市场对国产算力的担忧主要源于关税、贸易战及 H20 禁令，导致资本开 支下滑，但 5 月起海外推理和应用端需求回升，表明商业闭环已形成， 如 ASIC 推理芯片、甲骨文算力租赁及 Google TOKEN 量增加。 国产算力板块盈利能力改善，以交换机为代表的细分领域业绩显现，估 值角度优于新易盛、旭创等公司，PB 角度也更具优势，核心矛盾逐步解 决。 中兴通讯作为重点标的，具备业绩释放和技术突破双线驱动。虽 2025 年受运营商资本开支下滑影响，但预计 2026 年 5G 投资恢复，算力侧 资本开支增加，且在 GPU 芯片、交换芯片等核心领域布局领先。 近期美国对半导体加征关税虽短期利空，但长期将推动国内芯片技术进 步。Deepsec 发布 V3.1 版本模型，提出针对下一代国产芯片设计的新 精度标准，表明国内企业技术突破显著。 海外 GPU 供应存在不确定性，国内寒武纪、昆仑芯和沐曦等企业在 GPU 领域取得进展，DS 计划在下一代产品中使用国产芯片，国产算力 景气度提升。 中兴通讯 20250824 摘要 Q&A 我们推荐国产算力的原因主要有两个方面。首先，全球 AI 产业变革过程中， 2025 年上半年 ...

1. DeepSeek在留言区的一句话，引爆了8月22日A股半导体和算力行情，以寒武纪、海光信息、中科曙 光等为首的龙头个股接连涨停。其中寒武纪股价接连突破1100元和1200元两大关口，最终20CM涨停封 板，收盘价达1243.20元，总市值站上5200亿元。 2.炬芯科技公布2025年半年度报告显示，该公司上半年实现营业收入4.49亿元，同比增长60.12%；归母 净利润0.91亿元，同比增长123.19%；扣非净利润0.86亿元，同比增长269.08%。对于营收变化，炬芯科 技在半年报中表示，2025年上半年，该公司推进端侧产品AI化转型。端侧AI音频芯片方面，该公司基 于第一代存内计算技术的端侧AI音频芯片已成功进入多家头部品牌立项阶段，其中面向低延时私有无 线音频领域的客户终端产品率先实现量产，带动新品起量。同时，炬芯科技端侧AI处理器芯片已落地 头部音频品牌的高端音箱、Party音箱等产品，销售收入实现数倍增长；低延迟高音质无线音频产品市 场需求爆发，销售额攀升；蓝牙音箱SoC芯片系列在头部音频品牌渗透率上升。 3. 盛科通信2025年上半年实现营业收入5.08亿元，同比下降4.56%；归母净利润 ...

苏州盛科通信股份有限公司 为贯彻落实关于开展科创板上市公司"提质增效重回报"专项行动的倡议，落实以投资 者为本的理念，推动苏州盛科通信股份有限公司（以下简称"盛科通信"或"公司"）持续优 化经营、规范治理和积极回报投资者，大力提高上市公司质量，助力信心提振、资本市场稳 定和经济高质量发展的精神要求，结合公司自身发展战略、经营情况和财务情况，公司制定 了盛科通信 2025 年度"提质增效重回报"行动方案，以进一步提升公司经营管理水平，强化 市场竞争力，提升资本市场参与者的信心，稳定股价，树立良好的资本市场形象。 效情况报告如下： 一、持续加大研发投入，坚持技术创新，引领公司高质量发展 盛科通信为国内领先的以太网交换芯片设计企业，以太网交换芯片是构建企业网络、运 营商网络、数据中心网络和工业网络的核心平台型芯片。经过十余年的技术积累，公司现已 形成丰富的以太网交换芯片产品序列，公司在国内具备先发优势和市场引领地位，产品覆盖 从接入层到核心层的以太网交换产品，为我国数字化网络建设提供了丰富的芯片解决方案。 公司面向国家数字化网络建设需求，以打造更快、更灵活、更安全、更智能的网络为目 标，坚持自主研发。基于规模化市场 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Switch Industry and AI Computing Power Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **switch industry**, highlighting its critical role in network interconnection and the growing demand driven by data center construction [4][20]. - The global switch market is projected to grow significantly, with the top five manufacturers holding a substantial market share [4][68]. Key Points and Arguments Market Growth and Demand - The global switch market is expected to grow from **$61.9 billion in 2020** to **$96.8 billion by 2025**, with a **CAGR of 9.4%** [24]. - In China, the market is projected to increase from **¥116.8 billion in 2020** to **¥318 billion by 2025**, with a **CAGR of 22.2%** [24]. - The demand for switches is driven by the increasing data center construction and the need for higher data transfer rates [20][30]. Market Concentration - The top five global switch manufacturers, including **Cisco, Arista, Huawei, HPE, and Xinhua San**, hold **69.6%** of the market share, with Cisco leading at **35.9%** [4][68]. - In China, the top five manufacturers account for **89.7%** of the market, with Huawei at **32.4%** [4][68]. Technological Trends - **White-box technology** is emerging, allowing for hardware-software decoupling, which reduces acquisition and operational costs [31][35]. - The **CPO (Chip-Package-Optical)** switch technology is gaining traction, promising lower power consumption and higher efficiency [36][41]. Chip Market Dynamics - The global Ethernet switch chip market is expected to grow, with commercial vendors driving the majority of the growth [81][86]. - The market is currently dominated by overseas giants, indicating significant room for domestic alternatives [87]. Important but Overlooked Content - The report highlights the **risk factors** including the potential underdevelopment of AI applications, escalating US-China trade tensions, intensified market competition, and the risk of failure in new technology and product development [7]. - The **data center switch market** in China is expected to account for **51.7%** of the total switch market by 2026, indicating a growing reliance on data center infrastructure [30]. Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies such as **Sengke Communication, Yutai Micro, Ruijie Networks, Unisplendour, ZTE, and Feiling Kesi** for potential investment opportunities [6]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding the switch industry and its intersection with AI computing power, providing a comprehensive overview of market dynamics, technological advancements, and investment opportunities.

