Core Insights - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the agricultural sector, particularly highlighting the resilience and growth potential in the pet food market and the cyclical recovery in the pig farming industry [1] Group 1: Pet Industry Performance - The pet food sales during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival reached 9.4 billion yuan, showcasing significant growth in the pet sector [11][12] - Major brands like Mai Fudi and Frigat led sales on platforms such as JD and Tmall, indicating strong competitive advantages [11][12] - The trend towards high-end and refined pet products is evident, with new processing techniques gaining market share [11][12][16] Group 2: Pig Farming Market Dynamics - As of November 14, 2025, the average price of pigs was 11.66 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.22 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decline of 4.79% [4][15] - The supply side is expected to contract due to overproduction in October and a reduction in breeding stock, while demand may increase due to seasonal consumption patterns [4][15] - The report suggests that the pig farming sector may enter a favorable investment phase as losses accelerate and market conditions stabilize [5][26] Group 3: Market Performance Overview - From November 10 to November 14, the agricultural index outperformed the broader market by 2.87 percentage points, with a 2.70% increase in the agricultural index compared to a 0.18% decline in the Shanghai Composite Index [28][29] - Key stocks such as Yuegui Co. and ST Jiawo saw significant gains, indicating strong performance within the agricultural sector [28][33] Group 4: Feed Industry Insights - The domestic feed market is benefiting from the recovery in livestock numbers and strong overseas demand, with a projected increase in feed production [26] - The report highlights the growth in feed production from 162 million tons in 2010 to 315 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.86% [26]

Core Insights - The feed sector experienced a decline of 0.24% on November 14, with Zhongchong Co., Ltd. leading the losses [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3990.49, down 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13216.03, down 1.93% [1] Market Performance - Tianma Technology (603668) saw a price increase of 3.29%, closing at 14.44, with a trading volume of 446,400 shares and a turnover of 642 million yuan [1] - Other notable gainers included Kesi Thought (001313) with a 3.16% increase and Baiyang Co., Ltd. (002696) with a 0.84% increase [1] - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891) led the declines with a drop of 2.53%, closing at 57.47, with a trading volume of 33,300 shares and a turnover of 193 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The feed sector experienced a net outflow of 80.91 million yuan from institutional investors and 50.57 million yuan from retail investors, while individual investors saw a net inflow of 131 million yuan [2] - Tianma Technology had a net inflow of 32.96 million yuan from institutional investors, while Hai Da Group (002311) had a net inflow of 15.96 million yuan [3] - Conversely, companies like Boen Group (001366) and Hefa Co., Ltd. (603609) experienced significant net outflows from institutional and retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The feed sector experienced a decline of 0.46% on November 13, with Guai Bao Pet Food leading the drop, while the overall market indices showed positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.73% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.78% [1][2]. Summary by Category Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4029.5, up 0.73% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13476.52, up 1.78% [1]. Feed Sector Performance - The feed sector's decline was led by Guai Bao Pet Food, which fell by 5.00% to a closing price of 72.25 - Other notable declines included Jin Xin Nong (-1.58%), Hai Da Group (-0.84%), and Lu Si Co. (-0.53%) [2]. Individual Stock Movements - Key gainers in the feed sector included Ke Li Feed, which rose by 6.87% to 8.24, and other stocks like Lu De Environment and Pei Ti Co. also saw slight increases [1]. - The trading volume and turnover for Ke Li Feed were 313,600 shares and 253 million yuan, respectively [1]. Capital Flow - The feed sector saw a net outflow of 49.1 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 2.4 million yuan [2]. - Guai Bao Pet Food had a significant net outflow from retail investors amounting to 54.45 million yuan, despite a net inflow of 36.34 million yuan from speculative funds [3].

Group 1 - The China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) increased by 0.43% as of November 13, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Bio-Stock (600201) up 8.27%, Huaying Agriculture (002321) up 4.82%, and others [1] - The price difference between standard pigs and fat pigs is currently larger than the same period last year, with a standard fat price difference of -0.68 yuan/kg as of November 7, indicating potential seasonal benefits for fat pigs as temperatures drop [1] - The weekly slaughter volume in the downstream market has shown a slight recovery of 0.27% compared to the previous week, suggesting a stabilization in demand [1] Group 2 - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index accounted for 65.58% of the index, including companies like Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) [2] - The index tracks companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the livestock breeding sector [2]

Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is experiencing a favorable configuration opportunity due to accelerated breeding stock reduction driven by market and policy resonance, with current prices at a relatively low level [18][43]. - The beef industry is in a cyclical uptrend, with demand increasing and supply constraints expected to continue until 2027, making it a favorable time to invest in beef-related companies [18][51]. - The poultry sector is seeing improved investment logic as it enters a demand peak season, despite challenges from disease outbreaks and production capacity reductions [19][4]. Pig Farming - The supply pressure in pig farming is gradually increasing, leading to continued downward pressure on prices, with the national average price at 11.87 yuan/kg as of November 11, 2025, down 4.85 yuan/kg year-on-year [20][23]. - Policy measures are focused on reducing breeding stock, particularly among large enterprises, while smaller farms are expected to reduce stock due to losses and disease impacts [29][41]. - The current market conditions suggest a significant opportunity for investment in the pig farming sector, with recommended companies including Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [18][43]. Beef Industry - The beef supply is tightening, with a decrease in stock levels and an expected cyclical uptrend in demand, particularly as domestic beef consumption continues to rise [46][51]. - The average beef price in September 2025 was 70.52 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.36% [51]. - Recommended companies in the beef sector include Bright Dairy, Fucheng Co., and several Hong Kong-listed firms such as Modern Farming and China Shengmu [18][51]. Poultry Sector - The white chicken market is entering a peak demand season, with prices expected to rise due to reduced production capacity and increased demand [19][4]. - The supply of white feather chicken breeding stock is projected to decline, supporting a price increase for meat chickens in 2026 [19][4]. - Recommended companies in the poultry sector include Shennong Development and Hefeng Co. [19][4]. Seed Industry - The grain price cycle is at a low point, with expectations for upward trends supported by food security policies and the acceleration of genetically modified seed commercialization [19][5]. - Recommended companies in the seed industry include Dabeinong Technology, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seeds [19][5]. Pet Industry - The pet food export volume in China increased by 7.55% year-on-year from January to September 2025, indicating strong growth in the sector [19][7]. - Domestic pet consumption is expected to continue growing, driven by emotional value and increasing market share of domestic brands [19][7]. - Recommended companies in the pet sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [19][7].

Market Overview - The feed sector experienced a decline of 0.91% on November 12, with Bangji Technology leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4000.14, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13240.62, down 0.36% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Jin Xin Nong (002548) saw a closing price of 5.69, with an increase of 3.27% and a trading volume of 486,900 shares, totaling a transaction value of 273 million yuan [1] - Bangji Technology (603151) closed at 19.91, down 7.18%, with a trading volume of 99,600 shares and a transaction value of 200 million yuan [2] - Aonong Biological (603363) closed at 5.44, down 6.21%, with a trading volume of 1,185,900 shares and a transaction value of 661 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The feed sector experienced a net outflow of 204 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 201 million yuan [2] - The main funds showed a negative net flow for several stocks, including Jin Xin Nong with a net outflow of 40.4 million yuan [3] - Retail investors contributed positively to stocks like Petty Co. (300673), which had a net inflow of 24.3 million yuan from retail investors despite a main fund outflow of 8.1 million yuan [3]

Core Insights - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates a significant decline in the average selling price of live pigs in October 2025, with a decrease of 10.74% month-on-month and 33.56% year-on-year, suggesting ongoing pressure on pig prices in the near future [1] - The slaughter volume in October 2025 was 5.0352 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.40% and a year-on-year increase of 9.55%, indicating a temporary oversupply situation [1] - The report highlights that the proportion of large pigs being sold is lower than in the same period in 2024, while the inventory of large pigs is increasing, suggesting a potential easing of supply in the future [1] Industry Overview - The gross white price difference as of November 6, 2025, was 4.18 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.08 yuan/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 0.84 yuan/kg, indicating mixed market conditions [2] - The national frozen product inventory rate was reported at 20.03%, up 4.06 percentage points year-on-year, which may exert downward pressure on future pig prices due to high inventory levels [2] - In October 2025, the industry faced significant losses, with self-breeding and self-raising operations losing 167.97 yuan per head, reflecting a worsening financial situation for producers [3] - The breeding stock decreased by 0.77% month-on-month as of November 7, 2025, indicating a trend of reduction in breeding capacity [3] Company Performance - In October 2025, 12 listed pig companies reported a total of 16.9469 million heads sold, a year-on-year increase of 29.29%, with individual companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs showing significant increases in their sales volumes [4] - The average selling price for major listed pig companies fell month-on-month, with prices for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs decreasing by 10.3% and 12.2% respectively [5] - The average weight of pigs sold by major companies also saw a decline, with Dabeinong reporting an average weight of 110.1 kg per head, down 18.8 kg from the previous month [4]

