Summary of Glyphosate and Glyphosate Ammonium Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The glyphosate price has been continuously rising due to multiple factors, currently priced between 24,800 to 25,000 CNY per ton, with some intermediaries quoting as high as 26,000 CNY per ton. It is expected to reach 27,000 CNY per ton by the end of the year and maintain stability at that level [1][8] - Inventory has significantly decreased from over 80,000 tons to over 40,000 tons, further supporting price increases [1] - Domestic glyphosate manufacturers maintain a high operating rate of over 85%, although some have experienced temporary shutdowns or production cuts due to product specification adjustments and environmental factors [1][6] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for glyphosate is steadily increasing, with domestic and international orders robust, and manufacturers' orders extending into late September [1][3] - Bayer's ongoing glyphosate cancer litigation has led to substantial capacity reductions, impacting overseas operating rates and indirectly driving up glyphosate prices [1][9] - Glyphosate ammonium prices are weakening due to differences in target customer groups and relatively low domestic and international production capacity, leading customers to stockpile glyphosate instead [1][10] Production and Capacity - Domestic glyphosate production capacity and output vary among manufacturers, with some experiencing production cuts due to environmental regulations and unmet customer specifications [6][7] - Specific production capacities and outputs include: - Xingfa Group: 250,000 tons capacity, 200,000 tons output - Jiangshan: 80,000 tons capacity, 60,000 tons output - Hebei Chengxin: 60,000 tons capacity, 40,000 tons output - Fuhua Tongda: 160,000 tons capacity, 130,000 tons output [6] Future Price Trends - The current price range for glyphosate suggests potential for further increases, with foreign market prices approximately 28,000 CNY, indicating room for domestic price growth [8] - The rapid promotion of genetically modified crops in China, with an expected growth rate of around 7%, is anticipated to significantly increase glyphosate demand [4][21] Industry Collaboration and Pricing Strategies - Domestic glyphosate companies are interested in collaborative pricing, but differing cost structures and individual interests hinder consensus [4][14] - Leading companies in terms of profit margins include: - Lier: approximately 3,000 CNY per ton - Xingfa: approximately 2,000 CNY per ton - Hebei Chengxin: approximately 1,300 CNY per ton [15] Global Market and Regulatory Impact - The global demand for glyphosate is primarily driven by its use in genetically modified crops, with about 60% of usage in this sector [20] - The impact of Brazil's increased tariffs on glyphosate is limited, as their procurement volume is not substantial [19] Future Outlook - If glyphosate is classified as a carcinogen, glyphosate ammonium could become a primary beneficiary, with many countries increasing its production [26] - The potential for glyphosate ammonium to replace glyphosate is limited by its mechanism of action and crop resistance, but it has advantages in environmental safety [27][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has outperformed the market, with the industry index rising by 1.8% from July 11 to July 18, compared to a 0.7% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [9][20] - The report highlights significant price increases in TDI, glyphosate, and glufosinate due to supply disruptions and rising demand, particularly in South America [6][31][33] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and improved demand due to recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy [17] - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term investment in core assets as the profitability of chemical products has likely bottomed out, suggesting a recovery in valuations [17][18] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index has shown a year-to-date increase of 10.8%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices by 5.4% and 4.5%, respectively [20][26] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 251 stocks rose while 162 fell during the reporting week, with notable gainers including Shangwei New Materials (+148.8%) and Dongcai Technology (+33.2%) [29][30] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - A fire at Covestro's TDI plant in Germany has led to significant supply disruptions, creating opportunities for price increases in TDI [31][32] - Glyphosate prices have increased to 25,500 CNY per ton, reflecting a 7.16% month-over-month rise, driven by reduced inventory levels [33] - New regulations on glufosinate are expected to constrain supply, potentially leading to price increases as the market adjusts [34]

