2024年，今世缘实现营业收入115.44亿元、同比增长14.32%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润34.12亿元，同比增长8.80%；实现扣除非经常性损益后的归 属于上市公司股东的净利润33.80亿元，同比增长7.80%，营收、净利润均创历史新高。 | | | | 单位: 元 | 币种: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 本期比上年 | | | 主要会计数据 | 2024年 | 2023年 | 同期增减 | 2 | | | | | (%) | | | 营业收入 | 11, 544, 389, 358. 58 | 10, 097, 984, 227. 52 | 14. 32 | 7,884 | | 归属于上市公司股东的 | 3, 411, 925, 268, 61 | 3, 136, 042, 999, 78 | 8.80 | 2, 502 | | 净利润 | | | | | | 归属于上市公司股东的 | | | | | | 扣除非经常性损益的净 利润 | 3, 380, 091, 543. 47 | 3, 135, 563, 707. 33 | 7.80 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 14.31% year-on-year for 2024, with total revenue reaching 11.546 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.412 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.8% increase [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 1.604 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.56% year-on-year, and net profit was 326 million yuan, down 34.84% [1] - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 5.099 billion yuan, an increase of 9.17% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.644 billion yuan, up 7.27% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.2 yuan per share, totaling 1.496 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of approximately 43.85% [1] Group 2: Product and Regional Performance - In 2024, revenue from different product categories was as follows: Special A+ products 7.49 billion yuan (+15.2%), Special A products 3.35 billion yuan (+16.6%), A products 420 million yuan (+2.0%), and B products 140 million yuan (-11.1%) [2] - The overall white liquor sales volume increased by 19.5% year-on-year, while the average price decreased by 4.3%, indicating a shift in product structure [2] - Revenue by region in 2024 showed growth in key markets: Huai'an 2.24 billion yuan (+12.3%), Nanjing 2.63 billion yuan (+11.7%), and significant growth in Suzhong (+21.2%) [2] Group 3: Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 74.7%, down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, while for Q1 2025, it was 73.6%, down 0.6 percentage points [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 29.6%, decreasing by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, and for Q1 2025, it was 32.2%, down 0.6 percentage points [3] - As of Q1 2025, contract liabilities were 540 million yuan, showing a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decline, likely due to proactive channel management [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company aims for a revenue growth of 5%-12% in 2025, with net profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth [4] - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 12% and 14% to 3.66 billion yuan and 4.00 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 4.38 billion yuan [4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected at 16, 15, and 13 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a positive outlook for market share growth [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a favorable outlook for investment over the next 6-12 months [5][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 11.546 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.31%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.412 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.2 yuan per share, totaling 1.496 billion yuan, with a corresponding payout ratio of approximately 43.85% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a total revenue of 5.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.17%, and a net profit of 1.644 billion yuan, up 7.27% year-on-year [1]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from different product categories was as follows: Special A+ products at 7.49 billion yuan (+15.2%), Special A products at 3.35 billion yuan (+16.6%), A products at 420 million yuan (+2.0%), and B products at 140 million yuan (-11.1%) [2]. - The company experienced a 19.5% increase in white liquor sales volume, while the average price decreased by 4.3% [2]. - Revenue from various regions in 2024 showed growth, with notable increases in provinces such as Jiangsu and Anhui [2]. Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from Special A+ products was 3.17 billion yuan (+6.6%), while Special A products saw a 17.4% increase to 1.65 billion yuan [3]. - The company’s market share in its home province continues to rise, with provincial revenue reaching 4.64 billion yuan (+8.5%) and non-provincial revenue at 440 million yuan (+19.0%) [3]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 74.7%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased discounts and a shift in product mix [4]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 29.6%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company’s operating expenses as a percentage of revenue showed a decline, with sales expense ratio at 18.5% and management expense ratio at 4.4% for 2024 [4]. Financial Forecasts - The company targets a revenue growth of 5%-12% for 2025, with net profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth [5]. - The revised net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 3.66 billion yuan and 4.00 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 12% and 14% from previous estimates [5]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 2.93 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16 times [5][6].

