证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 01 07 年 月 日 鸿路钢构（002541.SZ） Q4 产量符合预期，25 年业绩有望展现较强弹性 24Q4 产量同比基本持平符合预期，后续订单与产量有望释放向上弹性。 产量方面，2024 年公司实现钢结构产量 451 万吨，同增 0.5%，其中 Q4 单季 126 万吨，同增 0.3%，符合预期，增幅较小主因：1）2024 年底公 司预计产能约 520 万吨，同比小幅增长 20 万吨（4%）；2）2024 年以来 公司持续在产线中铺设智能焊接机器人，由于铺设过程中需要短暂停产， 因此对产能释放有所影响。预计 2025 年公司仍将继续大量铺设焊接机器 人，但随着已铺设焊接机器人数量持续增长，公司产能有望明显提升（机 器人可 7*24 小时支持工厂满负荷长效生产，同面积厂房产能大幅提升， 打破设计产能上限），并抵消铺设新机器人过程中的停产损耗，实现产量 的规模化增长。订单方面，2024Q4 公司新签销售合同 63.7 亿元（全部为 材料订单），同降 6.2%，考虑到 Q4 钢价同比下降较大（热轧板卷日均价 3568 元/吨，同降约 10.3% ...

证券代码:002541 证券简称:鸿路钢构 公告编号:2025-002 债券代码:128134 债券简称:鸿路转债 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司 2024 年第四季度可转换公司债券转股情况的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： | 证券代码：002541 | | | 证券简称：鸿路钢构 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：128134 | | | 债券简称：鸿路转债 | | | | | | | | | 转股价格：人民币 | | 32.96 | 元/股 | | | | | | | | | 转股期限：2021 | 年 | 4 月 | 15 | 日至 | 2026 | 年 | 10 | 月 | 8 | 日 | 根据《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》、《深圳证券交易所可转换公司债券 业务实施细则》的有关规定，安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司（以下简称 "公司"）现将 2024 年第四季度可转换 ...

| 证券代码：002541 | 证券简称：鸿路钢构 公告编号：2024-104 | | --- | --- | | 债券代码：128134 | 债券简称：鸿路转债 | 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司 关于公司全资子公司获得政府补助的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、获得补助的基本情况 2、根据《企业会计准则第 16 号—政府补助》等相关规定，上述补助金额与收益相 关的政府补助资金共计 3396.71 万元。 公司本次收到政府补助将会增加 2024 年度利润总额 3396.71 万元，具体影响金 额及相关会计处理须以审计机构年度审计确认后的结果为准，请广大投资者注意投 资风险。 三、备查文件 1、有关奖励补助的政府文件； 2、收款凭证。 近日，安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司全资子公司获得政府补助基本情况 见下表： | | | | 项目 | | 补助 | 补助金额 | 补助 | 是否与 日常经 | 是否 有可 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Company Performance and Production Capacity - The company has ten production bases under construction or completed, with an expected steel structure product capacity of 5.2 million tons by the end of 2024 [2] - The company is currently experiencing normal production operations with saturated orders [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The company has established a dedicated smart manufacturing R&D team, focusing on various intelligent manufacturing technologies, including laser cutting machines and welding robots [2] - The benefits of smart manufacturing are expected to significantly improve product quality and reduce production costs in the long term, although short-term effects may not be immediately visible [2] Group 3: Financial Instruments and Market Strategy - The company issued convertible bonds worth 1.88 billion yuan, with plans to enhance performance and monitor related matters through company announcements [2] - The company is gradually increasing its indirect export business and will consider expanding overseas operations based on market conditions [2] Group 4: Research and Development - The company’s self-developed welding robots have been sold in small quantities, primarily for internal use, with future sales planned based on business development and application scenarios [2]

| 证券代码:002541 | 证券简称:鸿路钢构 | 公告编号:2024-101 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码:128134 | 债券简称:鸿路转债 | | 安徽鸿路钢结构(集团)股份有限公司 关于不向下修正"鸿路转债"转股价格的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示 4、转股期限：2021 年 4 月 15 日至 2026 年 10 月 8 日 5、自 2024 年 11 月 27 日至 2024 年 12 月 17 日期间，公司股票已有十五个 交易日的收盘价低于当期转股价格的 85%（即 32.44 元/股）的情形，已触发"鸿 路转债"转股价格的向下修正条款。 6、2024 年 12 月 17 日，公司召开第六届董事会第十七次会议，审议通过了 《关于暂不向下修正"鸿路转债"转股价格的议案》，公司董事会决定本次不向 下修正"鸿路转债"转股价格。自本次董事会审议通过后的次一交易日（即 2024 年 12 月 18 日）重新起算，若再次触发"鸿路转债"转股价格向下修正条款，届 时公司董事会将再次召开会议决定是 ...

| 证券代码：002541 | 证券简称：鸿路钢构 | 公告编号：2024-103 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：128134 | 债券简称：鸿路转债 | | 2、根据《企业会计准则第 16 号—政府补助》等相关规定，上述补助金额与收益相 关的政府补助资金共计 2367 万元。 公司本次收到政府补助将会增加 2024 年度利润总额 2367 万元，具体影响金额 及相关会计处理须以审计机构年度审计确认后的结果为准，请广大投资者注意投资 风险。 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司 关于公司全资子公司获得政府补助的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、获得补助的基本情况 近日，安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司全资子公司获得政府补助基本情况 见下表： | | | | 项目 | | 补助 | 补助金额 | 补助 | 是否与 日常经 | 是否 有可 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序 | 获得补 | 发放主 | 名称 | 获 ...

