丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨菜百股份（605599.SH） [Table_Title] 菜百股份 2024 年报和 2025 年一季报点评：全 直营稳健经营，Q1 业绩表现优异 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司 2024 年营收 202.3 亿元，同比增长 22.2%，归母净利润 7.2 亿元，同比增长 1.7%；2025Q1 收入 82.2 亿元，同比增长 30.2%，归母净利润 3.2 亿元，同比增长 17.3%，扣非归母净利润 2.8 亿元，同比增长 9.9%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490514080004 SAC：S0490520080019 SFC：BUV258 李锦 罗祎 张彦淳 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 菜百股份（605599.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 菜百股份 2024 2] 年报和 2025 年一季报点评：全 直营稳健经营，Q1 业绩表现优异 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司 2024 年营收 202.3 亿元，同 ...

▲今年情人节期间，老铺黄金店面前大排长龙 作为"古法黄金"概念的倡导者，老铺黄金成功将黄金从投资品赛道切换至奢侈品赛道。其核心策略在于将传统文化、工艺和现代设计结合，赋予黄金"文 化消费"与"身份象征"的双重价值。2024年，老铺黄金足金产品收入97.87亿元，占总收入的比例高达99.9%，截至2024年12月31日，拥有原创设计近2000 项，其中境内专利249项，作品著作权1314项，境外专利228项，高工艺产品的溢价能力显著提升，毛利额同比激增162.9%至35.01亿元。 品牌的高端化定位进一步强化了老铺黄金的市场竞争力——其门店全部进驻SKP、万象城等顶级商业中心，单店坪效达3.28亿元，远超行业平均水平。此 外，35万名忠诚会员（同比增长75%）的复购贡献，使得同店收入增长率超过120.9%。这种"文化+工艺+高端场景"的闭环，不仅吸引了高净值客群，更将 黄金从"保值工具"转化为"社交货币"，开辟了新的增长空间。 菜百股份：全渠道深耕投资与文化双赛道 2024年，国际金价持续上涨，消费需求受到抑制，黄金珠宝行业整体面临严峻挑战。根据黄金珠宝上市公司2024年财报，半数以上企业营收与净利润缩 水，头 ...

Group 1 - Beijing Caibai Jewelry Co., Ltd. (菜百股份) has opened its flagship store, the Caibai Jewelry Xiangyun Store, in Beijing, which is the largest direct chain store in the country, covering an area of 1,675 square meters, marking a key strategic transformation for the company [1] - The company reported steady growth in its 2024 annual report and 2025 Q1 report, with total proposed cash dividends amounting to 560 million yuan (including tax), resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 77.89% [1] - The growth in performance is attributed to the continued success of its direct sales model, with over a hundred direct chain stores across Beijing and other cities, as well as a comprehensive online sales network [1] Group 2 - The Xiangyun Store is part of the Beijing Zhongguancun Xiangyun Town, recognized as a key consumption district, and aims to create a new cultural and consumption experience, enhancing the brand's recognition and premium capability through scenario-based marketing [2] - The strategic significance of the Xiangyun Store extends beyond single-store operations, aiming to enhance user engagement through cultural experiences and promote the upgrade of traditional retail to an "experience economy" [2]

Group 1: Cai Bai Co., Ltd. (菜百股份) - Cai Bai Co., Ltd. plans to open approximately 10 new stores in 2024, with over half already opened, including the largest flagship store in Beijing Shunyi Xiangyun Town [1] - The company reported a slight decrease in revenue contribution from its main store despite an increase in overall store scale, with growth in chain stores and online business, as well as strong performance in bank channels [1] - Sales of precious metal investment products have seen significant growth, while gold jewelry sales remain stable, and cultural products related to precious metals have performed well; however, sales of diamond and jade jewelry have declined [1] - The company adheres to a pricing principle of "selling genuine goods at fair prices" and plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7.20 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) for the 2024 fiscal year [1] Group 2: Ri Fa Precision Machinery Co., Ltd. (日发精机) - Ri Fa Precision Machinery has a strong competitive advantage in the bearing equipment sector, ranking high in market share [2] - The company completed the R&D of a CNC thread grinding machine in 2023, designed for processing lead screws and nuts in industries such as new energy vehicles and humanoid robots, with initial deliveries made to select customers [2] - However, large-scale production has not yet been achieved due to some downstream industries still being in early stages, and continuous capacity release for CNC grinding equipment has not been realized [2] - The company is in discussions regarding compensation for five aircraft detained by Airwork, with negotiations ongoing with Russian clients and insurance companies [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Fengjing Capital has conducted research on Cai Bai Co., which includes insights into the company's 2024 store opening plans, channel and product structure changes, pricing strategies, and dividend distribution [1] - Cai Bai Co. plans to open approximately 10 new stores in 2024, with over half already opened, including the largest flagship store in Beijing Shunyi Xiangyun Town [1] - The company reported a slight decrease in revenue contribution from its main store despite growth in total store scale, with significant growth in chain stores and online business, as well as good performance in