Semicon 调研回顾：AI 点燃万亿半导体赛道 20260329 摘要 2026 年半导体设备市场由社交转向业务实操，存储领域扩产预期强化， 中微公司等通过 3-5 年长期框架协议锁定供应，交付周期普遍拉长。 北方华创发布 NMC612H 刻蚀机及混合键合设备，湿法工艺覆盖率近 100%；拓荆科技 2026 年新增订单预计 70%以上来自存储板块。 中微公司针对 3D DRAM/GAA 开发高价值量 ICP 设备，计划将薄膜设 备覆盖率从 30%提升至 80%，并扩建三地工厂支撑百亿产值。 华峰测控高端 SoC 测试机进入批量出货年；金海通受益 AI 芯片扩产， 液冷温控系统占比提升，2026 年收入预期超行业平均。 ASMPT 预测 TCB 键合市场 2028 年达 16 亿美元，CAGR 约 30%；江 丰电子零部件业务预计 2027 年成为新盈利增长点。 MicroLED 光互联技术采用"宽而慢"策略，功耗较激光方案降低 68%，核心增量环节集中在 LED 芯片、TIR 透镜及整体解决方案。 目前国内主要设备厂商在先进封装键合领域的布局策略和进展如何？ 国内主要设备厂商均在积极布局键合设备领域，并形 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report's industry investment rating is provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the annual report season approaches, the focus shifts to trading based on performance. With the approaching April performance disclosure period, despite high overseas uncertainties, domestic incremental funds are entering the market, and the focus may gradually shift to trading performance. Historically, April often faces correction pressure, especially for small - cap stocks, and high - expectation individual bonds with high performance certainty may become dominant [2][9]. - Trading based on performance expectations can focus on forecasts and expected differences. This April still faces pressure, with a relatively high proportion of negative performance forecasts. The probability of consecutive losses has increased, and the frequency and probability of both revenue and net profit growth have declined. Enterprise profitability is still under slight pressure [2][12]. - High - performing convertible bonds may be disclosed earlier. Most of the disclosed annual reports show that the net profit performance exceeds the performance forecast or expectations, and issuers with optimistic performance may disclose their annual reports earlier [18]. - The key time points in April are the first and middle ten - days. The performance of net profit disclosed at the end of the month weakens. It is advisable to focus on high - expectation convertible bonds with early - scheduled disclosure dates [22]. - The convertible bond strategy is to maintain a neutral position and be vigilant against the supplementary decline of low - parity bonds. Currently, the convertible bond valuation is in a neutral position, and the valuation correction of new - issue bonds is not yet complete. It is necessary to be cautious about individual bonds with a certain distance from a 0% conversion premium rate or pure bond premium rate. It is also necessary to avoid some high - risk convertible bonds and be vigilant against the supplementary decline risk of debt - oriented and balanced convertible bonds [3][30]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 4 - month Performance Expectation Trading - **Market Environment**: Overseas risk events continue to unfold. After the correction caused by the geopolitical conflict, the Shanghai Composite Index oscillated after returning to 3800 points. With the approaching performance disclosure period in April, the focus may shift to trading performance. Historically, April often faces correction pressure, especially for small - cap stocks [2][9]. - **Performance Forecast Analysis**: This year, 176 convertible bond issuers disclosed 2025 performance forecasts, with 121 negative forecasts, accounting for 68.75%, a slight increase compared to the same period in 2025. The frequency and probability of consecutive losses have increased, and the pre - increase proportion has decreased. Among the 67 convertible bonds that disclosed performance reports, the frequency and probability of both revenue and net profit growth have declined. Although the year - on - year revenue performance in the annual report has improved due to the low - base effect in 2025, the net profit has turned negative, and enterprise profitability is still under slight pressure [12]. - **Early Disclosure of High - performing Bonds**: Among the 28 convertible bonds whose underlying stocks have disclosed annual reports, 21 have institutional profit forecasts. 