Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][23]. Core Insights - In the short term, the company is expected to continue profit elasticity due to store expansion and improved profitability in direct channels. In the long term, despite a potential slowdown in revenue growth due to cost control and discount management, the quality of operations and profit elasticity will significantly improve. The company is transitioning from profit elasticity driven by high retail growth to a more sustainable and robust internal capability-driven profit elasticity. The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is 550 million, 640 million, and 730 million, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 12, and 10 times [6][22]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 7.79 billion, net profit attributable to the parent company of 420 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 290 million, with year-on-year changes of -9.4%, +127.1%, and a turnaround of 316 million respectively. In Q4 alone, revenue was 2.57 billion, net profit was 210 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 150 million, with year-on-year changes of +8.0%, +538%, and a turnaround of 184 million [4][6]. Channel Performance - The women's clothing segment continues to show weak performance under ongoing adjustments, while direct sales gross margin has significantly improved. In Q4, revenue from direct sales, franchises, and online channels saw year-on-year declines of -33.5%, +0.1%, and -37.7% respectively, with gross margins changing by +6.5, -3.9, and -4.0 percentage points year-on-year. The direct sales channel experienced a significant improvement in gross margin despite a large revenue decline due to optimized product structure and strong discount management [5][21]. Cost Management and Asset Quality - The report highlights that cost optimization and improved asset quality have driven performance elasticity. By the end of 2023, inventory was 1.51 billion, down 29% year-on-year, primarily due to enhanced management of product supply and demand. The current inventory scale and structure are healthy, with only 3% of inventory being over two years old [22][21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 16.82 CNY and a fair value of 18.66 CNY [2][13]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's operating conditions are improving, and the major shareholder's full participation in the capital increase demonstrates confidence in the company's future [3][13]. - The company is expected to see significant rebounds in revenue and net profit in 2024, driven by organizational reforms and a focus on enhancing brand image and core product lines [8][13]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 7.792 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 9.41%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 422 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 127.06% [5][13]. - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit of 8.01% and 538.15%, respectively [13]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6 CNY for every 10 shares [13]. Store and Channel Strategy - The total number of stores decreased by 940 to 3,731 in 2023, as the company shifted its strategy to focus on store quality and profitability rather than sheer growth [6][13]. - The company aims to enhance the brand image and improve store efficiency, with a significant reduction in underperforming stores [6][13]. Future Projections - Revenue from the franchise business is projected to grow from 2.621 billion CNY in 2024 to 3.184 billion CNY by 2026, with expected growth rates of 11.1%, 10.5%, and 10.0% respectively [10][23]. - The company anticipates a net profit of 5.89 billion CNY in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 39.7% from 2023 to 2024 [23][13]. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 54.13%, an increase of 5.91 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating cash flow increased by 220.01% to 1.276 billion CNY [13][21]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 1.24 CNY, 1.43 CNY, and 1.73 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [23][13].

F源证券 公 司 研 究 2023 年经营质量提升，看好 2024 年零售恢复增长 2023 年公司实现营收 77.92 亿元（同比-9.4%），归母/扣非净利润 4.2 亿元（同比 +128.4%）/2.9 亿元（同比增加 3.16 亿元），主要系零售折扣改善带动毛利率提 升叠加降本控费效果显著所致。由于闭店较深且女装&乐町处于调整阶段，2024 年初至今零售恢复缓慢，我们下调 2024-2025 年并新增 2026 年盈利预测，预计 2024-2026 年归母净利润 5.6/6.6/7.5 亿元（此前 2024-2025 年为 6.6/7.6 亿元），对 应 EPS 分别为 1.2/1.4/1.6 元，当前股价对应 PE 为 14.3/12.1/10.6 倍，考虑到公司 经营质量提升，看好 2024 年零售稳步恢复增长，维持"买入"评级。 品牌端：男装收入稳中有升，其他品牌闭店下收入短期承压 2023 年 女 装 / 男 装 / 乐 町 / 童 装 实 现 营 收 28.8/30.4/7.6/9.6 亿 元 ， 同 比 -12.0%/+4.2%/-24.5%/-12.5%，男装稳中有升，其他品牌闭店下收入 ...

