通富微电（002156.SZ）2025 年三季报点评 ➢ 事件：10 月 27 日晚，公司发布 2025 年三季报，2025 年前三季度实现营 业收入 201.16 亿元，同比增速 17.77%；实现归母净利润 8.60 亿元，同比增速 55.74%；实现扣非后归母净利润 7.78 亿元，同比增速 43.69%。 ➢ Q3 业绩持续高增长，盈利能力显著改善。从 2025 年 Q3 单季度来看，收 入为 70.78 亿元，环比增速 1.90%，同比增速 17.94%；归母净利润为 4.48 亿 元，环比增速 44.32%，同比增速 95.08%；毛利率和净利率分别为 16.18%、 7.19%，同比变化分别为 1.54、2.86 个百分点，环比变化分别为 0.07、2.04 个 百分点；销售费用率/管理费用率/研发费用率分别为 0.26%/2.16%/5.20%，同 比变化分别为-0.03/0.01/0.45 个百分点。 ➢ 紧抓下游机遇扩大市场份额。随着手机芯片、汽车芯片国产化进程加快，家 电等国补政策持续利好，公司紧抓机遇，在手机、家电、车载等众多应用领域提 升公司市场份额，在 WiFi、蓝牙、MiniLe ...

Market Performance - The National Big Fund holding concept declined by 2.96%, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors as of the market close on October 31 [1] - Within this sector, notable declines were seen in companies such as Yandong Micro, Shenzhen South Circuit, and Jiangbolong, while six stocks experienced price increases, with Aisen Co., Robot, and Jingjiawei leading with gains of 4.14%, 0.88%, and 0.44% respectively [1] Capital Flow - The National Big Fund holding concept experienced a net outflow of 8.299 billion yuan, with 41 stocks seeing net outflows, and 21 stocks having outflows exceeding 100 million yuan [2] - The stock with the highest net outflow was SMIC, with a net outflow of 1.470 billion yuan, followed by Zhongwei Company, Tuojing Technology, and Huahong Company with net outflows of 646 million yuan, 638 million yuan, and 612 million yuan respectively [2] Top Decliners - The top decliners in the National Big Fund holding concept included: - SMIC: -3.40% with a turnover rate of 3.46% and a net outflow of 1.470 billion yuan [3] - Zhongwei Company: -6.89% with a turnover rate of 3.04% and a net outflow of 646 million yuan [3] - Tuojing Technology: -6.66% with a turnover rate of 4.72% and a net outflow of 638 million yuan [3] Top Gainers - The stocks with the highest net inflows included: - Aisen Co.: 4.14% increase with a net inflow of 589.075 million yuan [4] - Jingjiawei: 0.44% increase with a net inflow of 437.647 million yuan [4] - Saiwei Electronics: -0.53% with a net inflow of 23.2725 million yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - Tongfu Microelectronics is a leading integrated circuit packaging and testing company, achieving significant revenue and profit growth in the semiconductor industry, driven by advanced packaging demands, particularly from AI applications [2][6]. Group 1: Company Overview - Tongfu Microelectronics was established on February 4, 1994, and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on August 16, 2007. The company is headquartered in Nantong, Jiangsu Province, and is recognized for its full industry chain service capabilities in integrated circuit packaging and testing [1]. - The company operates in various sectors, including semiconductor packaging, storage, nuclear fusion, superconductivity, and nuclear power [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Tongfu Microelectronics reported a revenue of 20.116 billion yuan, ranking second among 13 companies in the industry. The top competitor, Changjiang Electronics Technology, achieved a revenue of 28.669 billion yuan, while the industry average was 5.49 billion yuan [2]. - The net profit for the same period was 999.4 million yuan, the highest in the industry, with Changjiang Electronics' net profit at 951 million yuan and the industry average at 250 million yuan [2]. Group 3: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio was 63.04%, an increase from 59.46% year-on-year and above the industry average of 40.98% [3]. - The gross profit margin was reported at 15.26%, up from 14.33% year-on-year but still below the industry average of 20.20% [3]. Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders increased by 27.05% to 350,700, with an average holding of 4,327.16 shares, a decrease of 21.29% [5]. - Among the top ten shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited held 53.7918 million shares, an increase of 28.7179 million shares from the previous period [5]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Huachuang Securities noted that Tongfu Microelectronics achieved record high performance in Q3 2025, driven by the recovery of industry demand and product structure optimization. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for advanced packaging driven by AI [6]. - Dongguan Securities highlighted the company's continuous high growth in operating performance, particularly in mid-to-high-end product revenues, and its strategic partnership with AMD as a core packaging supplier [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Integrated Circuit ETF (159546) opened at 1.930 yuan, experiencing a slight decline of 0.31% on October 31, 2023 [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The performance of the Integrated Circuit ETF (159546) is benchmarked against the CSI All-Share Integrated Circuit Index return [1] - Since its establishment on October 11, 2023, the fund has achieved a return of 93.26%, while the return over the past month has been -3.63% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings - Key stocks within the Integrated Circuit ETF include: - SMIC (中芯国际) down 0.40% - Cambrian (寒武纪) down 0.99% - Haiguang Information (海光信息) down 0.08% - Lattice Technology (澜起科技) down 2.63% - GigaDevice (兆易创新) down 0.43% - Haowei Group (豪威集团) down 0.79% - Chipone (芯原股份) up 0.77% - JCET (长电科技) down 0.72% - Unisoc (紫光国微) down 0.15% - Tongfu Microelectronics (通富微电) down 2.06% [1]