5月7日，今世缘举办2024年度业绩说明会。会上针对全年业绩增长目标、省内外布局、组织架构调整、各品类重心投 入等问题进行互动。 作为最早一批喊出"在厂家预收货款难以取得比商家更好的利用效率与效益的情况下，不再要求经销商在正常订单以 外预交货款"的白酒企业，今世缘再次正面回应了合同负债缩减的原因。表示公司销售主要是先款后货，披露的合同 负债金额为已收款待发货金额，公司后方保供能力增强，缩短了从打款到发货的周期；而经销商自身也提高了安全储 备，在淡季订货更显从容。 早前有今世缘经销商透露，自己今年原本想签约35%的增长任务量，但考虑行业风险后砍下20%资源。"做增量的话， 要结合经销商的体量和流速，以及团购市场的开拓情况。"该经销商表示，自己的签约任务里，四开占比60%，V系列 占比20%。 "V系列今年完全可以抢竞品的机会，V3的目标可能瞄准了50亿元。"该经销商介绍，苏酒阵营中有品牌在江苏省内市 场开始下滑。"比如在南京地区，有品牌从峰值四十多亿下滑到十几亿，且产品利润微薄。" 本次说明会上，也有分析师提问表示，白酒行业的普遍规律是，渠道利润与产品增速呈线性正相关。而行业近两年不 少大单品都面临价格承压的挑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with revenue growth rates declining from double digits to single digits, and cash flow growth lagging behind revenue growth [1][2]. Fundamental Analysis - The white liquor industry achieved a total revenue of 427.218 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.38%, and a net profit of 166.805 billion yuan, up 7.41% [2]. - In Q1 2025, the industry reported revenues of 148.535 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.43%, and a net profit of 63.097 billion yuan, growing by 2.71% [2]. - Combining Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, the industry generated revenues of 247.491 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.11%, and a net profit of 98.491 billion yuan, up 0.86% [2]. - Revenue growth rates are highest for high-end liquor, followed by mid-range and then sub-high-end liquor, while net profit growth rates follow the same order [2]. Cash Flow and Prepayments - By the end of 2024, the industry had prepayments of 60.328 billion yuan, an increase of 18.601 billion yuan from Q3 2024 [3]. - In Q1 2025, prepayments decreased to 49.177 billion yuan, down 11.151 billion yuan from Q4 2024 [3]. - The operating cash flow net amount for the industry in 2024 was 148.331 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.72%, while cash received from sales was 465.847 billion yuan, growing by 6.25% [3]. - In Q1 2025, the operating cash flow net amount was 48.645 billion yuan, up 62.29%, with cash received from sales at 150.192 billion yuan, a 16.65% increase [3]. Valuation Analysis and Dividends - As of April 30, 2025, the absolute PE ratio for the white liquor sector was 19.7x, below the historical average of 30.6x since 2011 [4]. - The relative PE ratio compared to the Shanghai Composite Index was 1.39x, also below the historical average of 2.04x [4]. - Most companies in the sector increased their annual dividend rates in 2024, with dividend yields rising above 3% [4]. - The current valuation reflects market expectations of continued demand pressure, suggesting limited downside for leading brands if demand stabilizes [4]. Recommended Stocks - Key recommendations include Kweichow Moutai (600519), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809), Wuliangye (000858), Jinshiyuan (603369), and Yingjia Gongjiu (603198) [5].

21世纪经济报道记者卢陶然、实习生蔡泽华 北京报道 今世缘(603369.SH)：发布2024年ESG报告 4月30日，今世缘发布2024年ESG报告。报告显示，今世缘2024年温室气体排放量为30,423.21吨二氧化 碳当量，范围1为392.42吨二氧化碳当量，范围2为419640吨二氧化碳当量。 今世缘制定了 2025 年减排计划：一、积极优化能源结构，加大太阳能等可再生能源利用，降低碳排 放；二、升级绿色生产工艺，安装水循环系统，提高水资源循环利用率，降低单位产品水耗，同时改造 设备降低能耗，完善固废处理；三、全力推进零碳白酒产业园建设，采用节能材料，增加园区绿化，打 造行业绿色标杆。 水井坊(600779.SH)：发布2024年ESG报告 4月30日，水井坊发布2024年ESG报告。报告显示，水井坊2024年温室气体排放量为194.405.83吨二氧化 碳当量，范围1为31.547.41吨二氧化碳当量，范围2为11739.72吨二氧化碳当量，范围三151.118.70吨二 氧化碳当量。其中范围三为今年首次披露。 水井坊制定了2024年减碳目标：第一、自2024年到2030年，将范围一和范围二的温室气 ...

