6.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.07%; revenue from outside the province was 628 million yuan, up 4.84% [4] - The product structure shows that the only growth category was the Te A class products (factory price 100-300 yuan), with revenue of 2.23 billion yuan, up 0.74%; other price categories saw varying degrees of decline [4] Sales Channels - Direct sales (including group purchases) generated 142 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 49.47%; however, wholesale and agency channels saw a revenue decline of 5.91%, still remaining the main sales channel [5] - E-commerce channels showed considerable growth due to strong online demand and continuous brand strength [5] Strategic Adjustments - The company plans to maintain its strategic direction but will make appropriate adjustments in market strategies in response to current policy environments [8] - To alleviate market pressure, the company may launch lower-alcohol products and adjust pricing strategies to enhance product competitiveness [9][13] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a potential improvement in the industry by the second half of 2026, with a possibility of a quarter-on-quarter revenue decline improvement in Q4 2025, although year-on-year performance remains uncertain [12]

本报记者 梁傲男 8月26日，江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司（以下简称"今世缘"）发布2025年上半年业绩报告。报告期 内，公司营收69.5亿元，同比微降4.84%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为22.29亿元，同比下降 9.46%；公司经营活动产生的现金流量净额为10.75亿元。 另外，今世缘的经销商数量为1299家，第二季度末环比来看，省内和省外分别增加10家和22家，达到 646家和653家。 在白酒行业呈现存量、缩量竞争格局下，今世缘交出的2025年半年报成绩单，符合市场预期，相比多家 酒企两位数下滑的财报，品牌力和产品力为公司稳健发展提供了有力的支撑。 今世缘在半年报中表示，上半年，白酒行业呈现出缩量竞争态势，面对竞争持续加剧、市场分化日益显 著的外部环境，公司保持战略定力，积极应对行业挑战，通过优化内部管理、深化市场布局、强化创新 驱动，推动业务整体稳健发展，各项经营工作有序推进。 "整体来看，虽然今世缘营收与净利润都出现下滑，但是相对而言，降幅可控，在行业调整周期下，其 表现值得肯定。"中国酒文化品牌研究院智库专家蔡学飞对记者表示。 省外市场布局持续深化 白酒行业处于存量博弈和缩量竞争阶段，"品牌 ...

