Group 1 - Power stocks have rebounded today, with notable increases in share prices for companies such as China General Nuclear Power (up 4.76% to HKD 3.08), Datang International Power Generation (up 3.96% to HKD 2.36), Huaneng International Power (up 3.89% to HKD 5.61), and Longyuan Power (up 3.65% to HKD 8.53) [1] - On September 25, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) held a meeting focusing on stabilizing electricity prices, coal prices, and preventing "involution" competition [1] - Guosen Securities predicts that the downward pressure on electricity prices will ease as the most challenging period is coming to an end, with a comprehensive marketization of green electricity gradually releasing price risks [1] Group 2 - GF Securities notes that while there are significant differences regarding the long-term contract electricity prices for 2025, expectations for stable electricity prices are strengthening [2] - The focus is shifting towards the proportion of long-term contract electricity, with thermal power companies now prioritizing efficiency and revenue per kilowatt-hour rather than merely increasing generation volume [2] - Current dividend yields for Huaneng International and Huadian International are close to 8% in the Hong Kong market, while Sheneng shares and Inner Mongolia Huadian have yields near 6% in the A-share market, enhancing the low volatility dividend attributes under stable electricity prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the successful completion of China's first ship-based green methanol refueling operation at Ningbo Zhoushan Port, marking a significant milestone in the development of green fuel capabilities in the region [3]. Market Review - In September, the CSI 300 Index rose by 3.20%, while the public utility index increased by 0.41% and the environmental index by 0.77%. The relative monthly returns for these indices were -2.80% and -2.43% respectively [2]. - Among the 31 primary industry sectors, public utilities and environmental sectors ranked 13th and 11th in terms of growth. The environmental sector saw a 0.77% increase, while the electricity sector's thermal power rose by 2.34%, and hydropower fell by 3.08% [2]. Important Events - The successful refueling of the "COSCO Shipping Libra" with 230 tons of green methanol at Ningbo Zhoushan Port signifies the port's capability to handle LNG, biofuels, and methanol, enhancing its status as an international hub [3]. - This operation involved collaboration between China Ship Fuel, Zhejiang Port Group, and Ningbo Zhoushan Port Group, utilizing seven specialized methanol transport tankers and explosion-proof refueling equipment [3]. Investment Strategy - Public Utilities: Recommendations include Huadian International for thermal power, Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy for renewable energy, and China Nuclear Power for stable nuclear power operations [4][5]. - Environmental Sector: Focus on companies like China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities, as well as opportunities in the domestic waste oil recycling industry due to upcoming EU SAF policies [5].

Summary of Longyuan Power Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Longyuan Power - **Industry**: Renewable Energy, specifically Wind Power and Photovoltaics Key Points and Arguments 1. **Cyclical Nature of the Renewable Energy Sector**: The renewable energy sector experiences cyclical fluctuations approximately every five years, influenced by policies, technology, and consumption issues. Current negative factors are largely reflected in stock prices, with potential future policy support leading to upward beta effects [2][4][19] 2. **Wind Power vs. Photovoltaics**: Wind power is favored over photovoltaics due to rapid technological advancements and superior resource endowment. Market reforms, such as Document 136, further highlight wind power's competitive advantages, allowing for quicker market adjustments [2][5] 3. **Longyuan Power's Competitive Edge**: Longyuan Power possesses strong resource endowment and technological advantages, maintaining high intrinsic value even without policy support. DCF valuation indicates a high safety margin [2][6] 4. **Impact of Document 136**: Document 136 disrupts the existing government credit system in China's power sector, necessitating a search for new market equilibrium. This may slow investment and development in the short term but aims for a more moderate balance through spot market development in the long term [2][8] 5. **Future Cycles in the Renewable Energy Sector**: The sector may transition to shorter and less volatile cycles, shifting from five-year cycles to two-year cycles, enhancing relative stability despite administrative measures not fully eliminating cycles [2][9] 6. **Investment Value of Longyuan Power**: Longyuan Power's investment value is bolstered by its strong resource endowment, technological advantages, and high internal rates of return (IRR) from projects. The company is expected to see significant market revaluation potential [3][6][14] 7. **Cash Flow and Financial Health**: Longyuan Power generates substantial free cash flow, leading the A-share market despite subsidy delays. A reduction in capital expenditures could significantly improve cash flow conditions [15][16] 8. **Future Market Valuation**: Longyuan Power's market valuation is projected to be re-evaluated between HKD 110 billion to HKD 120 billion, with catalysts including the implementation of Document 136, policy corrections, and accelerated project strategies [18] 9. **Policy Changes and Their Implications**: The quicker the implementation of Document 136, the sooner the industry can recover from negative sentiments, with anticipated strong policy corrections expected in 2026 [19][20] Additional Important Insights - **Historical Context of the Renewable Energy Sector**: The sector has undergone various phases influenced by government policies and market conditions, with significant growth and subsequent downturns due to subsidy issues and consumption challenges [4] - **Longyuan Power's Project Strategy**: The company employs a strategy of leveraging larger projects to enhance installed capacity, which has resulted in high IRR and cash flow levels [3][14] - **Market Dynamics**: The uneven distribution of wind resources leads to a concentration of low-cost suppliers, making companies like Longyuan Power more valuable due to their access to superior resources [11][12] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding Longyuan Power and the renewable energy sector, highlighting the company's strengths, market dynamics, and future outlook.

