爱建证券近日发布锂电行业跟踪：2025年1-12月，国内电池和磷酸铁锂正极材料产量显著高于2024年同 期。2025年12月，国内电池产量201.7GWh，同比增长约62%，环比增长约14%；2025年12月，国内磷 酸铁锂正极材料产量26.93万吨，同比增长32.48%，环比增长0.16%，产能利用率为59.85%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 投资建议：1)2025年1-12月，国内电池和磷酸铁锂正极材料产量高于2024年同期，碳酸锂和储能电芯价 格呈现波动上涨态势，国内电池月度装车量和新型储能招标容量环比增长，关注动力电池与储能协同布 局、海外布局领先的电芯核心企业；2)锂电需求提升，关注锂电材料相关企业；3)建议关注宁德时代 （300750）(300750.SZ)、亿纬锂能（300014）(300014.SZ)、欣旺达（300207）(300207.SZ)、湖南裕能 （301358）(301358.SZ)、天赐材料（002709）(002709.SZ)、多氟多（002407）(002407.SZ)。 风险提示：1)原材料价格波动；2)全球需求不及预期；3)行业竞争加剧。(爱建证券朱攀,陆嘉怡) ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4120.10 points, above the annual line, with a change of 0.16% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 1,645.83 billion yuan [1] Stocks Above Annual Line - A total of 61 A-shares have surpassed the annual line today, with notable stocks showing significant deviation rates [1] - The stocks with the highest deviation rates include: - Huawi Design (华维设计) with a deviation rate of 24.42% - Hualing Co. (华岭股份) at 5.51% - Huilong Piston (汇隆活塞) at 4.81% [1] Detailed Stock Performance - The following table summarizes the performance of selected stocks that have crossed the annual line: - Huawi Design (华维设计): Today's change of 29.96%, turnover rate of 26.39%, annual line at 14.64 yuan, latest price at 18.22 yuan [1] - Hualing Co. (华岭股份): Today's change of 12.70%, turnover rate of 9.21%, annual line at 24.90 yuan, latest price at 26.27 yuan [1] - Huilong Piston (汇隆活塞): Today's change of 18.06%, turnover rate of 13.30%, annual line at 9.86 yuan, latest price at 10.33 yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include: - Wuhan Fangu (武汉凡谷) with a deviation rate of 4.17% - Meirui New Materials (美瑞新材) with a deviation rate of 3.81% [1] Additional Stocks with Minor Deviations - Stocks with smaller deviation rates that have just crossed the annual line include: - Gongdong Medical (拱东医疗) and Chongqing Gas (重庆燃气) [1] - The performance of these stocks indicates a cautious upward trend in the market [1]

2025-2026年磷酸铁锂新扩产落地的产能将超过200万吨，届时全球磷酸铁锂产能将逼近900万吨，磷酸 铁锂行业仍难摆脱供过于求格局，过剩主要集中在二、三代材料，而四代高端材料依旧短缺。在企业抢 出口、新能源汽车及储能政策利好的共同驱动下，乐观估计2026年中国磷酸铁锂正极材料总产量将达 580万吨，同比增长约53%。 2026年国内磷酸铁锂材料新扩产的产线大多做的是更高端的产品，而非低端产品的简单复制，行业竞争 格局正呈现"头部集中、中小出清"的态势。湖南裕能、德方纳米、龙蟠科技等龙头企业纷纷加码高压 实、长循环等高端产品布局。 当前，国内磷酸铁锂行业面临结构性过剩，但高性能产品需求旺盛。未来企业能否在磷酸铁锂行业立 足，关键取决于两大核心能力：一是高端差异化产品的研发与生产能力，二是大规模生产下的产品一致 性控制能力。 图2 2025年我国磷酸铁锂材料主要企业产量占比 图3 我国磷酸铁锂正极材料出口量(吨) 近一年来，国内磷酸铁锂行业出现了一轮总额超2400亿元的巨额订单锁定潮，涉及宁德时代、楚能新能 源、亿纬锂能、欣旺达、比亚迪等多个头部电池厂商，其中宁德时代是最大买家，其采购金额占总额的 绝大部分。 ...

