Core Viewpoint - The company plans to raise approximately HKD 6.1 billion through H-share placement and convertible bonds, which will be fully allocated to increase capital for its overseas subsidiaries, aiming to enhance long-term growth potential and international business expansion [2][3]. Group 1: Fundraising Details - The company intends to issue approximately 19.24% of H shares and 4.31% of total share capital, raising around HKD 6.1 billion [2]. - The proposed placement includes 219 million new H shares, representing about 12.87% of the existing H shares and approximately 2.88% of total share capital, with a placement price of HKD 18.15, expected to net HKD 3.959 billion [2]. - Additionally, the company plans to issue HKD 21.5 billion of zero-coupon convertible bonds, maturing on January 12, 2027, with a conversion price of HKD 19.82, potentially converting into approximately 108 million new H shares, which would account for about 6.37% of existing H shares and approximately 1.43% of total share capital [2]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The fundraising will be entirely used to increase capital for overseas subsidiaries, which are crucial for the company's international business growth [3]. - The company did not participate in the previous round of capital replenishment (2019-2022) for A/H refinancing, and this H-share issuance is expected to strengthen its capital position and promote comprehensive business development, particularly in international operations [3]. - Following the capital increase, the net assets of the company's Hong Kong subsidiary are projected to reach approximately HKD 16 billion, positioning it as the fifth largest among Chinese securities firms [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The company maintains a "Buy" rating and raises the target price to HKD 27.71, corresponding to a 1.6x price-to-book ratio for 2025, reflecting an adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [2]. - The industry is experiencing accelerated supply-side reforms, which may serve as a catalyst for growth [4].

本周重要财经事件：（1）1月12日，七国集团(G7)财长会议召开。（2）1月14日，欧佩克公布月度原油 市场报告、EIA公布月度短期能源展望报告。（3）1月15日。美联储公布经济状况褐皮书。 后市市场将如何演绎？且看最新十大券商策略汇总。 上周，A股三大指数集体上涨，截至1月9日站上4100点，录得"16连阳"。沪指周涨3.82%，深证成指周 涨4.40%，创业板指周涨3.89%。 板块上，脑机接口、医疗服务、军工电子等板块领涨。机场航运、银行、海南自贸区板块下跌。 1. 中信证券：继续聚焦资源和传统制造定价权的提升 从当前的量价和风偏指标来看，短期市场热度偏高，但情绪指标还没有转弱迹象，预计主题、小票轮动 的震荡上行格局可能还会延续到两会前后，直至内需预期的上修，市场才会回到基本面驱动状态。不 过，抛开短期的市场躁动，站在全年维度，真正具备持续入场体量的配置型资金今年对权益组合降低波 动的诉求是更高的，需要考虑的是这部分可持续的"大钱"会持续流向的方向。配置上建议资源和传统制 造定价权提升逻辑打底，增配非银金融，兼顾反共识品种降低组合波动。 2. 广发证券：2026年A股估值有望打破历史规律 展望2026年 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong IPO market will not lead to a bear market; instead, increased demand for the Hong Kong dollar may push the currency to its strong-side guarantee, prompting the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to release liquidity in the interbank market, thereby lowering HIBOR rates and boosting the bull market in Hong Kong stocks [1][10] - In 2025, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is expected to have 117 IPOs raising a total of HKD 285.9 billion, regaining the top position globally after four years. The market anticipates that the IPO fundraising scale in 2026 will continue to be strong, potentially exceeding HKD 300 billion [2][6] - The impact of IPO peaks and fundraising peaks on the Hong Kong stock market is not absolute; historically, these peaks have not reversed the market trend, as seen in previous years like 2010, 2014-2015, 2017, 2020, and 2025 [6][10] Group 2 - The true impact of IPOs on the Hong Kong market may be observed during the six-month lock-up period for cornerstone investors post-listing, with notable declines in the market often coinciding with these unlock periods [16] - However, in 2025, the unlocking of shares did not lead to a market downturn, as the ability for cornerstone investors to sell did not equate to a necessity to sell, allowing new buying power from index funds and foreign investments to offset any selling pressure [16] - There may be a new wave of lock-up share unlocks for mid to large-cap companies (market capitalization over HKD 30 billion) in March and September 2026 [6][16] Group 3 - The short-term stock price increase after inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect is not universally applicable, with historical data showing a low probability of price increases across the full sample [23] - For the Hang Seng Tech Index, institutional investors' presence leads to more accurate predictions regarding index adjustments, with stock prices typically reacting about 30 days before the execution date of adjustments [24] - Following the completion of index adjustments, stock prices usually experience a decline, which typically stabilizes within a week [24]

