Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to show strength, with the Chemical ETF (516020) experiencing a price increase of 0.77% as of the latest update [1][9] - Key stocks in the sector include Tongcheng New Materials, which hit the daily limit, and Hongda Co., which rose over 4%, along with Guangdong Hongda and Boyuan Chemical, both up over 3% [1][9] - The Chemical ETF has seen significant net inflows, with over 3.1 billion yuan in net subscriptions in the last five trading days and a total of over 6.3 billion yuan in the last ten days [2][11] Group 2 - The Chemical ETF's underlying index has shown a cumulative increase of 46.38% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index (23.1%) and the CSI 300 Index (20.51%) [2][12] - The basic chemical sector has received a net inflow of over 134 billion yuan in a single day, leading among 30 sectors tracked by CITIC [4][11] - Historical performance of the detailed chemical index shows fluctuations, with a notable increase of 41.09% in 2025, following declines in previous years [5][12] Group 3 - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks, including Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Co., allowing investors to capitalize on strong market trends [6][14] - The ETF also includes exposure to various sub-sectors such as phosphate fertilizers, fluorine chemicals, and nitrogen fertilizers, providing a comprehensive investment opportunity in the chemical sector [6][14] - Investors can also access the chemical sector through the Chemical ETF linked funds (Class A 012537/Class C 012538) [6][14]

2020-2025年1-11月中国纯碱(碳酸钠)产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 上市企业：远兴能源（000683）,三友化工（600409）,山东海化（000822）,双环科技（000707）,氯碱化 工（600618）,金晶科技（600586）,湖北宜化（000422）,云图控股（002539）,和邦生物（603077） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国纯碱行业市场专项调研及竞争战略分析报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年11月中国纯碱(碳酸钠)产量为324万吨，同比下降0.5%；2025年1-11 月中国纯碱(碳酸钠)累计产量为3625.6万吨，累计增长4.7%。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Boyuan Chemical has experienced a decline in stock price, falling 0.54% to 7.33 CNY per share, with a total market value of 27.244 billion CNY and a cumulative drop of 6.36% over four consecutive days [1] - Boyuan Chemical's main business includes the production and sales of coal, methanol, fertilizers, soda ash, and sodium bicarbonate, with revenue composition being 60.01% from soda ash, 25.08% from urea, 12.88% from sodium bicarbonate, and 1.56% from other products [1] Group 2 - According to data, Bosera Fund holds a significant position in Boyuan Chemical through its Bosera Growth Selected Mixed A fund, which has 3.78% of its net value in Boyuan Chemical, ranking it as the fourth largest holding [2] - The Bosera Growth Selected Mixed A fund has experienced a floating loss of approximately 159,300 CNY today and a total floating loss of 1.9917 million CNY during the four-day decline [2] Group 3 - The fund managers of Bosera Growth Selected Mixed A are Zeng Hao and Wang Lingxiao, with Zeng having a tenure of 8 years and 20 days, achieving a best fund return of 142.95% during his management [3] - Wang Lingxiao has a tenure of 3 years and 284 days, with a best fund return of 64.99% during his management [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese soda ash industry is undergoing a significant transformation towards natural soda ash production, driven by the cost advantages of natural soda ash and the large-scale production of the Alashan natural soda ash project by Yuanxing Energy [1][11]. Industry Dynamics - The industry is facing a deep adjustment in capacity structure, with high-cost ammonia soda ash enterprises experiencing increasing survival pressure, making the pace and path of capacity elimination a core market focus [2]. - The market share is increasingly concentrated among leading natural soda ash companies, as high-cost ammonia soda ash producers struggle to maintain their positions [14][22]. Yuanxing Energy's Project Progress - Yuanxing Energy's Alashan natural soda ash project is the largest of its kind in China, with a planned capacity of 5 million tons/year for soda ash and 400,000 tons/year for sodium bicarbonate. The first phase began trial production in June 2023 and is expected to reach full capacity by the end of 2024 [3][8]. - In 2024, Yuanxing Energy is projected to produce 5.78 million tons of soda ash, accounting for 15.33% of the national total, with year-on-year increases of 115.05% in production and 123.88% in sales [3]. Market Price Fluctuations - The soda ash futures market has experienced significant fluctuations, categorized into three phases: 1. **Trial Production Phase (April-May 2023)**: Market sentiment was pessimistic, leading to a nearly 40% drop in futures prices from 2500 CNY/ton to around 1550 CNY/ton [5]. 