bank channels [1] Group 2 - The sales of precious metal investment products have seen a significant increase, while gold jewelry sales remain stable, and there is a good rise in precious metal cultural products; however, sales of diamond and jade jewelry have declined [1] - Cai Bai Co. adheres to a pricing principle of "selling genuine goods at real prices" [1] - The annual profit distribution plan for 2024 proposes a cash dividend of 7.20 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong financial performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant revenue growth driven by investment gold and a robust online sales channel [1][3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the full year 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 20.23 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 720 million yuan, up 1.7%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 680 million yuan, reflecting a 4.0% increase [2]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.89 billion yuan, a 16.8% increase, with a net profit of 170 million yuan, up 43.0%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 160 million yuan, a 37.3% increase [3]. - For Q1 2025, the revenue reached 8.22 billion yuan, marking a 30.2% year-on-year growth. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 320 million yuan, up 17.3%, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 280 million yuan, a 10.0% increase [3]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from gold jewelry, precious metal investment products, precious metal cultural products, and diamond jewelry for 2024 was 5.47 billion yuan, 12.91 billion yuan, 1.56 billion yuan, and 140 million yuan, respectively. The year-on-year changes were -11.1%, +45.3%, +40.9%, and -34.3% [4]. - The growth in revenue for Q1 2025 was primarily driven by the continuous rise in gold prices, with investment gold continuing to show high growth, while gold jewelry sales remained stable [4]. - The company maintained a direct sales model and opened 11 new stores in 2024, with online sales increasing by 60.3% to 4.78 billion yuan [4]. Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 8.9%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix. The gross margin for gold jewelry was 18.5%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, benefiting from the direct sales channel and rising gold prices [5]. - The gross margins for precious metal investment products and cultural products were 2.7% and 16.1%, with the latter increasing by 2.0 percentage points due to price hikes in investment gold [5]. - The net profit margins for 2024 and Q1 2025 were 3.6% and 3.9%, respectively, reflecting a slight decline [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the rising consumer confidence in gold prices, with a forecasted net profit of 820 million yuan and 900 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 12x for 2025 [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4][8][20] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 82.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.2%, and a net profit of 3.2 billion yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year. This growth is attributed to the high demand for gold and jewelry in Beijing, where the company has a significant market presence [1][4] - The company benefits from a high proportion of precious metal investment products, which saw a strong demand in Q1 2025 due to rising gold prices [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 202 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 22.2%, and a net profit of 7.2 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7.20 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 77.9% [2] - In 2024, the revenue from precious metal investment products grew by 45.3%, while revenue from gold jewelry decreased by 11.1% [3] - The company opened 20 new direct stores in 2024, with a net increase of 13 stores, and plans to open 3 more in Q2 2025 [3] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 8.9%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin is expected to be 3.6%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [3] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 7.9 billion yuan, 8.9 billion yuan, and 9.8 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 11 [4][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4][8][20] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 82.