锂业弹性表2025年5月 行业评级：看好 2025年5月21日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 分析师 | 王南清 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | wangnanqing@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | 证书编号 | S1230523100001 | 01 锂业弹性表 预计2025年自有矿权益产量最多的为：天齐锂业，赣锋锂业，中矿资源，华友钴业。 预计2026年自有矿权益产量最多的为：赣锋锂业，天齐锂业，中矿资源，华友钴业。 2024至2026年产量增速较快的为：雅化集团，川能动力，西藏矿业，赣锋锂业，紫金矿业。 增量分析： 2 证券研究报告 添加标题 1）赣锋锂业：未来几年主要增量为Goulamina项目、Cauchari-Olaroz 盐湖、Mariana盐湖项目放量。 2）天齐锂业：未来几年主要增量为格林布什矿山三期扩建，以及SQM产能的扩张。 3）中矿资源：未来几年主要增量为Bikita项目增产。 4）永兴材料：未来几年增量为化山瓷石矿项目扩产建成增产。 ...

金融界5月20日消息，上证指数上涨0.38%，中证新能源汽车产业指数 (新能源车，930997)上涨0.82%， 报2040.3点，成交额317.79亿元。 数据统计显示，中证新能源汽车产业指数近一个月上涨8.05%，近三个月下跌5.56%，年至今上涨 4.07%。 据了解，中证新能源汽车产业指数选取50只业务涉及新能源整车、电机电控、锂电设备、电芯电池、电 池材料等新能源汽车产业的上市公司证券作为指数样本，反映新能源汽车产业龙头上市公司证券的整体 表现。该指数以2014年12月31日为基日，以1000.0点为基点。 从中证新能源汽车产业指数持仓样本的行业来看，工业占比55.56%、可选消费占比25.54%、原材料占 比17.74%、信息技术占比1.16%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样 本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。 ...

Summary of Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Cobalt and Lithium Battery Materials Key Financial Metrics - **2024 Revenue**: 60.946 billion CNY, a decrease of 8% year-on-year due to falling prices of nickel, cobalt, and aluminum [3] - **Net Profit**: 4.155 billion CNY, an increase of 24% year-on-year [3] - **Operating Cash Flow**: 12.43 billion CNY, a significant increase of 257% [3] Product Shipment Performance - **Nickel Products**: Shipment increased by 46% year-on-year, exceeding 180,000 tons in 2024 [4] - **Cobalt Products**: Shipment reached approximately 47,000 tons, a 13% increase year-on-year [5] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Shipment surged by 378%, reaching 39,000 tons [5] - **Q1 2025 Performance**: - Nickel products: 97% increase year-on-year - Lithium carbonate: 10% increase year-on-year [5] Resource Development and Projects - **Indonesia Nickel Mines**: Company holds interests in 6 nickel mines with total resources of 5.5 million tons of metal [2] - **Smelting Projects**: Four smelting projects in Indonesia with a total capacity of 200,000 tons [2] - **Pumala Project**: Joint venture with Vale and Ford, expected to start production by the end of 2026 [2] - **Zimbabwe Arcadia Lithium Mine**: Resource increased to 2.5 million tons with a grade of 1.34 [2] - **Copper Production in Congo**: Stable output of approximately 90,000 tons annually [2] Strategic Adjustments - **Investment Focus**: Shifted to overseas capacity development, pausing new domestic capacity construction [2][6] - **Product Structure Adjustment**: Focus on mainstream customers and high-quality development [11] Market Trends and Price Outlook - **Cobalt Price**: Expected to rise due to Congo's export restrictions [12][15] - **Nickel Price**: Currently at a low point with limited downside potential [12][16] - **Lithium Price**: Historical low but potential for rebound [12][16] Future Growth Potential - **Indonesian Business Growth**: Expected to double in the next three years with significant projects underway [19] - **Carbonate Production Target**: Planned production of 40,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2025 [23] - **Resource Expansion Plans**: Actively seeking low-cost, high-quality resource opportunities [25] Innovations and Technology Development - **Solid-State and Semi-Solid Batteries**: Ongoing collaboration with leading companies in the field, with initial product supply already commenced [28] Conclusion - **Overall Business Outlook**: Strong fundamentals with a focus on resource development in Indonesia and Africa, alongside domestic advancements in battery materials [30]

