广发证券发布研报称，港股通高股息全收益指数即将迎来一年中日历效应最强的时候(12月-次年1月中旬)，该阶段获得绝对收益/超额收益的概率大、收益 率高。当前建议关注港股通高股息的配置机会，可能会是一个潜在的岁末年初增加收益的方式。2014年至今，12月-1月中旬，相对于300全收益、中证红 利全收益、恒生指数全收益，胜率均是82%，绝对收益的胜率为91%，并且当前成交额占比仅为6.1%，拥挤度处于历史相对较低位置，可能是再布局机 会。 广发证券主要观点如下： 港股通高股息全收益指数即将迎来一年中日历效应最强的时候(12月-次年1月中旬)，该阶段获得绝对收益/超额收益的概率大、收益率高。 (4)VS恒生指数全收益：超额收益的概率为81.8%，中位数和均值为1.0%和1.6%。跑输是由于20年末、22年末腾讯的超预期上涨。 | 【港股通高股息】上涨/下跌概率最大区间 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 中位数 | 均值 | 2014 | 2015 | 12月-次年1月中旬 | Hotels | | | | | ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 平安基金管理有限公司 关于新增广发证券股份有限公司为平安惠嘉 纯债债券型证券投资基金销售机构的公告 根据平安基金管理有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）与广发证券股份有限公司签署的销售协议，本公司自 2025年12月1日起新增以上机构为以下产品的销售机构。 现将相关事项公告如下： 一、自2025年12月1日起，投资者可通过以上机构办理以下产品的开户、申购、赎回、定投、转换等业 务。 ■ 注:同一产品各份额之间不能相互转换。 二、费率优惠 投资者通过销售机构申购或定期定额申购、转换上述基金，享受费率优惠，优惠活动解释权归销售机构 所有，请投资者咨询销售机构。本公司对其申购费率、定期定额申购费率以及转换业务的申购补差费率 均不设折扣限制，优惠活动的费率折扣由销售机构决定和执行，本公司根据销售机构提供的费率折扣办 理，若销售机构费率优惠活动内容变更，以销售机构的活动公告为准，本公司不再另行公告。 三、重要提示 1、定投业务是基金申购业务的一种方式。投资者可以通过销售机构提交申请，约定每期扣款时间、扣 款金额及扣款方式，由销售机构于每期约定扣款日在投 ...

Group 1 - The number of Hong Kong stock research reports has increased significantly, with a total of 10,859 reports published this year, up 34.8% from 8,057 last year [1] - In-depth reports have also seen substantial growth, with 1,317 reports this year compared to 854 last year, marking a 54.2% increase [1] - The surge in research reports is attributed to the integration and redistribution of industry research capacity, as mainland research institutions optimize their teams and structures to enhance Hong Kong stock research capabilities [1] Group 2 - Major brokerages are expanding their coverage of Hong Kong stock research, with CITIC Securities publishing 827 reports this year, a 75.58% increase, and GF Securities publishing 378 reports, up 31.7% [2] - The shift in research focus from A-shares to Hong Kong stocks is driven by significant inflows of southbound capital, which have altered the investor structure and reshaped research demand [2][3] - The number of reports covering specific Hong Kong companies, such as Pop Mart, has increased dramatically, indicating a growing interest and diverse opinions on their future growth potential [2] Group 3 - Southbound capital has net bought HKD 1.38 trillion in Hong Kong stocks this year, with its trading volume rising from about 25% to nearly 40% of the main board's total trading [3] - The changing investor structure necessitates more refined research that addresses the offshore market characteristics and investment preferences of mainland investors [3] - Analysts emphasize the need for research to provide forward-looking valuation analyses and pricing judgments, especially around company listings [3] Group 4 - The brokerage industry's commission income from stock trading has decreased by 34% to RMB 4.458 billion in the first half of 2025, while the number of analysts has continued to rise [4] - The transformation of the brokerage research model is underway, with Hong Kong stocks seen as a valuable growth area that can support commission income and provide research for IPOs [4] - Many brokerages are expanding dedicated Hong Kong research teams to maximize the value of their research efforts [4] Group 5 - Research institutions are focusing on three main areas to deepen their Hong Kong stock research: industry research, macro perspectives, and cross-market understanding [5][6] - Teams are developing a multi-dimensional analysis system for the Hong Kong market, providing comparative analysis and allocation suggestions across markets and industries [5] - There is an emphasis on enhancing collaboration between domestic and international teams to provide integrated research services for global investors [6]