8 bonds' disclosed net profit exceeds the consensus expectation, and 9 bonds' underlying stocks' year - on - year net profit growth rate exceeds the forecast upper limit. Among the 11 companies without forecasts and institutional coverage, only 3 have a negative year - on - year net profit increase. Overall, most net profit performances exceed the performance forecast or expectations, and issuers with good performance may disclose their annual reports earlier [18]. - **Key Time Points in April**: Reviewing the disclosure time and performance of convertible bond underlying stocks from 2022 - 2024, it is found that high - performing bonds are disclosed earlier. The performance of net profit disclosed at the end of the month weakens. It is advisable to focus on high - expectation convertible bonds with early - scheduled disclosure dates, such as Dingjie, Yunji, Julong, Ruichuang, and Aiwei convertible bonds [22]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Strategy: Neutral Position and Caution Against Low - Parity Supplementary Decline - **Market Situation**: The equity market lacks a clear trading mainline under high macro - uncertainty. After a rapid and comprehensive adjustment on Monday, the market entered a wide - range oscillation from Tuesday to Friday. The technology sector fluctuated significantly, and the new energy and chemical sectors performed prominently [28]. - **Valuation and Strategy**: The convertible bond valuation has reached a short - term anchor point. The average price of convertible bonds increased by 1.19% to 136.84 yuan, and the 100 - yuan premium rate increased by 2.13 percentage points to 35.97%. It is recommended to maintain a neutral position. The valuation correction of new - issue bonds is not yet complete, and it is necessary to be cautious about individual bonds with a certain distance from a 0% conversion premium rate or pure bond premium rate. It is also necessary to avoid some high - risk convertible bonds and be vigilant against the supplementary decline risk of debt - oriented and balanced convertible bonds [30]. 3.3 Market Review: Convertible Bonds Rose Weekly, and Valuation Increased - **Weekly Market Performance**: Most major stock indices declined last week. The CSI 300 index fell by 1.41%, the CSI 500 fell by 0.29%, the CSI 1000 fell by 0.48%, the CSI 2000 rose by 0.35%, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 1.28%. The convertible bonds performed relatively well. The performance of popular concepts was divergent [36]. - **Valuation Performance**: The closing prices of equity - oriented, debt - oriented, and balanced convertible bonds all increased. The proportion of convertible bonds in the range above 150 yuan increased significantly. The median price increased by 1.21%. The average premium rate of low - rated and small - scale convertible bonds increased significantly. The conversion premium rate of convertible bonds in the parity range below 80 (inclusive) increased by 5.81 percentage points [43]. 3.4 Terms and Supply: No Convertible Bonds Announced Forced Redemption, and the Total Newly Promoted Scale was Approximately 7.248 billion - **Terms**: As of March 27, no convertible bonds announced early redemption. Huamao Convertible Bond announced not to redeem early. Several convertible bonds, such as Yiwei, Jinhong, Zhenhua, Tianhao, Jieneng, Tongyu, and Jinji, announced that they were expected to meet the forced - redemption conditions. No convertible bonds proposed a downward - revision plan. Weining Convertible Bond announced the downward - revision result, and several convertible bonds announced not to revise downward. Some convertible bonds were expected to trigger downward revision [61]. - **Primary Market**: Last week, Xianghe Convertible Bond was listed, with a scale of 400 million yuan. There were 361 issued and unexpired convertible bonds, with a balance of 50.3643 billion yuan. Some convertible bonds, such as Shang 26, Boshi, and Changgao, have not been listed yet, and Changgao Convertible Bond will be listed on March 30. There are currently no convertible bonds to be issued. Last week, 2 companies had new board proposals, 3 companies passed the general meeting, and there were no new approvals from the issuing review committee or the CSRC. Compared with the same period last year, the numbers were - 1, +3, - 1, and +0 respectively [64][65].

