广发宏观周度述评（第38期） 广发宏观周度述评 （ 第1-37期，复盘必读 ） 内容 第一，中国经济增长的五个潜在空间。 "十五五"规划建议稿强调"经济增长保持在合理区间"及 2035 年"人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平"的目 标。从历史数据看，"十三五"、"十四五"期间中国实际 GDP 年均复合增速分别为 5.75% 、 5.40% （以今年 5.0% 估算），从经济连续性的角度，"十五 五" GDP 目标设为 4.8% 左右较为合理。 IMF 对 2026-2030 年全球、新兴市场和发展中经济体（ EMDE ）实际 GDP 年均增速预测分别为 3.2% 、 4.1% ，中国经济保持一定的增速优势亦有利于赶超目标。 未来五年哪些理论上的 " 潜在空间 " 如果能有效打开，可以支持中国经济继续实现超额增速？我们理解至少包括以下几点： 一是长效机制形成，地方投资正常化。 经济的供给端是生产，需求端则是投资、消费、出口，其中任何一项增速过低可能都会带来有效需求不足。 " 十 四五 " 期间固定资产投资年均复合增速（ 2025 年用前三个季度）只有 3.1% ，今年前三季度只有 -0.5% ，这是总需求低于 ...

SAC: S0260522070006 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 SAC: S0260512020003 最近5个交易日，科创50指数涨0.01%，创业板指涨0.65%，大盘价值涨2.33%，大盘成长涨0.28%，上证50涨0.89%，国证2000代表的小盘涨0.52%，电力设 备、煤炭表现靠前，计算机、美容护理表现靠后。 anningning@gf.com.cn 风险溢价，中证全指静态PE的倒数EP减去十年期国债收益率，权益与债券资产隐含收益率对比，截至2025/11/7指标2.78%，两倍标准差边界为4.74%。 广发证券资深金工分析师 张钰东 广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 估值水平，截至2025/11/7，中证全指PETTM分位数82%，上证50与沪深300分别为77%、74%，创业板指接近53%，中证500与中证1000分别为63%、 62%，创业板指风格估值相对历史总体处于中位数水平。 使用卷积神经网络对图表化的价量数据与未来价格进行建模，并将学习的特征映射到行业主题板块中。最新配置主题为银行、能源、红利等，具体包括中 证银行指数、中证能源指数、中 ...

出席本次论坛活动的重磅嘉宾包括工业富联、中际旭创、胜宏科技、蓝思科技、东山精密、领益智造、 协创数据、万国数据、长春高新、晶泰控股、晶晨股份、北京君正、大族数控、源杰科技、剑桥科技、 峰岹科技、杰华特、广和通、博瑞医药、聚辰股份、芯碁微装、劲方医药-B、秦淮数据、天辰生物医 药、先通国际医药、捷利交易宝等公司的高层领导。 在11月6日上午的主论坛上，工业富联董事长郑弘孟、蓝思科技董事长周群飞、源杰科技董事长张欣 刚、秦淮数据总裁汪冬宁、晶泰控股联合创始人兼董事局主席温书豪、长春高新总经理金磊等六位知名 上市公司领导发表了精彩演讲。他们围绕AI+、创新药等年内市场热点话题，分享了对产业趋势的真知 灼见及公司经营发展的最新情况，向海内外投资者展示了投资中国优势资产的确定性价值。 郑弘孟以"先进AI算力解决方案"为主题，阐述了AI服务器市场的超高速增长态势及生成式AI对数据中 心基建的推动作用。他强调，公司正依托AI服务器系统组装的核心优势，打通AI算力供应链多环节， 以智能制造与ESG为双轮驱动，赋能产业高质量发展。 投资快报记者池伟嘉 广州报道 11月6日至7日，"智见中国・扬帆未来"广发证券2025年全球投资 ...