2. **Capacity Ramp-Up Phase (June 2023 - Mid-2024)**: Prices fluctuated due to supply concerns and production delays, with significant price increases in August and subsequent declines as production stabilized [6]. 3. **Full Capacity and Scale Release Phase (Late 2024)**: As full production is achieved, supply increases amid weak demand, leading to a downward price trend from nearly 3000 CNY/ton to 1600 CNY/ton by year-end [7]. Future Capacity and Market Structure - The second phase of Yuanxing Energy's project is progressing, with an additional capacity of 2.8 million tons/year planned. This will further enhance the company's market position and accelerate the industry's transition towards natural soda ash [8][21]. - The industry is expected to see a rise in concentration, with the top five companies projected to hold 54%-56% of the market share by December 2025, leading to increased competition and potential mergers and acquisitions [14][22]. Competitive Landscape - Natural soda ash production is characterized by significant cost advantages, with production costs below 1000 CNY/ton compared to 1300 CNY/ton or higher for ammonia soda ash producers. This cost disparity is driving market share shifts towards natural soda ash companies [11][16]. - High-cost ammonia soda ash producers are facing severe competitive pressures, with many at risk of losing market share due to their inability to compete on price [16][22]. Capacity Elimination Trends - The pace of capacity elimination in the soda ash market is currently slow, as many high-cost producers are reluctant to cease operations due to fears of losing market share. However, the trend towards elimination is expected to accelerate as more natural soda ash capacity comes online [17][19]. - The elimination process is anticipated to follow a "small first, then large" pattern, with smaller, less financially stable ammonia soda ash producers exiting the market first [19].

1月12日，博源化工跌2.38%，截至发稿，报7.37元/股，成交4.76亿元，换手率1.93%，总市值273.93亿 元。博源化工股价已经连续3天下跌，区间累计跌幅6.23%。 资料显示，内蒙古博源化工股份有限公司位于内蒙古自治区鄂尔多斯市东胜区鄂托克西街博源大厦12 层，成立日期1997年1月23日，上市日期1997年1月31日，公司主营业务涉及煤炭、甲醇、化肥、纯碱及 小苏打的生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：纯碱60.01%，尿素25.08%，小苏打12.88%，其他产品 1.56%，其他(补充)0.46%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 博时成长精选混合A（011740）基金经理为曾豪、王凌霄。 截至发稿，曾豪累计任职时间8年19天，现任基金资产总规模44.43亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 142.95%， 任职期间最差基金回报5.34%。 王凌霄累计任职时间3年283天，现任基金资产总规模35.07亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报64.99%， 任职 期间最差基金回报16.04%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The glass industry is currently experiencing a situation where supply has decreased significantly, demand is weak, and inventory shows differentiation. The pressure on inventory after the Spring Festival is relatively high, and more supply clearance is needed. For the纯碱 industry, the pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand continues, and attention should be paid to changes on the supply - side [28][38] Summary by Directory 01 Glass Supply - Recently, there have been many production cuts in the glass industry. Multiple glass production lines in different regions such as Central China, South China, and East China are scheduled for cold repair from the end of 2025 to early 2026, with a total reduction in daily melting capacity. As of December 5, 2025, the total daily melting capacity was 155,965 tons, a 3% decrease compared to the beginning of the year, with a reduction of 4,300 tons [4][7] Demand - There is an expected difference in demand. Downstream customers adopt a back - to - back purchasing model without stockpiling. Demand has declined, with fewer orders. The deep - processing order level is also affected [13] Inventory - Inventory shows differentiation. After the reduction in supply, manufacturers' inventory has shown differences. The inventory decreased last week and is expected to continue to decline next week. However, the upstream inventory reduction is mainly driven by speculative demand from the middle - stream. Continued attention should be paid to the inventory reduction situation [17] Month - to - Month and Basis - The increase in the futures market has strengthened basis trading and driven up upstream prices. The downstream in Shahe has started to participate, but the sustainability is limited. The month - to - month spread remains weak, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [24][26] Market