Labor Market - Initial Jobless Claims for last week were reported at 222K, slightly above estimates but indicating a healthy labor market, with claims remaining between 215K and 225K since March [1] - Continuing Claims decreased to 1.841 million, down from a revised 1.878 million, showing positive trends in long-term jobless claims [2] Durable Goods Orders - Durable Goods Orders for March increased by 9.2%, significantly surpassing the expected 1.6%, marking the best performance since July of the previous year [3] - Excluding transportation, the durable goods orders showed no growth at 0.0%, below the anticipated 0.3% [3] - Non-defense orders excluding aircraft met expectations with a growth of 0.1% [3] Q1 Earnings Reports - PepsiCo (PEP) reported earnings of $1.48 per share, missing consensus by 2 cents, while revenues of $17.92 billion exceeded estimates by 0.94% [4] - Procter & Gamble (PG) met earnings expectations with $1.54 per share but missed revenue expectations at $19.78 billion, down from $20.2 billion a year ago [5] - American Airlines (AAL) reported a loss of $0.59 per share, better than the expected loss of $0.69, but revenues were slightly lower at $12.52 billion [6] - Bristol Myers-Squibb (BMY) exceeded earnings expectations with $1.80 per share and revenues of $11.2 billion, surpassing estimates by 4.3% [7] - Comcast (CMCSA) reported earnings of $1.09 per share, beating expectations, and revenues of $29.89 billion, although still below the previous year's $30.06 billion [8] Market Expectations - Upcoming Existing Home Sales data is anticipated, following a positive surprise in New Home Sales, with expectations set at 4.13 million units, down from 4.26 million in February [9] - A significant number of Q1 earnings reports are expected after market close, including major companies like Alphabet (GOOGL), Intel (INTC), and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) [10]

Financial Performance - First-quarter revenue reached $12.6 billion[7] - The company generated $2.5 billion in first-quarter operating cash flow and $1.7 billion in first-quarter free cash flow[7] - American Airlines ended Q1 2025 with $10.8 billion in total available liquidity[7] - Spend on co-branded credit cards increased by 8% in Q1 2025[25] Profitability Metrics (Non-GAAP) - First-quarter non-GAAP net loss was ($386) million, or ($0.59) per diluted share[8] - Pre-tax loss excluding net special items was ($530) million[8] - Adjusted EBITDAR for the first quarter was $646 million, representing a 5.1% margin[41] Capital Expenditure and Fleet - Total aircraft Capex is projected to be approximately $1.9 billion in 2025[10] - Average annual aircraft Capex is estimated to be ~$2-$2.5 billion from 2025E-2029E[10] Commercial Updates - Indirect revenue channels contributed over $14 billion in annual revenue in 2023[19] - The company expects approximately 2 percentage points sequential improvement in indirect revenue share in Q2 2025[19] Outlook - Q2 2025 total revenue is expected to be ~ (2%) to +1% compared to 2024[26]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - American Airlines Group reported a first quarter GAAP net loss of $473 million, with an adjusted loss of $386 million, or $0.59 per diluted share [30] - First quarter revenue was $12.6 billion, down 0.2% year over year, while unit revenue increased by 0.7% year over year [31] - First quarter unit cost excluding fuel and net special items was up 7.8% year over year [31] - The company ended the first quarter with $10.8 billion in total available liquidity and produced free cash flow of $1.7 billion during the quarter [34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic passenger RASM decreased by 0.7% year over year, while premium revenue increased by 3% year over year [16][31] - Long-haul international passenger RASM led the way, with Atlantic passenger RASM up 10.5% and Pacific passenger RASM up 4.9% [14][15] - Managed business revenue was up 8% year over year, with specific strength noted in the financial and professional services sectors [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced strong demand for international travel from the US, particularly in the Atlantic and Pacific regions [15] - Short-haul Latin passenger RASM increased year over year for the first time in over a year, indicating a recovery in that market [15] - The company noted significant weakness in demand from indirect channels, particularly among price-sensitive customers [58] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing its partnership with Citi, growing its Advantage loyalty program, and improving customer experience [13] - American Airlines Group aims to deliver sustainable free cash flow and strengthen its balance sheet while navigating the current economic environment [10][12] - The company is committed to transforming customer experience and has established a new customer experience organization to improve all aspects of the customer journey [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged a challenging economic environment impacting demand and has withdrawn its full-year outlook due to uncertainty [9] - Despite the challenges, management expects to deliver a profitable year and produce positive free cash flow if current demand trends continue [10] - The company remains cautious about capacity deployment and plans to adjust based on demand and competitive conditions [21] Other Important Information - The company completed its fleet renewal with low aircraft CapEx requirements for the remainder of the decade [11] - American Airlines Group has the youngest fleet among US network carriers and is committed to improving customer experience through various initiatives [23][24] - The company is on track to open its newest flagship lounge in Philadelphia in May, further enhancing its premium offerings [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Capacity moderation in light of demand weakness - Management indicated that they have set their capacity plan for the summer with a growth expectation of 2% to 4% [47] - There is a negative bias towards future capacity adjustments based on demand trends [48] Question: Corporate share recovery and yield expectations - Corporate share recovery is on track, and yields are expected to meet management's expectations [51] Question: Performance across international entities - Strength is noted across international operations, particularly in Europe and South America, with solid performance expected through the summer [54] Question: Domestic demand trends - Domestic main cabin demand is weak, particularly among price-sensitive customers, but premium bookings remain strong [58] Question: Impact of the tragic accident on bookings - The impact of the accident was significant in the first quarter but is not expected to affect future performance [128] Question: Corporate travel expectations - Business travel remains strong, with no significant pullback observed at this time [151]