Core Insights - The "Intelligent China: Setting Sail for the Future" forum hosted by GF Securities focused on key sectors such as AI, robotics, new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption, attracting around 80 renowned listed companies and numerous global institutional investors [1][3] - Key speakers included leaders from major companies who shared insights on industry trends and the latest developments in their businesses, emphasizing the value of investing in Chinese assets [1][2] Group 1: AI and Technology - Industrial Fulian's chairman highlighted the rapid growth of the AI server market and the role of generative AI in driving data center infrastructure, focusing on the company's core advantages in AI server system assembly [1][2] - Blue Glass Technology's chairman discussed the challenges and opportunities brought by AI hardware transformation, aiming to become a leader in the trillion-yuan AI hardware market by upgrading from component supplier to solution provider [2] - Qinhuai Data's president emphasized the need for deeper integration of energy and computing, aiming to create a new generation of AI intelligent computing data centers powered by green energy [2] Group 2: Pharmaceuticals and Innovation - The co-founder of Jingtai Holdings discussed how AI and robotics can significantly enhance the speed and efficiency of drug and material discovery, addressing traditional challenges in pharmaceutical development [2] - Changchun High-tech's general manager provided an overview of the company's innovative drug pipeline, reaffirming its commitment to innovation and efficiency in the pharmaceutical sector [2][3] Group 3: Future Directions - GF Securities plans to strengthen its research team in response to global industrial changes, focusing on AI, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while promoting Chinese listed companies to overseas investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Beifang Changlong, announced a change in its sponsor representative due to the work relocation of the original representative, ensuring the continuity of its ongoing supervision responsibilities [2]. Group 1: Company Announcement - Beifang Changlong received a notification from its sponsor institution, GF Securities, regarding the change in the arrangement of the sponsor representative [2]. - GF Securities has been responsible for the company's initial public offering and ongoing supervision since the listing date on April 18, 2023, until December 31, 2026 [2]. - The original representatives, Yang Weiran and Zhao Xin, were appointed for the ongoing supervision, but Yang Weiran can no longer fulfill this role [2]. Group 2: New Appointment - To ensure the orderly continuation of supervision, GF Securities has appointed Dai Ning as the new sponsor representative to replace Yang Weiran [2]. - Dai Ning will continue to fulfill the ongoing supervision responsibilities for Beifang Changlong [2].

11月6日—7日，广发证券（000776）2025年全球投资论坛在香港成功举办。本次论坛的主题为"智见中 国·扬帆未来"，论坛聚焦AI、机器人、新能源、创新药、新消费等赛道，共有约80家知名上市公司应邀 参会，约30位产业链龙头公司董事长和总经理出席会议并与投资者深度交流，现场参会人员超千人。 中国机遇吸引全球目光 2025年，中国资产重估引发全球市场高度关注与积极参与。中国优秀企业在人工智能等产业链关键环节 不断突破，正在重塑全球产业格局，为全球投资者带来前所未有的中国机遇。在此背景下，此次论坛吸 引了众多海内外知名机构投资者参会，包括大量顶级主权基金和国际知名长线基金、对冲基金，显示了 国际投资机构对中国优质上市公司的浓厚兴趣。 近年来，中国优势产业加快出海步伐，境内投资者更加关注海外政策、经济、技术、产业、需求等方面 的变化。另一方面，国内优秀企业的技术创新能力、应用落地能力证明了中国企业在全球AI、新能 源、机器人、创新药等产业链的强劲竞争力，带动了今年以来的中国优势资产重估。在新"国九条"的指 引和推动下，我国进一步深化资本市场改革，坚定不移扩大金融领域高水平对外开放。全球投资者进一 步提升了对A股 ...

Core Insights - The "Intelligent China · Set Sail for the Future" forum hosted by GF Securities in Hong Kong focused on key sectors such as AI, robotics, new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption [1][2] - Approximately 80 well-known listed companies and over 1,000 attendees participated, including executives from 30 leading companies, creating a platform for dialogue between top companies and global investors [1][2] Group 1: Key Themes and Discussions - The forum featured prominent speakers from leading companies, including Zheng Hongmeng from Industrial Fulian and Zhou Qunfei from Lens Technology, who discussed market trends in AI and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][8] - Zheng emphasized the rapid growth of the AI server market and the role of generative AI in driving data center infrastructure, highlighting the company's core advantages in AI server systems [7] - Zhou discussed the challenges and opportunities presented by AI hardware, aiming to transition from a component supplier to a solution provider in the trillion-dollar AI hardware market [7] Group 2: Industry Developments - Wang Dongning from Qinhuai Data highlighted the intersection of the AI and energy revolutions, noting the importance of energy constraints in expanding AI infrastructure [7][8] - Wen Shuhao from Jingtai Holdings discussed the application of AI and robotics in accelerating drug and material discovery, addressing traditional challenges in these fields [8] - Jin Lei from Changchun High-tech provided insights into the company's innovative drug pipeline and its commitment to enhancing R&D efficiency [8] Group 3: GF Securities' Strategic Direction - GF Securities is enhancing its research capabilities to align with global industry changes, focusing on sectors like AI, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [9] - The company aims to strengthen its international presence by promoting Chinese listed companies to overseas investors and developing an English research product system [9] - The integration of domestic and international research efforts is expected to enhance the company's brand influence in the global market [9]

