Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for Q2 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 30% and 37% respectively, indicating a need for channel adjustments and a reflection of sales performance [1][3] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.95 billion and 2.23 billion respectively, representing a year-on-year decline of 4.8% and 9.5% [1] - In Q2 2025, the company recorded revenue and net profit of 1.85 billion and 580 million respectively, with year-on-year decreases of 29.7% and 37.1% [1] - Cash collection for Q2 was 2.02 billion, down 19.0% year-on-year, leading to a negative operating cash flow of -352 million [1] Product Performance - The performance of different product categories showed mixed results, with Special A+ and Special A categories being relatively stable, while the Opening category faced slight pressure [2] - For H1 2025, revenue by product category was as follows: Special A+ 4.31 billion, Special A 2.23 billion, A 230 million, B 80 million, and CD 30 million, with year-on-year changes of -7%, +1%, -10%, -6%, and -39% respectively [2] - In Q2 2025, the year-on-year performance for product categories was: Special A+ -32%, Special A -28%, A -40%, B -13%, and CD -42% [2] Regional Performance - In Q2 2025, revenue from domestic and foreign markets was 1.61 billion and 190 million respectively, with year-on-year declines of 32% and 18% [2] - Specific regions such as Huai'an, Nanjing, and Suzhou experienced significant year-on-year declines, with Suzhou showing a slight improvement in market share [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 72.8%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 31.6%, down 3.7 percentage points [3] - The increase in sales and management expense ratios contributed to the decline in profitability, with sales expense ratio at 19.0% and management expense ratio at 5.6% [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a narrowing of the decline in performance and sales in the second half of the year, particularly during the peak seasons [1][3] - The company has slightly adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 2.37, 2.54, and 2.73 yuan, maintaining a strong recommendation for investment [3]

值得注意的是，今世缘同时是苏超的官方战略合作伙伴。今年5月苏超正式开赛并迅速走红，今世缘品 牌也在全国范围内获得了巨大的曝光量。但从业绩表现来看，作为江苏区域酒企，其在江苏省内实现收 入62.5亿元，同比下降6.1%；主要淮安、南京和苏中大区分别下滑4.3%、7.9%和0.2%。 今年夏天江苏省城市足球联赛（以下简称"苏超"）的爆火，让区域体育IP成为新热点，作为苏超赞助商 的江苏酒企今世缘（603369.SH）也迎来了一波"泼天的流量"，但其第二季度业绩却出现两位数下滑。 在业内看来，在市场竞争加剧的背景下，名酒对区域酒企的挤压正日趋严重，后者面临更大的挑战。 财报显示，2025年上半年，今世缘实现营业收入69.5亿元，较上年同期下降约4.8%；归母净利润22.3亿 元，同比降幅约9.5%。尤其是第二季度业绩明显下滑，单季营收18.5亿元，同比下降29.7%；归母净利 润5.9亿元，同比减少37.1%。而上年同期，今世缘第二季度收入和净利润还分别实现了21.5%和16.9%的 同比增长。 从产品结构来看，上半年今世缘售价300元以上价格带产品实现收入43.1亿元，同比下降7.4%；100元到 300元价格带 ...

值得注意的是，今世缘同时是苏超的官方战略合作伙伴。今年5月苏超正式开赛并迅速走红，今世缘品 牌也在全国范围内获得了巨大的曝光量。但从业绩表现来看，作为江苏区域酒企，其在江苏省内实现收 入62.5亿元，同比下降6.1%；主要淮安、南京和苏中大区分别下滑4.3%、7.9%和0.2%。 对于这一变化，今世缘证券部工作人员回应称，第二季度业绩变化主要受行业整体低迷影响。苏超提升 了品牌曝光度，但并不直接带动销量，如果没有苏超带来的流量，情况可能会更差。 今年7月在回复投资者调研时，今世缘管理层就曾提到，五月下旬以来消费环境出现较大变化。高端产 品扫码率下降明显，价格带越高的产品受到的影响越显著。六月和七月终端动销增速环比四月、五月出 现下滑，主要是受到政策因素和季节性影响。2024年也存在类似情况，但2025年下滑幅度更大。 在业内看来，在市场竞争加剧的背景下，名酒对区域酒企的挤压正日趋严重，后者面临更大的挑战。 财报显示，2025年上半年，今世缘实现营业收入69.5亿元，较上年同期下降约4.8%；归母净利润22.3亿 元，同比降幅约9.5%。尤其是第二季度业绩明显下滑，单季营收18.5亿元，同比下降29.7%；归母 ...