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 公司报告 | 年报点评报告 品牌端，1) 升级终端形象：首家新一代太平鸟旗舰店即将正式亮相，推动 店务形象全面升级；2) 拉通风格系列：男女风格系列及视觉形象拉通，乐 町和童装风格升级；3) 引爆品牌张力：重点铺排 S 级整合营销战役与全新 VI 视觉营销。 调整盈利预测，维持"买入"评级 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 展望 2024 年，公司将坚持"高质量发展"经营方针，持续强化以消费者为 中心的经营理念，深化业务变革。 零售端，公司计划持续优化渠道结构，提升运营效率，实现业务高质量增 长：1) 直营聚焦核心城市：聚焦核心城市，深耕核心区域发展，运营能力 持续提升；2) 拓展规模型加盟商：加速拓展提质增效，优化加盟开闭店标 准和流程；3) 电商夯实江湖地位：多平台协同发展，加大布局垂类店铺。 公司多品牌组合有效覆盖中国年轻时尚消费群体，聚焦打造高顾客口碑， 增强品牌粘性，不断满足年轻消费者对时尚的需求。23 年，公司强化太平 鸟品牌的统一化管理，严格管控新品折扣，规范老品消化渠道，主动优化 调整低效门店，根据公司 23 年业绩，我们调整盈利预测，预计公司 24-26 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年03月23日 2023 年收入下降 9%，严控零售折扣+费用管控推动净利率提升。公司是国内 中高端快时尚服装集团。2023 年收入同比下降 9.4%至 77.9 亿元，归母净利 润增长 128.4%至 4.2 亿元。分渠道看，直营/加盟/电商收入分别下降 4%/1%/23%，女装、乐町和童装品牌均有双位数以上下降，男装小幅增长。 公司收入下降主要由于期内优化渠道效益、大量关闭门店，全年直营/加盟 净关店 255/688 家，净关 18%/21%，实际上平均店效稳步提升。与此同时， 公司为改善渠道盈利水平、提升品牌形象，在库存较健康前提下大幅收窄零 售折率，全年毛利率同比增加 5.9 百分点至 54.1%。费用方面，公司通过组 织和人员调整优化经营费用，2023 年经营费用减少约 10%，费用率小幅下降， 同时政府补助有所减少。2023 年归母净利率提升 3.3 百分点至 5.4%。2023 年公司每股派发现金红利 0.6 元，现金分红比例 66.9%。 2023 第四季度低基数上收入增长 8%。第四季度收入在低基数上同比增长 8%， 女装和男装品牌均双位数增长，净利润在折扣收窄、费 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 20.32 CNY, down from a previous forecast of 25.60 CNY, while the current price is 16.82 CNY [14][25]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's operational quality continues to improve, and organizational changes are gradually showing results. The company experienced a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, up 127% year-on-year in 2023, driven by a reduction in retail discounts and ongoing cost control measures. The earnings elasticity for 2024 is expected to remain strong [14][25]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a retail-oriented multi-brand fashion apparel company that implements a gradient brand development strategy, targeting differentiated market segments. It emphasizes product research and design, integrating current fashion trends into its offerings, and employs a sales model that combines direct sales and franchising [3]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's revenue decreased by 9.4%, but net profit increased by 127%, indicating a turnaround. The report notes that the company has improved its channel management quality and profitability significantly [25][22]. - The financial forecast for 2024 estimates total revenue of 8,608 million CNY, with a projected net profit of 603 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 42.8% [22]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the mass apparel industry, with a stable market position and good earnings elasticity. The report compares it with peers like Semir and Hailan Home, suggesting a higher-than-average PE ratio of 16 for 2024, which supports the target price of 20.32 CNY [25][22]. Operational Metrics - The report indicates that the company has successfully reduced inventory levels, with year-end inventory down 29% year-on-year, and anticipates a return to positive growth in offline store numbers in 2024 [25][22]. Profitability Indicators - The report projects improvements in profitability metrics, with EBIT margin expected to rise to 10.1% in 2024 and net profit margin to 7.0% [22]. Valuation Metrics - The company is valued at a market capitalization of 7,970 million CNY, with a PE ratio of 18.89 for 2023, expected to decrease to 13.23 in 2024 [15][22]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a price range of 14.27 to 27.39 CNY over the past 52 weeks, with a current price of 16.82 CNY [15]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the company's performance will continue to grow rapidly, supported by ongoing improvements in operational efficiency and market conditions [25][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company, Taiping Bird, reported its 2023 performance, which met expectations with a revenue decline of 9.4% to 7.79 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 127.1% to 422 million yuan [2][13] - The company plans to focus on "high-quality development" in 