Group 1: Company Performance - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 improved due to increased sales and prices of certain products, as well as cost reduction and efficiency gains [2] - The overall agricultural pesticide industry is showing signs of improvement, with some companies reporting better performance, although competition remains fierce and prices are still low [2] Group 2: Future Strategies - The company plans to enhance performance by completing key projects on time, optimizing existing processes, improving product quality, and reducing production costs [3] - Strengthening strategic customer cooperation and accelerating the registration and development of new products are also key measures [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The company remains optimistic about the future of glyphosate prices, despite current market competition, and aims to steadily expand market share [3] - The market for refined glyphosate is expected to grow as more companies obtain product registrations and improve production technologies [3] Group 4: Project Developments - The 20,000 tons/year enzymatic refined glyphosate project in Jinshi, Hunan, has been put into production and is operating normally [3] - The company is actively constructing production facilities for chlorantraniliprole, with significant market layout efforts already made [3] Group 5: Shareholder Changes - The company is in communication with its controlling shareholder regarding potential changes, which will require a series of operations and government approvals [3] - The second-largest shareholder's reduction in holdings is primarily based on investment return considerations, and updates will be disclosed according to regulations [4]

Group 1 - Glyphosate is the second most used herbicide globally, with significant market demand growth driven by the ban and restriction of paraquat and increasing resistance issues with glyphosate [1] - Glyphosate has a unique herbicidal mechanism that inhibits the synthesis of glutamine in plants, leading to ammonia accumulation and cell metabolism disruption, establishing its important position in the pesticide market [1] - The global market share for glyphosate is projected to reach $499 million in 2024 [1] Group 2 - China is the largest producer of glyphosate, with a total production capacity of 151,000 tons by 2025, including major producers like Inner Mongolia Lingsheng (75,000 tons) and Shandong Yisheng (24,000 tons) [2] - BASF plans to cease glyphosate production at its Knapsack and Frankfurt facilities by the end of 2024 and 2025, respectively [2] - UPL's production capacity is only 8,000 tons [2] Group 3 - As of July 14, 2025, the average market price for glyphosate raw powder is 43,700 yuan per ton, below the industry cost of 56,900 yuan per ton [3] - Current inventory levels in the glyphosate industry have decreased by 8.94% week-on-week and 27.3% from the year's peak [3] - Demand from regions like South America and Southeast Asia is expected to drive price recovery, with some companies already scheduling orders into late August [3]

Group 1 - The recent Central Financial Committee meeting focused on the construction of a national unified market and the high-quality development of the marine economy, leading to strong performance in related sectors [1] - From July 1 to July 10, the photovoltaic index rose by 3.97%, the green power index increased by 4.08%, and the marine economy index peaked at 7.99%, all outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index during the same period [1] - The chemical industry, as a fundamental sector of the national economy, is expected to benefit from national strategic planning [1] Group 2 - The meeting emphasized the governance of "involution-style" competition and the orderly exit of backward production capacity, initiating a new round of capacity reduction [1] - On July 2, multiple contracts for polysilicon futures hit the limit, with the main contract closing at 35,050 yuan/ton, reaching a recent high; silicon material prices also rebounded, with the average transaction price for N-type re-investment material at 34,700 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.87% [1] - CITIC Futures analysis indicated that this round of price increase is a correction of previous overselling, as prices had fallen below the cash costs of leading enterprises, driving profit recovery expectations [1] Group 3 - The marine economy is projected to surpass 10 trillion yuan in national marine production value in 2024, accounting for 7.8% of GDP, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7% in the first quarter of this year [1] - The deep-sea technology sector is expected to have broad prospects, with predictions that marine production value will exceed 13 trillion yuan by 2025, and deep-sea technology industries will account for over 25% [1] - Various regions are actively planning, with cities like Qingdao, Hainan, and Xiamen focusing on marine technology innovation and deep-sea equipment, while Tianfeng Securities suggests paying attention to opportunities in deep-sea materials, equipment, and intelligent applications [1] Group 4 - Starting in 2024, China will implement a quota system for HFCs, controlling over 80% of the global quota, creating a unique business model [2] - Benefiting from favorable factors related to refrigerant quotas, companies in the refrigerant sector, including Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., Yonghe Co., Ltd., and Dongyangguang, are all expected to report significant increases in their mid-year results, with four companies seeing growth exceeding 120% [2] - The pesticide industry is benefiting from the "one certificate, one product" policy, with companies like Jiangshan Co., Ltd. and Lier Chemical also expected to report increased mid-year results, indicating a shift towards scale and intensive transformation in the industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - Lier Chemical is expected to significantly increase its profitability in the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit of 265 million to 275 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 