Core Insights - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) market is experiencing significant growth, with major battery manufacturers aggressively purchasing LFP materials [1] - The total procurement of LFP materials by companies such as CATL, BYD, EVE Energy, Sunwoda, and Chuangneng New Energy has reached 6 million tons, with an order value exceeding 240 billion yuan [1] - There is a high demand for mid-to-high-end LFP products, leading to full-capacity operations at various companies including Longpan Technology, Wanrun New Energy, Fulian Precision, Fengyuan Co., and Rongbai Technology [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the battery sector under pressure, as evidenced by the decline of the Battery 50 ETF (159796) by 2.55% after four consecutive days of gains, with a trading volume of 322 million yuan [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Battery 50 ETF (159796) saw most of its constituent stocks decline, with significant drops including Sunshine Power down over 5%, and others like Xian Dao Intelligent and Multi-Fluorine down over 4% [3]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the Battery 50 ETF include major players such as Sunshine Power and Ningde Times, with varying declines in their stock prices [4]. Group 2: Project Announcements - On January 19, China Energy Construction announced the procurement results for a 153 MW battery storage project in South Africa, with Sunshine Power winning the bid for a total project capacity of 742.22 MWh and a contract value of 528 million yuan (approximately 0.86 yuan/Wh) [5]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The battery sector is expected to recover due to multiple catalysts, including a surge in demand for energy storage, rising material prices, and accelerated solid-state battery technology [6]. - Global demand for large-scale energy storage is projected to exceed expectations, with a forecasted growth of over 60% by 2026, driven by various market factors including the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act [7]. - Prices of upstream raw materials have generally increased, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising by 64.4% to 157,000 yuan/ton, and lithium hydroxide up by 77.51% to 150,000 yuan/ton as of January 16, 2026 [8]. Group 4: Technological Developments - The solid-state battery sector is witnessing rapid advancements, with significant policy support and market catalysts enhancing industry prospects [9]. - Major automotive manufacturers are accelerating the integration of solid-state batteries, with companies like FAW Hongqi and GAC Group making substantial progress towards mass production by 2027 [9]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The Battery 50 ETF (159796) is positioned to benefit significantly from the energy storage sector, with a storage component of 18.7%, and a solid-state battery component of 45%, indicating strong growth potential [10]. - The ETF's focus on energy storage and power batteries, along with its low management fee of 0.15% per year, makes it an attractive investment option for capturing opportunities in the battery sector [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the advancements and production timelines of solid-state batteries from various companies, highlighting the competitive landscape and technological progress leading up to 2026 and beyond [4]. Group 1: Company Developments - CATL launched the world's first sulfide solid-state battery pilot line in Hefei in May 2025, achieving an energy density of 450Wh/kg, with plans to expand production capacity to 50GWh by 2026 [6]. - Guoxuan High-Tech introduced its "Guan" quasi-solid-state square aluminum shell cell with an energy density greater than 300Wh/kg and initiated a pilot line with a 90% yield rate in May 2025 [8]. - EVE Energy's solid-state battery, "Longquan No. 2," achieved an energy density of 300Wh/kg and is aimed at high-end applications like humanoid robots and low-altitude aircraft [8]. - Aoxin Technology plans to launch its polymer solid-state battery with an energy density of 400Wh/kg by the end of 2025, targeting high-end new energy vehicles [8]. - Ganfeng Lithium announced the mass production of lithium sulfide, completing the last link in the solid-state battery ecosystem, with plans to launch solid-state batteries by the end of 2025 [9]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The solid-state battery industry is expected to enter a critical year in 2026, with many companies racing to achieve mass production [4]. - The article outlines the competitive landscape, with over 30 companies making significant strides in solid-state battery technology, indicating a robust growth trajectory in the sector [4]. - The anticipated commercialization of solid-state batteries is projected for around 2030, as supply chains mature and production processes are refined [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent