022-23861563 重点品种推荐 （2）MiniMax 发布支持全模态模型的 Token Plan，M2.7 模型受欢迎程度超 预期； 行 行业周报 业 "词元经济"方兴未艾，算力产业链充分受益 | | | ——计算机行业周报 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 究 | 分析师： 连天龙 SAC NO： | S1150525070002 2026 年 | 03 月 | 26 日 | 计算机 投资要点： 证券分析师 连天龙 行业要闻 liantl@bhzq.com （1）官方定调，AI 时代"词元经济"崛起； 虹软科技 增持 （3）PC 硬件涨价潮从内存蔓延至 CPU，英特尔、AMD 上调全系列 CPU 价 格。 证 近三月行业指数走势图 券 研 究 相关研究报告 国内云厂商相继提价，算力需 求持续释放——计算机行业 周报 业周报 （1）优博讯：发布 2026 年第一季度业绩预告； （2）万达信息：发布关于签订《日常关联交易框架协议》的公告。 行情回顾 气持续验证——计算机行业3 报 告 3 月 19 日至 3 月 25 日，沪深 300 下跌 2.59%，申万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the computer industry and an "Accumulate" rating for Hongsoft Technology (688088) [2][26]. Core Insights - The demand for computing power continues to be released, driven by AI applications like OpenClaw, leading to significant increases in token usage and price hikes in cloud services [12][25]. - Shanghai plans to allocate 1 billion yuan annually for computing power vouchers to establish the largest computing power scheduling platform in China [12]. - The AI application landscape is rapidly evolving, with domestic models like MiniMax M2.5 and Kimi K2.5 expected to become core choices for high token consumption applications due to their cost advantages [25][26]. Industry News - Shanghai is establishing a major computing power scheduling platform with an annual budget of 1 billion yuan to assist enterprises in accessing computing resources [12]. - AI applications such as OpenClaw are driving a surge in token usage, prompting Alibaba Cloud to raise prices by up to 34% for certain products [12][13]. - NVIDIA launched the Vera Rubin platform, significantly reducing the cost per token to one-tenth of previous levels, enhancing efficiency in AI model training and inference [14]. Company Announcements - Xingyun Technology announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary received a bid notification, indicating a significant project that could impact its future operations [16][17]. - Guoao Technology disclosed plans to sell a 23.16% stake in a subsidiary, with the transaction valued at no less than 400 million yuan [18][19]. Market Review - From March 12 to March 18, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.98%, while the Shenwan Computer Industry index decreased by 2.71%, with all sub-sectors experiencing declines [19][20]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Computer Industry is 202.04 times, with a valuation premium of 1397.57% compared to the CSI 300 [20]. Weekly Strategy - The report highlights the increasing demand for high-performance GPU cloud services and AI-specific computing resources, driven by the growth of AI applications [25]. - The AI industry is expected to enter a new phase of development in 2026, with multiple catalysts accelerating commercialization and investment opportunities in the computing power supply chain [25][26].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company, with a target price of 62.51 CNY [4][10]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing significant growth in profits, driven by successful expansions in its mobile and automotive businesses, alongside advancements in AI smart terminals, including smart glasses and robotics [1][10]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 923 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 258 million CNY, a 45.9% increase year-on-year [10]. - The company is positioned as a core software algorithm supplier in the AI glasses market, which is anticipated to see substantial growth, with global shipments expected to reach 8.7 million units in 2025, a 322% increase year-on-year [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 670 million CNY in 2023 to 1,211 million CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.4% [3][11]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 88 million CNY in 2023 to 376 million CNY in 2027, representing a CAGR of around 20% [3][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.22 CNY in 2023 to 0.94 CNY in 2027 [3][11]. Business Segmentation - The mobile smart terminal segment is projected to generate revenue of 675.26 million CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 16% [12]. - The intelligent driving and other IoT solutions segment is expected to see revenue growth of 71% in 2024, reaching 127.19 million CNY [12]. - Overall, the company's total revenue is expected to grow from 815.17 million CNY in 2024 to 1,211.28 million CNY by 2027, with a consistent gross margin of around 90% [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the computer industry [4] Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the core strategic position of artificial intelligence (AI) in national development, with the term "artificial intelligence" appearing 30 times, compared to only 6 times in the previous plan [6][8] - The next five years will see AI Agents as the driving force for economic transformation, with a focus on high-value AI Agent growth leading to significant value creation [6][10] - The demand for intelligent computing power is expected to rise significantly, with projections indicating that by 2028, intelligent computing power will account for over 95% of total computing power in China [6][12] - The report highlights the emergence of "Token inflation" due to the rapid growth in AI model usage, with a projected annual Token consumption increase from 0.0005 PetaTokens in 2025 to 152,667 PetaTokens by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 3418% [6][24] - Investment opportunities are identified in AI-native application companies, edge AI technologies, domestic computing power chain replacements, and collaborative infrastructure for computing and electricity [6][38] Summary by Sections Section 1: The "14th Five-Year Plan" as a Key Period for Intelligent Economy - The plan introduces the concept of "intelligent native," suggesting AI may become a new production factor [11] - The