Outlook - Based on a 6% decline in apparent demand, if the current supply remains unchanged, the inventory can be maintained at a reasonably high level. However, considering the relatively high middle - stream inventory, the pattern of squeezing profits will not change. There is an expected seasonal inventory build - up during the Spring Festival, and there is little opportunity for profit. If the profit squeeze continues, the post - festival pressure will not be too great. Theoretically, as long as the supply continues to decrease, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the second half of this year [29] 02纯碱 Supply - The production of soda ash has increased, mainly due to the increased production of the second - phase project in Alxa. Several enterprises and projects are expected to be put into production in the future, including Hubei Xindu Chemical, Hubei Jinjiang New Materials, etc., which will further increase the supply [32][35] Demand - The pattern of downstream customers squeezing profits in the soda ash industry remains unchanged [36] Market Situation - The pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the soda ash industry continues. The spot price remains low, and the month - to - month spread remains weak. Attention should also be paid to the production reduction situation in the future [38][39]

证券日报网讯 1月8日，博源化工在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，阿拉善塔木素天然碱开发利用项 目二期正在试车，目前正处于装置调试、优化和完善阶段。从项目投料试车到全面达产达标需要一定时 间，具体时间取决于后续调试和优化工作的进展。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

（记者 张明双） 博源化工（000683.SZ）1月8日在投资者互动平台表示，阿拉善塔木素天然碱开发利用项目二期正在试 车，目前正处于装置调试、优化和完善阶段。从项目投料试车到全面达产达标需要一定时间，具体时间 取决于后续调试和优化工作的进展。 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：董秘你好，公司新建成的产线什么时间能够出产合格 标准化产品，产能利用率什么时间可以满产？ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, new soda ash production capacity will still be put into operation, with overall sufficient supply. The downstream float glass industry still faces the pressure of declining real - estate demand and is expected to maintain low profits. Driven by the anti - involution policy, the elimination of backward capacity in the float glass industry is expected to accelerate. The problem of excessive supply - demand gap in the downstream photovoltaic glass industry still exists, and there is a possibility of more - than - expected production cuts in the future. The loose supply situation of soda ash in 2025 needs to be improved, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the upper pressure at the 1400 level [3][52] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Soda Ash Price Fluctuated Downward Throughout the Year - In 2025, the domestic soda ash market price fluctuated downward. From January to February, the domestic soda ash futures price rebounded with a high of 1600. From March to June, it fluctuated downward to a low of 1150. In July, it rebounded with a high of 1500. From August onwards, it showed a downward trend [8] Chapter 2: Supply - Side Analysis - **New Capacity Investment Expectations**: In the first half of 2025, the domestic soda ash capacity increased by 230 tons, and the total capacity reached 4110 tons by the end of June. In 2026, there will be a concentrated production - launch wave, with new capacity exceeding 5.5 million tons and the total capacity approaching 47 million tons. Key projects include the full - load operation of the 2.8 million - ton/year natural soda ash of Yuanxing Energy's Alxa Phase II, the gradual output release of Yuntu Holdings' 700,000 - ton soda ash project, the likely completion and operation of Jinshan's 2 - million - ton project, and the planned construction and operation of Hengyang Hengyi Alkali Factory's 1 - million - ton project [11][12] - **High - Level Fluctuation of Soda Ash Operation**: In 2025, the soda ash operation generally maintained an 80% - 90% range. In the first half of the year, there were concentrated enterprise overhauls in March and May, resulting in a significant increase in losses. In the second half of the year, it continued to fluctuate. In November, supply decreased due to equipment fluctuations, and in December, supply increased as overhauls were restored [16] - **Low - Level Fluctuation of Soda Ash Profits**: In 2025, soda ash production profits fluctuated around the break - even point, significantly lower than the previous year. As of December 11, 2025, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton soda ash by the joint - alkali method was - 49 yuan/ton, up 50.25% month - on - month; the theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali method was - 67.60 yuan/ton, up 1.31% month - on - month [19] - **Significant Year - on - Year Increase in Soda Ash Exports**: In 2025, soda ash imports decreased significantly year - on - year, while exports increased significantly, but export prices declined. In January - June, imports were about 18,500 tons, and exports were about 1.0156 million tons, up 126.54% year - on - year. In October, imports were 30 tons, and exports were 214,500 tons, up 14.14% month - on - month and 32.62% year - on - year [21][22] - **High - Level Increase in Soda Ash Manufacturers' Inventory**: In 2025, the enterprise inventory fluctuated at a high level. As of December 11, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.4943 million tons, down 2.88% week - on - week. The soda ash delivery warehouse inventory first rose and then declined [23] Chapter 3: Demand - Side Analysis - **Analysis of Downstream Float Glass Demand** - **Impact of Profits on Float Glass Capacity Utilization**: From January to November 2025, the float glass output was 51.48 million tons, down about 5.2% year - on - year. The overall daily melting volume was stable, with an average industry start - up rate of about 74.32% and a capacity utilization rate of 77.48%. The real - estate demand for float glass is under pressure, and the industry is in the process of capacity clearance [30] - **Float Glass Profits Expected to Remain Low**: In 2025, float glass maintained relatively stable low profits from January to October and declined after October. As of December 18, 2025, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 181.40 yuan/ton, up 15.02 yuan/ton month - on - month; that using coal - gas was - 7.63 yuan/ton, down 14.14 yuan/ton month - on - month; that using petroleum coke was - 0.07 yuan/ton, down 35.71 yuan/ton month - on - month [32] - **Expected Decline in Float Glass Demand and Accelerated Supply Contraction**: In 2025, the float glass price fluctuated weakly. The real - estate sector accounts for 65% of float glass demand, and the real - estate construction area has been declining. In 2026, the real - estate completion area is expected to decline further. The Chinese automobile production is expected to grow moderately in 2026. Driven by the anti - involution policy, the elimination of backward capacity in the float glass industry is expected to accelerate in 2026 [35][37][38] - **Analysis of Downstream Photovoltaic Glass Demand**: The photovoltaic glass price showed a downward trend from 2021 to 2025. In 2025, due to policy - driven terminal power station rush - installation in the second quarter, the price rose, but after that, there was a serious supply - demand mismatch, and the price dropped. In the third quarter, the price returned above the cost line under the "anti - involution" action. By the end of November, the price approached the cash cost line of some enterprises. In the current macro - economic environment, there is limited space for demand stimulation, and there is a possibility of more - than - expected production cuts [40][41] Chapter 4: Analysis of Other Influencing Factors - **Real - Estate and Building Materials Industry Policies**: The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing the real - estate market and promoting the construction of a new real - estate development model. The "Building Materials Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" strictly regulates cement and glass production capacity and promotes the elimination of backward capacity [43][44] - **The Domestic Economy is Expected to Continue to Recover, and Policies are Oriented towards Stabilizing the Economy**: The Central Economic Work Conference stressed implementing more proactive and effective macro - policies, expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, and promoting high - quality economic development [47] Chapter 5: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The supply of soda ash is expected to increase in 2026, and enterprises may increase exports to relieve inventory pressure. The downstream float glass industry faces pressure from declining real - estate demand, and the elimination of backward capacity is expected to accelerate. The photovoltaic glass industry has a large supply - demand gap, and there is a possibility of more - than - expected production cuts. The soda ash futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the upper pressure at the 1400 level [51][52]

人民财讯12月29日电，博源化工（000683）12月29日公告，子公司锡林郭勒苏尼特碱业有限公司（简 称"苏尼特碱业"）受天然碱资源品位下降、产品价格下滑、用工数量多、装置相对老旧、大宗物资采购 成本高等综合因素的影响，运行困难，持续亏损，预计未来较长时间难以扭转亏损的局面。为降低公司 运营成本，避免继续生产导致更大规模的亏损和资金投入，公司决定对苏尼特碱业实施长期停产。 ...