Group 1 - U.S. spirit exports reached a record $2.4 billion in 2024, driven by tariff concerns and ongoing global trade disputes [1] - U.S. spirits exports to the EU surged by 39%, influenced by fears of a potential return of a 50% tariff on American whiskey imports in 2025 [2] - The lifting of retaliatory tariffs by the UK and EU has allowed U.S. spirits to recapture lost market share since 2018-2021 [2] Group 2 - Ongoing trade disputes unrelated to the spirits sector have created uncertainty, limiting sales growth for many U.S. distillers [2] - The threat of a 200% tariff on French Champagne and other EU spirits has diminished as U.S. and EU trade negotiations continue [3]

Labor Market - Initial Jobless Claims for last week were reported at 222K, slightly above estimates but indicating a healthy labor market, with claims remaining between 215K and 225K since March [1] - Continuing Claims decreased to 1.841 million, down from a revised 1.878 million the previous week, showing positive trends in long-term jobless claims [2] Durable Goods Orders - Durable Goods Orders for March increased by 9.2%, significantly exceeding the expected 1.6%, marking the best performance since July of the previous year [3] - Excluding transportation, the durable goods orders showed no growth at 0.0%, below the expected 0.3%, indicating potential concerns in enterprise spending [3] Q1 Earnings Reports - PepsiCo (PEP) reported earnings of $1.54 per share, meeting estimates, but revenues of $19.78 billion fell short by 2.75% compared to expectations [4] - American Airlines (AAL) reported a loss of -$0.59 per share, better than the expected -$0.69, but revenues were slightly lower at $12.52 billion [5] - Bristol Myers-Squibb (BMY) exceeded expectations with earnings of $1.80 per share and revenues of $11.2 billion, but the stock is trading lower [6] - Comcast (CMCSA) reported earnings of $1.09 per share, surpassing expectations, but revenues of $29.89 billion were below the previous year's $30.06 billion [7] Market Expectations - Upcoming reports include Existing Home Sales, with expectations set at 4.13 million units, down from 4.26 million in February [8] - The Q1 earnings season has shown mixed results, with companies facing challenges in forward guidance, including major firms like Alphabet and Intel expected to report [9]

American Airlines (AAL) reported $12.55 billion in revenue for the quarter ended March 2025, representing a year-over-year decline of 0.2%. EPS of -$0.59 for the same period compares to -$0.34 a year ago. The reported revenue represents a surprise of +0.23% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $12.52 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being -$0.69, the EPS surprise was +14.49%. While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to ...