recall of Volvo's electric vehicle EX30 due to battery safety issues has raised concerns about the responsibility of the battery supplier, A123, and has compounded existing sales pressures on Volvo [2][3][5]. Group 1: Volvo's Recall and Sales Performance - Volvo has initiated a global recall of its EX30 electric model due to high-voltage battery overheating risks, affecting markets including the US, Canada, South Africa, and Australia [2]. - In the UK, 10,440 units of the EX30 are confirmed to be affected, covering models from 2024 to 2026 [2]. - Volvo's global sales in 2024 are projected at 763,400 units, an 8% increase year-on-year, but sales in China, its largest market, have dropped to 156,400 units, the lowest in five years [4]. Group 2: Financial Impact and Battery Supplier Issues - In Q3 2023, Volvo's global sales fell to 160,500 units, a 7% year-on-year decline, with revenues of 86.4 billion Swedish Krona, down 6% [5]. - The recall has sparked controversy over battery supply responsibilities, with reports indicating that the problematic battery cells were produced by a joint venture involving A123 [5][6]. - A123's chairman stated that the battery packs were supplied through a different factory, distancing the company from direct responsibility for the issues [5]. Group 3: A123's Challenges and Market Position - A123 is facing significant challenges, including a recent lawsuit from Zeekr over battery quality issues, which has intensified scrutiny on the company's reliability [6][9]. - The company has seen a reduction in orders from key clients like Li Auto and Xiaomi, with the number of models supported by A123 for Li Auto dropping from 10 to 3 [9]. - A123's aggressive pricing strategy has led to declining profit margins, with a gross margin of only 9.77% in H1 2025, significantly lower than competitors [10]. Group 4: Financial Health and Future Outlook - A123 reported a loss of 1.87 billion Yuan in 2024, with cumulative losses exceeding 4.5 billion Yuan from 2023 to H1 2025 [10]. - The company's debt levels have risen sharply, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 67.62% and total liabilities reaching 67.9 billion Yuan [10]. - Concerns about ongoing litigation and financial losses may hinder A123's plans for an IPO in Hong Kong, which was anticipated for 2026 [10].

Core Insights - The company, XWANDA, is focusing on a dual-driven strategy of "hybrid on the left, pure electric on the right" to empower automotive companies in their transition to electric vehicles, showcasing its precise understanding of market demands and technological innovation [1][3]. Market Analysis - The global electric vehicle market exhibits differentiated characteristics, with the domestic market seeing a rise in pure electric vehicles due to improved charging infrastructure, while the overseas market, particularly Europe, is experiencing over 40% growth in hybrid models due to Chinese companies expanding internationally [3]. - In China, the market has entered a late-stage mass adoption phase, shifting user demands from policy-driven and cost-effective solutions to longer range, convenient charging, and lifecycle safety, necessitating a multi-dimensional balance in battery products [3]. Product Strategy - XWANDA has developed three platform systems: Xingchi, Xingyao, and Xinghuan, catering to various vehicle types including economical, high-end, and PHEV/BEV cylindrical cells, thus achieving comprehensive coverage across all application scenarios [3]. - The company’s ultra-fast charging technology leads the pure electric vehicle sector, with the latest version of its battery achieving a peak charging rate of 15C and a peak charging power exceeding 1.4 MW, allowing for a 20% SOC recharge in just one minute [4]. Hybrid Solutions - In the hybrid sector, XWANDA is targeting a projected market of 10 million HEVs by 2030, offering high-power battery solutions with significant performance advantages, including a 40% market share in Europe [5]. - The company’s hybrid batteries utilize fast charging technology, achieving a peak charging rate of 4-8C and covering ranges of 200-500 kilometers, with specific solutions designed for A00 to A-class vehicles [5]. Technological Innovation - XWANDA emphasizes technological innovation and safety as core competitive advantages, utilizing AI for battery development and management, and implementing rigorous testing standards to ensure safety and reliability [6]. - The company has successfully equipped nearly 2 million HEV products, with significant partnerships with major automotive brands, demonstrating the strength of its product offerings [6]. Future Outlook - XWANDA aims to continue leveraging its ultra-fast charging technology across its product lines, providing solutions for both hybrid and pure electric vehicles, thereby contributing to the high-quality development of the electric vehicle industry globally [6].