2026 年 01 月 11 日 《公募费率改革收官, 非银板块向上突破 动能充盈——非银金融行业周报 (2025/12/29-2025/12/31)》 2026/01/05 《高弹性标签助力板块"破圈"，看好资负 两端改善趋势 -- 2026 年保险行业策略 报告》 2025/11/18 《证券行业 2026 年投资策略：权益浪潮 下的券商机遇：财富扩容，国际增效》 2025/11/17 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjg@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 万宏源研究微信服务 续看好全年非银板块价值重 非银金融行业周报（2026/1/5-2026/1/9） 本期投资提示: 时代人行业 相关研究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 苏研究招 0 券商：本周申万券商 II 指数收跌 1.90%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.89pc ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the securities industry, highlighting a phase of profit growth, structural evolution, and valuation recovery for 2026 [1] Industry Performance Overview - The overall industry performance is expected to see significant growth in 2025, with a mismatch between valuation and performance [4] - From January to November 2025, the Securities II (Shenwan) index increased by 5.6%, underperforming the CSI 300, while the Hong Kong Chinese securities index rose by 42.7%, outperforming the Hang Seng index by 10.9 percentage points [6] - In the first three quarters of 2025, 42 listed securities firms reported a combined revenue and net profit increase of 43% and 62% year-on-year, respectively, with an annualized ROE increase of 2.5 percentage points to 7.3% [6] Business Review and Outlook - **Brokerage Business**: The brokerage business is expected to benefit from increased trading volumes, with significant revenue growth anticipated in 2025. However, a decline in commission rates may limit profitability in traditional channel businesses [8] - **Proprietary Trading**: The contribution of proprietary trading to industry performance has significantly increased, with differentiation among firms based on investment capabilities and equity positions. Leading firms are expected to see stable returns, while smaller firms may experience higher volatility [9] - **Asset Management**: The asset management sector is entering a recovery phase driven by public fund transformation, with expected revenue growth of 33% year-on-year in 2026 [10] - **Investment Banking**: The investment banking sector is anticipated to enter a recovery cycle in 2026, supported by improved market conditions and policy incentives [10] Investment Themes for 2026 - The securities sector is positioned as a cost-effective investment opportunity due to its low valuation and performance recovery phase. Key factors include a clear trend of asset allocation towards equities, a recovery in multiple business lines, and supportive policies [12] - Recommended focus on leading securities firms with stable ROE, such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and GF Securities, which are expected to achieve ROE of 10.1%, 9.4%, and 9.4% in 2026, respectively [12] - Attention should also be given to firms with distinctive asset management and investment banking capabilities, such as Industrial Securities and China International Capital Corporation, which are well-positioned to benefit from ongoing market trends [12] Policy Environment - The report outlines a clear policy direction for the securities industry, emphasizing a shift from scale expansion to functional positioning and high-quality development. This includes a focus on value competition and the optimization of risk control indicators for leading firms [30][32] - The regulatory framework is evolving to support differentiated capabilities and strategic positioning among firms, with an emphasis on enhancing professional services and internationalization [32][34]

证券日报网讯1月9日，广发证券在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至目前，公司没有应披露而未披 露的信息。 ...

广发证券 发布研报称，乘用车以旧换新政策调整为"定比例补贴"，中高端车将显著受益。参考重庆销 量数据，预计定比例补贴将拉动乘用车行业26年利润提升159亿元，其中10万以下/10-15万/15-20万/20万 以上价格区间的理论利润空间将分别增长0/3/29/128亿元。 综合 考虑，该行预计26年在乘用车以旧换新 补贴总金额退坡约300亿的前提下，15万元以上乘用车享受的补贴金额将增加约140亿元。 根据重庆市商务委员会，重庆自25.8.15日开始将定额补贴调整为定比例补贴。政策调整后25年11月重庆 20万以上乘用车销量占比提升至39.1%，较25年7月增长6.3pct。参考重庆销量数据，不考虑竞争格局和 上游原材料成本的变化，仅考虑定比例补贴对乘用车行业销量结构的影响：(1)保守假设26年国内终端 销量同比持平;(2)假设26年乘用车分价格区间销量占比和重庆25年9-11月数据一致;(3)参考典型车企单车 净利润中枢，假设10万以下/10-15万/15-20万/20万以上价格区间25年和26年的单车净利润一致，分别为 0/0.3/0.7/2.5万元;基于以上假设，该行预计定比例补贴将拉动乘用车行业26年 ...

开源证券研报指出，广发证券配售H股及发行可转债，稀释总股份4%、H股19%，中长期利好国际业 务。本次配售和发行可转债（转换后）一共对H股股份稀释19%，对总股本稀释4%，募资额全部用于向 公司境外子公司增资，以支持国际业务发展。短期对股价尤其是港股有压制，中长期利于海外业务发 展，提升整体ROE。公司旗下基金公司行业地位稳固，受益于牛市后周期基金市场beta，维持"买入"评 级。 ...

华泰证券发表研报指，广发证券日前发布预案，拟通过H股配售并发行零息可转债的方式募集超过60亿 港币，并全部用于向境外子公司增资。若募资成功将有效补强公司资本实力，推动公司深入拓展国际化 业务，经营业绩与行业排名有望更迈上新台阶。公司资管业务优势稳固，再融资补强资本与国际业务实 力。该行将维持对广发证券A股和港股的"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the vehicle trade-in policy to a "proportional subsidy" will significantly benefit mid-to-high-end vehicles, with an expected profit increase of 15.9 billion yuan for the passenger car industry in 2026 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Impacts - The new policy, effective from December 30, 2025, includes a scrapping subsidy of 12% for new energy vehicles and 10% for fuel vehicles, with maximum subsidies of 20,000 yuan and 15,000 yuan respectively [1]. - The trade-in subsidy will provide 8% for new energy vehicles and 6% for fuel vehicles, with maximum subsidies of 15,000 yuan and 13,000 yuan respectively [1]. Group 2: Profit Projections - Based on data from Chongqing, the proportional subsidy is expected to increase the profit of the passenger car industry by 15.9 billion yuan in 2026, with profit growth in different price segments projected as follows: 0 yuan for under 100,000 yuan, 300 million yuan for 100,000-150,000 yuan, 2.9 billion yuan for 150,000-200,000 yuan, and 12.8 billion yuan for above 200,000 yuan [2][3]. - The total amount of trade-in subsidies is projected to decline by approximately 30 billion yuan in 2026, but the subsidy amount for vehicles priced above 150,000 yuan is expected to increase by about 14 billion yuan [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on various companies within the passenger vehicle supply chain, including Geely, BYD, Chery, and others as potential investment opportunities [4]. - Companies positioned for growth include SAIC Motor, while others like Great Wall Motors and Changan Automobile are identified as left-side targets [4].