25H1 特A+/特A/其他类收入同比-7.4%/+0.7%/-12.6%，25Q2 特A+/特A/其他类同 比-32.1%/-28.1%/-34.4%，25H1 特A 及以上收入占总营收比重同比+0.4pct 至95.1%。25Q2 外部环境压 力增大，但预计大众价位代表产品淡雅系列仍实现稳健增长；核心大单品开系列受外部环境影响预计略 有下滑，其中四开表现好于对开；国缘V 系定位高线次高端价格带同样有所承压。分区域，公司通过分 区精耕、分品提升不断打破省内"天花板"，省外围绕重点板块市场布局，25H1 省内/省外营收同 比-6.1%/+4.8%，25Q2 省内/省外营收同比-32.2%/-17.8%。公司收入跨越百亿规模后，"省内精耕"+"区 域扩张"的节奏更加坚定清晰。 盈利能力略有承压，合同负债环比提升 公司发布2025 年半年报，25H1 总营收/归母净利/扣非净利69.5/22.3/22.2亿，同比-4.8%/-9.5%/-9.1%； 25Q2 总营收/归母净利/扣非净利18.5/5.8/5.8亿，同比-29.7%/-37.1%/-36.5%。产品端，公司核心产品升 级、新产品布局陆续落地，外部环境 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3888.00 points, above the six-month moving average, with a slight increase of 0.11% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 16993.57 billion yuan [1] Stocks Breaking the Six-Month Moving Average - A total of 46 A-shares have surpassed the six-month moving average today, with notable stocks including Shuguang Co., Zhengdan Co., and Dongbai Group, showing divergence rates of 4.78%, 4.68%, and 2.88% respectively [1] - Stocks with smaller divergence rates that have just crossed the six-month moving average include Jinjiang Hotels, Mingchen Health, and Spring Airlines [1] Top Stocks by Divergence Rate - The top three stocks with the highest divergence rates are: - Shuguang Co. (600303) with a price increase of 6.23%, turnover rate of 9.78%, six-month line at 3.74 yuan, latest price at 3.92 yuan, and a divergence rate of 4.78% [1] - Zhengdan Co. (300641) with a price increase of 6.11%, turnover rate of 6.57%, six-month line at 24.40 yuan, latest price at 25.54 yuan, and a divergence rate of 4.68% [1] - Dongbai Group (600693) with a price increase of 3.53%, turnover rate of 5.38%, six-month line at 6.27 yuan, latest price at 6.45 yuan, and a divergence rate of 2.88% [1] Additional Stocks with Notable Performance - Other stocks with significant performance include: - Tianbang Food (002124) with a price increase of 3.30%, turnover rate of 4.80%, six-month line at 3.05 yuan, latest price at 3.13 yuan, and a divergence rate of 2.74% [1] - *ST Haiyuan (002529) with a price increase of 5.06%, turnover rate of 1.38%, six-month line at 6.68 yuan, latest price at 6.85 yuan, and a divergence rate of 2.53% [1] - Senqilin (002984) with a price increase of 4.22%, turnover rate of 4.06%, six-month line at 20.00 yuan, latest price at 20.48 yuan, and a divergence rate of 2.43% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 75 yuan [2][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.95 billion yuan for H1 2025, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.23 billion yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue was 1.85 billion yuan, down 29.7%, and net profit was 580 million yuan, down 37.1% [2][7]. - The report indicates that the company is actively managing its inventory and has begun a phase of destocking, which is expected to relieve pressure in the coming year. The company is focusing on deepening market penetration in provincial areas and expanding its presence in key markets outside the province [7][8]. - The report highlights that the company has increased its marketing and promotional expenses, which has impacted profitability. The gross margin for Q2 was 72.8%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [7][8]. Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 10.11 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.4%. The net profit forecast for 2025 is 2.89 billion yuan, down 15.5% year-on-year [3][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 2.31 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19 times [3][7]. - The company’s total assets are estimated to reach 25.71 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 10.6% [3][7].