Group 1 - American Airlines reported a quarterly loss of $0.59 per share, better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.69, but worse than a loss of $0.34 per share a year ago, indicating an earnings surprise of 14.49% [1] - The company posted revenues of $12.55 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.23%, although this represents a slight decline from year-ago revenues of $12.57 billion [2] - American Airlines has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times over the last four quarters and topped consensus revenue estimates three times during the same period [2] Group 2 - The stock has lost approximately 46.5% since the beginning of the year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500, which declined by 8.6% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is uncertain, with current consensus EPS estimates of $0.96 on $14.44 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $1.35 on $55.26 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year [7] - The Zacks Rank for American Airlines is currently 5 (Strong Sell), indicating expectations of underperformance in the near future [6] Group 3 - The Transportation - Airline industry, to which American Airlines belongs, is currently in the bottom 37% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a challenging environment for the stock [8] - Air Canada, another company in the same industry, is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0.34 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -70%, with revenues projected at $3.7 billion, down 4.5% from the previous year [9]

Group 1 - American Airlines (AAL.US) withdrew its 2025 earnings guidance due to economic uncertainty, joining other airlines like Delta Air Lines (DAL.US) and Frontier Airlines' parent company in doing so [1][2] - The company previously forecasted adjusted earnings per share between $1.70 and $2.70, with revenue growth of 4.5% to 7.5% for the year [1] - Economic pressures from tariff policies and government spending uncertainties are challenging consumer discretionary budgets, making it difficult for airlines to predict future travel demand [1][2] Group 2 - American Airlines reported a net loss of $473 million (or $0.72 per share) in Q1, widening from a loss of $312 million (or $0.48 per share) in the same period last year [2] - The adjusted loss per share was $0.59, which was better than Wall Street's expectation of a $0.69 loss, primarily due to strong performance in international routes and high-end travel demand [2] - For Q2, the company expects adjusted earnings per share between $0.50 and $1.00, significantly below analyst expectations of $0.96, with revenue projected to change between -2% and +1% year-over-year [2]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.47%, S&P 500 futures down 0.31%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.26% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.07%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.04%, France's CAC40 down 0.14%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.18% [2] - WTI crude oil increased by 1.25% to $63.05 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 1.03% to $66.80 per barrel [2] US Stock Market Insights - Jefferies highlights a critical point for the S&P 500 index at 5500, which needs to be breached to recover from a 19% drop since February's historical high [3] - Christopher Wood from Jefferies suggests that the golden era for US stocks is over, predicting further declines in US equities, bonds, and the dollar [5] Automotive Industry - Japanese automakers saw a surge in US sales in March, with Toyota's sales up 8% to 231,336 units, Honda's up 13%, and Nissan's up 10% [4] Company Earnings Reports - Merck's Q1 earnings exceeded expectations with sales of $15.5 billion, although they anticipate a $200 million loss due to tariffs by 2025 [9] - American Airlines withdrew its 2025 profit guidance, reporting a Q1 net loss of $473 million, worsened by tariff pressures and government spending uncertainties [9] - Procter & Gamble lowered its annual organic sales growth forecast from 3%-5% to 2% due to tariff pressures and fluctuating consumer demand [10] - Sanofi's Q1 earnings surpassed expectations, driven by strong demand for its Dupixent drug, with sales of €9.89 billion [10] - IBM reported Q1 sales of $14.5 billion, exceeding expectations, but concerns remain regarding the impact of tariffs and government spending cuts on business [11] - Texas Instruments provided a positive Q2 earnings outlook, with expected revenue between $4.17 billion and $4.53 billion, driven by improved demand in industrial and automotive sectors [12] Technology Sector - Google Chrome's potential market value is estimated at over $50 billion, according to competitors, amid ongoing antitrust scrutiny [13] - TSMC plans to begin production using A14 chip technology in 2028, aiming to maintain its leadership in the semiconductor industry [13]

An American Airlines plane on the tarmac at the Miami International Airport on Feb. 19, 2025 in Miami, Florida. American Airlines withdrew its 2025 financial guidance on Thursday, joining other carriers grappling with an uncertain outlook on the U.S. economy and weaker-than-expected leisure travel bookings this year. American said that stronger unit revenue was driven by strength in international bookings and premium cabins. American posted a $473 million loss for the first quarter, wider than the $312 mill ...