强预期回归弱现实，商品波动加剧 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 ——钴锂金属周报 | 偶 | | --- | | 32 | | . | | 1 F | | | [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [table_Authors] 于嘉懿(分析师) | 宁紫微(分析师) | 梁琳(研究助理) | 相关报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | | 登记编号 S0880522080001 | S0880523080002 | S0880125042230 | 2025.04.05 | 有色金属《对等关税落地，宏观情绪再施压》 有色金属《海外衰退预期升温，博弈或转向内 需》2025.04.06 有色金属《关税在即，预期转换临近》2025.03.30 本报告导读： 周初中美贸易政策释放积极信号，但钴锂市场需求气氛均偏冷清，价格上弹后均有 所回落。锂快速下跌近均衡成本后有望逐步弱稳，钴在原料偏紧下或仍坚挺偏强。 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium and cobalt industry [2][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a return to weak realities from strong expectations, with cobalt and lithium prices rebounding before retreating [14]. - The easing of US-China trade relations is expected to buffer the decline in lithium prices, although the overall market remains cautious [15]. - Cobalt market dynamics are characterized by a tightening supply and a general wait-and-see attitude among industry players [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The lithium sector is experiencing a slight price decline, with the Wuxi 2507 contract down 1.57% to 62,600 CNY/ton and the Guangxi 2507 contract down 1.94% to 61,800 CNY/ton [14]. - Lithium concentrate prices are reported at 712 USD/ton, a decrease of 13 USD/ton [14]. - Recommended stocks for overweight include Zhongmin Resources, Yahua Group, Cangge Mining, Ganfeng Lithium, Keda Manufacturing, and Tibet Mining [14]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - The cobalt market is entering a buffer period with a cautious sentiment prevailing among operators [16]. - Cobalt raw material supply is tightening, and prices for cobalt intermediates remain strong [16]. - The report notes that the European market for cobalt is stabilizing, while domestic demand remains steady [16]. 3. Key Data: New Energy Material Production, Imports, and Metal Prices - Lithium carbonate production decreased by 9.37% week-on-week, while inventory increased by 0.27% [46][47]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 2.15% to a range of 66,100-64,600 CNY/ton [15][57]. - Cobalt prices showed a slight increase, with electrolytic cobalt averaging 24,200 CNY/ton, up 0.05% [16][67]. 4. Listed Company Profit Forecasts - Ganfeng Lithium is rated "Overweight" with a PE of 86.06 for 2025E [94]. - Tianqi Lithium and Shengxin Lithium Energy are rated "Cautious Overweight" with PE ratios of 58.30 and 60.84 respectively [94]. - Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum are also rated "Overweight" with PE ratios of 11.79 and 11.81 respectively [94].

有色金属周报 20250518 中美关税摩擦缓和，工业金属价格上行 2025 年 05 月 18 日 ➢ 本周（05/12-05/16）上证综指上涨 0.76%，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.12%，SW 有 色指数上涨 0.55%，贵金属 COMEX 黄金变动-3.72%，COMEX 白银变动+0.37%。工 业金属 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动+2.75%、+0.01%、+1.15%、 +1.03%、-1.55%、+2.67%，工业金属库存 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变动- 2.01%、-6.47%、-3.60%、-1.81%、-1.24%、+1.11%。 ➢ 工业金属：中美经贸谈判取得实质性进展，双方关税 90 天内大幅下调，同时释放 未来继续谈判的积极信号，贸易摩擦及美国衰退担忧有所缓解；国内降准降息及公积金 利率下调，政策支持力度持续，工业金属价格反弹上行。铜方面，供应端，本周 SMM 进口铜精矿指数（周）报-43.05 美元/干吨，周度环比小幅上涨 0.06 美元/干吨。铜精 矿年中长单谈判即将开始，Bisha 铜矿招标结果为-80 美元，装期为下半年，Anglo Americ ...