Summary of Tongfu Microelectronics Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tongfu Microelectronics - **Industry**: Semiconductor Packaging and Testing Financial Performance - **Revenue**: 201.6 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.77% [2][3] - **Net Profit**: 7.78 billion CNY, up 43.69% year-on-year [2][3] - **Earnings Per Share**: 0.567 CNY, reflecting a 55.56% increase [2][3] - **Operating Cash Flow**: 54.66 billion CNY, a significant increase of 77.63% year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [2][3] - **Third Quarter Performance**: Revenue reached 70.78 billion CNY and net profit was 4.48 billion CNY, both setting historical highs for the quarter [3] Comparative Performance - **Revenue Growth**: Tongfu Microelectronics' growth of 17.77% outpaced Longji Technology (14.78%) and was comparable to Huada Semiconductor (17.55%) [5] - **Net Profit Comparison**: Tongfu Microelectronics reported 8.60 billion CNY, while Longji Technology reported 9.54 billion CNY and Huada Semiconductor reported 5.43 billion CNY [5] - **Gross Margin**: Tongfu Microelectronics had a gross margin of 15.26%, higher than Longji Technology (13.74%) and Huada Semiconductor (12.34%) [5] Capacity Utilization and Future Outlook - **Capacity Utilization**: Increased from approximately 80% in Q1 to around 90% in Q3 for both main operations and joint ventures [6] - **Fourth Quarter Expectations**: Anticipated to maintain or slightly increase capacity utilization, with overall revenue expected to exceed the initial target of 26.5 billion CNY for the year [6][8] Capital Expenditure - **2025 Capital Expenditure**: 45 billion CNY spent in the first three quarters, with an expected total of 60 billion CNY for the year, primarily for capacity expansion [7] - **Future Revenue Contribution**: Most capital expenditures are expected to contribute to revenue in 2026 [7] Business Segmentation - **Revenue Breakdown**: High-performance computing accounts for 60-70% of total revenue, consumer electronics about 10%, automotive electronics around 5%, and memory and display driver chips each about 5% [4][10] - **Market Trends**: Strong demand in AI and related computing needs, with robust growth in domestic chip replacements and industrial sectors [10] Cost Management and Raw Material Impact - **Cost Control Measures**: Emphasis on refined management and efficiency improvements to manage expenses [11] - **Raw Material Price Stability**: Overall prices remain stable despite fluctuations in raw material costs, with strategies in place to mitigate impacts [12] Strategic Developments - **Ownership Changes**: Control has shifted to state-owned enterprise China Resources, but founders maintain operational control, ensuring continued support for long-term development [18][19] - **Investment in New Technologies**: Focus on power semiconductors and advanced packaging technologies to meet demands in AI data centers and high-performance computing [16] Conclusion - **Long-term Growth Strategy**: The company is positioned for stable growth through strategic investments and operational efficiencies, with a positive outlook for the remainder of 2025 and beyond [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% in the next six months [1][8]. Core Insights - The company, Tongfu Microelectronics (002156.SZ), reported a revenue of 20.116 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.77%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 860 million yuan, up 55.74% year-on-year [2][6]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.078 billion yuan, a 17.94% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 448 million yuan, which is a remarkable 95.08% increase year-on-year [6]. - The company's gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters of 2025 were 15.26% and 4.94%, respectively, both showing improvements compared to the same period last year [6]. - The company is a core packaging and testing supplier for AMD, benefiting from the growth in advanced packaging driven by AI applications. It provides comprehensive services across various sectors, including AI, high-performance computing, and 5G [6][8]. Financial Performance - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability, with Q3 2025 gross margin at 16.18%, up 1.54 percentage points year-on-year, and net margin at 7.19%, up 2.86 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - The report forecasts earnings per share of 0.80 yuan and 0.97 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 55 times and 45 times [8][10]. Capacity Expansion - The company is actively expanding its production capacity with multiple facilities in Jiangsu, Anhui, and Fujian, and has acquired stakes in AMD's facilities in Suzhou and Penang [6][8]. - The strategic acquisition of a 26% stake in Jinglong Technology is expected to enhance investment returns and provide stable financial benefits [8].