证券代码：688200 证券简称：华峰测控 公告编号：2026-006 北京华峰测控技术股份有限公司 关于 2024 年限制性股票激励计划首次授予部分 第一个归属期归属结果公告 （五）2024 年 7 月 8 日，公司召开了第三届董事会第五次会议、第三届监 事会第五次会议，会议审议通过了《关于向公司 2024 年限制性股票激励计划的 激励对象首次授予限制性股票的议案》。监事会对首次授予日的激励对象名单进 行核实并发表了核查意见。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性依法承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 根据中国证券监督管理委员会、上海证券交易所、中国证券登记结算有限责 任公司上海分公司有关业务规则的规定，北京华峰测控技术股份有限公司（以下 简称"公司"）于 2026 年 3 月 24 日收到中国证券登记结算有限责任公司上海分 公司出具的《过户登记确认书》，完成了公司 2024 年限制性股票激励计划（以 下简称"本次激励计划"）首次授予部分第一个归属期归属的股份登记工作。现 将有关情况公告如下： 一、本次限制性股票激励计划的决策程序及 ...

中国国际金融股份有限公司 关于北京华峰测控技术股份有限公司 一致行动人协议到期终止暨公司变更为无实际控制人的核查意见 中国国际金融股份有限公司（以下简称"保荐机构"）作为北京华峰测控技术股份 有限公司（以下简称"华峰测控"或"公司"）首次公开发行股票并在科创板上市的保 荐机构，根据《证券发行上市保荐业务管理办法》《上海证券交易所科创板股票上市规 则》《上海证券交易所科创板上市公司自律监管指引第 1 号——规范运作》等有关规定， 就华峰测控一致行动人协议到期终止暨公司变更为无实际控制人事项进行了核查，具体 情况如下： 一、《一致行动人协议》签署、履行及到期终止情况 （一）《一致行动人协议》签署及履行情况 公司在 2020 年 2 月 18 日发行上市前，孙铣、孙镪、徐捷爽、蔡琳、周鹏、王晓强、 付卫东、王皓八人曾达成《一致行动人协议》，孙铣先生于 2021 年 6 月 5 日去世后，其 生前持有的芯华控股 17.62%的股权，由张秀云女士作为孙铣先生配偶继承持有。2022 年 1 月 12 日，张秀云、孙镪、徐捷爽、蔡琳、周鹏、王晓强、付卫东和王皓签署新的 《一致行动人协议之补充协议》，公司实际控制人由孙铣、孙 ...

证券代码：688200 证券简称：华峰测控 公告编号：2026-005 北京华峰测控技术股份有限公司 关于股东解除一致行动人协议暨公司变更为 无实际控制人的提示性公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 本次权益变动不涉及股份数量变动，系北京华峰测控技术股份有限公司 （以下简称"华峰测控"或"公司"）实际控制人孙镪、蔡琳、徐捷爽、周鹏四 人的《一致行动人协议》到期后不再续签，一致行动及共同控制关系将于《一致 行动人协议》到期后解除。 《一致行动人协议》到期终止后，上述四位股东直接/间接持有的公司股 份数量和比例保持不变，相关股份将不再合并计算。 《一致行动人协议》解除后，公司将由原四名一致行动人共同控制变更 为无实际控制人。 公司于近日收到公司股东孙镪、蔡琳、徐捷爽、周鹏出具的《一致行动人协 议之终止协议》。一致行动人协议终止后，孙镪、蔡琳、徐捷爽、周鹏直接持有 和间接持有的公司股份数量和比例均保持不变，相关股份不再合并计算；公司控 股股东为天津芯华投资控股有限公司，实际控制人将由孙镪、蔡琳、徐捷爽 ...