东吴证券研报指出，今世缘25H1归母净利润22.29亿元，同比-9.46%；其中25Q2归母净利润5.85亿元， 同比-37.06%。5月下旬以来受外在政策冲击，核心产品扫码率降幅较大，高端价位受影响更显著，省外 影响比江苏省内稍好一些，6、7月终端动销增速环比有所下滑。省内核心市场基础稳固，省外受政策影 响比省内稍好，持续聚焦安徽、山东、上海、浙江等周边核心市场。短期来看，今世缘市场份额逆势提 升，一是竞争势能仍然向上，二是灵活把握当前动销表现好的100-300元价格带。中长期来看，今世缘 坚持品牌向上总方向，实施"多品牌、单聚焦、全国化"发展战略，其中省内"高精尖"，持续做强基本 盘；省外"三聚焦"，为全国化打基础。基于两点判断，一是报表逐步出清、后续有望轻装上阵，二是竞 争势能向上、江苏省内份额逆势提升，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Jinshiyuan Liquor Co., Ltd. reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, achieving a revenue of 6.95 billion yuan and a net profit of approximately 2.23 billion yuan, indicating a robust market strategy and operational efficiency [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Strategy - The company adopted a dual strategy of "offensive and defensive" market positioning, enhancing channel penetration in Jiangsu province through "township cultivation" and achieving positive growth in e-commerce channels with a focus on younger consumers [1] - Outside Jiangsu, the implementation of the "six focuses" strategy significantly improved the market share of the Guoyuan brand, while the establishment of a "four-level market" system supports sustainable growth for external business [1] - Brand building efforts included diverse activities to strengthen the high-end image of the Guoyuan series, with emotional marketing strategies targeting core scenes like "wedding banquets" and "family ties" [1] Group 2: Operational Management - The company emphasized a "lean" operational management approach, clarifying progress and responsibility for key annual projects, and implementing regular inspections and control over processes [2] - Quality management was enhanced through supplier management and the establishment of benchmark teams, reinforcing the philosophy that "quality is the lifeline" throughout the production process [2] - The company advanced its digital transformation, completing smart upgrades in production workshops, with digital tools becoming essential for operational efficiency [2] Group 3: Production and Sustainability - Jinshiyuan maintained stable growth in raw liquor production, with an increase in the quality of liquor, and is set to fully launch a 20,000-ton clear elegant sauce workshop, raising total raw liquor capacity to 80,000 tons [3] - The company is pioneering the use of industry-leading full-process intelligent brewing technology to enhance production efficiency while ensuring quality stability [3] - In terms of sustainability, the company has initiated a photovoltaic power generation project and is accelerating the construction of a zero-carbon factory [3]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Jinshiyuan achieved resilient business development in a challenging white liquor industry environment, reporting revenue of 6.95 billion and net profit of approximately 2.23 billion in the first half of 2025 [1] Market Strategy - The company adopted a dual-line growth strategy focusing on deepening market penetration in Jiangsu province while expanding into other provinces, utilizing a "six focus" strategy to enhance the market share of the Guoyuan brand [2] - E-commerce channels showed positive growth through youth-oriented operations and scenario-based marketing, while the company established a "four-level market" system to support sustainable growth outside Jiangsu [2] - Brand building efforts included diverse activities to strengthen the high-end image of the Guoyuan series and emotional marketing strategies for the Jinshiyuan brand [2] Operational Improvement - The company emphasized project management, optimizing human efficiency, and enhancing value, transitioning towards a "lean" operational model [3] - Key projects were monitored with clear progress indicators and responsibility lists, ensuring quality management through supplier oversight and benchmark teams [3] - The company received top ESG ratings, including AAA from Zhongzheng ESG and AA from Wind ESG, maintaining a strong position in international ratings [3] Capacity Layout - Jinshiyuan balanced current demand with future planning, focusing on a "quantity and quality" growth path while maintaining stable growth in raw liquor production [4] - The company is set to launch a 20,000-ton clear elegant sauce workshop, increasing raw liquor capacity to 80,000 tons, and is implementing industry-leading smart brewing technologies [4] - The company has established a 200,000-ton ceramic jar storage capacity and is advancing its zero-carbon factory initiatives with operational solar power projects [4]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3884.87 points, above the six-month moving average, with a slight increase of 0.03% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares today is 21,403.55 billion yuan [1] Stocks Breaking Six-Month Moving Average - A total of 47 A-shares have surpassed the six-month moving average today [1] - Notable stocks with significant deviation rates include: - Haosheng Electronics (12.03%) - Senqilin (4.06%) - Shuguang Co., Ltd. (3.72%) [1] Stock Performance Data - The following stocks have notable performance metrics: - Haosheng Electronics: Today's increase of 14.32%, turnover rate of 7.33%, six-month average price of 21.38 yuan, latest price at 23.95 yuan [1] - Senqilin: Today's increase of 5.90%, turnover rate of 6.52%, six-month average price of 20.00 yuan, latest price at 20.81 yuan [1] - Shuguang Co., Ltd.: Today's increase of 5.15%, turnover rate of 10.89%, six-month average price of 3.74 yuan, latest price at 3.88 yuan [1]

公 司 报 告 食品饮料 2025年08月26日 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:44.3元 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】今世缘（603369.SH）*年报点评*目标 制定理性，业绩稳健增长*推荐20250430 【平安证券】今世缘（603369.SH）*季报点评*主动 控制节奏，成长势能仍在*推荐20241031 证券分析师 事项： 今世缘发布2025年中报，1H25实现营收70亿元，同比-4.8%，归母净利22.3 亿元，同比-9.5%；2Q25实现营收19亿元，同比-29.7%，归母净利5.8亿元， 同比-37.1%。 今世缘(603369.SH) 理性出清，轻装前行 平安观点： 公 司 半 年 报 点 评 券 张晋溢 投资咨询资格编号 究 报 告 S1060521030001 ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 王星云 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523100001 BVG933 wangxingyun937@pingan.com.cn | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...