Core Viewpoint - Tongfu Microelectronics (002156.SZ) reported strong financial results for Q3 2025, with record revenue and profit, driven by industry recovery and growth in high-end products [1][2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 20.116 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.77%, and a net profit of 860 million yuan, up 55.74% [1] - In Q3 alone, net profit reached 448 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 95.08% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.05% [1] - Q3 revenue was 7.078 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth rate slowing to 1.9% [1] Market Dynamics - The semiconductor packaging and testing industry is entering a stable growth phase, driven by demand from AI, high-performance computing, and 5G communications [2] - Tongfu Microelectronics' growth is attributed to increased revenue from high-end product lines, particularly from major client AMD [2] Operational Efficiency - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 5.466 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.63% [3] - The expense ratio for Q3 was 9.28%, down 0.58 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to a decrease in R&D expense ratio [3] - Investment cash flow showed a significant net outflow of 5.971 billion yuan, primarily due to fixed asset purchases [3] Shareholder Activity - The stock price surged over 56% in Q3, reaching a historical high of 47.99 yuan on October 10 [4] - Foreign investors, particularly through the Stock Connect program, increased their holdings, while domestic funds, including the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, sold shares [4][5] - The divergence in shareholder actions reflects differing views on the company's future performance, especially in Q4 [5] Strategic Partnerships - Tongfu Microelectronics is the largest packaging supplier for AMD, accounting for over 80% of its orders [5] - AMD's strategic partnership with OpenAI, announced on October 6, is expected to influence future orders for Tongfu Microelectronics [5][6] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that Tongfu Microelectronics is well-positioned to secure potential incremental orders due to its capacity and technological readiness [6] - However, competition in the AI chip market is intensifying, particularly with Qualcomm's recent entry [6] - The controlling shareholder, Huada Microelectronics Group, announced a plan to reduce its stake, which may impact market sentiment [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The industry is expected to maintain its prosperity, and the company's profits are entering a recovery phase [5] - The company reported a revenue of 20.116 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.77%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 860 million yuan, up 55.74% year-on-year [7] - The company is benefiting from the rapid development of AI, the continuous transfer of packaging and testing capacity to domestic markets, and the advancement of industrial self-control processes [7] - The company's product structure has been optimized, with significant revenue growth from mid-to-high-end products, and internal management improvements have led to a decrease in expense ratios [7] - The company has a deep partnership with AMD, which is expected to benefit from AMD's AI business expansion [7] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for the company are as follows: 22.269 billion yuan in 2023, 23.882 billion yuan in 2024, 26.925 billion yuan in 2025, 30.969 billion yuan in 2026, and 35.501 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 3.92%, 7.24%, 12.74%, 15.02%, and 14.63% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 169 million yuan in 2023, 678 million yuan in 2024, 1.162 billion yuan in 2025, 1.595 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.025 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of -66.25%, 299.90%, 71.54%, 37.24%, and 26.93% respectively [6] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is expected to be 393.55 in 2023, 98.41 in 2024, 57.37 in 2025, 41.80 in 2026, and 32.93 in 2027 [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [4][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue growth of 18% and a net profit growth of 95% in Q3 2025, with a non-GAAP net profit growth of 59%, leading the industry in performance [4][6]. - As a core packaging and testing manufacturer for AMD, the company is expected to benefit significantly from the growth of its major client, with projected net profits of 1.28 billion RMB, 1.88 billion RMB, and 2.71 billion RMB for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 89%, 47%, and 44% respectively [4][6]. - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 48, 32, and 23 for the years 2025-2027, which supports the "Buy" rating [4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 20.12 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17.8%, and a net profit of 860 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 55.7% [6]. - In Q3 2025 alone, the company achieved revenues of 7.08 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, and a net profit of 450 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 95.1% [6]. - The comprehensive gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 15.3%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points compared to the same period last year [6]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.28 billion RMB, 1.88 billion RMB, and 2.71 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.84 RMB, 1.24 RMB, and 1.79 RMB [5][6]. - The projected P/E ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 47.7, 32.4, and 22.5 respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongfu Microelectronics [6][4] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the ramp-up of mid-to-high-end products, driving revenue growth [1][2] - Strong collaboration with major clients and readiness in high-end capacity are anticipated to lead to increased orders and profit margin growth [1][3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.078 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 17.94% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.90% [1][2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 2025 was 448 million RMB, up 95.08% year-over-year and 44.32% quarter-over-quarter [1][2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached 20.116 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 17.77%, with a net profit of 860 million RMB, up 55.74% year-over-year [1][6] Outlook Summary - The report highlights the potential for increased demand following AMD's significant orders, which could lead to revenue and profit margin growth for the company [3][4] - The company has completed the construction of new production lines and is prepared to meet future potential orders [3][4] Valuation Summary - The target price has been raised to 52.80 RMB, reflecting an adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4][6] - The report projects net profits of 1.342 billion RMB for 2025, with corresponding EPS of 0.88 RMB [4][9]