北京华峰测控技术股份有限公司 姓名：孙镪 住所：北京市海淀区 通讯地址：北京市海淀区丰豪东路9号院5号楼 详式权益变动报告书 上市公司名称：北京华峰测控技术股份有限公司 信息披露义务人一 信息披露义务人二 信息披露义务人三 信息披露义务人四 姓名：周鹏 住所：北京市海淀区 股票上市地点：上海证券交易所 股票简称：华峰测控 股票代码：688200 四、本次权益变动是根据本报告书所载明的资料进行的。除本报告书披露的 信息和委托的专业机构外，信息披露义务人没有委托或者授权任何其他人提供未 在本报告书中列载的信息和对本报告书做出任何解释或者说明。 姓名：蔡琳 住所：北京市海淀区 通讯地址：北京市海淀区丰豪东路9号院5号楼 姓名：徐捷爽 住所：北京市海淀区 通讯地址：北京市海淀区丰豪东路9号院5号楼 通讯地址：北京市海淀区丰豪东路9号院5号楼 股份变动性质：本次权益变动不涉及信息披露义务人持有公司股份数量的变 动，是由于信息披露义务人孙镪、蔡琳、徐捷爽、周鹏签署的《一致行动人协议 》到期终止不再续签，相关股份不再合并计算。不涉及持股数量的变动。 签署日期：2026年3月2日 信息披露义务人声明 一、本报告书依据《中华人 ...

北京德和衡律师事务所 B E I J I N G D H H L A W F I R M 北京德和衡律师事务所 关于北京华峰测控技术股份有限公司 一致行动人协议到期终止暨实际控制人变更的 关于北京华峰测控技术股份有限公司 一致行动人协议到期终止暨实际控制人变更的 法律意见书 德和衡证律意见（2026）第00070号 Tel：010-85407666 邮编：100022 B E I J I N G D H H L A W F I R M 中国北京市朝阳区建国门外大街 2 号银泰中心 C 座 12 层 www.deheng.com.cn 北京德和衡律师事务所 法律意见书 德和衡证律意见（2026）第 00070 号 致：北京华峰测控技术股份有限公司 北京德和衡律师事务所（以下简称"本所"）接受北京华峰测控技术股份有限公司（以下 简称"公司"或"华峰测控"）委托，根据《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民共和国证券 法》《上市公司收购管理办法》《上海证券交易所股票上市规则》等法律、法规和其他规范性 文件以及《北京华峰测控技术股份有限公司章程》（以下简称《公司章程》）的有关规定，按 照律师行业公认的业务标准、道德规范和勤 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that SK Hynix has announced a significant investment of 21.6 trillion KRW (approximately 150.7 billion USD) to build its first factory and cleanroom facilities, with production expected to accelerate due to tight supply conditions in the DRAM and NAND markets [3] - The domestic advanced logic expansion is expected to exceed expectations, driven by the booming AI industry and increasing demand for advanced process foundry services [4] - The report emphasizes the trend of domestic semiconductor equipment localization, with over 55% of new production line investments in domestic wafer fabs expected to be in domestic equipment by 2025 [4] - NVIDIA's introduction of the Feynman chip with 3D packaging and hybrid bonding is anticipated to create significant growth opportunities for advanced packaging and hybrid bonding equipment [5] Summary by Sections SK Hynix Investment - SK Hynix's investment is a clear signal for global storage expansion, responding to AI-driven demand and supply constraints [3] Domestic Advanced Logic Expansion - The report notes that major domestic players are accelerating high-end manufacturing layouts, with a strong demand for advanced logic foundry services [4] Semiconductor Equipment Localization - The report discusses the impact of export controls on Japanese entities, leading to a shift towards domestic semiconductor equipment, particularly in critical processes like etching and cleaning [4] Advanced Packaging Trends - NVIDIA's advancements in 3D packaging are expected to drive growth in the advanced packaging sector, with domestic companies positioning themselves to benefit from this trend [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant performance of overseas semiconductor component companies, which have led the semiconductor asset market since 2026, driven by strong demand from AI and increased capital expenditures from major players like TSMC and SK Hynix [3][6]. Group 1: Performance of Semiconductor Component Companies - Since the beginning of 2026, companies like UCT, MKS, and VAT have seen substantial stock price increases of 134%, 62%, and 38% respectively, outperforming major semiconductor manufacturers like SK Hynix and LAM [3][4]. - UCT has outperformed SK Hynix and LAM by 78% and 90% respectively in terms of stock performance since the start of the year [4]. - The capital expenditure for TSMC has been raised to between $52 billion and $56 billion for 2026, indicating a strong demand for AI-related products [6][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Growth Potential - The semiconductor component sector is experiencing a significant upturn due to high-capacity utilization rates and increased capital expenditures, with a notable increase in orders for semiconductor equipment [6][12]. - The global semiconductor wafer fabrication capital expenditure is expected to rise significantly, with TSMC, SK