鑫新闻 研究所日报 2026 年 01 月 08 日 星期四 1. 截至2025年12月末，我国外汇储备规模为33579亿美元，环比上升115亿美元，再创2015年12月以 来新高；黄金储备规模为7415万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，为连续第14个月增加。点评：我国外汇储 备规模创出2015年末以来的最高值，主要得益于我国贸易差额持续攀升。另外人民银行持有黄金数量 持续攀升，官方储备资产多元化趋势明显。从全球范围看，2022年以来全球央行总体加速购进黄金， 根据wind统计数据，2022年全球央行净购金量1080吨，2023年1050吨，2024年1089吨，系自有数据以 来的全球央行增持黄金最高的三年，此前最高年度为2018年净购金合计656吨，2025年全球央行购金量 环比降低至634吨，虽然环比下降明显，但对比历史数据仍然居于高位。作为央行储备资产之一，黄金 正在不断挤压美元份额。 2. 央行公告，1月8日将开展11000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购操作。点评：1月8日有11000亿元3个月 期买断式逆回购到期，此次操作将实现等量对冲，也是该政策工具连续第三个月等量续作。央行月初 快速回收OMO存量，其规模降至 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the A-share market post-New Year, anticipating a "good start" after the holiday due to the rise in Hong Kong stocks and the A50 index [1][2][50] - There is uncertainty regarding the sustainability of the three driving factors behind the recent A-share rally: the A500 ETF's volume and price increase, the strength of optical modules, and the booming commercial aerospace sector [1][2][50] - The mid-term outlook suggests that the market may continue to rise before March, with a general recommendation to be bullish and proactive in investments [1][2][50] Market Overview - The market experienced narrow fluctuations before the New Year, with most broad indices slightly declining; the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 fell by 0.59% and 0.47% respectively [10][48] - The A500 ETF's share increased by only 1.58 billion shares in the last three days before the holiday, a significant drop from the previous week [10][48] - The overall market sentiment indicated a tendency to "rest and prepare for the next battle," as reflected in the low volatility before the holiday [10][48] Sector Observations - The report highlights strong performance in the petrochemical and commercial aerospace sectors, with the oil and petrochemical sector rising by 3.92% and the commercial aerospace sector increasing by 3.05% [13][49] - The report notes a resurgence in interest in robotics and AI applications, with automotive and machinery sectors rising by 1.44% and 1.32% respectively, while consumer sectors like food and beverage saw declines [13][49] Fund Flow Analysis - The latest margin trading balance reached 2.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.47% from the previous week, indicating a positive trend in fund inflow [26][48] - The report indicates that the securities ETF saw the highest net inflow of 13.1 billion yuan, while the electronic ETF experienced the largest outflow of 8.9 billion yuan [26][48] Valuation Insights - The dynamic valuation model shows that the current market indices have seen an increase in valuation levels, with the Shanghai Composite Index's PE-TTM at 16.59, placing it in the 91.99 percentile [40][42] - The Shenzhen Component Index's PE-TTM is at 31.24, in the 77.52 percentile, indicating a generally elevated valuation across major indices [40][42]

行业板块方面，31个申万一级板块指数中，累计共有8个板块在近20年1月期间的上涨比例超50%（不含 50%），分别为银行、国防军工、钢铁、家用电器、交通运输、汽车、机械设备、石油石化，其中，银 行、国防军工板块上涨比例双双超60%。另有13个板块跌多涨少，其中，公用事业、纺织服饰、建筑装 饰、环保、食品饮料板块上涨比例相对靠后。 以平均涨幅统计，家用电器、银行、计算机板块近20年1月期间平均涨幅超1%，各为1.9%、1.9%、 1.0%，有色金属、美容护理、钢铁、传媒、煤炭五个板块也同样收涨。而公用事业、环保、通信、商 贸零售、食品饮料、建筑装饰板块历史数据则相对表现不佳，平均跌幅在1.6%以上。 注：上证指数近20年（2005年至2024年）1月期间涨跌幅情况 其余主要指数方面，以上涨比例来看，科创50、红利指数、中证红利、深证成指在近20年1月期间上涨 比例在5成以上（不含5成，不足20年以实际年份统计），分别达60%、58%、58%、55%。而国证 2000、中证2000、中证1000、创业板指、中证全指则跌多涨少。若以平均涨跌幅来看，中证红利、红利 指数在1月期间相对占优，平均涨幅各为0.98%、0. ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets saw 4,239 stocks rise, 858 stocks fall, and 78 stocks remain unchanged, with a total trading volume of 1.73 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 70.43 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [5] - The net inflow of main funds into the market was 1.409 billion yuan [5] Sector Performance - The automotive parts sector led the net inflow of main funds, followed by energy metals, general equipment, commercial retail, and tourism hotels [5] - The semiconductor sector experienced the highest net outflow of main funds, followed by electronic components, banks, pharmaceutical retail, and optical electronics [5] Analyst Insights - Senior market analyst Xu Xiaoming noted that the Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded for the third consecutive day, with a high point appearing in the 60-minute sequence [5] - The analyst indicated that the coordination among indices is generally low, suggesting that the high point level is not significant, and advised against chasing prices at this stage [5] - The market outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with a need to observe speed and trend developments without being overly optimistic [5]