Group 1 - The semiconductor ETF (159813.SZ) increased by 1.28% as of June 30, with key components such as Cambrian (up 3.79%), Northern Huachuang (up 2.37%), and others showing positive performance [1] - Longxin Technology launched the 3B6000M/2K3000 terminal and industrial control CPU, featuring 8 LA364E processor cores with a clock speed of 2.5GHz, achieving a SPEC CPU2006 single-core score of 30, and supporting 4K video processing at 60 frames per second [1] - The integration of the second-generation self-developed GPGPU core and independent hardware codec module enhances the 4K video processing capabilities of the new CPU [1] Group 2 - Guojin Securities noted that with the increase in domestic AI chip production capacity and the reintroduction of Nvidia's special edition chips for China, capital expenditure growth among internet companies is expected to continue, with domestic AI chip shipments projected to exceed 820,000 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 310% [2] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift in supply-demand dynamics, particularly in the chip segment, as highlighted by Tianfeng Securities, which emphasized that chip costs account for the highest proportion (32%) in the switch industry, directly impacting data processing capabilities [2] - The technological upgrades of Ethernet switch chips are crucial for enhancing the efficiency of computing networks, indicating ongoing advancements in the semiconductor supply chain [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report outlines the ongoing supervision and compliance of Suzhou Shengke Communication Co., Ltd. by China International Capital Corporation, emphasizing the company's commitment to governance, compliance, and strategic R&D investments despite facing financial losses. Ongoing Supervision - The sponsor has established a robust supervision system and executed a work plan for ongoing oversight of Shengke Communication [1][2] - A continuous supervision agreement has been signed, detailing the rights and obligations of both parties during the supervision period [1] - No violations or illegal activities have been reported during the supervision period [2][3] Financial Performance - The company reported a net loss of 68.26 million yuan, an increase in loss of 48.73 million yuan compared to the previous year, primarily due to increased R&D investments [4][5] - R&D expenses reached 428.46 million yuan, a 36.40% increase year-on-year, reflecting the company's long-term strategy focused on innovation [4][5] - The basic earnings per share decreased to -0.17 yuan, and the diluted earnings per share also fell to -0.17 yuan [18] R&D and Innovation - R&D investment accounted for 39.61% of operating revenue, an increase of 9.33 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [19] - The company has developed a series of high-capacity Ethernet switch chips, with initial deliveries made in 2024, enhancing its market position [19][20] - The company holds 1,418 intellectual property rights, including 1,225 invention patents, showcasing its focus on technological advancement [25][26] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Shengke Communication maintains a strong competitive edge in the Ethernet switch chip market, leveraging its deep understanding of network demands and trends [19][20] - The company has established long-term partnerships with major domestic network equipment manufacturers, enhancing customer loyalty and market penetration [22][23] - The company actively participates in industry standard-setting organizations, reinforcing its position in the evolving network technology landscape [21] Risks and Challenges - The company faces risks related to ongoing financial losses, high R&D expenditures, and potential market fluctuations that could impact profitability [5][6] - There is a risk of core talent loss due to competitive pressures in the semiconductor industry, which could affect the company's innovation capabilities [7][8] - The company is also exposed to macroeconomic risks, including potential impacts from international trade policies and currency fluctuations [12][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][5]. Core Views - The company is committed to long-term development and continues to increase R&D investment, focusing on high-end network communication products in the all-connected era [3][8]. - Despite a year-on-year increase in losses, the company is expected to achieve revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of RMB 1.378 billion, RMB 1.779 billion, and RMB 2.187 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 1.082 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.28%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of RMB 68 million, an increase in loss of 249.52% year-on-year [8]. - The company’s R&D expenses for 2024 were RMB 428 million, accounting for 39.61% of revenue, reflecting a 36.40% increase year-on-year [8]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 40.11%, up 3.85 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for Q1 2025 was 44.05%, an increase of 6.11 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve the following revenue and profit figures: - 2025: Revenue of RMB 1.378 billion, net loss of RMB 54 million - 2026: Revenue of RMB 1.779 billion, net profit of RMB 40 million - 2027: Revenue of RMB 2.187 billion, net profit of RMB 123 million [7][22]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has a significant first-mover advantage in the domestic market for Ethernet switching chips, having started R&D in this area in 2005 [8]. - The company aims to enhance its core competitiveness in emerging markets by expanding its product line and optimizing product performance [8].