有色ETF基金（159880），联接基金（A类 021296，C类 021297，I类 022886） 关联个股： 紫金矿业（601899）、北方稀土（600111）、中国铝业（601600）、洛阳钼业（603993）、山东黄金 （600547）、华友钴业（603799）、赤峰黄金（600988）、赣锋锂业（002460）、山金国际 （000975）、云铝股份（000807） 截至05月16日09:35，有色ETF基金(159880.SZ)上涨0.47%，其关联指数国证有色(399395.SZ)上涨 0.32%；主要成分股中，紫金矿业上涨0.57%，金力永磁上涨2.67%，山东黄金上涨0.69%，山金国际上 涨0.87%，中金黄金上涨0.83%。 消息面上，中信证券研报指出，2024年及2025年一季度金属行业盈利稳增，黄金、稀土、铜等板块领 涨，行业估值处于低位且分红回报提升，建议关注黄金、稀土、铜、铝等配置机遇；该观点或对有色 ETF成分股中黄金及稀土类标的形成短期情绪提振，紫金矿业、山东黄金等个股同步走强。 券商研究方面，招商证券指出近期中美关税谈判超预期推动有色板块回归基本面，其中钨价因配额减量 持续 ...

【深圳商报讯】（首席记者刘琼）5月15日，第十七届深圳国际电池技术交流会/展览会（CIBF2025）在 深圳国际会展中心开幕。本届展会覆盖15个展馆，展览面积近30万平方米，汇聚了宁德时代、比亚迪、 欣旺达等3200余家参展商，3天展期预计吸引专业观众超40万人次。 "电池产业的未来竞争，是生态闭环与数智化能力的竞争。中国企业正以技术创新与标准输出，重塑全 球价值链。"中国化学与物理电源行业协会秘书长王泽深表示。 据悉，展会同期还将举办电动航空及飞行器电池技术交流会、电池产业合作论坛、电池护照与可持续发 展技术研讨会、新能源数字化论坛暨AI应用大会、同位素核电池现状及未来发展研讨会等专业会议。 展会活动现场将重磅发布《锂离子电池行业蓝皮书2024》及《低空飞行器电池标准化白皮书》，并签署 多项战略合作备忘录，推动行业标准化与可持续发展进程。 （文章来源：深圳商报） CIBF作为全球电池技术首发高地，被誉为中国新能源产业的"风向标"。本次展会由中国化学与物理电 源行业协会主办，以"链动全球·赋能绿色·驱动未来"为主题，15大展馆涵盖了电池材料、设备、电芯制 造、Pack技术及回收再利用等全产业链，全景呈现产业发 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance of the CSI New Materials Theme Index, which has shown a decline in recent trading sessions despite a slight increase over the past month [1] - The CSI New Materials Theme Index has decreased by 1.58% to 2886.44 points, with a trading volume of 21.047 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the index has increased by 3.35%, but it has decreased by 2.25% over the last three months and by 1.24% year-to-date [1] Group 2 - The CSI New Materials Theme Index includes 50 listed companies involved in advanced steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, inorganic non-metals, and other new materials [1] - The index's top ten holdings are: CATL (10.61%), North Huachuang (9.86%), Wanhua Chemical (7.81%), Longi Green Energy (6.6%), Huayou Cobalt (3.41%), Sanan Optoelectronics (3.14%), Tongwei Co. (3.35%), and others [1] - The market share of the index's holdings is 54.72% from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, 44.74% from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and 0.54% from the Beijing Stock Exchange [1] Group 3 - The industry composition of the index's sample shows that industrials account for 43.54%, materials for 33.04%, and information technology for 23.42% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Public funds tracking new materials include various ETFs and mutual funds, such as Tianhong CSI New Materials C, Huaxia CSI New Materials Theme ETF, and others [2]

金融界5月15日消息，上证指数低开低走，中证新能源汽车指数 (CS新能车，399976)下跌1.5%，报 2984.98点，成交额266.97亿元。 从指数持仓来看，中证新能源汽车指数十大权重分别为：比亚迪（13.83%）、汇川技术（11.28%）、 宁德时代（9.99%）、三花智控（4.83%）、亿纬锂能（4.55%）、华友钴业（3.81%）、赣锋锂业 （2.84%）、格林美（2.58%）、天齐锂业（2.45%）、宏发股份（2.25%）。 从中证新能源汽车指数持仓的市场板块来看，深圳证券交易所占比83.07%、上海证券交易所占比 16.31%、北京证券交易所占比0.62%。 从中证新能源汽车指数持仓样本的行业来看，工业占比56.48%、可选消费占比24.71%、原材料占比 17.65%、信息技术占比1.15%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样 本中剔除。样本公司发生 ...