Core Viewpoint - The ChiNext 50 index experienced a decline of over 1% on November 17, with notable drops in specific companies such as Ninebot, Tuojing Technology, and Cambricon, which fell more than 5% and nearly 3% respectively [1] Company Performance - Ninebot saw a decline of over 5% [1] - Tuojing Technology also experienced a drop exceeding 5% [1] - Cambricon's stock fell nearly 3% [1] Industry Overview - The overall performance of the ChiNext 50 index indicates a bearish trend in the technology sector, reflecting broader market challenges [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ChiNext 50 index has declined by over 1%, indicating a downturn in the technology sector, with specific companies experiencing significant drops in their stock prices [1] Company Performance - Ninebot Company and Tuojing Technology both saw their stock prices fall by over 5% [1] - Cambricon Technologies experienced a decline of over 3% [1]

Core Points - A-shares showed signs of recovery after hitting a low, with the Shanghai Composite Index leading the rebound [1] - The ChiNext Index experienced a narrowing decline of 0.56%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.4%, having previously dropped over 1% [1] Summary by Index - **Shanghai Composite Index**: Closed at 4006.86, up by 4.11 points, representing a 0.10% increase [2] - **ChiNext Index**: Closed at 3116.69, down by 17.63 points, reflecting a 0.56% decrease [2] - **Shenzhen Component Index**: Closed at 13235.27, down by 53.74 points, indicating a 0.40% decline [2] - **STAR 50 Index**: Closed at 1374.20, down by 13.33 points, showing a 0.96% decrease [2] - **North Exchange 50 Index**: Closed at 1489.91, down by 7.23 points, a 0.48% decline [2] - **CSI 300 Index**: Closed at 4651.92, down by 0.24 points, a negligible 0.01% decrease [2] - **Shanghai 50 Index**: Closed at 3049.50, up by 14.87 points, indicating a 0.49% increase [2]

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index turning positive after previously declining over 0.4% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3958.79, up by 4.00 points or 0.10% [1] - The ChiNext Index fell by 32.07 points, closing at 3155.47, a decrease of 1.01% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 111.38 points, ending at 13266.83, down 0.83% [1] - The STAR Market 50 Index dropped by 29.47 points, closing at 1386.06, a decline of 2.08% [1] - The North Exchange 50 Index increased by 3.85 points, closing at 1586.57, up 0.24% [1] - The CSI 300 Index fell by 15.34 points, closing at 4625.33, down 0.33% [1] - The Hang Seng 50 Index decreased by 5.45 points, closing at 3006.10, down 0.18% [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the performance of the Chinese stock market, particularly focusing on the 创业板 (ChiNext) and 科创 50 (STAR Market) indices, as well as the broader market represented by 上证指数 (Shanghai Composite Index) and 上证 50 (SSE 50) [1][2][3][4][6][10]. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Performance and Uncertainty** - Recent market volatility has been significant, with the Shanghai Composite Index and SSE 50 outperforming the 创业板 and 科创 50 indices, indicating market uncertainty and investor sentiment being easily influenced [1][2][3]. 2. **B Wave Rebound Expectations** - A judgment was made on October 17 that the adjustment phase was nearing its end, with expectations for a B wave rebound. The rebound has exceeded expectations but requires monitoring of trading volume and the separation of index performance from individual stocks [1][4][10]. 3. **Sector Performance** - Technology-related sectors, particularly TMT (Telecommunications, Media, Technology) and robotics, have shown strong performance, while dividend and consumer stocks have lagged [1][13]. 4. **Key Resistance Levels** - The Shanghai Composite Index is at a critical resistance level of 3,950 points, which is a sensitive position that could lead to either a breakout or a pullback [1][16]. 5. **Brokerage Sector Influence** - The brokerage sector is crucial for market direction. A strong performance from brokerages could lead to upward momentum in the market, while weakness could hinder progress [7][19]. 6. **Volume and New Capital Concerns** - Current market rebounds are characterized by insufficient trading volume and a lack of new capital inflow, raising concerns about the sustainability of price increases [9][12]. 7. **Future Market Outlook** - The future trajectory of the 创业板 remains uncertain, with potential for either continued upward movement or a C wave adjustment depending on market performance in the coming days [14][20]. 8. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** - A cautious approach is advised, with recommendations to maintain existing positions and avoid new investments in the current volatile environment. Focus should be on brokerage stocks, which are seen as pivotal for market direction [17][26]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Historical Context** - The current market situation is compared to historical patterns, suggesting that similar conditions in the past have led to significant adjustments before new highs were achieved [16][24]. 2. **Feedback Effects** - The positive feedback effect from leveraged trading and buyer incentives is noted as a factor contributing to the current bull market, although there are risks of negative feedback if volatility reaches extreme levels [27]. 3. **Balanced Sector Allocation** - There is no clear sector dominance; a balanced approach to sector allocation is recommended to mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations [28]. 4. **Potential for Market Correction** - The market may face corrections if key indices do not maintain upward momentum, with specific attention to the performance of the brokerage sector as a leading indicator [25]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market dynamics and future outlook.

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed strength again, with the Shenzhen Component Index turning positive and the ChiNext Index rising nearly 0.1%, after previously experiencing declines of over 1% [1]. Index Performance Summary - Shanghai Composite Index: 3913.52, down 2.81 points, a decrease of 0.07% [2] - ChiNext Index: 3084.45, up 0.73 points, an increase of 0.02% [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 13068.94, down 8.38 points, a decrease of 0.06% [2] - STAR 50 Index: 1398.95, down 7.36 points, a decrease of 0.52% [2] - Northern Exchange 50 Index: 1486.65, up 28.22 points, an increase of 1.94% [2] - CSI 300 Index: 4600.74, down 7.14 points, a decrease of 0.15% [2] - Shanghai 50 Index: 3003.14, down 4.13 points, a decrease of 0.14% [2]