| 证券代码：002541 | 证券简称：鸿路钢构 | 公告编号：2024-102 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：128134 | 债券简称：鸿路转债 | | 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司 第六届董事会第十七次会议决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、董事会会议召开情况 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司（下称"公司"）第六届董事会第十七次会议 于 2024 年 12 月 6 日以送达方式发出，并于 2024 年 12 月 17 日在公司会议室以现场的方 式召开。会议应出席董事 5 人，实际出席董事 5 人，会议由董事长万胜平先生主持，公司 全体监事、高级管理人员列席了会议。本次会议的召集、召开符合《公司法》和《公司章 程》的有关规定，出席会议的董事以书面表决的方式通过了以下决议，决议合法有效。 二、董事会会议审议情况 会议经过审议并表决，形成决议如下： 一、会议以 5 票同意，0 票反对，0 票弃权，审议通过了《关于暂不向下修正"鸿路转债" 转股价格的议案》。 《关于暂不向下修正"鸿路转债"转股价格的 ...

| 证券代码：002541 | 证券简称：鸿路钢构 | 公告编号：2024-100 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：128134 | 债券简称：鸿路转债 | | 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司 关于"鸿路转债"回售结果的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 一、本次可转换公司债券回售的公告情况 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）根据《深圳 证券交易所股票上市规则》《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 15 号— —可转换公司债券》等法律法规的有关规定以及《安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份 有限公司公开发行可转换公司债券募集说明书》的相关约定，公司分别于 2024 年 11 月 20 日、2024 年 11 月 21 日、2024 年 11 月 22 日、2024 年 11 月 23 日、 2024 年 11 月 26 日、2024 年 11 月 27 日、2024 年 11 月 28 日、2024 年 11 月 29 日、2024 年 12 月 2 日、2024 年 12 月 3 日、2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a forecasted net profit of 1.24 billion, 1.30 billion, and 1.65 billion yuan for 2024-2026 respectively [4][58]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery and the significant potential for exports, particularly in the context of the company's smart transformation initiatives [2][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from a rebound in domestic demand, as evidenced by positive growth in industrial land transactions since July 2024, indicating a turning point in demand [3][10]. - The export potential is bolstered by tax advantages, with steel structure products enjoying a 13% export tax rebate, unlike steel materials which face anti-dumping duties in some markets [3][21][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Demand Turning Point - The report identifies a turning point in domestic demand, with industrial and commercial land transaction indicators showing positive growth since July 2024 [3][10]. - The monthly transaction area for industrial land has shown several months of year-on-year positive growth, suggesting a recovery in downstream demand [9][10]. 2. Domestic Steel Structure Export Price Advantage - The report highlights that domestic steel structure exports have a price advantage due to lower steel prices in China compared to other countries, with China's hot-rolled coil export price at 522 USD/ton as of Q3 2024 [21][24]. - Steel structure products benefit from a pricing mechanism based on "material cost + processing fee," with the company's selling price in 2023 at 5,530.1 yuan per ton and a gross margin of 11.1% [21][24]. 3. Significant Overseas Demand Potential - The report notes that China's steel structure exports have been steadily increasing, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.9% from 2012 to 2023, reaching 10.51 million tons in 2023 [43][50]. - The overseas market for steel structures is estimated to be around 110 million tons, indicating substantial demand potential [43][50]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report provides profit forecasts for the company, projecting revenues of 24.5 billion, 26.2 billion, and 29.3 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 4.8%, 5.3%, and 26.55% [58][59]. - The report emphasizes the importance of smart transformation in enhancing production capacity and reducing costs, which will strengthen the company's competitive advantage [4][58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a forecasted net profit of 1.24 billion, 1.30 billion, and 1.65 billion yuan for 2024-2026 respectively [4][58]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery and the significant potential for exports, particularly in the context of the company's smart transformation initiatives [2][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from a rebound in domestic demand, as indicated by positive growth in industrial land transactions since July 2024 [3][10]. - The report highlights the competitive advantages of the company's steel structure products in the export market, including tax benefits and lower pricing compared to global competitors [21][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Demand Recovery - The report identifies a turning point in domestic demand for steel structures, supported by positive growth in industrial and commercial land transactions [3][10]. - The monthly transaction area for industrial land has shown positive year-on-year growth since July 2024, indicating a recovery in downstream demand [9][10]. 2. Export Price Advantages - The company enjoys a 13% export tax rebate on steel structure products, which is not available for raw steel exports, enhancing its competitiveness [21][29]. - China's steel prices are comparatively lower than those of Japan and South Korea, providing a pricing advantage in the global market [21][24]. 3. Overseas Demand Potential - The report notes that China's steel structure exports have been steadily increasing, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.9% from 2012 to 2023 [43][50]. - The global demand for steel structures is estimated to be around 110 million tons, similar to domestic consumption levels, indicating significant export opportunities [43][50]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects revenue growth from 19.85 billion yuan in 2022 to 29.33 billion yuan in 2026, with a net profit increase from 1.16 billion yuan in 2022 to 1.65 billion yuan in 2026 [59]. - The report maintains a focus on the importance of smart transformation in enhancing production capacity and reducing costs, which will strengthen the company's competitive position [4][58].