截至6月30日，龙源电力股东户数4.10万，较上期增加1.18%；人均流通股0股，较上期增加0.00%。2025 年1月-6月，龙源电力实现营业收入156.57亿元，同比减少17.09%；归母净利润33.75亿元，同比减少 11.82%。 分红方面，龙源电力A股上市后累计派现59.78亿元。近三年，累计派现47.46亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，龙源电力十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第五大流 通股东，持股387.38万股，相比上期增加17.41万股。交银国企改革灵活配置混合A（519756）位居第六 大流通股东，持股383.00万股，相比上期增加112.00万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第七大 流通股东，持股269.01万股，相比上期增加3.79万股。易方达沪深300ETF（510310）位居第八大流通股 东，持股193.89万股，相比上期增加19.85万股。华夏沪深300ETF（510330）位居第九大流通股东，持 股141.26万股，相比上期增加23.69万股。嘉实沪深300ETF（159919）位居第十大流通股东，持股 121.81万股，为新进股东。 融资 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that while electricity prices and volumes continued to decline in the third quarter, the significant drop in coal prices is expected to lead to positive performance for thermal power operators in northern and parts of eastern and central China [2][6] - Hydropower performance is anticipated to be limited due to weak electricity generation during the main flood season, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.95% in hydropower generation from July to August [7][35] - Nuclear power generation is expected to grow steadily, but performance may vary by province due to differing impacts from declining electricity prices [7][36] - Clean energy utilization hours have decreased nationally, but regions like Fujian, Shanghai, and Guangdong have shown recovery in wind energy utilization hours, leading to strong performance from certain regional new energy operators [8][43] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - The three core factors affecting thermal power profitability are coal prices, electricity prices, and utilization hours. Despite a general decline in electricity prices across provinces, coal prices have significantly decreased, with the average coal price in Qinhuangdao dropping by 175.63 yuan/ton year-on-year [6][20] - The comprehensive coal price drop is expected to reduce thermal power fuel costs by approximately 0.035 yuan/kWh year-on-year, supporting continued improvement in thermal power operations, especially in northern and eastern provinces [6][32] Hydropower - Hydropower generation faced a year-on-year decline of 9.95% due to high base effects and uneven rainfall distribution. However, improved water inflow in September is expected to alleviate some pressure on hydropower performance [7][35] - Major hydropower companies are expected to manage water reservoir operations effectively to mitigate fluctuations in water inflow [35] Nuclear Power - Nuclear power generation is projected to grow by 7.09% year-on-year, supported by increased installed capacity and stable maintenance schedules. However, market price fluctuations may impact performance differently across operators [36][7] Clean Energy - Wind and solar power generation saw significant year-on-year growth of 11.85% and 22.09%, respectively, but utilization hours have decreased. Regional disparities exist, with eastern coastal provinces showing improved wind energy utilization [8][43] - Despite high growth in installed capacity, the overall performance of new energy operators may face pressure due to rising costs and weak electricity prices, although some regional operators are expected to perform well [8][43] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality thermal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and Guodian Power, as well as major hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation. For new energy, it suggests companies like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power [9][54]

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the renewable energy sector has shifted from mere scale expansion to a deeper contest of technological innovation aimed at overcoming "efficiency bottlenecks" and "technical barriers" [1] Group 1: Innovation Foundation - Longyuan Power has established a comprehensive innovation system during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, utilizing a "1+1+4+N" model to ensure that technological breakthroughs align with industrial needs, transforming them into productive forces [2] - The company has built a national-level research platform and various specialized laboratories to support its innovation efforts, focusing on key technologies in the renewable energy sector [2] - Longyuan Power emphasizes talent cultivation through a dual-driven model of "major projects + talent development," creating a collaborative research team that includes young scientists and academic institutions [2][3] Group 2: Technological Breakthroughs - The "Qingyuan" power generation model, developed by Longyuan Power, represents a significant advancement in wind power operation, transitioning from experience-based to data-driven management [4] - This model integrates industry knowledge with AI technology, enabling predictive maintenance and operational efficiency improvements, as evidenced by its ability to detect anomalies and optimize operational strategies [5] Group 3: Expanding Horizons - Longyuan Power is exploring sustainable development models that integrate renewable energy with ecological protection and digital transformation, exemplified by innovative projects like the "National Energy Sharing" floating offshore wind platform [6] - The company has successfully transformed 28,000 acres of desert into a photovoltaic area, generating approximately 1.8 billion kilowatt-hours annually, while also improving local livelihoods through sustainable agricultural practices [7] - Longyuan Power's digital transformation initiatives, such as the implementation of unmanned operation modes in wind farms, have significantly enhanced operational efficiency by 40% [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The trajectory of Longyuan Power reflects the broader shift in the renewable energy industry from scale expansion to quality enhancement, with a focus on deepening the integration of AI and energy technologies [8]