185.24% to 196.00% due to rising prices and sales of its core product, glyphosate, alongside cost optimization efforts [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2023, Lier Chemical's revenue was 7.851 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.55% year-on-year, and the net profit was 604 million yuan, down 66.68% [2]. - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 7.311 billion yuan, a decline of 6.88% year-on-year, with a net profit of 215 million yuan, a drop of 64.34% [2]. - The company anticipates a strong recovery in 2025, with a significant increase in net profit driven by improved market conditions and strategic initiatives [2][3]. Group 2: Product and Market Dynamics - The price of glyphosate remains low, but the price of Lier Chemical's other core product, glufosinate, has rebounded from 23,500 yuan per ton in April 2025 to 25,500 yuan per ton by July 7, 2025, marking an increase of 8.5% [3]. - The company has expanded its market share in key regions such as Brazil and Argentina through a dual strategy of targeting large clients and overseas registrations [3]. - Domestic demand for glufosinate is rapidly increasing due to the promotion of genetically modified crops, supporting the company's production capacity growth [3]. Group 3: Capacity Expansion and Strategic Initiatives - Lier Chemical has established seven production bases in China, enhancing its competitive edge and ensuring a stable global supply chain [1][4]. - The company holds over 50% market share in glufosinate domestically and approximately 30% globally, benefiting from economies of scale [4]. - As of 2024, Lier Chemical's production capacities include 86,300 tons for active ingredients, 81,200 tons for formulations, and 123,500 tons for chemical products, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 43.4%, 36.2%, and 50.6% [4]. - The company is also pursuing acquisitions to further expand its industry chain, including a proposed acquisition of Shandong Huimeng Biotechnology Co., Ltd. [5].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, with the latest figures showing a rise of 70,000 ounces to a total of 73.9 million ounces as of the end of June [2] - By the end of 2027, China aims to have over 100,000 high-power charging facilities nationwide, focusing on local economic development and the promotion of new energy vehicles [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange and the China Securities Index Company will launch several specialized indices on July 21, including the Shanghai Stock Exchange Specialized New Index and the China Securities Specialized New 100 Index [3] Group 2 - A new mandatory national standard for passenger car braking systems will take effect on January 1, 2026, introducing requirements for electric transmission braking systems and emergency braking signals [3] - An international standard for testing scenarios of autonomous vehicle systems has been officially released, detailing evaluation processes and testing methods [4] - The U.S. President has signed an executive order extending the delay for "reciprocal tariffs" until August 1, affecting imports from 14 countries with varying tariff rates [8][5] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market saw declines across major indices, with the Dow Jones down 0.94%, the Nasdaq down 0.92%, and the S&P 500 down 0.79%, impacting stocks of Japanese and Korean companies listed in the U.S. [5] - Companies such as Nissan and Toyota experienced significant stock drops, with Nissan down over 7% and Toyota down nearly 4% [5] - The market sentiment is shifting towards a balanced approach, with a focus on large-cap stocks and potential inflows of incremental capital in July [8][9]

Market Overview - US stock markets experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.94%, Nasdaq down 0.92%, and S&P 500 down 0.79%. Notable declines included Tesla at 6.79%, Apple at 1.69%, and Google A at 1.53%, while Amazon saw a slight increase of 0.03% [1] International Trade and Policy - The first wave of tax letters from Trump will affect 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, with tax rates ranging from 25% to 40%, effective from August 1. The EU is reportedly close to reaching an agreement [2] - An EU spokesperson indicated that negotiations for a US-EU trade agreement have made progress, with a principle agreement expected [3] Company Developments - OpenAI is incurring high costs for talent retention, with equity compensation accounting for 119% of its revenue. Meanwhile, Meta is actively recruiting talent, with a senior AI executive from Apple set to join [4] - Samsung Electronics is expected to see a 39% decline in operating profit for Q2 due to weak AI chip sales [5] - Figure's CEO stated that humanoid robots are key to AGI and plans to deploy 100,000 units within four years [6] - Colin Murdoch, Chief Business Officer of Google DeepMind, announced that Isomorphic Labs, which designs drugs using AI, is preparing for its first human trials [7] Economic Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has revised its expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, now anticipating a potential cut in September, with a terminal rate of 3% to 3.25% [8] Domestic Industry Highlights DRAM Industry - Changxin Storage, a major domestic DRAM manufacturer, has initiated its IPO counseling, with a registered capital of 601.9 billion yuan and a valuation of 140 billion yuan. The success of Changxin and Yangtze Memory is expected to significantly impact the domestic semiconductor industry [11] Photovoltaic Industry - Major polysilicon manufacturers have raised prices for certain orders to 37 yuan per kilogram due to recent policy changes and industry self-discipline. The overall production of polysilicon is projected to increase, albeit at a limited rate [12] Petrochemical Industry - The price of butanone has risen by 4.54% to 8,267 yuan per ton, with a month-on-month increase of 28.51%. Supply disruptions due to maintenance at major production facilities are contributing to price increases [13] Automotive Components - A new mandatory national standard for passenger car brake systems will take effect on January 1, 2026, introducing new requirements for electric transmission brake systems and single-pedal braking [15] Company Earnings Forecasts - Industrial Fulian expects a net profit of 6.727 billion to 6.927 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.72% to 52.11%, driven by growth in cloud computing [16] - Rockchip anticipates a net profit of 520 million to 540 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 185% to 195%, supported by AIoT product demand [17] - Loxin Technology projects a net profit of 250 million to 270 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65% to 78% [17] - China Power expects a net profit of 800 million to 1.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.28% to 141.90% [17]

Core Viewpoint - Several listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have announced significant developments, including management changes, stock trading fluctuations, and major contracts, which may present investment opportunities and risks for investors [2]. Group 1: Management Changes and Legal Issues - Scanda's chairman and general manager, Li Yuejie, along with director Zhu Chuncheng, have been subjected to criminal coercive measures due to alleged violations related to information disclosure [3]. - Longhong High-Tech is planning to acquire 100% equity of Guangxi Changke, leading to a stock suspension for up to 10 trading days [6]. Group 2: Stock Trading and Performance - New Asia Electronics reported abnormal stock trading with a cumulative price deviation exceeding 20% over three days, while confirming that its operations are normal and consistent with previously disclosed share reduction plans [5]. - ST Tiexin announced the removal of risk warnings and a name change, which will increase the trading limit from 5% to 10% [8]. Group 3: Financial Performance Forecasts - Industrial Fulian expects a net profit increase of 36.84% to 39.12% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, driven by a surge in AI-related business [18]. - Huayou Cobalt anticipates a net profit increase of 55.62% to 67.59% for the same period, benefiting from integrated operations and rising cobalt prices [19]. - Guoli Co. forecasts a staggering net profit increase of 130.91% to 158.08% for the first half of 2025, attributed to new product and market expansions [20]. - Bangji Technology expects a net profit increase of 166.77% to 200.91%, driven by increased sales from direct sales channels [21]. - Lier Chemical predicts a net profit increase of 185.24% to 196% due to rising product sales and cost reduction efforts [25]. Group 4: Major Contracts and Projects - Huadian Science and Technology signed significant contracts worth approximately RMB 25.16 billion for coal handling and transportation systems [41]. - Aerospace Engineering is the first candidate for a project with a bid of RMB 23.92 billion for a coal gasification facility [43].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][16] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant year-on-year profit growth of 185.24% to 196.00% for the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit of 265 million to 275 million yuan [1][9] - The price of glyphosate is anticipated to rebound after a prolonged decline, with the current market conditions indicating a potential bottoming out [3][15] - The company has deepened cooperation with major clients, resulting in stable sales despite a significant drop in product prices [2][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects a net profit of 2.65 billion to 2.75 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 185.24% to 196.00% [1][9] - The second quarter is projected to yield a net profit of 1.12 billion to 1.22 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 148.89% to 171.11% compared to the previous year [1][9] Product Pricing and Sales - The prices of chlorinated pyridine herbicides have increased, and sales volumes have improved, particularly for products like toxic herbicides [2][10] - The company has registered its glyphosate formulations in eight countries, indicating a low penetration rate in overseas markets and significant growth potential [2][10] Market Conditions - Glyphosate prices have been in decline since 2022, with a current average price of 43,700 yuan per ton, down 88.19% from the end of 2021 [3][11] - The industry is experiencing a seasonal peak in demand for glyphosate exports to South America, with production reaching historical highs [12][11] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 4.02 billion, 5.19 billion, and 6.43 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][16] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.50, 0.65, and 0.80 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23.4, 18.1, and 14.6 [4][16]