Macro Strategy - The report analyzes the low consumption rate in China compared to 38 countries, indicating that while disposable income is relatively high, the consumption tendency is low, suggesting that the majority of residents have a willingness to consume but lack the ability to do so [1][11][12] - China's consumption rate is only 37.2%, which is 16.6 percentage points lower than the average of 53.8% among the 38 countries [11] - The report emphasizes the need to increase the income of the middle and low-income groups to stimulate consumption, as the current tax burden on these groups is low, which does not favor consumption [1][12] Fixed Income - Following the recent interest rate cuts, short-term interest rates have decreased while long-term rates have increased, indicating a market adjustment to the new monetary policy [5][17] - The report suggests that the long-term interest rate trend remains downward, but the market has overreacted to the rate cut expectations, requiring time for adjustment [5][17] - The current yield curve indicates a reasonable spread between 10-year and 1-year government bonds, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the bond market [5][17] Industry Insights - The report highlights the recent developments in BoRui Pharmaceutical, which is raising 500 million yuan through a private placement, with the controlling shareholder fully subscribing, indicating strong confidence in the company's pipeline [6] - The company is advancing its clinical trials for BGM0504, which shows promising results compared to its competitors, suggesting a potential competitive edge in the market [6] - The report also discusses Kangnong Agriculture's expansion in the Huanghuaihai region, projecting steady growth in profits for 2025 and 2026 due to increased sales [7][8] Communication Industry - Shengke Communication reported a revenue of 1.08 billion yuan in 2024, with a focus on high-end product development and cost optimization, leading to improved gross margins [9] - The company is increasing its R&D investment significantly, which is expected to drive future growth and align with the domestic demand for high-end networking products [9][10] - The report notes that the company has successfully entered the supply chains of major domestic network equipment manufacturers, indicating a strong market position [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is increasing its R&D efforts to meet the domestic demand wave and is expected to make progress in high-end products [1] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be a loss of 68.27 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase in loss compared to the previous year [7] - The gross margin has improved due to the ramp-up of high-end products and cost optimization, with a gross margin of 40.1% in 2024, up 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company is focusing on high-end chip delivery and expanding its customer base, with significant progress in high-end flagship chip products for large-scale data centers and cloud services [7] - R&D investment reached 430 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 36.4%, indicating a strong commitment to innovation and product development [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is forecasted to reach 1.35 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 25.04% [1] - The net profit is expected to improve significantly by 2027, reaching 102.34 million yuan, with a staggering growth rate of 1,270.62% [1] - The company's latest closing price corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio of 20.2 for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation for potential investors [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" (maintained) with a current stock price of 63.66 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company has increased its R&D investment significantly, leading to a small batch delivery of high-end flagship chips. Despite this, the profit margins are under pressure due to the high R&D costs [7][8]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.082 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.28%, but reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 68.26 million yuan, a decrease of 249.52% year-on-year [4][7]. - The company is positioned as a rare domestic Ethernet switch chip design enterprise, with a rich product lineup targeting the mid-to-high-end market. The demand for high-performance switching chips in emerging fields like cloud computing and data centers is expected to drive future growth [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.082 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.28%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -68.26 million yuan, a decrease of 249.52% year-on-year [4][7]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 223 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.30%, with a net loss of 15.20 million yuan, a decrease of 150.42% year-on-year [4][7]. Revenue and Profitability - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 40.11%, an increase of 3.85 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -6.31%, a decrease of 4.43 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company’s R&D expenses reached 428 million yuan in 2024, a growth of 36.40%, reflecting its commitment to high-end chip development [7][8]. Product Development - The company has successfully delivered high-end flagship chips in small batches, with a focus on Ethernet switch chips, which generated 835 million yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 5.54% [8]. - The product range includes high-end chips with port speeds reaching 800G and switching capacities of 12.8Tbps and 25.6Tbps, which are competitive with international products [8]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for high-speed network communication equipment driven by the AI industry and the need for domestic supply chain independence [8]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.321 billion yuan, 1.781 billion yuan, and 2.285 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [8].