Core Insights - Dabeinong's stock increased by 1.67% on November 11, with a trading volume of 575 million yuan [1] - The company reported a net profit growth of 92.56% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2025 [2] Financing and Trading Activity - On November 11, Dabeinong had a financing buy-in of 82.04 million yuan and a net financing buy of 3.39 million yuan, with a total financing balance of 943 million yuan [1] - The financing balance represents 5.07% of the circulating market value and is above the 80th percentile of the past year [1] - Dabeinong's short selling activity included a repayment of 17,200 shares and a sale of 83,900 shares, with a short selling balance of 13.06 million yuan, also above the 90th percentile of the past year [1] Company Overview - Dabeinong was established on October 18, 1994, and listed on April 9, 2010, focusing on feed production, sales, and crop seed cultivation [1] - The company's revenue composition includes 63.42% from feed products, 25.08% from pig farming products, and smaller contributions from other agricultural products [1] Shareholder and Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, Dabeinong had 227,400 shareholders, a decrease of 5.84% from the previous period [2] - The top institutional shareholder is Guotai CSI Livestock Breeding ETF, holding 76.99 million shares, an increase of 27.76 million shares [2] - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the fifth-largest shareholder, with 51.63 million shares, an increase of 14.93 million shares [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing increasing supply pressure of live pigs as the year-end approaches, with low prices continuing to decline. In October 2025, the national average selling price of live pigs was 11.69 yuan/kg, down 10.74% month-on-month and 33.56% year-on-year. The slaughter volume in October was 5.0352 million heads, up 10.40% month-on-month and 9.55% year-on-year. The actual output in October exceeded the planned output by 5.70%, but the planned output for November is expected to decrease by 3.27% compared to October [3][14][24] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The supply pressure of live pigs is gradually accumulating as the year-end approaches, with low prices continuing to decline. The average selling price in October 2025 was 11.69 yuan/kg, reflecting a significant decrease [3][14] - The slaughter volume in October was 5.0352 million heads, indicating a month-on-month increase of 10.40% and a year-on-year increase of 9.55% [3][14] Market Dynamics - The proportion of large pigs (over 150kg) in the slaughter structure was 4.89%, which is lower than the same period in 2024. The stock of large pigs is expected to increase, leading to a more relaxed supply in the future [4][18] - The winter pork consumption is expected to improve, which may drive the price difference between lean and fatty pork. However, the high inventory rate of frozen products may suppress future prices [4][19][23] Financial Performance - In October, the industry faced deepening losses, with self-breeding losses reaching 167.97 yuan per head. The breeding stock decreased by 0.77% month-on-month [5][24] - The average selling price of major listed pig companies decreased month-on-month, with prices ranging from 10.97 to 11.87 yuan/kg, reflecting declines of 9.9% to 13.9% [6][7][34]

Market Overview - The feed sector experienced a slight decline of 0.06% on November 11, with Bangji Technology leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4002.76, down 0.39%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13289.0, down 1.03% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Aonong Biological (603363) saw a price increase of 3.57%, closing at 5.80, with a trading volume of 1.1851 million shares and a transaction value of 678 million [1] - Other notable gainers included: - Lusi Co., Ltd. (920419) up 3.17% to 6161, with a transaction value of 72.3745 million [1] - Petty Co., Ltd. (300673) up 3.01% to 17.77, with a transaction value of 190 million [1] - Conversely, Bangji Technology (603151) experienced a significant decline of 7.54%, closing at 21.45, with a transaction value of 227 million [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The feed sector saw a net inflow of 83.9793 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 19.3061 million [2] - However, speculative funds recorded a net outflow of 103 million [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Stocks - Major net inflows were observed in: - Dabeinong (002385) with a net inflow of 66.7768 million, accounting for 11.62% of the total [3] - Aonong Biological (603363) with a net inflow of 34.3712 million, representing 5.07% [3] - Notable net outflows included: - Tianma Technology (603668) with a net outflow of 39.1375 million, representing 7.41% [3] - Jinxinnong (002548) with a net outflow of 9.5525 million, accounting for 5.80% [3]