Core Insights - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utilities and environmental sectors, highlighting the successful completion of China's first ship-based green methanol refueling operation in Zhejiang Province and the anticipated demand for fusion equipment in Q4 [1][2][3] Market Review - In September, the CSI 300 index rose by 3.20%, while the public utilities index increased by 0.41% and the environmental index by 0.77%. The relative performance of public utilities and environmental sectors ranked 13th and 11th among 31 first-level industry classifications [1][13][23] - The environmental sector saw a 0.77% increase, with the power sector's thermal power rising by 2.34%, while hydropower and new energy generation fell by 3.08% and 1.36%, respectively. The water sector increased by 1.27%, and the gas sector rose by 5.65% [1][26][32] Important Events - China Ship Fuel successfully completed the first ship-based green methanol refueling operation in Zhejiang Province, marking a significant milestone for the Ningbo-Zhoushan Port as a hub for LNG, biofuels, and methanol refueling capabilities [2][14] - The BEST fusion energy project achieved a key milestone with the successful installation of its first critical component, the Dewar base, indicating progress in the construction of fusion devices in China [3][15][16] Sector Analysis Public Utilities - Coal and electricity prices are declining simultaneously, allowing thermal power profitability to remain reasonable. Recommendations include major thermal power companies such as Huadian International and Shanghai Electric [4][21] - Continuous government support for renewable energy development is expected to stabilize profitability in the sector, with recommendations for leading companies like Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [4][21] - Nuclear power companies are expected to maintain stable profitability due to growth in installed capacity and generation, with recommendations for China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [4][21] Environmental Sector - The water and waste incineration industries are entering a mature phase, with significant improvements in free cash flow. Recommendations include companies like China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities [22] - The domestic scientific instrument market, valued at over $9 billion, presents substantial opportunities for domestic replacements, with recommendations for companies like Focused Photonics [22] - The EU's SAF blending policy is expected to increase demand for raw materials, benefiting the domestic waste oil recycling industry, with recommendations for companies like Shanggou Environmental Energy [22] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating renewable energy with smart energy management, recommending investments across the renewable energy supply chain and companies involved in comprehensive energy management [21][22]

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Core Insights - The Chinese government is promoting the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) with renewable energy to enhance the quality of energy development, focusing on applications like power prediction and smart operations [1][2]. Group 1: Government Initiatives - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued guidelines to advance "AI + Energy" applications, emphasizing the need for high-precision power forecasting and smart operations in renewable energy [1]. - The government aims to support the stable supply of renewable energy through an integrated model combining weather forecasting, power prediction, smart trading, and intelligent operations [1]. Group 2: Corporate Adoption of AI - Major state-owned energy companies, including State Grid, China Southern Power Grid, and China Energy Group, have begun integrating the DeepSeek AI model into their operations [2][3]. - China Huaneng and China Datang have localized the DeepSeek model to enhance their AI capabilities in various business applications, including financial systems and operational management [3][4][9]. Group 3: Specific Implementations - Longyuan Power has deployed the DeepSeek-R1 model on its digital platform, enabling efficient AI services for its subsidiaries and enhancing decision-making in renewable energy operations [5][6]. - China Huaneng launched the "Smart Little Energy" AI assistant and integrated it with its mobile portal, marking a significant step in its AI application efforts [9]. - China Huadian's "Huadian Ruisi" digital platform has integrated DeepSeek to improve intelligent Q&A and document analysis capabilities [12]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - The DeepSeek-R1 model features multi-modal processing and dynamic attention mechanisms, allowing it to efficiently integrate various data types for enhanced operational support [5]. - China Energy Construction has completed the full integration of DeepSeek models, significantly boosting its digital transformation efforts [17]. Group 5: Future Directions - Longyuan Power plans to deepen the integration of its digital platform with the DeepSeek model across six key business areas, aiming for a comprehensive AI development platform [6]. - China National Nuclear Corporation is set to enhance its AI capabilities by integrating DeepSeek with its existing models, focusing on sustainable development and intelligent upgrades [19][20].

截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 公司名稱: 龍源電力集團股份有限公司（於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） 呈交日期: 2025年10月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00916 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,317,882,000 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 3,317,882,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 3,317,882,000 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | ...