Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The USDA supply and demand report indicates that new crop inventories for soybeans and corn are lower than expected, which is favorable for prices [4][6] - Global corn production for the 2024/25 season is estimated at 1.221 billion tons, with significant increases in production from the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina [1][12] - The soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season is 410 million tons, with Brazil expected to reach a record 175 million tons [2][3][18] - The global wheat production forecast for 2025/26 is 667 million tons, reflecting a 1.0% year-on-year increase, with the EU showing significant growth [4][28] Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report estimates a global corn production of 1.221 billion tons for 2024/25, with U.S. production increasing by 24.22 million tons due to expanded planting [1][12] - The projected global corn ending stocks for 2025/26 are 95.68 million tons, a 7.4% increase year-on-year, with a low stocks-to-use ratio of 10% [1][12] Soybeans - The global soybean production for 2024/25 is estimated at 421 million tons, with U.S. ending stocks significantly reduced to 295 million bushels [2][3][18] - The forecast for global soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 is 80.47 million tons, a 1.6% increase year-on-year, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 27.6% [3][19] Wheat - The global wheat production for 2025/26 is projected at 667 million tons, with the EU's production expected to increase by 11.4% to 136 million tons [4][28] - The global wheat ending stocks for 2025/26 are estimated at 14.2 million tons, reflecting a 2.5% year-on-year increase, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 21.6% [5][28] Investment Recommendations - In light of increasing global weather extremes and geopolitical tensions affecting grain prices, the report emphasizes the importance of seed source control for national food security [6][36] - Recommended companies include leading seed firms with transgenic advantages such as Longping High-Tech, Dabeinong, and Qianyuan High-Tech, along with suggestions to monitor Kangnong Seed Industry, Denghai Seed Industry, and Fengle Seed Industry [6][36]

Core Viewpoint - The livestock farming index in China has shown a slight decline, with specific stocks experiencing mixed performance, while external factors such as foot-and-mouth disease in South Africa are impacting the industry [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 13, 2025, the China Livestock Farming Index (930707) decreased by 0.38%, with stocks like Luyouli (300381) and Jinxinnong (002548) showing gains of 1.07% and 1.05% respectively, while Ruipubio (300119) led the decline with a drop of 2.66% [1]. - The Livestock ETF (516760) fell by 0.80%, with a latest price of 0.62 yuan, but it ranked first in weekly performance among comparable funds as of May 12, 2025 [1]. - The Livestock ETF had a turnover rate of 1.07% during the trading session, with a total transaction value of 1.4475 million yuan, and an average daily transaction of 4.6547 million yuan over the past year [3]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The South African Department of Agriculture confirmed the spread of foot-and-mouth disease to provinces like KwaZulu-Natal, prompting China's Ministry of Agriculture to urge livestock farmers to restrict animal transport and implement a 28-day quarantine for new animals [1]. - Everbright Securities identified three main investment themes: (1) Planting: Rising prices of staple crops like corn and wheat are expected to benefit major planting companies; (2) Seeds: Improved demand in the seed industry due to favorable planting conditions; (3) Agricultural Chemicals: Improved planting profits are likely to reduce agricultural input cost pressures, expanding the agricultural chemicals market [1]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The Livestock ETF closely tracks the China Livestock Farming Index, which includes companies involved in animal feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming, reflecting the overall performance of related listed companies [3]. - As of May 12, 2025, the Livestock Farming Index's price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) was 12.26, indicating it is at a historical low, being below 99.43% of the time over the past year [3]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the Livestock Farming Index accounted for 69.38% of the index, with Hai Da Group (002311) having the highest weight at 11.24% [3][5].

Core Viewpoint - The CSI Modern Agriculture Theme Index has shown a mixed performance, with a recent decline despite a year-to-date increase, indicating volatility in the agricultural sector [1][2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The CSI Modern Agriculture Theme Index (CS Modern Agriculture, 930662) fell by 0.4% to 997.35 points, with a trading volume of 7.519 billion [1]. - Over the past month, the index has decreased by 5.59%, while it has increased by 5.31% over the last three months and by 1.82% year-to-date [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The index comprises 30 listed companies involved in various agricultural sectors, including agricultural products, seed industry, feed, animal health and breeding, livestock products, fishery products, and agricultural machinery [1]. - The top ten holdings in the index are: Muyuan Foods (14.98%), Wens Foodstuff Group (14.78%), Haida Group (12.99%), New Hope Liuhe (6.27%), Meihua Holdings (6.23%), Dabeinong Technology Group (4.08%), Longping High-Tech (3.1%), Beidahuang (3.08%), Shennong Development (2.79%), and Hainan Rubber (2.29%) [1]. Group 3: Market Segmentation - The index's holdings are primarily listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (74.03%) and the Shanghai Stock Exchange (25.97%) [1]. - In terms of industry composition, livestock products account for 39.61%, feed for 37.86%, agricultural products for 8.40%, seed industry for 7.29%, animal health and breeding for 5.99%, and agricultural machinery for 0.84% [2]. Group 4: Index Adjustment Mechanism - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2]. - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [2].

Group 1 - The grain concept sector declined by 0.60%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with notable declines in stocks such as Kemin Foods, Shennong Seed Industry, and Quanyin High-Tech [1] - Among the grain concept stocks, 11 stocks experienced price increases, with *ST Huifeng, *ST Wanfang, and ST Yalian leading the gains at 2.80%, 2.73%, and 2.45% respectively [1] Group 2 - The grain concept sector saw a net outflow of 555 million yuan from main funds today, with 33 stocks experiencing net outflows, and 7 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 30 million yuan [2] - The stock with the highest net outflow was Dabeinong, with a net outflow of 55.14 million yuan, followed by Jinhai Biological, Beidahuang, and Lianhua Holdings with net outflows of 44.98 million yuan, 41.51 million yuan, and 37.18 million yuan respectively [2] - The stocks with the highest net inflows included ST Yalian, Tianhong Shares, and Luoping Zinc Electric, with net inflows of 0.66 million yuan, 0.48 million yuan, and 0.45 million yuan respectively [2]

截至5月12日收盘，转基因概念下跌0.77%，位居概念板块跌幅榜前列，板块内，神农种业、荃银高 科、敦煌种业等跌幅居前，股价上涨的有4只，涨幅居前的有芭田股份、新安股份、科前生物等，分别 上涨3.20%、1.95%、1.83%。 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中船系 | 6.55 | 重组蛋白 | -0.94 | | 成飞概念 | 5.77 | 代糖概念 | -0.82 | | 军工信息化 | 4.28 | 转基因 | -0.77 | | 同花顺果指数 | 4.17 | 创新药 | -0.60 | | 国产航母 | 3.73 | 粮食概念 | -0.60 | | 军民融合 | 3.69 | 玉米 | -0.59 | | 航空发动机 | 3.42 | 大豆 | -0.45 | | 人形机器人 | 3.20 | 农业种植 | -0.31 | | 减速器 | 3.20 | 生物质能发电 | -0.28 | | 军工 | 3.15 | 减肥药 | -0.24 | 资金面上看，今日转基因概念板块获主力 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [12] Core Views - The pet sector continues to show high prosperity, driven by domestic substitution and consumption upgrades, leading to a dual increase in volume and price [1][2] - The industry is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "value creation," with leading companies shifting from "manufacturing" to "intelligent manufacturing" through formula innovation and precise demand capture [2][17] - The domestic pet food market remains strong, with a significant increase in sales and exports, indicating robust growth potential for domestic brands [2][17] Summary by Sections Pet Sector - The fifth TOPS Pet Expo in Shanghai showcased over 1,200 exhibitors and 8,000+ brands, reflecting strong growth momentum in the pet industry, with a 43% year-on-year increase in attendance [1][16] - Trends in pet food are shifting towards precision nutrition, with a focus on age-specific feeding and high-end production techniques [1][16] - Key recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., Petty Co., and Lusi Co., with additional recommendations for pet medical and product companies [2][17] Swine Sector - As of May 10, the average price of live pigs was 14.90 yuan/kg, showing a slight decline, with production capacity continuing to grow [3][18] - The industry is facing a potential downturn in profitability due to weak demand and seasonal price declines [3][19] - Recommended companies include leading players such as Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods, with a focus on core assets [19] Poultry Sector - The white chicken segment is facing uncertainties in breeding imports, with a significant decline in the number of breeding stock updated [20][21] - The yellow chicken segment is expected to benefit from improved consumer demand, with stable prices observed [23] - Recommended companies include Shengnong Development and Lihua Co. for white chicken, and Wens Foodstuffs for yellow chicken [22][23] Planting Sector - The government emphasizes agricultural technology innovation and self-sufficiency in food security, with a focus on biological breeding [25][26] - Recommended companies in the seed sector include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong, with additional focus on agricultural water-saving technologies [25][26] Feed and Animal Health Sector - Hai Da Group is highlighted for its market share growth and consistent performance in the feed sector [27] - The animal health sector is seeing new opportunities in pet health products, with recommended companies including KQ Bio and Zhongmu Co. [28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Short-term consumption weakness has led to a slight decline in pig prices, but high prices for piglets and sows indicate optimistic expectations for the future [4][6] - The pig farming sector shows low valuation opportunities, while the pet sector continues to strengthen the logic of domestic brand rise [7][25] - The overall agricultural index underperformed the market by 0.93 percentage points during the week [29] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - After the May Day holiday, consumer support was insufficient, leading to a slight decline in national pig prices. As of May 9, the average selling price of live pigs was 14.79 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg week-on-week, a decrease of 0.14% [4][15] - The average daily slaughter volume of sample enterprises was 148,800 pigs, a decrease of 780 pigs from the previous week [4][15] Weekly Viewpoint - The pig sector shows low valuation opportunities, with the supply side not yet recovering to the levels of the same period in 2023. The demand side is supported by macro policies driving consumption recovery [25] - Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Juxing Agriculture, Huadong Food, and Tiankang Biological [7][25] Market Performance (May 5-9) - The agricultural index rose by 0.99%, underperforming the market by 0.93 percentage points, with the fishery sector leading the gains [29][32] - Notable stock performances included *ST Jiawo (+13.47%), Guotou Zhonglu (+12.05%), and Xuelong Biological (+11.04%) [29][35] Price Tracking (May 5-9) - As of May 9, the national average price for live pigs was 14.82 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price for piglets was 36.87 yuan/kg, also down 0.01 yuan/kg [41] - The average profit for self-bred pigs was 84.33 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.72 yuan/head week-on-week [41] Key News (May 5-9) - Seven departments jointly issued an implementation opinion to enhance the overall effectiveness of the agricultural science and technology innovation system [36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the announcement is the sales performance of the company's pig farming operations in April 2025, highlighting both monthly and cumulative sales figures [1] - In April 2025, the total pig sales amounted to 601,100 heads, with cumulative sales from January to April reaching 2,441,000 heads [1] - The sales revenue for April was 4.056 billion yuan, while the cumulative revenue for the first four months was 10.09 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The average selling price of fattened pigs in April was 14.64 yuan per kilogram [1] - The sales volume showed a month-on-month decrease of 12.20% but a year-on-year increase of 4.39%, while sales revenue decreased by 14.98% month-on-month but increased by 27.94% year-on-year [1] - The company reported that the sales volume for its controlling and participating companies increased by 34.89% year-on-year, with sales revenue up by 42.34% year-on-year [1] Group 3 - The data presented includes all pig sales from the company's breeding platforms and does not account for other business operations [1] - The figures are preliminary and unaudited, indicating potential discrepancies with periodic report disclosures [1] - The announcement emphasizes that the sales situation only reflects the performance of the pig farming segment and does not include other business sectors [1]

证券代码：002385 证券简称：大北农 公告编号：2025-048 北京大北农科技集团股份有限公司 2025年4月份生猪销售情况简报 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、2025年4月份生猪销售情况 公司控股及参股公司生猪销售数量当月合计为 60.11 万头，1-4 月累计为 244.10 万 头；销售收入当月合计为 10.09 亿元，1-4 月累计为 40.56 亿元；公司控股及参股公司商 品肥猪当月均价为 14.64元/公斤。公司控股及参股公司销售情况如下： 1、2025 年 4 月控股公司生猪销售数量为 33.55 万头，销售收入 5.22 亿元。其中销 售数量环比增长-12.20%，同比增长 4.39%；销售收入环比增长-14.98%，同比增长 5.03%；商品肥猪出栏均重 124.30公斤，销售均价 14.58元/公斤。 2025 年 1-4 月，控股公司累计销售生猪 138.35 万头，同比增长 16.66%。累计销售 收入 22.07亿元，同比增长 27.94%。 2、2025 年 4 月参股公司生猪销售数量为 26.56 万头 ...

证券代码：002385 证券简称：大北农 公告编号：2025-049 北京大北农科技集团股份有限公司 公司及控股子公司担保进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 北京大北农科技集团股份有限公司及控股子公司对外担保总额超过最近一 期经审计净资产的 100%，担保金额超过公司最近一期经审计净资产的 50%，本 次公司及控股子公司担保进展中涉及对资产负债率超过 70%的被担保对象"北京 右信供应链管理有限公司、北京易富农商贸发展有限公司、南宁大北农饲料科技 有限责任公司、内蒙古华牧兴农种猪科技有限公司、北京大北农贸易有限责任公 司、漳州大北农农牧科技有限公司、北京科高大北农生物科技有限公司、广州易 富农商贸发展有限公司、安徽省大北农农牧科技有限公司、盐城大北农饲料有限 公司、四川大北农农牧科技有限责任公司、福建大北农华有水产科技集团有限公 司、吉林大北农农牧科技有限责任公司、南皮大北农农牧食品有限公司、江西大 北农科技有限责任公司、海南大北农生物科技有限公司、江西高安大北农饲料有 限公司、辽宁盛得大北农牧业科技有限公司、安徽长风农牧科技 ...