2025年8月26日，今世缘（603369.SH）发布2025年中报。 公司营业总收入为69.51亿元，在已披露的同业公司中排名第3，较去年同报告期营业总收入减少3.53亿元，同比较去年同期下降4.84%。归母净利润为22.29 亿元，在已披露的同业公司中排名第3，较去年同报告期归母净利润减少2.33亿元，同比较去年同期下降9.46%。经营活动现金净流入为10.75亿元，在已披 露的同业公司中排名第2，较去年同报告期经营活动现金净流入减少1.71亿元，同比较去年同期下降13.75%。 公司最新资产负债率为33.41%，在已披露的同业公司中排名第8，较上季度资产负债率增加1.46个百分点，较去年同期资产负债率增加2.69个百分点。 公司最新毛利率为73.41%，在已披露的同业公司中排名第4，较上季度毛利率减少0.22个百分点，较去年同期毛利率减少0.38个百分点。最新ROE为 13.77%，在已披露的同业公司中排名第2，较去年同期ROE减少3.20个百分点。 公司摊薄每股收益为1.79元，在已披露的同业公司中排名第3，较去年同报告期摊薄每股收益减少0.19元，同比较去年同期下降9.46%。 公司最新总资产周转率 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 今世缘（603369） 2025 年中报点评：主动降速纾压，筑牢发展 基础 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 10,100 | 11,546 | 10,594 | 11,250 | 12,166 | | 同比（%） | 28.05 | 14.31 | (8.24) | 6.19 | 8.14 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3,136 | 3,412 | 2,983 | 3,214 | 3,569 | | 同比（%） | 25.30 | 8.80 | (12.56) | 7.72 | 11.07 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.52 | 2.74 | 2.39 | 2.58 | 2.86 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 17.61 | 16.19 | 18.51 | 17.19 | 15.47 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summ ...

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 6.95 billion and a net profit of 2.23 billion, representing year-on-year decreases of 4.84% and 9.46% respectively [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a significant drop in revenue to 1.85 billion, down 29.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.585 billion, down 37.1% year-on-year, indicating performance below market expectations [1] - Due to ongoing external demand pressures, the company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 3.05 billion, 3.23 billion, and 3.54 billion, which are 10.6%, 5.9%, and 9.4% lower than previous estimates [1] Revenue Breakdown - In Q2 2025, the company's liquor revenue was 1.802 billion, a decrease of 30.9% year-on-year, with the A+ product category generating 1.14 billion, down 32.1% [2] - The provincial revenue was 1.611 billion, down 32.2% year-on-year, while the out-of-province revenue was 0.191 billion, down 17.8% [2] - Specific regional performances showed significant declines, with the Huai'an area down 30%, Nanjing down 33.7%, and Suzhou down 38.7% [2] Profitability and Cash Flow - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 31.6%, a decrease of 3.69 percentage points, primarily due to increased expenses and declining revenue [3] - The gross margin was 72.8%, down 0.21 percentage points, while the sales expense ratio increased to 19%, up 6.8 percentage points [3] - The net cash flow from operating activities was -0.352 billion, compared to 0.245 billion in the same period last year [3] Market Expansion and Performance Catalysts - The company is experiencing better-than-expected progress in expanding its out-of-province market, which may serve as a catalyst for stock performance [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported lower-than-expected performance for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 6.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.23 billion yuan, down 9.46% year-on-year [6] - The report indicates a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to continued pressure from external demand, with expected net profits of 3.05 billion yuan, 3.23 billion yuan, and 3.54 billion yuan for the respective years, reflecting year-on-year changes of -10.6%, 5.9%, and 9.4% [6] - Despite the challenges, the company maintains strong brand potential, particularly with its Guo Yuan series, and its valuation remains reasonable compared to peers, justifying the "Buy" rating [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024: 11.546 billion yuan, 2025H1: 6.951 billion yuan, 2025E: 10.716 billion yuan, 2026E: 11.276 billion yuan, 2027E: 12.214 billion yuan [5] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 3.052 billion yuan, with a projected earnings per share of 2.45 yuan [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable, with projections of 74.9% for 2025 and 75.2% for 2027 [5] Revenue Breakdown - In Q2 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 1.85 billion yuan, a significant decline of 29.7% year-on-year, with net profit dropping by 37.1% to 585 million yuan [6] - The revenue from white liquor in Q2 2025 was 1.802 billion yuan, down 30.9% year-on-year, with the A+ product category experiencing a 32.1% decline [6] - The company’s performance varied by region, with domestic revenue declining by 32.2% and accounting for 89.4% of total revenue, while external revenue decreased by 17.8% [6] Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 31.6%, down 3.69 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased expenses and declining revenue [6] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was reported at 72.8%, a slight decrease of 0.21 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The sales expense ratio increased to 19%, up 6.8 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting higher costs amid declining demand [6]