2024, emphasizing brand image upgrades, product core competitiveness, retail operation quality, and a robust supply chain [2] - Despite a weak retail environment, the company is optimistic about future growth due to strategic adjustments and improvements in profitability [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, revenue was 2.57 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 210 million yuan, a 558% increase [2] - The company declared a dividend of 0.6 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 67%, significantly up from 38% in 2022 [2] Brand Performance - Men's clothing showed better performance, while women's clothing revenue fell by 12% to 2.88 billion yuan, despite a gross margin increase of 7.5 percentage points to 56.7% [2] - The company closed 423 stores, resulting in a total of 1,458 stores, a 22% reduction [2] Channel Analysis - Direct sales channel revenue decreased by 4.3% to 3.27 billion yuan, while the average revenue per store increased by 19% to 2.64 million yuan [2] - Online sales fell by 23% to 2.09 billion yuan, with a gross margin increase of 1.9 percentage points to 44.3% [2] Profitability and Inventory Management - The gross margin improved by 5.9 percentage points to 54.1%, and the net profit margin increased by 3.3 percentage points to 5.4% [2][23] - Inventory decreased by 29% to 1.51 billion yuan, with a significant improvement in cash flow, which rose by 220% to 1.28 billion yuan [2] Future Outlook - The company expects net profits of 570 million yuan, 670 million yuan, and 750 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 11 [2][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10][16]. Core Views - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 7.792 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.41%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 422 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127.06% [10][16]. - The improvement in profit margins and a decrease in expense ratios contributed to the profit growth despite the revenue decline, with gross margin reaching 54.13%, the highest since the company went public in 2017 [10][16]. - The company is expected to see gradual recovery in retail performance in 2024, driven by brand upgrades and optimized channel structures [19]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported a significant increase in operating cash flow to 1.276 billion yuan, up 220.01% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced inventory purchases and daily expenses [3][10]. - The accounts receivable at the end of 2023 decreased by 8.22% to 486 million yuan, with a turnover period of 23 days, down by 1 day year-on-year [8][10]. - The company’s inventory at the end of 2023 decreased by 29.00% to 1.509 billion yuan, with inventory turnover days reduced to 183 days, reflecting improved inventory management [17]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is set at 536 million yuan, with an EPS of 1.13 yuan, and a P/E ratio of 15 times [10][20]. - The company anticipates a net profit of 669 million yuan in 2025 and 755 million yuan in 2026, with corresponding EPS of 1.41 yuan and 1.59 yuan [10][20]. Brand and Product Strategy - The company is focusing on brand image upgrades and plans to launch its first new-generation flagship store in 2024, emphasizing core product categories and popular items [19]. - The company aims to optimize its channel structure, focusing on core cities for direct sales and expanding franchise operations [19].

邮箱：gsresearch@gszq.com 地址：南昌市红谷滩新区凤凰中大道 1115 号北京银行大厦 邮编：330038 传真：0791-86281485 短期流水仍有波动，期待渠道规模回归增长 2024 年 03 月 22 日 投资评级说明 国盛证券研究所 地址：北京市东城区永定门西滨河路 8 号院 7 楼中海地产 广场东塔 7 层 邮编：100077 太平鸟（603877.SH） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|--------| | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 8,602 | 7,792 | 8,364 | 9,267 | 10,181 | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | -21.2 | -9.4 | 7.3 | 10.8 | 9.9 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 186 | 422 | 594 | 688 | 774 | | 增长率 ...