intelligent economy will drive the reconstruction of AI factor value [13] Section 2: Outlook for the "14th Five-Year Plan" - The intelligent economy is set to initiate a rapid explosion in Token usage, with AI Agents transitioning from cost centers to profit centers [17][38] - The report anticipates a significant increase in the number of active AI Agents, from approximately 28.6 million in 2025 to 2.216 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 139% [24] Section 3: Comprehensive Upgrade of AI Factors During the "14th Five-Year Plan" - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality data sets as a core barrier for building irreplaceable AI Agents [16] - The demand for high-quality, proprietary data sets is expected to surge, with a focus on transforming data resources into valuable assets [16] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI-native application companies capable of generating scalable revenue, as well as companies that integrate AI Agents with vertical industry know-how [6][38] - Specific companies to watch include Horizon Robotics, JingTai Holdings, Meitu, and others [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the computer industry and an "Accumulate" rating for Hongsoft Technology (688088) [2][25]. Core Insights - The OpenClaw project is gaining popularity, with domestic tech companies actively engaging in this space. The recent versions, OpenClaw 3.7 and 3.8, have introduced significant upgrades, enhancing system security and functionality [11]. - The demand for computing power is surging due to the "lobster farming" trend, prompting Tencent Cloud to announce adjustments in AI model pricing, with significant increases in costs for model usage [12]. - The AI computing sector is experiencing high demand, validated by price hikes from major cloud service providers like Amazon AWS and Google Cloud, alongside Tencent Cloud's recent adjustments [25]. - The AI application landscape is rapidly evolving, with domestic manufacturers launching products related to OpenClaw, accelerating the penetration of intelligent applications [25]. Industry News - OpenClaw's recent updates include new features that enhance security and usability, making it a focal point for developers [11]. - Tencent Cloud's pricing changes for AI models reflect the growing demand for AI computing resources, with some model prices increasing by over four times [12]. - The report highlights the increasing interest and investment in AI applications, suggesting that 2026 may mark a pivotal year for the industry [25]. Company Announcements - Newguo announced plans to establish a holding subsidiary focused on AI and consumer electronics, aiming to explore new applications in the market [13][15]. - Shengbang Security received a government subsidy of 2.7216 million yuan, which constitutes 65.18% of its audited net profit for the last fiscal year [16]. - Daheng Technology sold shares in Nanshan Energy to optimize its asset structure, raising approximately 140 million yuan [17]. Market Review - From March 5 to March 11, the CSI 300 index rose by 2.21%, while the Shenwan Computer Industry Index increased by 5.83%, with all sub-sectors showing positive growth [18][19]. - The report notes that the Shenwan Computer Industry's price-to-earnings ratio is 208.85 times, with a significant premium over the CSI 300 index [19]. Weekly Strategy - The report emphasizes the sustained high demand for AI computing power and the potential for domestic models like MiniMax M2.5 and Kimi K2.5 to become key choices for high-token consumption applications [25]. - The ongoing evolution of AI applications and the rapid development of intelligent agents are expected to catalyze commercial opportunities in the industry [25].

Key Insights - The report highlights that domestic AI models are leading globally, with significant growth in AI computing power and applications [5][15][46] - The overall rating for the computer industry is maintained at "neutral," with a recommendation to "increase holdings" in Hongsoft Technology [6][47] Industry News - OpenRouter reported that Chinese AI models surpassed U.S. models in global token usage for the first time in February 2026, with a total of 4.12 trillion tokens compared to 2.94 trillion tokens from the U.S. [15][16] - The AI model MiniMax M2.5 achieved the highest token usage in February, followed by Kimi K2.5 [16] - OpenClaw, an open-source AI agent project, has gained significant popularity, surpassing Linux in GitHub stars, indicating a shift towards AI agents in the industry [16][18] Industry Data - In January 2026, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the computer industry increased by 1.0% month-on-month and 0.3% year-on-year [3][19] - In 2025, China's software industry generated a total revenue of 154,831 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, with total profits reaching 18,848 billion yuan, up 7.3% [3][25] - The software product revenue in 2025 was 32,361 billion yuan, growing by 10.4% year-on-year [30] Company Announcements - Kingsoft Office reported a revenue of 5.929 billion yuan for 2025, a 15.78% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.843 billion yuan, up 12.03% [36] - Zhuoyi Information achieved a revenue of 338 million yuan in 2025, a 4.42% increase, with a net profit of 82 million yuan, up 150.05% [37] - Pinming Technology reported a revenue of 437 million yuan, a decrease of 2.23%, but a net profit increase of 50.23% [39] Market Review - From February 1 to February 28, the Shenwan Computer Industry Index rose by 1.56%, with IT services leading the sub-sectors at 5.42% [4][40] - As of February 28, 2026, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the Shenwan Computer Industry was 222.32, with a premium of 1541.97% over the CSI 300 [42][43] Monthly Strategy - The report emphasizes that major overseas cloud computing companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta are expected to maintain high capital expenditures in 2026, indicating strong demand for AI computing power [5][46] - The rapid development of AI applications and models is expected to catalyze investment opportunities in the computing power supply chain [46][47]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the computer industry [1] Core Insights - In the 2025 computer performance summary, over half of the companies reported positive growth, indicating a polarized structure with both growth and decline present. Profit improvement outpaced revenue growth, with high growth concentrated in hardware and AI application sectors [3] - Median data shows that the profit performance of computer companies in 2025 outperformed revenue. Among 100 sample companies, the median revenue growth rate was 5.33%, while the median net profit growth rate was 9.72% [3][6] - The report highlights a significant divergence in performance, with 60% of the 100 companies experiencing revenue growth, while 40% faced declines. Notably, 29% of companies reported revenue growth between 10% and 30%, and 11% achieved growth above 30% [3][6] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Performance Distribution**: Of the 358 computer companies that released performance reports, 100 were analyzed. 63 companies (63%) reported net profit growth, while 37 companies (37%) experienced declines. The distribution of net profit growth rates shows that 29% of companies achieved growth above 30% [3][6] - **Large-cap Companies**: Companies with a net profit of 100 million yuan or more showed stronger growth certainty, with 41.2% in the 10%-30% growth range and 23.5% above 30% [3][6] - **High Growth and Decline**: The report notes that 53 companies (53%) are either in the high growth (30%+) or significant decline (-30%+) categories, indicating a pronounced distribution characteristic in the industry [3][6]

Core Viewpoint - The AI computing sector remains active, with the domestic AI industry chain-focused ETF (589520) experiencing a price increase of 2.4% during the day, marking a second consecutive day of gains [8]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The ETF's price rose by 2.3%, reaching a peak of 0.705, with a trading volume of 56.44 million and a turnover rate of 5.62% [1][8]. - The ETF is a financing and margin trading target, providing an efficient tool for investing in the domestic computing power sector [11][4]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Notable stocks include Yuntian Lifei, which hit the daily limit with a 20% increase, and Sikan Technology, which rose over 10% [12]. - Other stocks such as Youkede and Yunchong Technology saw gains exceeding 8%, while companies like Xinyuan and Yaxin Security also experienced increases [12]. Group 3: AI Model Usage - OpenRouter reported that from February 9 to 15, Chinese models achieved a calling volume of 41.2 trillion tokens, surpassing the 29.4 trillion tokens of U.S. models for the first time [10]. - Four of the top five models by usage are from Chinese manufacturers, contributing 85.7% of the total calling volume [10]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - Analysts believe that the increase in usage of domestic AI models and expectations for monetization will accelerate data calling volume growth and model performance improvement, benefiting the domestic computing power industry chain [10][3]. - International capital is increasingly optimistic about leading Chinese AI models, driven by the commercialization cycle, unexpected progress in international expansion, and favorable valuation comparisons with U.S. tech stocks [3][10].

Core Viewpoint - On February 26, brokerages provided target prices for listed companies, with notable increases for Hongsoft Technology, China Railway, and Yifan Pharmaceutical, showing target price increases of 47.71%, 34.96%, and 32.82% respectively, across the IT services, infrastructure, and chemical pharmaceutical industries [1][2]. Group 1: Target Price Increases - Hongsoft Technology received a target price increase of 47.71%, with a new target price of 71.27 CNY [3]. - China Railway's target price increased by 34.96%, with a new target price of 8.30 CNY [3]. - Yifan Pharmaceutical's target price rose by 32.82%, with a new target price of 17.40 CNY [3]. Group 2: Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 27 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on February 26, with China Railway, Bohui Paper, and Zhujiang Beer each receiving one recommendation [2]. - Bohui Paper's rating was upgraded from "Range Trading" to "Buy" by Guotai Junan Securities [5]. Group 3: Rating Adjustments - Two companies had their ratings downgraded: Baolong Technology from "Buy" to "Hold" by Tianfeng Securities, and Haiguang Information from "Buy" to "Range Trading" by Guotai Junan Securities [6][8]. - The companies involved in the downgrades were Baolong Technology and Haiguang Information [8]. Group 4: First Coverage - Six companies received first coverage on February 26, including Matrix Co. and Anfu Technology, both rated "Outperform" by Guotai Junan Securities [10]. - Other companies receiving first coverage included Aorite with a "Buy" rating from Zhongyou Securities, Delijia with a "Buy" rating from Dongwu Securities, and Hanguo Group with an "Increase" rating from Dongguan Securities [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the target price increases for certain companies, with notable gains for Hongsoft Technology, China Railway, and Yifan Pharmaceutical, showing increases of 47.71%, 34.96%, and 32.82% respectively, across the IT services, infrastructure, and chemical pharmaceuticals sectors [1] Group 2 - On February 26, brokerages lowered ratings for two listed companies, with Tianfeng Securities downgrading Baolong Technology from "Buy" to "Hold" and Qunyi Securities (Hong Kong) downgrading Haiguang Information from "Buy" to "Range Trading" [1]