Core Insights - The "Intelligent China: Setting Sail for the Future" Global Investment Forum hosted by GF Securities in Hong Kong on November 6-7, 2023, attracted over a thousand participants, including top leaders from domestic listed companies and renowned global investment institutions [1][3][4] - The forum focused on key sectors such as AI, robotics, new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption, featuring around 80 well-known listed companies and approximately 30 industry leaders engaging in deep discussions with investors [3][4] - GF Securities is enhancing its international business efforts, positioning itself to compete with top global investment banks, driven by the need for internationalization and transformation of sell-side research [5][6] Group 1: Forum Highlights - The forum showcased insights from prominent figures such as Zheng Hongmeng (Industrial Fulian), Zhou Qunfei (Lens Technology), and Zhang Xinga (Yuanjie Technology), discussing trends in AI and innovative pharmaceuticals [3][4] - The event attracted significant interest from international investors, including sovereign funds and long-term funds, indicating a strong global interest in high-quality Chinese companies [4][6] Group 2: GF Securities' Strategy - GF Securities is committed to an international development strategy, using Hong Kong as a key hub to deepen its operations and enhance its brand influence in overseas markets [6][7] - The company aims to integrate domestic and international research efforts, providing seamless services to clients and leveraging its strong research capabilities to support cross-border business [7][10] Group 3: Research and Development - As of June 2025, GF Securities' stock research covers 28 industries and 997 A-share listed companies in China, along with 207 overseas listed companies, emphasizing its commitment to digital transformation in research [8][9] - The company is developing an English research product system to enhance its global research brand influence and is focusing on building overseas research teams in key sectors like TMT, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [9][10]

重要全球投资论坛在港举办！11月6日至7日，"智见中国·扬帆未来"广发证券2025年全球投 资论坛在香港举办，论坛汇聚了国内顶尖上市公司领袖与全球知名投资机构，现场参会过千 人。 出海成为新时代的重要方向，也是券商国际化和卖方研究转型需要。作为知名头部券商，实 力卓著的广发证券研究业务，持续加大了海外业务推进力度，与全球顶尖投行同台竞技。 众多海内外知名机构投资者参会 对中国优质企业兴趣浓厚 11月6日至7日，"智见中国·扬帆未来"广发证券2025年全球投资论坛在香港举办，论坛汇聚 了国内顶尖上市公司领袖与全球知名投资机构，现场参会过千人。 据了解，论坛聚焦AI、机器人、新能源、创新药、新消费等赛道，共有约80家知名上市公司 应邀参会。约30位产业链龙头公司掌门人出席会议，与投资者进行深度交流，包括工业富 联、中际旭创、胜宏科技、蓝思科技、东山精密、领益智造、协创数据、万国数据、长春高 新、晶泰控股、晶晨股份、北京君正、大族数控、源杰科技、剑桥科技、峰岹科技、杰华 特、广和通、博瑞医药、聚辰股份、芯碁微装、劲方医药-B、秦淮数据、天辰生物医药、先 通国际医药、捷利交易宝等公司董事长、总经理。 11月6日上午的 ...

东莞证券认为，周四，A股市场全天震荡走强，上证指数重回4000点。A股当前市场风格预计将比三季 度更为均衡，随着"反内卷"等政策见效及内需修复，部分顺周期板块出现边际改善。应重点关注其中受 益于供给侧优化和结构性需求增长的领域，把握其估值修复潜力。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 财信证券认为，周四，A股大盘整体表现较好，市场放量震荡上行，三大指数收盘均在五日均线之上。 具体来看，当日表现靠前的板块仍以低位板块的补涨以及科技方向调整后的反弹为主，而此前表现较好 的红利指数和微盘股指数却迎来调整，反映出当前环境下资金在板块之间高低切换的策略。短期内，在 上证指数放量突破前高之前，指数层面或仍将以震荡为主，但随着连续两个交易日盘面上的题材板块活 跃度提升，可积极把握好A股市场结构性机会。中期来看，在全球科技投资热情不减、"反内卷"政策、 居民储蓄入市等因素支撑下，本轮慢牛行情的根基并未动摇，A股仍存在继续走强的基础。 东吴证券认为，周四，A股市场全天震荡走强，上证指数重返4000点上方。盘面上，磷化工板块走强， 有色板块集体拉升，机器人概念股活跃，CPO等算力硬件股走高；海南板块调整。上证指数4000点虽然 再次失而复 ...