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for 2023 was CNY 7,792,124,340.26, a decrease of 9.41% compared to CNY 8,601,638,095.28 in 2022[20] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was CNY 421,942,182.32, representing a significant increase of 127.06% from CNY 185,825,468.44 in 2022[20] - The net cash flow from operating activities reached CNY 1,276,292,512.72, an increase of 220.01% compared to CNY 398,823,008.25 in 2022[20] - The total assets as of the end of 2023 were CNY 8,083,289,181.07, a decrease of 5.53% from CNY 8,556,750,440.27 at the end of 2022[20] - The company's net assets attributable to shareholders increased by 8.98% to CNY 4,520,870,266.81 at the end of 2023, up from CNY 4,148,444,373.72 in 2022[20] - Basic earnings per share for 2023 were CNY 0.90, a 130.77% increase from CNY 0.39 in 2022[22] - The weighted average return on net assets increased by 5.30 percentage points to 9.74% in 2023, compared to 4.44% in 2022[22] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was CNY 288,783,185.42, a significant recovery from a loss of CNY 25,736,096.33 in 2022[20] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from direct sales was 3.27 billion yuan, accounting for 42% of total revenue, while franchise sales contributed 2.36 billion yuan (31%) and online sales contributed 2.09 billion yuan (27%)[54] - The revenue from online sales in 2023 is CNY 2,092,910,033.85, accounting for 27.09% of total revenue, down from 32.03% in 2022[123] - The revenue from offline sales is CNY 5,631,506,970.98, which represents 72.91% of total revenue, with a gross profit margin of 58.33%[124] - The revenue from the East China region was ¥2,435,691,272.33, down 26.30% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 47.75%[90] Inventory and Cost Management - The company's inventory of goods decreased by 610 million yuan year-on-year, with a reduction rate of 27.8%, resulting in a total inventory value of 1.59 billion yuan at the end of the reporting period[47] - The total cost of procurement and commissioned processing for apparel operations was CNY 3,512,757,647.45, accounting for 99.16% of total costs, a decrease of 19.72% compared to the same period last year[92] - The inventory decreased by 29.00% to CNY 1,508,629,408.67, mainly due to reduced purchases of goods during the period[109] - Operating costs decreased by 19.74% to ¥3,574,472,049.17 from ¥4,453,679,356.94, primarily due to a reduction in retail discounts[81] Market and Consumer Trends - The overall market environment is shifting towards a focus on quality and experience, with consumers increasingly valuing product quality and functionality over brand image[59] - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles in China increased by 12.9% year-on-year, indicating a resilient industry growth supported by macroeconomic policies[58] - The company is focusing on enhancing the shopping experience for young consumers through both online and offline channels, including social retail platforms[79] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to continue expanding its brand matrix and product lines to cater to diverse consumer needs[31] - The company aims to become the preferred fashion brand for Chinese youth, focusing on a multi-brand strategy to cater to diverse consumer segments[74] - The company is committed to a data-driven product development model, utilizing big data and AI to better understand consumer needs and market trends[68] - The company has implemented a rapid and flexible production supply model, enhancing efficiency through close collaboration with suppliers and a new SCM management system[70] Governance and Compliance - The company has maintained a governance structure that complies with the requirements of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, ensuring clear responsibilities and coordination among the board, supervisory committee, and management[154] - The company has not reported any significant differences in governance practices compared to regulatory requirements, indicating compliance with relevant laws and regulations[156] - The company has adhered to the information disclosure obligations as per the relevant regulations throughout the reporting period[155] Employee and Management Structure - The total number of employees in the parent company and major subsidiaries is 9,123, with 2,723 in the parent company and 6,400 in subsidiaries[187] - The professional composition includes 7,350 sales personnel, 623 technical staff, 160 financial staff, 322 administrative staff, 206 logistics and warehousing staff, and 462 production staff[188] - The company has established a salary management system to link employee compensation with company performance and individual contributions[192] Future Outlook - The company has set a revenue guidance of 1.8 billion RMB for the next fiscal year, projecting a growth rate of 20%[170] - New product launches are expected to contribute an additional 300 million RMB in revenue, with a focus on sustainable fashion lines[169] - The company plans to implement a "high-quality development" strategy in 2024, focusing on consumer-centric operations and business transformation[144]