Core Viewpoint - Technological innovation is a crucial driving force for the sustainable development of the energy storage industry, impacting various sectors such as large-scale battery cells, long-duration energy storage, and grid-connected energy storage [2]. Group 1: Technological Innovation in Energy Storage - China's investment in energy storage technology and talent has been steadily increasing, with R&D spending expected to reach nearly 100 billion yuan by 2025, nearly doubling from five years ago [2]. - The number of R&D personnel has surpassed 200,000, and the number of patents has exceeded 100,000, indicating a growing foundation and strength in technological innovation [2]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by intense price wars, which may hinder R&D investments and innovation momentum in the technology sector [2]. Group 2: Future Competitiveness of Enterprises - The 24潮产业研究院 (TTIR) emphasizes that only companies with global layout capabilities, strong market expansion, financial health, and significant brand influence will have the potential for sustainable growth [3]. - Starting in 2026, TTIR will release a ranking of the top 10 Chinese energy storage companies based on their technological innovation capabilities across seven primary dimensions and 20 secondary dimensions [3]. Group 3: Ranking of Technological Innovation - The ranking will assess companies based on R&D investment, foundational strength, innovation outcomes, commercial promotion capabilities, product competitiveness, achievements, and leading layouts [4]. - The scoring breakdown for the ranking includes 45% for R&D investment, 15% for foundational strength, 10% for innovation outcomes, and various other dimensions [4]. Group 4: Top 10 Energy Storage Companies by Innovation - The top-ranked companies for technological innovation include BYD, CATL, and Sungrow, with scores reflecting their R&D investment, innovation outcomes, and product competitiveness [7]. - BYD scored 87.49, followed by CATL with 81.90, and Sungrow with 81.00, showcasing their leadership in the energy storage sector [7]. Group 5: Detailed Scoring Metrics - The detailed scoring metrics for R&D investment show that BYD leads with a score of 95.42, while CATL and Sungrow follow with scores of 83.12 and 78.33, respectively [9]. - In terms of innovation outcomes, Sungrow leads with a score of 86.88, followed closely by BYD and CATL [11]. - The foundational strength scores indicate that Sungrow also leads in R&D personnel metrics, highlighting its commitment to innovation [13].

Core Viewpoint - The company Xiwanda is facing significant challenges due to safety issues with its battery products, leading to recalls and legal claims from partners, which may impact its financial performance and market reputation [1][6][8]. Group 1: Battery Safety Issues - Volvo has initiated a recall of its EX30 model due to potential overheating risks in high-voltage batteries, which are produced by a joint venture between Xiwanda and Geely [3][4]. - The recall affects multiple markets, with specific numbers including 40 vehicles in the U.S. and 2,815 in Australia, highlighting the scale of the issue [4]. - Xiwanda has not clearly defined its responsibility in the recall and has not disclosed potential impacts on its battery business [5][6]. Group 2: Legal Challenges - Xiwanda is facing a lawsuit from Geely's subsidiary, Weirui Electric Vehicle Technology, claiming damages of 2.314 billion yuan due to quality issues with battery cells delivered between June 2021 and December 2023 [6][8]. - The lawsuit is linked to previous quality complaints, including a situation where Zeekr, a Geely brand, offered free battery replacements to customers due to performance issues [7]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Position - Xiwanda's revenue from its automotive battery business has grown rapidly, from 428 million yuan in 2020 to 151.39 billion yuan in 2024, increasing its share of total revenue from less than 3% to 27.02% [8][9]. - Despite this growth, the gross margin for Xiwanda's electric vehicle batteries is only 9.77%, significantly lower than competitors like CATL and EVE Energy, which have margins of 22.41% and 17.6%, respectively [9]. - The company reported a net loss of 877 million yuan in the first half of 2025, despite generating 7.392 billion yuan in revenue from its battery segment [9].