Hynix, and Samsung all increasing their budgets for 2026 [7][20]. - The domestic semiconductor market in China is projected to have a supply-demand gap of 27.6% for storage chips, indicating strong growth potential for local manufacturers [21][22]. Group 3: A-Share Market Valuation - A-share semiconductor component stocks are considered undervalued compared to their overseas counterparts, with a current average PE ratio of 51X compared to 89X for overseas companies [33][36]. - The A-share semiconductor component sector has shown a 120-day stock price increase of 42%, while the overall sector has lagged behind other segments [33][36]. - The expected CAGR for revenue and profit from 2025 to 2027 for A-share semiconductor components is 33% and 214% respectively, indicating strong growth prospects [33][36]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Localization - The article emphasizes the importance of supply chain localization, with a focus on increasing domestic production capabilities in response to export controls from the US and Japan [30][32]. - The domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers are at historically low inventory levels, suggesting a need for rapid replenishment as demand increases [23][24]. - The article notes that over 100 domestic semiconductor equipment companies have been placed on the entity list, which will impact their access to US technology and components [30][31].

Investment Thesis - The semiconductor equipment industry is expected to see significant growth driven by AI-related demand, with capital expenditures entering a new upward cycle. The global semiconductor equipment market is projected to reach a record high, supported by advancements in advanced logic and memory production [2][29] - The transition from FinFET to GAA/CFET in advanced logic and the upgrade of DRAM and 3D NAND technologies are leading to substantial increases in capital investment per unit of production capacity [2][29] - The domestic semiconductor equipment market is experiencing a shift towards localization due to external sanctions, with the domestic procurement rate for critical equipment expected to rise significantly [2][29] Industry Performance - The semiconductor equipment companies are showing robust revenue growth, with total revenues for selected companies reaching 732.2 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and 648.0 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 32% increase [12][26] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 119.0 billion yuan in 2024, up 15% year-on-year, and 110.4 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 28% increase [12][26] - The industry is maintaining high R&D investment levels, with R&D expenditures reaching 139.88 billion yuan in 2024, a 34.7% increase year-on-year [22][26] Market Dynamics - The global semiconductor equipment market is expected to grow to 133 billion USD in 2025, driven by AI investments, with further growth anticipated in subsequent years [30][32] - China is becoming a crucial market for semiconductor equipment, with its market share expected to reach 42% of global sales by 2024, significantly higher than other regions [33][36] - The domestic wafer manufacturing capacity is projected to increase from 16% in 2021 to 22% in 2024, indicating substantial room for growth in local production capabilities [36][38] Company Insights - Key domestic companies such as North Huachuang and Zhongwei Company are recommended for investment due to their strong market positions and growth potential in the semiconductor equipment sector [2][12] - The upcoming IPOs of major storage manufacturers are expected to provide significant capital for expansion, with Longxin Storage projected to achieve revenues of 550-580 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 127%-140% [54][58] - The production capacity of leading domestic manufacturers is still significantly lower than that of international leaders, indicating potential for future expansion [50][49]