一位白酒行业人士向长江商报记者表示，对于"百亿酒企"而言，要想持续发展，需要走出省内，面向全 国开拓销售渠道，"今世缘收入增长，还要看其在江苏省外的拓展情况"。 2025年一季度，今世缘省外营业收入达4.37亿元，同比增长19.04%，同样也超过了整体增幅。 近日，今世缘在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，拓展省外市场是难而正确的事。目前已将山东、安 徽、河南、浙江等省份确立为重点开拓区域，虽然省外市场规模仍相对较小，但已能实现有效运作和增 长，板块市场拓展符合预期。 中高端酒收入涨幅较快 今世缘的前身是江苏高沟酒厂，位于江苏省淮安市涟水县高沟镇，1996年创立今世缘品牌，如今已是中 国白酒上市公司"十强"企业。 近期，中国酒业协会理事长宋书玉指出，当前白酒行业正处于去库存周期，存量时代的特征非常明显。 今世缘（603369）(603369.SH)业绩创新高，并加速向江苏省外进军。 4月30日，今世缘发布年度报告，公司2024年实现营业收入115.44亿元，同比增长14.32%；净利润34.12 亿元，同比增长8.80%；扣非净利润33.80亿元，同比增长7.80%。公司三项主要经营数据均创历史新 高。 其中，2 ...

2025 年 05 月 06 日 公司点评 增持/下调 今世缘(603369) 目标价: 53.64 昨收盘:47.40 今世缘：2024 年稳健收官，2025 年顺利实现开门红 ◼ 走势比较 (40%) (28%) (16%) (4%) 8% 20% 24/5/6 24/7/16 24/9/25 24/12/5 25/2/14 25/4/26 ◼ 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 12.47/12.47 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 590.98/590.98 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 59.38/35.35 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<今世缘：三季度业绩符合预期，产 品结构势能延续>>--2024-11-01 <<今世缘：业绩符合预期，后百亿时 代稳中有进>>--2024-08-19 <<今世缘：一季度开门红顺利收官， 开启后百亿征程>>--2024-05-05 多产品稳健增长，省内持续深耕省外快速渗透。分产品，2024 年公 司特 A+/特 A/A/B/C&D 分别实现营收 74.91/33.47/4.19/1.42/0.74 亿 元，同比 ...

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 06 日 [Table_Title] 25 年经营战略延续，收入目标 5-12% [Table_Title2] 今世缘(603369) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 603369 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 59.6/35.35 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 583.38 | | 最新收盘价： | 46.79 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 583.38 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 1,246.80 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 1 2025 年 4 月 29 日，公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报。2024 年，公司实现营业收入 115.44 亿元，同 比+14.32%，实现归母净利润 34.12 亿元，同比+8.80%，收入业绩符合市场预期。2025Q1，公司实现营业收入 50.99 亿元，同比+9.17%，实现归母净利润 16.44 亿元， ...

2025 年 05 月 06 日 公司点评 增持/下调 今世缘(603369) 目标价: 53.64 昨收盘:47.40 今世缘：2024 年稳健收官，2025 年顺利实现开门红 ◼ 走势比较 (40%) (28%) (16%) (4%) 8% 20% 24/5/6 24/7/16 24/9/25 24/12/5 25/2/14 25/4/26 ◼ 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 12.47/12.47 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 590.98/590.98 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 59.38/35.35 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<今世缘：三季度业绩符合预期，产 品结构势能延续>>--2024-11-01 <<今世缘：业绩符合预期，后百亿时 代稳中有进>>--2024-08-19 <<今世缘：一季度开门红顺利收官， 开启后百亿征程>>--2024-05-05 证券分析师：郭梦婕 电话： E-MAIL：guomj@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523080002 证券分析师：林叙希 电话： E-MAIL：linxx@tpyz ...