"春季躁动"的市场表现与当年全年的市场表现，有显著的正相关性，资金仍是布局全年的思路。12月到 1月是春季躁动布局的很好时机，尤其是针对那些年报预告不太会暴雷且明年景气度趋势不错的方向 （年报预告不好的方向，可能最好等到1月末布局）。同时考虑截至上周五市场最低点，很多板块调整 幅度已经达到历史上主线品种的平均水平（20%左右），12月可以逐步纳入观察范围。 格隆汇11月30日｜广发证券发布研报表示，对机构"最不利"的阶段，即将过去。"赚钱效应"最好的时间 窗，即将打开。每年春季有两个重要时间点：春节、两会。在这期间（春节到两会），市场有很好 的"赚钱效应" ，也就是 "春季躁动"窗口期，平均持续约20个交易日。当上市公司盈利向上、且没有明 显事件冲击时，大概率有"春季躁动" ；若同时有流动性配合，则大概率出现强"春季躁动"。展望2026 年：上市公司盈利（边际改善）、内部政策与流动性（正面）、外部因素（中性偏正面） ， "春季躁 动"值得期待。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ ...

打破僵局只能是大超预期的基本面变化，今年是外需和出海，未来可能还是需要内需的重大变化打开市场高 度。在超预期的变化出现前，配置上建议延续资源/传统制造业定价权的重估以及企业出海两个方向。 广发证券："赚钱效应"最好的时间窗，即将打开 每年11月，市场涨跌与基本面相关性最弱，但进入12月，基本面定价的有效性会逐步加强。"赚钱效应"最好的 时间窗，即将打开。每年春季有两个重要时间点：春节、两会。在这期间（春节到两会），市场有很好的"赚 钱效应" ，也就是 "春季躁动"窗口期，平均持续约20个交易日。春节前后，市场从低胜率转向高胜率，从大盘 风格转向小盘风格。 12月到明年1月是春季躁动布局的很好时机，尤其是针对那些年报预告不太会爆雷且明年景气度趋势不错的方 向（年报预告不好的方向，可能最好等到明年1月末布局）。同时考虑截至上周五市场最低点，很多板块调整 幅度已经达到历史上主线品种的平均水平（20%左右），12月可以逐步纳入观察范围。 中信证券：需要内需的变化打开高度 市场呈现出低波慢牛的特征，主要宽基的波动率有所下降，回撤以及夏普比率亦好于过往。但主观多头的体感 改善相对有限，今年以来依旧跑输量化策略，仅略微跑赢 ...

Core Conclusions - The financial industry experienced a weekly increase of +0.68% in the non-bank financial index, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.96 percentage points [1] - The banking sector saw a decline of -0.59%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 2.23 percentage points, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks showing varied performance [1][9] Insurance Sector Insights - The insurance sector's index rose by +0.20%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.44 percentage points, driven by strong demand for dividend insurance products that align with residents' needs for stable returns and value appreciation [2][12] - Major insurance companies are focusing on dividend insurance as a strategic core, with product offerings expanding significantly ahead of the 2026 "opening red" period [2][12] - The growth of new single premiums is expected to be strong in 2026, supported by improved net present value margins (NBVM) and a favorable regulatory environment for dividend insurance [2][17] Brokerage Sector Insights - The brokerage sector index increased by +0.74%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.90 percentage points, with recent developments in refinancing for two brokerages indicating a cautious approach to capital raising [2][18] - The current environment presents a mismatch between profitability and valuation in the brokerage sector, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [2][19] - Recommendations include strong mid-to-large brokerages with low valuations and those involved in mergers or restructuring [2][19] Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector's index decreased by -0.59%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.23 percentage points, with a focus on high dividend strategies remaining viable [3][20] - The average dividend yield for banks is approximately 4.1%, which is attractive compared to other sectors, particularly in the context of a stable earnings outlook [3][21] - Recommendations include state-owned banks and resilient city commercial banks, with specific attention to banks with strong fundamentals and low volatility [3][22]