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.2%, and a net profit of 3.2 billion yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year. This growth is attributed to the high demand for gold and jewelry in Beijing, where the company has a significant presence [1] - The company benefits from a high proportion of revenue from precious metal investment products, which saw a strong demand in Q1 2025 due to rising gold prices [1] - The company plans to expand its brand influence through an omnichannel strategy, combining online and offline sales [4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company expects revenue of 202 billion yuan, a 22.2% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 7.2 billion yuan, a 1.7% increase year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7.20 yuan per 10 shares, with a dividend payout ratio of 77.9% [2] - The revenue from precious metal investment products is expected to grow by 45.3% in 2024, while gold jewelry sales are projected to decline by 11.1% [3] - The company opened 20 new direct stores in 2024, with plans for further expansion in 2025 [3] Financial Projections - The projected net profit for 2025 is 7.9 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 11 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 16.55 billion yuan in 2023 to 31.87 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [6][14] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 8.9%, with a net margin of 3.6% [3][14]

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced significant revenue growth driven by rising gold prices and strong sales in precious metal investments and cultural products, although profit margins faced downward pressure due to changes in product mix [1][2][4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 20.233 billion yuan (up 22.24% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 719 million yuan (up 1.73%) [1] - For Q4 2024, revenue reached 4.887 billion yuan (up 16.84%) with a net profit of 165 million yuan (up 43.00%) [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue was 8.222 billion yuan (up 30.18%) and net profit was 320 million yuan (up 17.32%) [1] Product and Channel Analysis - In 2024, revenue from gold jewelry was 5.473 billion yuan (down 11.14%), while precious metal investment products generated 12.906 billion yuan (up 45.28%) and cultural products brought in 1.563 billion yuan (up 40.87%) [2] - The share of precious metal investment products increased to 64% (up 10 percentage points), while gold jewelry's share decreased to 27% (down 10 percentage points) [2] - Offline revenue was 15.095 billion yuan (up 13.40%), online revenue was 4.818 billion yuan (up 60.26%), and bank revenue was 301 million yuan (up 43.48%) [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 8.94% (down 1.74 percentage points), and the net profit margin was 3.59% (down 0.71 percentage points) [2] - For Q1 2025, the gross profit margin was 8.34% (down 1.66 percentage points), and the net profit margin was 3.95% (down 0.38 percentage points) [3] Store Expansion - By the end of 2024, the company had 100 directly operated stores, with a net increase of 13 stores during the year [3] - In Q1 2025, the company added 4 new stores and closed 2, with plans to open 3 more in Q2 [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 803 million yuan, 870 million yuan, and 930 million yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 12%, 8%, and 7% respectively [4] - The company maintains a "strong buy" rating with a 2025 PE ratio of 13.1X and a 2026 PE ratio of 12.1X [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company benefited from rising gold prices, leading to a significant increase in investment demand and product competitiveness [4] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 8.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 320 million yuan, up 17.32% year-on-year [1] - The company has expanded its product offerings and enhanced its online sales channels, resulting in a 60.26% year-on-year increase in e-commerce subsidiary revenue in 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's overall gross margin was 8.34%, down 1.67 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company reported a revenue of 20.23 billion yuan in 2024, a 22.24% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 719 million yuan, reflecting a 1.73% growth [1][5] Growth Drivers - The company opened 4 new direct stores and plans to open 3 more in Q2 2025, capitalizing on the rising consumer investment demand due to increasing gold prices [3] - The revenue from precious metal investment products grew by 45.28% in 2024, and retail revenue from gold and jewelry increased by 30.53% in Q1 2025 [3] Profitability and Forecasts - The report projects an increase in net profit attributable to shareholders to 860 million yuan in 2025, a 19.65% growth, and further to 929 million yuan in 2026 [5] - The company’s gross margin is expected to decline slightly, with estimates of 8.6% for 2025 and 8.4% for 2026 [13]