Core Viewpoint - The most unfavorable phase for institutions is about to pass, with a shift in market dynamics expected as December approaches, leading to a stronger correlation between market movements and fundamentals [1] Group 1: Market Timing and Trends - The period from December to January is identified as an excellent time for positioning in the market, particularly for sectors with favorable annual report forecasts [1] - The "spring market excitement" window, lasting approximately 20 trading days, is anticipated between the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions, characterized by a shift from low to high win rates and a transition from large-cap to small-cap styles [1] Group 2: Market Adjustments - Many sectors have already experienced an average adjustment of around 20%, aligning with historical averages for mainline varieties, suggesting that December is a suitable time to start monitoring these sectors [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, particularly highlighting the potential benefits for brokerage firms and insurance companies in the upcoming year [3][4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the expected inflow of passive funds into newly included stocks in major indices, which could enhance liquidity and market performance for these stocks [4]. - It identifies key trends for 2026, including a shift in insurance companies' focus towards asset-liability matching and the stabilization of core business indicators due to new regulatory standards [4]. - The report recommends specific brokerage firms such as Dongfang Securities, GF Securities, Huatai Securities, and China Galaxy, as well as insurance companies like China Life and Ping An, based on their competitive positioning and growth potential [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,526.66 with a weekly increase of 1.64%, while the non-bank index rose to 1,932.15, reflecting a 0.68% increase [7]. - The brokerage sector index reported a 0.74% increase, and the insurance sector index saw a 0.20% rise [7]. Brokerage Sector Insights - Notable stocks in the brokerage sector included Guosheng Securities and Xinyi Securities, which saw increases of 3.68% and 3.36%, respectively [9]. - The average daily trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 17,370.85 billion, a decrease of 6.87% week-on-week, but a year-to-date increase of 61.11% [20]. Insurance Sector Insights - The insurance sector is expected to experience a systematic revaluation in 2026, driven by long-term interest rate increases and continued investment from insurance funds into the stock market [4]. - The report highlights the performance of major insurance companies, with A-shares like China Life and Ping An showing modest increases [9]. Key Data Points - As of November 28, 2025, the average daily trading volume was 19,147.38 billion, and the margin trading balance was 24,720.45 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.6% [51][20]. - The report notes that the total market value of private equity funds reached 22.05 trillion, marking a historical high [21].

广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发证券资深金工分析师 张钰东 SAC: S0260522070006 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 最近5个交易日，科创50指数涨3.21%，创业板指涨4.54%，大盘价值跌0.21%，大盘成长涨2.63%，上证50涨0.47%，国证2000代表的小盘涨4.50%，通信、 电子表现靠前，石油石化、银行表现靠后。 风险溢价，中证全指静态PE的倒数EP减去十年期国债收益率，权益与债券资产隐含收益率对比，截至2025/11/28指标2.89%，两倍标准差边界为4.73%。 估值水平，截至2025/11/28，中证全指PETTM分位数79%，上证50与沪深300分别为75%、71%，创业板指接近48%，中证500与中证1000分别为60%、 57%，创业板指风格估值相对历史总体处于中位数水平。 使用卷积神经网络对图表化的价量数据与未来价格进行建模，并将学习的特征映射到行业主题板块中。最新配置主题为中药、银行和高股息等，具体包括 中证中药指数、中证银行指数和上 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Views - The insurance sector is preparing actively for the 2026 "opening red" period, with a focus on dividend insurance products, which are expected to outperform traditional insurance due to higher yield rates [6] - The brokerage sector continues to show high profitability, with wealth management, investment banking, and overseas business expected to drive earnings improvement [5][7] - The long-term interest rates are stabilizing at the bottom, which is expected to support the asset side logic and improve the liability cost for insurance companies [6] Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - The insurance companies are gearing up for the 2026 "opening red" with dividend insurance becoming the main product, offering a yield rate significantly higher than traditional insurance [6] - The market share of listed insurance companies is expected to increase due to the expansion of bank insurance channels and the release of "storage demand" [6] - The overall outlook for the liability side is optimistic, with potential improvements in the value rate of dividend insurance supported by rate adjustments and structural optimization [6] Brokerage Sector - The average daily trading volume of stock funds from January to November increased by 77.1% year-on-year, indicating strong market activity [7] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has proposed to include commercial real estate in the public REITs pilot program, which is expected to enhance the market for REITs [7] - Major brokerage firms are expected to see significant ROE expansion under the current growth-oriented strategy, with low valuations presenting strategic allocation opportunities [7] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, China Life Insurance H, Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, and others [8]